How interacting anthropogenic pressures alter the plasticity of breeding time in two common songbirds.

Phenological adjustment is the first line of adaptive response of vertebrates when seasonality is disrupted by climate change. The prevailing response is to reproduce earlier in warmer springs, but habitat changes, such as forest degradation, are expected to affect phenological plasticity, for example, due to loss of reliability of environmental cues used by organisms to time reproduction. Relying on a two-decade, country-level capture-based monitoring of common songbirds' reproduction, we investigated how habitat anthropization, here characterized by the rural-urban and forest-farmland gradients, affected the average phenology and plasticity to local temperature in two common species, the great tit Parus major and the blue tit Cyanistes caeruleus. We built a hierarchical model that simultaneously estimated fledging phenology and its response to spring temperatures based on the changes in the proportion of juveniles captured over the breeding season. Both species fledge earlier in warmer sites (blue tit: 2.94 days/°C, great tit: 3.83 days/°C), in warmer springs (blue tit: 2.49 days/°C, great tit: 2.75 days/°C) and in most urbanized habitats (4 days for blue tit and 2 days for great tit). The slope of the reaction norm of fledging phenology to spring temperature varied across sites in both species, but this variation was explained by habitat anthropization only in the deciduous forest specialist, the blue tit. In this species, the responses to spring temperature were shallower in agricultural landscapes and slightly steeper in more urban areas. Habitat anthropization did not explain variation in the slope of the reaction norm in the habitat-generalist species (great tit), for which mean fledgling phenology and plasticity were correlated (i.e., steeper response in later sites). The effects of habitat change on phenological reaction norms provide another way through which combined environmental degradations may threaten populations' persistence, to an extent depending on species and on the changes in their prey phenology and abundance.

Synchrony in adult survival is remarkably strong among common temperate songbirds across France.

Synchronous variation in demographic parameters across species increases the risk of simultaneous local extinction, which lowers the probability of subsequent recolonization. Synchrony therefore tends to destabilize meta-populations and meta-communities. Quantifying interspecific synchrony in demographic parameters, like abundance, survival, or reproduction, is thus a way to indirectly assess the stability of meta-populations and meta-communities. Moreover, it is particularly informative to identify environmental drivers of interspecific synchrony because those drivers are important across species. Using a Bayesian hierarchical multisite multispecies mark-recapture model, we investigated temporal interspecific synchrony in annual adult apparent survival for 16 common songbird species across France for the period 2001-2016. Annual adult survival was largely synchronous among species (73%, 95% credible interval [47%-94%] of the variation among years was common to all species), despite species differing in ecological niche and life history. This result was robust to different model formulations, uneven species sample sizes, and removing the long-term trend in survival. Synchrony was also shared across migratory strategies, which suggests that environmental forcing during the 4-month temperate breeding season has a large-scale, interspecific impact on songbird survival. However, the strong interspecific synchrony was not easily explained by a set of candidate weather variables we defined a priori. Spring weather variables explained only 1.4% [0.01%-5.5%] of synchrony, while the contribution of large-scale winter weather indices may have been stronger but uncertain, accounting for 12% [0.3%-37%] of synchrony. Future research could jointly model interspecific variation and covariation in breeding success, age-dependent survival, and age-dependent dispersal to understand when interspecific synchrony in abundance emerges and destabilizes meta-communities.

Spatial variation in avian bill size is associated with temperature extremes in a major radiation of Australian passerines.

Morphology is integral to body temperature regulation. Recent advances in understanding of thermal physiology suggest a role of the avian bill in thermoregulation. To explore the adaptive significance of bill size for thermoregulation we characterized relationships between bill size and climate extremes. Most previous studies focused on climate means, ignoring frequencies of extremes, and do not reflect thermoregulatory costs experienced over shorter time scales. Using 79 species (9847 museum specimens), we explore how bill size variation is associated with temperature extremes in a large and diverse radiation of Australasian birds, Meliphagides, testing a series of predictions. Overall, across the continent, bill size variation was associated with both climate extremes and means and was most strongly associated with winter temperatures; associations at the level of climate zones differed from continent-wide associations and were complex, yet consistent with physiology and a thermoregulatory role for avian bills. Responses to high summer temperatures were nonlinear suggesting they may be difficult to detect in large-scale continental analyses using previous methodologies. We provide strong evidence that climate extremes have contributed to the evolution of bill morphology in relation to thermoregulation and show the importance of including extremes to understand fine-scale trait variation across space.

