Evolution of precopulatory and post-copulatory strategies of inbreeding avoidance and associated polyandry.

Inbreeding depression is widely hypothesized to drive adaptive evolution of precopulatory and post-copulatory mechanisms of inbreeding avoidance, which in turn are hypothesized to affect evolution of polyandry (i.e. female multiple mating). However, surprisingly little theory or modelling critically examines selection for precopulatory or post-copulatory inbreeding avoidance, or both strategies, given evolutionary constraints and direct costs, or examines how evolution of inbreeding avoidance strategies might feed back to affect evolution of polyandry. Selection for post-copulatory inbreeding avoidance, but not for precopulatory inbreeding avoidance, requires polyandry, whereas interactions between precopulatory and post-copulatory inbreeding avoidance might cause functional redundancy (i.e. 'degeneracy') potentially generating complex evolutionary dynamics among inbreeding strategies and polyandry. We used individual-based modelling to quantify evolution of interacting precopulatory and post-copulatory inbreeding avoidance and associated polyandry given strong inbreeding depression and different evolutionary constraints and direct costs. We found that evolution of post-copulatory inbreeding avoidance increased selection for initially rare polyandry and that evolution of a costly inbreeding avoidance strategy became negligible over time given a lower-cost alternative strategy. Further, fixed precopulatory inbreeding avoidance often completely precluded evolution of polyandry and hence post-copulatory inbreeding avoidance, but fixed post-copulatory inbreeding avoidance did not preclude evolution of precopulatory inbreeding avoidance. Evolution of inbreeding avoidance phenotypes and associated polyandry is therefore affected by evolutionary feedbacks and degeneracy. All else being equal, evolution of precopulatory inbreeding avoidance and resulting low polyandry is more likely when post-copulatory inbreeding avoidance is precluded or costly, and evolution of post-copulatory inbreeding avoidance greatly facilitates evolution of costly polyandry.

Improving the forecast for biodiversity under climate change.

New biological models are incorporating the realistic processes underlying biological responses to climate change and other human-caused disturbances. However, these more realistic models require detailed information, which is lacking for most species on Earth. Current monitoring efforts mainly document changes in biodiversity, rather than collecting the mechanistic data needed to predict future changes. We describe and prioritize the biological information needed to inform more realistic projections of species' responses to climate change. We also highlight how trait-based approaches and adaptive modeling can leverage sparse data to make broader predictions. We outline a global effort to collect the data necessary to better understand, anticipate, and reduce the damaging effects of climate change on biodiversity.