Elimination of lymphatic filariasis as a public health problem in Malawi.

BACKGROUND: Lymphatic filariasis (LF) is a parasitic disease transmitted by mosquitoes, causing severe pain, disfiguring, and disabling clinical conditions such as lymphoedema and hydrocoele. LF is a global public health problem affecting 72 countries, primarily in Africa and Asia. Since 2000, the World Health Organization (WHO) has led the Global Programme to Eliminate Lymphatic Filariasis (GPELF) to support all endemic regions. This paper focuses on the achievements of the Malawi LF Elimination Programme between 2000 and 2020 to eliminate LF as a public health problem, making it the second sub-Saharan country to receive validation from the WHO. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The Malawi LF Programme addressed the widespread prevalence of LF infection and disease across the country, using the recommended WHO GPELF strategies and operational research initiatives in collaboration with key national and international partners. First, to stop the spread of infection (i.e., interrupt transmission) and reduce the circulating filarial antigen prevalence from as high as 74.4% to below the critical threshold of 1-2% prevalence, mass drug administration (MDA) using a two-drug regime was implemented at high coverage rates (>65%) of the total population, with supplementary interventions from other programmes (e.g., malaria vector control). The decline in prevalence was monitored and confirmed over time using several impact assessment and post-treatment surveillance tools including the standard sentinel site, spot check, and transmission assessment surveys and alternative integrated, hotspot, and easy-access group surveys. Second, to alleviate suffering of the affected populations (i.e., control morbidity) the morbidity management and disability prevention (MMDP) package of care was implemented. Specifically, clinical case estimates were obtained via house-to-house patient searching activities; health personnel and patients were trained in self-care protocols for lymphoedema and/or referrals to hospitals for hydrocoele surgery; and the readiness and quality of treatment and services were assessed with new survey tools. CONCLUSIONS: Malawi's elimination of LF will ensure that future generations are not infected and suffer from the disfiguring and disabling disease. However, it will be critical that the Malawi LF Elimination programme remains vigilant, focussing on post-elimination surveillance and MMDP implementation and integration into routine health systems to support long-term sustainability and ongoing success. SUMMARY: Lymphatic filariasis, also known as elephantiasis, is a disabling, disfiguring, and painful disease caused by a parasite that infected mosquitoes transmit to millions of people worldwide. Since 2000, the Global Programme to Eliminate Lymphatic Filariasis (GPELF) has supported endemic countries such as Malawi in south-eastern Africa, to eliminate the disease as a public health problem. The Malawi National LF Elimination Programme has worked tirelessly over the past two decades to implement the GPELF recommended strategies to interrupt the transmission with a two-drug regime, and to alleviate suffering in patients with lymphoedema and/or hydrocoele through morbidity management and disability prevention. Additionally, the LF Programme has collaborated with national and international stakeholders to implement a range of supplementary operational research projects to address outstanding knowledge gaps and programmatic barriers. In 2020, the World Health Organisation validated that Malawi had successfully eliminated LF as a public health problem, making it the second country in sub-Saharan Africa to achieve this, which is remarkable given that Malawi previously had very high infection rates. The LF Programme now remains vigilant, putting its efforts towards post-elimination surveillance and the continued implementation of care for patients with chronic conditions. Malawi's elimination of LF will ensure that future generations are not affected by this devastating disease.

Integrated survey of helminthic neglected tropical diseases and comparison of two mosquito sampling methods for lymphatic filariasis molecular xenomonitoring in the River Galana area, Kilifi County, coastal Kenya.