Early-life behavior, survival, and maternal personality in a wild marsupial.

Individual behavior varies for many reasons, but how early in life are such differences apparent, and are they under selection? We investigated variation in early-life behavior in a wild eastern gray kangaroo (Macropus giganteus) population, and quantified associations of behavior with early survival. Behavior of young was measured while still in the pouch and as subadults, and survival to weaning was monitored. We found consistent variation between offspring of different mothers in levels of activity at the pouch stage, in flight initiation distance (FID) as subadults, and in subadult survival, indicating similarity between siblings. There was no evidence of covariance between the measures of behavior at the pouch young versus subadult stages, nor of covariance of the early-life behavioral traits with subadult survival. However, there was a strong covariance between FIDs of mothers and those of their offspring tested at different times. Further, of the total repeatability of subadult FID (51.5%), more than half could be attributed to differences between offspring of different mothers. Our results indicate that 1) behavioral variation is apparent at a very early stage of development (still in the pouch in the case of this marsupial); 2) between-mother differences can explain much of the repeatability (or "personality") of juvenile behavior; and 3) mothers and offspring exhibit similar behavioral responses to stimuli. However, 4) we found no evidence of selection via covariance between early-life or maternal behavioral traits and juvenile survival in this wild marsupial.

Semicircular canal shape diversity among modern lepidosaurs: life habit, size, allometry.

BACKGROUND: The shape of the semicircular canals of the inner ear of living squamate reptiles has been used to infer phylogenetic relationships, body size, and life habits. Often these inferences are made without controlling for the effects of the other ones. Here we examine the semicircular canals of 94 species of extant limbed lepidosaurs using three-dimensional landmark-based geometric morphometrics, and analyze them in phylogenetic context to evaluate the relative contributions of life habit, size, and phylogeny on canal shape. RESULTS: Life habit is not a strong predictor of semicircular canal shape across this broad sample. Instead, phylogeny plays a major role in predicting shape, with strong phylogenetic signal in shape as well as size. Allometry has a limited role in canal shape, but inner ear size and body mass are strongly correlated. CONCLUSIONS: Our wide sampling across limbed squamates suggests that semicircular canal shape and size are predominantly a factor of phylogenetic relatedness. Given the small proportion of variance in semicircular canal shape explained by life habit, it is unlikely that unknown life habit could be deduced from semicircular canal shape alone. Overall, semicircular canal size is a good estimator of body length and even better for body mass in limbed squamates. Semiaquatic taxa tend to be larger and heavier than non-aquatic taxa, but once body size and phylogeny are accounted for, they are hard to distinguish from their non-aquatic relatives based on bony labyrinth shape and morphology.

Mistletoes could moderate drought impacts on birds, but are themselves susceptible to drought-induced dieback.

Mistletoes are hemiparasitic plants and keystone species in many ecosystems globally. Given predicted increases in drought frequency and intensity, mistletoes may be crucial for moderating drought impacts on community structure. Dependent on host vascular flows, mistletoes can succumb to stress when water availability falls, making them susceptible to mortality during drought. We counted mistletoe across greater than 350 000 km2 of southeastern Australia and conducted standardized bird surveys between 2016 and 2021, spanning a major drought event in 2018-2019. We aimed to identify predictors of mistletoe abundance and mortality and determine whether mistletoes might moderate drought impacts on woodland birds. Live mistletoe abundance varied with tree species composition, land use and presence of mistletoebirds. Mistletoe mortality was widespread, consistent with high 2018/2019 summer temperatures, low 2019/2020 summer rainfall and the interaction between summer temperatures and rainfall in 2019/2020. The positive association between surviving mistletoes and woodland birds was greatest in the peak drought breeding seasons of 2018/2019 and 2019/2020, particularly for small residents and insectivores. Paradoxically, mistletoes could moderate drought impacts on birds, but are themselves vulnerable to drought-induced mortality. An improved understanding of the drivers and dynamics of mistletoe mortality is needed to address potential cascading trophic impacts associated with mistletoe die-off.