A lymphatic filariasis (LF) endemic focus along the River Galana/ Sabaki in Kilifi County, coastal Kenya, provided a platform to conduct an integrated survey for three helminthic neglected tropical diseases (NTDs), namely soil-transmitted helminthiasis (STH), schistosomiasis (SCH) and LF. Additionally, the study compared the performance of two mosquito trapping methods for LF molecular xenomonitoring (MX). Cross-sectional surveys measuring STH, SCH and LF prevalence were conducted in four villages. Mosquitoes were trapped using the CDC light trap (CDC-LT) and the Ifakara A tent trap (Ifakara-TT) methods and stored in pools which were tested for Wuchereria bancrofti DNA using the real-time polymerase chain reaction assay. A total of 907 people (436 adults; 471 children) participated in the parasitological testing. Among the STH infections, Trichuris trichiura and hookworms were most prevalent among the children and adult populations, respectively. The schistosome worm eggs detected belonged to the species Schistosoma haematobium and the prevalence of the infection was generally higher among the children compared with the adult population. The prevalence of LF infection among the adult population ranged from 1.8% to 7.6% across all 4 villages (P < 0.05). A total of 3,652 mosquitoes, including Anopheles, Culex, Mansonia, and Aedes species were collected. One mosquito pool consisting of Anopheles mosquitoes tested positive for filarial DNA out of 1,055 pools that were tested. The CDC-LT caught significantly more mosquitoes compared with the Ifakara-TT (P < 0.001). This study demonstrated that integrated epidemiological surveys using standard parasitological and entomological methods can provide useful information on co-endemic parasitic diseases which could help direct interventions and surveillance activities.

Impact of five annual rounds of mass drug administration with ivermectin on onchocerciasis in Sierra Leone.

BACKGROUND: Onchocerciasis is endemic in 12 of the 14 health districts of Sierra Leone. Good treatment coverage of community-directed treatment with ivermectin was achieved between 2005 and 2009 after the 11-year civil conflict. Sentinel site surveys were conducted in 2010 to evaluate the impact of five annual rounds of ivermectin distribution. METHODS: In total, 39 sentinel villages from hyper- and meso-endemic areas across the 12 endemic districts were surveyed using skin snips in 2010. Results were analyzed and compared with the baseline data from the same 39 villages. RESULTS: The average microfilaridermia (MF) prevalence across 39 sentinel villages was 53.10% at baseline. The MF prevalence was higher in older age groups, with the lowest in the age group of 1-9 years (11.00%) and the highest in the age group of 40-49 years (82.31%). Overall mean MF density among the positives was 28.87 microfilariae (mf)/snip, increasing with age with the lowest in the age group of 1-9 years and the highest in the age group of 40-49 years. Males had higher MF prevalence and density than females. In 2010 after five rounds of mass drug administration, the overall MF prevalence decreased by 60.26% from 53.10% to 21.10%; the overall mean MF density among the positives decreased by 71.29% from 28.87 mf/snip to 8.29 mf/snip; and the overall mean MF density among all persons examined decreased by 88.58% from 15.33 mf/snip to 1.75 mf/snip. Ten of 12 endemic districts had > 50% reduction in MF prevalence. Eleven of 12 districts had ≥50% reduction in mean MF density among the positives. CONCLUSIONS: A significant reduction of onchocerciasis MF prevalence and mean density was recorded in all 12 districts of Sierra Leone after five annual MDAs with effective treatment coverage. The results suggested that the onchocerciasis elimination programme in Sierra Leone was on course to reach the objective of eliminating onchocerciasis in the country by the year 2025. Annual MDA with ivermectin should continue in all 12 districts and further evaluations are needed across the country to assist the NTDP with programme decision making.

Results of a confirmatory mapping tool for Lymphatic filariasis endemicity classification in areas where transmission was uncertain in Ethiopia.