Genetic variance in fitness indicates rapid contemporary adaptive evolution in wild animals.

The rate of adaptive evolution, the contribution of selection to genetic changes that increase mean fitness, is determined by the additive genetic variance in individual relative fitness. To date, there are few robust estimates of this parameter for natural populations, and it is therefore unclear whether adaptive evolution can play a meaningful role in short-term population dynamics. We developed and applied quantitative genetic methods to long-term datasets from 19 wild bird and mammal populations and found that, while estimates vary between populations, additive genetic variance in relative fitness is often substantial and, on average, twice that of previous estimates. We show that these rates of contemporary adaptive evolution can affect population dynamics and hence that natural selection has the potential to partly mitigate effects of current environmental change.

Disentangling the effects of male age and mating history: Contrasting effects of mating history on precopulatory mating behavior and paternity success.

Many studies ask whether young or older males are better at acquiring mates. Even so, how age affects reproductive success is still poorly understood because male age and mating history are confounded in most studies: older males usually have more mating experience. To what extent does mating history rather than age explain variation in male mating success? And how do mating history and male age determine paternity when there is also postcopulatory sexual selection? Here, we experimentally manipulated the mating history of old and young males in the eastern mosquitofish (Gambusia holbrooki). We then recorded male mating behavior and share of paternity (1259 offspring from 232 potential sires) when they competed for mates and fertilizations. Old males, and males with no mating experience, spent significantly more time approaching females, and attempting to mate, than did young males and those with greater mating experience. Male age and mating history interacted to affect paternity: old males benefited from having previous mating experience, but young males did not. Our results highlight that the age-related changes in male reproductive traits and in paternity that have been described in many taxa may be partly attributable to male mating history and not simply to age itself.

Aging and Senescence across Reproductive Traits and Survival in Superb Fairy-Wrens (Malurus cyaneus).

AbstractWhy do senescence rates of fitness-related traits often vary dramatically? By considering the full aging trajectories of multiple traits, we can better understand how a species' life history shapes the evolution of senescence within a population. Here, we examined age-related changes in sex-specific survival, reproduction, and several components of reproduction using a long-term study of a cooperatively breeding songbird, the superb fairy-wren (Malurus cyaneus). We compared aging patterns between traits by estimating standardized rates of maturation, age of onset of senescence, and rates of senescence while controlling for confounding factors reflecting individual variability in life history. We found striking differences in aging and senescence patterns between survival and reproduction as well as between reproductive traits. In both sexes, survival started to decline from maturity onward. In contrast, all reproductive traits showed improvements into early adulthood, and many showed little or no evidence of senescence. In females, despite senescence in clutch size, number of offspring surviving to independence did not decline in late life, possibly due to improvements in maternal care with age. Superb fairy-wrens have exceptionally high levels of extragroup paternity, and while male within-group reproductive success did not change with age, extragroup reproductive success showed a dramatic increase in early ages, followed by a senescent decline, suggesting that male reproductive aging is driven by sexual selection. We discuss how the superb fairy-wrens' complex life history may contribute to the disparate aging patterns across different traits.

Do the ages of parents or helpers affect offspring fitness in a cooperatively breeding bird?

Age-related changes in parental phenotypes or genotypes can impact offspring fitness, but separating germline from nongermline transgenerational effects of ageing is difficult for wild populations. Further, in cooperatively breeding species, in addition to parental ages, the age of 'helpers' attending offspring may also affect juvenile performance. Using a 30-year study of a cooperative breeder with very high rates of extra-pair paternity, the superb fairy-wren (Malurus cyaneus), we investigated the effects of maternal, paternal and helper ages on three measures of offspring performance: nestling weight, juvenile survival to independence and recruitment to the breeding population. Mothers with a longer lifespan had offspring with higher juvenile survival, indicating selective disappearance, but the effect of maternal age on juvenile survival was of similar magnitude but negative. For extra-pair offspring, there was no evidence of any effect of the ages of either the genetic sire or the cuckolded 'social' father. However, for within-pair offspring, there was a positive effect of paternal age on juvenile survival, which we suggest may be driven by sexual selection. There were positive associations between the average age of helpers attending a nest and two of the three aspects of offspring performance; these effects were stronger than any of the effects of parental age. In general, the multiple associations between offspring fitness and the ages of adults around them appeared to be driven more by age-related changes in environmental effects than by age-related changes in the germline.