BACKGROUND: The goal of the global lymphatic filariasis (LF) program is to eliminate the disease as a public health problem by the year 2020. The WHO mapping protocol that is used to identify endemic areas in need of mass drug administration (MDA) uses convenience-based sampling. This rapid mapping has allowed the global program to dramatically scale up treatment, but as the program approaches its elimination goal, it is important to ensure that all endemic areas have been identified and have received MDA. In low transmission settings, the WHO mapping protocol for LF mapping has several limitations. To correctly identify the LF endemicity of woredas, a new confirmatory mapping tool was developed to test older school children for circulating filarial antigen (CFA) in settings where it is uncertain. Ethiopia is the first country to implement this new tool. In this paper, we present the Ethiopian experience of implementing the new confirmatory mapping tool and discuss the implications of the results for the LF program in Ethiopia and globally. METHODS: Confirmatory LF mapping was conducted in 1,191 schools in 45 woredas, the implementation unit in Ethiopia, in the regions of Tigray, Amhara, Oromia, SNNP, Afar and Harari, where the results of previous mapping for LF using the current WHO protocol indicated that LF endemicity was uncertain. Within each woreda schools were selected using either cluster or systematic sampling. From selected schools, a total of 18,254 children were tested for circulating filarial antigen (CFA) using the immuno-chromatographic test (ICT). RESULTS: Of the 18,254 children in 45 woredas who participated in the survey, 28 (0.16%) in 9 woredas tested CFA positive. According to the confirmatory mapping threshold, which is ≥2% CFA in children 9-14 years of age, only 3 woredas out of the total 45 had more CFA positive results than the threshold and thus were confirmed to be endemic; the remaining 42 woredas were declared non-endemic. These results drastically decreased the estimated total population living in LF-endemic woredas in Ethiopia and in need of MDA by 49.1%, from 11,580,010 to 5,893,309. CONCLUSION: This study demonstrated that the new confirmatory mapping tool for LF can benefit national LF programs by generating information that not only can confirm where LF is endemic, but also can save time and resources by preventing MDA where there is no evidence of ongoing LF transmission.

Seroprevalence of hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) in Bo, Sierra Leone, 2012-2013.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to determine the prevalence of hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) among febrile individuals tested at Mercy Hospital Research Laboratory (MHRL) in Bo, Sierra Leone. RESULTS: A total of 860 febrile individuals ages 5 years and older were tested by MHRL between July 2012 and June 2013 with a Standard Diagnostics Bioline HBsAg rapid diagnostic test. The overall HBsAg prevalence rate was 13.7%, including a rate of 15.5% among males and 12.6% among females. The HBsAg rate did not differ by child or adult age group (p > 0.5). The prevalence rate in Bo was similar to the 11-15% HBsAg prevalence rates reported in the past decade from other studies across West Africa. Scaling up the infant hepatitis B vaccination program in Sierra Leone will be important for reducing the future burden of disease and premature death attributable to chronic viral hepatitis B disease.

Molecular xenomonitoring for post-validation surveillance of lymphatic filariasis in Togo: no evidence for active transmission.

BACKGROUND: Lymphatic filariasis (LF) is a mosquito-borne filarial disease targeted for elimination by the year 2020. The Republic of Togo undertook mass treatment of entire endemic communities from 2000 to 2009 to eliminate the transmission of the disease and is currently the first sub-Saharan African country to be validated by WHO for the elimination of LF as a public health problem. However, post-validation surveillance activities are required to ensure the gains achieved are sustained. This survey assessed the mosquito vectors of the disease and determined the presence of infection in these vectors, testing the hypothesis that transmission has already been interrupted in Togo. METHOD: Mosquitoes were collected from 37 villages located in three districts in one of four evaluation units in the country. In each district, 30 villages were selected based on probability proportionate to size; eight villages (including one of the 30 villages already selected) where microfilaremia-positive cases had been identified during post-treatment surveillance activities were intentionally sampled. Mosquitoes were collected using pyrethrum spray collections (PSC) in households randomly selected in all villages for five months. In the purposefully selected communities, mosquitoes were also collected using human landing collections (HLC) and exit traps (ET). Collected mosquitoes were identified morphologically, and the identification of Wuchereria bancrofti DNA in the mosquitoes was based on the pool screening method, using the LAMP assay. RESULTS: A total of 15,539 mosquitoes were collected during the study. Anopheles gambiae (72.6%) was the predominant LF vector collected using PSC. Pool screen analysis of 9191 An. gambiae in 629 pools revealed no mosquitoes infected with W. bancrofti (0%; CI: 0-0.021). CONCLUSIONS: These results confirm the findings of epidemiological transmission assessment surveys conducted in 2012 and 2015, which demonstrated the absence of LF transmission in Togo. The challenges of implementing molecular xenomonitoring are further discussed.

Perceptions, knowledge, attitudes and practices for the prevention and control of lymphatic filariasis in Conakry, Republic of Guinea.

Little is known about the perceptions, attitudes and practices of lymphatic filariasis in Conakry, Republic of Guinea. Yet, such knowledge is important for an optimal design and implementation of setting-specific prevention and control measures. We conducted a cross-sectional study using a mixed methods approach. Qualitative data related to people's general experience with lymphatic filariasis, their perception of the causes of the disease, the onset of elephantiasis, care-seeking behaviour and the socioeconomic impact of lymphatic filariasis were collected through in-depth interviews with 85 respondents. Quantitative data related to strategies for prevention and the knowledge of the causes of the disease were collected by interviewing 429 people. A total of 514 individuals (313 females and 201 males), aged 10-84 years, participated. Most participants were well aware of lymphatic filariasis and they recognized the disease mainly by its disfiguring manifestation, collectively termed "elephantiasis" or "leg-swelling disease". Morbidity patterns due to filarial infection showed an increase with age (from 30 to 50 years) independent of sex. Most patients with lymphatic filariasis abandoned their jobs (73.9%) or sought other work (21.7%). The main perceived causes of acquiring lymphatic filariasis were of supernatural origin (as stated by 8.7% of patients and 5.7% of healthy subjects), while mosquito bites were mentioned by fewer participants (4.3% of patients and 4.2% of healthy subjects). A number of other causes were reported that relate to both medical and non-medical conceptions. The study also identified socioeconomic impairments and stigmatization due to elephantiasis. Taken together, community perception of lymphatic filariasis in Conakry is influenced by sociocultural conceptions. Appropriate health education campaigns aimed at enhancing community understanding of the transmission of lymphatic filariasis are required to increase the success of mass drug administration implemented for the elimination of this disease. There is a need for a morbidity management programme to alleviate lymphatic filariasis-related physical and emotional burden in Conakry.

Prevalence of markers of HIV infection among febrile adults and children in Bo, Sierra Leone, 2012-2013.

OBJECTIVE: The goal of this study was to examine the prevalence of HIV among febrile patients seeking care in Mercy Hospital, Bo, Sierra Leone, in 2012-2013. RESULTS: A total of 1207 febrile persons were tested for HIV with Determine™ and SD Bioline rapid diagnostic tests kits that detect the presence of HIV antibodies and HIV p24 antigens. The overall prevalence of HIV among the tested patients was 8.9%, which is considerably higher than the < 2% prevalence of HIV reported previously in the general population. While these results are not sufficient to prove a causal relationship, the obtained data imply that HIV positive individuals may be more likely to suffer from febrile infectious diseases than individuals without HIV infection. Increasing the availability and use of HIV testing services will allow antiretroviral therapy to be accessed in a timely manner and improve health status among people living with HIV.

Is mass drug administration against lymphatic filariasis required in urban settings? The experience in Kano, Nigeria.