Limited mass-independent individual variation in resting metabolic rate in a wild population of snow voles (Chionomys nivalis).

Resting metabolic rate (RMR) is a potentially important axis of physiological adaptation to the thermal environment. However, our understanding of the causes and consequences of individual variation in RMR in the wild is hampered by a lack of data, as well as analytical challenges. RMR measurements in the wild are generally characterized by large measurement errors and a strong dependency on mass. The latter is problematic when assessing the ability of RMR to evolve independently of mass. Mixed models provide a powerful and flexible tool to tackle these challenges, but they have rarely been used to estimate repeatability of mass-independent RMR from field data. We used respirometry to obtain repeated measurements of RMR in a long-term study population of snow voles (Chionomys nivalis) inhabiting an environment subject to large circadian and seasonal fluctuations in temperature. Using both uni- and bivariate mixed models, we quantify individual repeatability in RMR and decompose repeatability into mass-dependent and mass-independent components, while accounting for measurement error. RMR varies among individuals, that is, is repeatable (R = .46) and strongly co-varies with BM. Indeed, much of the repeatability of RMR is attributable to individual variation in BM, and the repeatability of mass-independent RMR is reduced by 41% to R = .27. These empirical results suggest that the evolutionary potential of RMR independent of mass may be severely constrained. This study illustrates how to leverage bivariate mixed models to model field data for metabolic traits, correct for measurement error and decompose the relative importance of mass-dependent and mass-independent physiological variation.

The role of selection and evolution in changing parturition date in a red deer population.

Changing environmental conditions cause changes in the distributions of phenotypic traits in natural populations. However, determining the mechanisms responsible for these changes-and, in particular, the relative contributions of phenotypic plasticity versus evolutionary responses-is difficult. To our knowledge, no study has yet reported evidence that evolutionary change underlies the most widely reported phenotypic response to climate change: the advancement of breeding times. In a wild population of red deer, average parturition date has advanced by nearly 2 weeks in 4 decades. Here, we quantify the contribution of plastic, demographic, and genetic components to this change. In particular, we quantify the role of direct phenotypic plasticity in response to increasing temperatures and the role of changes in the population structure. Importantly, we show that adaptive evolution likely played a role in the shift towards earlier parturition dates. The observed rate of evolution was consistent with a response to selection and was less likely to be due to genetic drift. Our study provides a rare example of observed rates of genetic change being consistent with theoretical predictions, although the consistency would not have been detected with a solely phenotypic analysis. It also provides, to our knowledge, the first evidence of both evolution and phenotypic plasticity contributing to advances in phenology in a changing climate.

Analogues of the fundamental and secondary theorems of selection, assuming a log-normal distribution of expected fitness.

It is increasingly common for studies of evolution in natural populations to infer the quantitative genetic basis of fitness (e.g., the additive genetic variance for relative fitness), and of relationships between traits and fitness (e.g., the additive genetic covariance of traits with relative fitness). There is a certain amount of tension between the theory that justifies estimating these quantities, and methodological considerations relevant to their empirical estimation. In particular, the additive genetic variances and covariances involving relative fitness are justified by the fundamental and secondary theorems of selection, which pertain to relative fitness on the scale that it is expressed. However, naturally-occurring fitness distributions lend themselves to analysis with generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs), which conduct analysis on a different scale, typically on the scale of the logarithm of expected values, from which fitness is expressed. This note presents relations between evolutionary change in traits, and the rate of adaptation in fitness, and log quantitative genetic parameters of fitness, potentially reducing the discord between theoretical and methodological considerations to the operationalization of the secondary and fundamental theorems of selection.

Estimation of Genetic Variance in Fitness, and Inference of Adaptation, When Fitness Follows a Log-Normal Distribution.