BACKGROUND: The Global Programme to Eliminate Lymphatic Filariasis (GPELF), launched in 2000, has the target of eliminating the disease as a public health problem by the year 2020. The strategy adopted is mass drug administration (MDA) to all eligible individuals in endemic communities and the implementation of measures to reduce the morbidity of those suffering from chronic disease. Success has been recorded in many rural endemic communities in which elimination efforts have centered. However, implementation has been challenging in several urban African cities. The large cities of West Africa, exemplified in Nigeria in Kano are challenging for LF elimination program because reaching 65% therapeutic coverage during MDA is difficult. There is therefore a need to define a strategy which could complement MDA. Thus, in Kano State, Nigeria, while LF MDA had reached 33 of the 44 Local Government Areas (LGAs) there remained eleven 'urban' LGAs which had not been covered by MDA. Given the challenges of achieving at least 65% coverage during MDA implementation over several years in order to achieve elimination, it may be challenging to eliminate LF in such settings. In order to plan the LF control activities, this study was undertaken to confirm the LF infection prevalence in the human and mosquito populations in three urban LGAs. METHODS: The prevalence of circulating filarial antigen (CFA) of Wuchereria bancrofti was assessed by an immuno-chromatography test (ICT) in 981 people in three urban LGAs of Kano state, Nigeria. Mosquitoes were collected over a period of 4 months from May to August 2015 using exit traps, gravid traps and pyrethrum knock-down spray sheet collections (PSC) in different households. A proportion of mosquitoes were analyzed for W. bancrofti, using dissection, loop-mediated isothermal amplification (LAMP) assay and conventional polymerase chain reaction (PCR). RESULTS: The results showed that none of the 981 subjects (constituted of <21% of children 5-10 years old) tested had detectable levels of CFA in their blood. Entomological results showed that An. gambiae s.l. had W. bancrofti DNA detectable in pools in Kano; W. bancrofti DNA was detected in between 0.96% and 6.78% and to a lesser extent in Culex mosquitoes where DNA was detected at rates of between 0.19% and 0.64%. DNA analysis showed that An. coluzzii constituted 9.9% of the collected mosquitoes and the remaining 90.1% of the mosquitoes were Culex mosquitoes. CONCLUSION: Despite detection of W. bancrofti DNA within mosquito specimens collected in three Kano urban LGAs, we were not able to find a subject with detectable level of CFA. Together with other evidence suggesting that LF transmission in urban areas in West Africa may not be of significant importance, the Federal Ministry of Health advised that two rounds of MDA be undertaken in the urban areas of Kano. It is recommended that the prevalence of W. bancrofti infection in the human and mosquito populations be re-assessed after a couple of years.

Surveillance of Vector-Borne Infections (Chikungunya, Dengue, and Malaria) in Bo, Sierra Leone, 2012-2013.

Malaria remains a significant cause of morbidity and mortality in West Africa, but the contribution of other vector-borne infections (VBIs) to the burden of disease has been understudied. We used rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) for three VBIs to test blood samples from 1,795 febrile residents of Bo City, Sierra Leone, over a 1-year period in 2012-2013. In total, 24% of the tests were positive for malaria, fewer than 5% were positive for markers of dengue virus infection, and 39% were positive for IgM directed against chikungunya virus (CHIKV) or a related alphavirus. In total, more than half (55%) of these febrile individuals tested positive for at least one of the three VBIs, which highlights the very high burden of vector-borne diseases in this population. The prevalence of positives on the Chikungunya IgM and dengue tests did not vary significantly with age (P > 0.36), but higher rates of malaria were observed in children < 15 years of age (P < 0.001). Positive results on the Chikungunya IgM RDTs were moderately correlated with rainfall (r2 = 0.599). Based on the high prevalence of positive results on the Chikungunya IgM RDTs from individuals Bo and its environs, there is a need to examine whether an ecological shift toward a greater burden from CHIKV or related alphaviruses is occurring in other parts of Sierra Leone or the West African region.

Can Lymphatic Filariasis Be Eliminated by 2020?

Interventions against neglected tropical diseases (NTD), including lymphatic filariasis (LF), scaled up dramatically after the signing of the London Declaration (LD) in 2012. LF is targeted for elimination by 2020, but some countries are considered not on track to meet the 2020 target using the recommended preventive chemotherapy and morbidity management strategies. In this Opinion article we review the prospects for achieving LF elimination by 2020 in the light of the renewed global action against NTDs and the global efforts to achieve the sustainable development goals (SDGs) by 2030. We conclude that LF can be eliminated by 2020 using cross-sectoral and integrated approaches because of the compound effect of the other SDG activities related to poverty reduction and water and sanitation.