Additive genetic variance in relative fitness (σA2(w)) is arguably the most important evolutionary parameter in a population because, by Fisher's fundamental theorem of natural selection (FTNS; Fisher RA. 1930. The genetical theory of natural selection. 1st ed. Oxford: Clarendon Press), it represents the rate of adaptive evolution. However, to date, there are few estimates of σA2(w) in natural populations. Moreover, most of the available estimates rely on Gaussian assumptions inappropriate for fitness data, with unclear consequences. "Generalized linear animal models" (GLAMs) tend to be more appropriate for fitness data, but they estimate parameters on a transformed ("latent") scale that is not directly interpretable for inferences on the data scale. Here we exploit the latest theoretical developments to clarify how best to estimate quantitative genetic parameters for fitness. Specifically, we use computer simulations to confirm a recently developed analog of the FTNS in the case when expected fitness follows a log-normal distribution. In this situation, the additive genetic variance in absolute fitness on the latent log-scale (σA2(l)) equals (σA2(w)) on the data scale, which is the rate of adaptation within a generation. However, due to inheritance distortion, the change in mean relative fitness between generations exceeds σA2(l) and equals (exp⁡(σA2(l))-1). We illustrate why the heritability of fitness is generally low and is not a good measure of the rate of adaptation. Finally, we explore how well the relevant parameters can be estimated by animal models, comparing Gaussian models with Poisson GLAMs. Our results illustrate 1) the correspondence between quantitative genetics and population dynamics encapsulated in the FTNS and its log-normal-analog and 2) the appropriate interpretation of GLAM parameter estimates.

Heritability, selection, and the response to selection in the presence of phenotypic measurement error: Effects, cures, and the role of repeated measurements.

Quantitative genetic analyses require extensive measurements of phenotypic traits, a task that is often not trivial, especially in wild populations. On top of instrumental measurement error, some traits may undergo transient (i.e., nonpersistent) fluctuations that are biologically irrelevant for selection processes. These two sources of variability, which we denote here as measurement error in a broad sense, are possible causes for bias in the estimation of quantitative genetic parameters. We illustrate how in a continuous trait transient effects with a classical measurement error structure may bias estimates of heritability, selection gradients, and the predicted response to selection. We propose strategies to obtain unbiased estimates with the help of repeated measurements taken at an appropriate temporal scale. However, the fact that in quantitative genetic analyses repeated measurements are also used to isolate permanent environmental instead of transient effects requires that the information content of repeated measurements is carefully assessed. To this end, we propose to distinguish "short-term" from "long-term" repeats, where the former capture transient variability and the latter help isolate permanent effects. We show how the inclusion of the corresponding variance components in quantitative genetic models yields unbiased estimates of all quantities of interest, and we illustrate the application of the method to data from a Swiss snow vole population.

A reassessment of explanations for discordant introgressions of mitochondrial and nuclear genomes.

Hybridization is increasingly recognized as a significant evolutionary process, in particular because it can lead to introgression of genes from one species to another. A striking pattern of discordance in the amount of introgression between mitochondrial and nuclear markers exists such that substantial mitochondrial introgression is often found in combination with no or little nuclear introgression. Multiple mechanisms have been proposed to explain this discordance, including positive selection for introgressing mitochondrial variants, several types of sex-biases, drift, negative selection against introgression in the nuclear genome, and spatial expansion. Most of these hypotheses are verbal, and have not been quantitatively evaluated so far. We use individual-based, multilocus, computer simulations of secondary contact under a wide range of demographic and genetic scenarios to evaluate the ability of the different mechanisms to produce discordant introgression. Sex-biases and spatial expansions fail to produce substantial mito-nuclear discordance. Drift and nuclear selection can produce strong discordance, but only under a limited range of conditions. In contrast, selection on the mitochondrial genome produces strong discordance, particularly when dispersal rates are low. However, commonly used statistical tests have little power to detect this selection. Altogether, these results dismiss several popular hypotheses, and provide support for adaptive mitochondrial introgression.

Bigger Is Fitter? Quantitative Genetic Decomposition of Selection Reveals an Adaptive Evolutionary Decline of Body Mass in a Wild Rodent Population.

In natural populations, quantitative trait dynamics often do not appear to follow evolutionary predictions. Despite abundant examples of natural selection acting on heritable traits, conclusive evidence for contemporary adaptive evolution remains rare for wild vertebrate populations, and phenotypic stasis seems to be the norm. This so-called "stasis paradox" highlights our inability to predict evolutionary change, which is especially concerning within the context of rapid anthropogenic environmental change. While the causes underlying the stasis paradox are hotly debated, comprehensive attempts aiming at a resolution are lacking. Here, we apply a quantitative genetic framework to individual-based long-term data for a wild rodent population and show that despite a positive association between body mass and fitness, there has been a genetic change towards lower body mass. The latter represents an adaptive response to viability selection favouring juveniles growing up to become relatively small adults, i.e., with a low potential adult mass, which presumably complete their development earlier. This selection is particularly strong towards the end of the snow-free season, and it has intensified in recent years, coinciding which a change in snowfall patterns. Importantly, neither the negative evolutionary change, nor the selective pressures that drive it, are apparent on the phenotypic level, where they are masked by phenotypic plasticity and a non causal (i.e., non genetic) positive association between body mass and fitness, respectively. Estimating selection at the genetic level enabled us to uncover adaptive evolution in action and to identify the corresponding phenotypic selective pressure. We thereby demonstrate that natural populations can show a rapid and adaptive evolutionary response to a novel selective pressure, and that explicitly (quantitative) genetic models are able to provide us with an understanding of the causes and consequences of selection that is superior to purely phenotypic estimates of selection and evolutionary change.

Successful by Chance? The Power of Mixed Models and Neutral Simulations for the Detection of Individual Fixed Heterogeneity in Fitness Components.

Heterogeneity in fitness components consists of fixed heterogeneity due to latent differences fixed throughout life (e.g., genetic variation) and dynamic heterogeneity generated by stochastic variation. Their relative magnitude is crucial for evolutionary processes, as only the former may allow for adaptation. However, the importance of fixed heterogeneity in small populations has recently been questioned. Using neutral simulations (NS), several studies failed to detect fixed heterogeneity, thus challenging previous results from mixed models (MM). To understand the causes of this discrepancy, we estimate the statistical power and false positive rate of both methods and apply them to empirical data from a wild rodent population. While MM show high false-positive rates if confounding factors are not accounted for, they have high statistical power to detect real fixed heterogeneity. In contrast, NS are also subject to high false-positive rates but always have low power. Indeed, MM analyses of the rodent population data show significant fixed heterogeneity in reproductive success, whereas NS analyses do not. We suggest that fixed heterogeneity may be more common than is suggested by NS and that NS are useful only if more powerful methods are not applicable and if they are complemented by a power analysis.

Hybrid speciation in sparrows II: a role for sex chromosomes?

Homoploid hybrid speciation in animals is poorly understood, mainly because of the scarcity of well-documented cases. Here, we present the results of a multilocus sequence analysis on the house sparrow (Passer domesticus), Spanish sparrow (P. hispaniolensis) and their proposed hybrid descendant, the Italian sparrow (P. italiae). The Italian sparrow is shown to be genetically intermediate between the house sparrow and Spanish sparrow, exhibiting genealogical discordance and a mosaic pattern of alleles derived from either of the putative parental species. The average variation on the Z chromosome was significantly reduced compared with autosomal variation in the putative parental species, the house sparrow and Spanish sparrow. Additionally, divergence between the two species was elevated on the Z chromosome relative to the autosomes. This pattern of variation and divergence is consistent with reduced introgression of Z-linked genes and/or a faster-Z effect (increased rate of adaptive divergence on the Z). F(ST) -outlier tests were consistent with the faster-Z hypothesis: two of five Z-linked loci (CHD1Z and PLAA) were identified as candidates for being subject to positive, divergent selection in the putative parental species. Interestingly, the two latter genes showed a mosaic pattern in the (hybrid) Italian sparrow; that is, the Italian sparrow was found to be fixed for Spanish sparrow alleles at CHD1Z and to mainly have house sparrow alleles at PLAA. Preliminary evidence presented in this study thus suggests that sex chromosomes may play a significant role in this case of homoploid hybrid speciation.