Extent of Integration of Priority Interventions into General Health Systems: A Case Study of Neglected Tropical Diseases Programme in the Western Region of Ghana.

BACKGROUND: The global health system has a large arsenal of interventions, medical products and technologies to address current global health challenges. However, identifying the most effective and efficient strategies to deliver these resources to where they are most needed has been a challenge. Targeted and integrated interventions have been the main delivery strategies. However, the health system discourse increasingly favours integrated strategies in the context of functionally merging targeted interventions with multifunctional health care delivery systems with a focus on strengthening country health systems to deliver needed interventions. Neglected Tropical Diseases (NTD) have been identified to promote and perpetuate poverty hence there has been global effort to combat these diseases. The Neglected Tropical Diseases Programme (NTDP) in Ghana has a national programme team and office, however, it depends on the multifunctional health delivery system at the regional and district level to implement interventions. The NTDP seeks further health system integration to accelerate achievement of coverage targets. The study estimated the extent of integration of the NTDP at the national, regional and district levels to provide evidence to guide further integration. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The research design was a descriptive case study that interviewed key persons involved in the programme at the three levels of the health system as well as extensive document review. Integration was assessed on two planes-across health system functions-stewardship and governance, financing, planning, service delivery, monitoring and evaluation and demand generation; and across three administrative levels of the health system-national, regional and district. A composite measure of integration designated Cumulative Integration Index (CII) with a range of 0.00-1.00 was used to estimate extent of integration at the three levels of the health system. Service delivery was most integrated while financing and planning were least integrated. Extent of integration was partial at all levels of the health system with a CII of 0.48-0.68; however it was higher at the district compared to the national and regional levels. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: To ensure further integration of the NTDP, planning and finance management activities must be decentralized to involve regional and district levels of the health system. The study provides an empirical measure of extent of integration and indicators to guide further integration.

Low prevalence of Plasmodium and absence of malaria transmission in Conakry, Guinea: prospects for elimination.

BACKGROUND: Over the past 15 years, mortality and morbidity due to malaria have been reduced substantially in sub-Saharan Africa and local elimination has been achieved in some settings. This study addresses the bio-ecology of larval and adult stages of malaria vectors, Plasmodium infection in Anopheles gambiae s.l. in the city of Conakry, Guinea, and discusses the prospect for malaria elimination. METHODS: Water bodies were prospected to identify potential mosquito breeding sites for 6 days each in the dry season (January 2013) and in the rainy season (August 2013), using the dipping method. Adult mosquitoes were collected in 15 communities in the five districts of Conakry using exit traps and indoor spraying catches over a 1-year period (November 2012 to October 2013). Molecular approaches were employed for identification of Anopheles species, including An. coluzzii and An. gambiae s.s. Individual An. gambiae mosquitoes were tested for Plasmodium falciparum and P. vivax sporozoites using the VecTest™ malaria panel assay and an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. A systematic research of Ministry of Health statistical yearbooks was performed to determine malaria prevalence in children below the age of 5 years. RESULTS: Culex larval breeding sites were observed in large numbers throughout Conakry in both seasons. While Anopheles larval breeding sites were less frequent than Culex breeding sites, there was a high odds of finding An. gambiae mosquito larvae in agricultural sites during the rainy season. Over the 1-year study period, a total of 14,334 adult mosquitoes were collected; 14,135 Culex (98.6%) and 161 (1.1%) from the An. gambiae complex. One-hundred and twelve Anopheles mosquitoes, mainly collected from rice fields and gardens, were subjected to molecular analysis. Most of the mosquitoes were An. gambiae s.s. (n = 102; 91.1%) while the remaining 10 (8.9%) were An. melas. The molecular M form of An. gambiae s.s. was predominant (n = 89; 79.5%). The proportions of kdr genotype in the An. gambiae s.s. M and S form were 65.2 and 81.8% (n = 9), respectively. No sporozoite infection were detected in any of the mosquitoes tested. The prevalence of Plasmodium recorded in children aged below 5 years was relatively low and varied between 2.2 and 7.6% from 2009 to 2012. CONCLUSIONS: The low density of larval and adult stages of Anopheles mosquitoes, the absence of infected An. gambiae species and the low prevalence of Plasmodium in under 5-year-old children are important features that might facilitate malaria elimination in Conakry. The heterogeneity in species composition and resistance profiles call for vector control interventions that are tailored to the local bio-ecological setting.

Shrinking the Lymphatic Filariasis Map of Ethiopia: Reassessing the Population at Risk through Nationwide Mapping.

BACKGROUND: Mapping of lymphatic filariasis (LF) is essential for the delineation of endemic implementation units and determining the population at risk that will be targeted for mass drug administration (MDA). Prior to the current study, only 116 of the 832 woredas (districts) in Ethiopia had been mapped for LF. The aim of this study was to perform a nationwide mapping exercise to determine the number of people that should be targeted for MDA in 2016 when national coverage was anticipated. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDING: A two-stage cluster purposive sampling was used to conduct a community-based cross-sectional survey for an integrated mapping of LF and podoconiosis, in seven regional states and two city administrations. Two communities in each woreda were purposely selected using the World Health Organization (WHO) mapping strategy for LF based on sampling 100 individuals per community and two purposely selected communities per woreda. Overall, 130 166 people were examined in 1315 communities in 658 woredas. In total, 140 people were found to be positive for circulating LF antigen by immunochromatographic card test (ICT) in 89 communities. Based on WHO guidelines, 75 of the 658 woredas surveyed in the nine regions were found to be endemic for LF with a 2016 projected population of 9 267 410 residing in areas of active disease transmission. Combining these results with other data it is estimated that 11 580 010 people in 112 woredas will be exposed to infection in 2016. CONCLUSIONS: We have conducted nationwide mapping of LF in Ethiopia and demonstrated that the number of people living in LF endemic areas is 60% lower than current estimates. We also showed that integrated mapping of multiple NTDs is feasible and cost effective and if properly planned, can be quickly achieved at national scale.

Modelling the distribution and transmission intensity of lymphatic filariasis in sub-Saharan Africa prior to scaling up interventions: integrated use of geostatistical and mathematical modelling.

BACKGROUND: Lymphatic filariasis (LF) is one of the neglected tropical diseases targeted for global elimination. The ability to interrupt transmission is, partly, influenced by the underlying intensity of transmission and its geographical variation. This information can also help guide the design of targeted surveillance activities. The present study uses a combination of geostatistical and mathematical modelling to predict the prevalence and transmission intensity of LF prior to the implementation of large-scale control in sub-Saharan Africa. METHODS: A systematic search of the literature was undertaken to identify surveys on the prevalence of Wuchereria bancrofti microfilaraemia (mf), based on blood smears, and on the prevalence of antigenaemia, based on the use of an immuno-chromatographic card test (ICT). Using a suite of environmental and demographic data, spatiotemporal multivariate models were fitted separately for mf prevalence and ICT-based prevalence within a Bayesian framework and used to make predictions for non-sampled areas. Maps of the dominant vector species of LF were also developed. The maps of predicted prevalence and vector distribution were linked to mathematical models of the transmission dynamics of LF to infer the intensity of transmission, quantified by the basic reproductive number (R0). RESULTS: The literature search identified 1267 surveys that provide suitable data on the prevalence of mf and 2817 surveys that report the prevalence of antigenaemia. Distinct spatial predictions arose from the models for mf prevalence and ICT-based prevalence, with a wider geographical distribution when using ICT-based data. The vector distribution maps demonstrated the spatial variation of LF vector species. Mathematical modelling showed that the reproduction number (R0) estimates vary from 2.7 to 30, with large variations between and within regions. CONCLUSIONS: LF transmission is highly heterogeneous, and the developed maps can help guide intervention, monitoring and surveillance strategies as countries progress towards LF elimination.