Phylogenetic reconciliation reveals extensive ancestral recombination in Sarbecoviruses and the SARS-CoV-2 lineage

An accurate understanding of the evolutionary history of rapidly-evolving viruses like SARS-CoV-2, responsible for the COVID-19 pandemic, is crucial to tracking and preventing the spread of emerging pathogens. However, viruses undergo frequent recombination, which makes it difficult to trace their evolutionary history using traditional phylogenetic methods. Here, we present a phylogenetic workflow, virDTL, for analyzing viral evolution in the presence of recombination. Our approach leverages reconciliation methods developed for inferring horizontal gene transfer in prokaryotes, and, compared to existing tools, is uniquely able to identify ancestral recombinations while accounting for several sources of inference uncertainty, including in the construction of a strain tree, estimation and rooting of gene family trees, and reconciliation itself. We apply this workflow to the Sarbecovirus subgenus and demonstrate how a principled analysis of predicted recombination gives insight into the evolution of SARS-CoV-2. In addition to providing confirming evidence for the horseshoe bat as its zoonotic origin, we identify several ancestral recombination events that merit further study.

Predicting the mutational drivers of future SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern

SARS-CoV-2 evolution threatens vaccine- and natural infection-derived immunity, and the efficacy of therapeutic antibodies. Herein we sought to predict Spike amino acid changes that could contribute to future variants of concern. We tested the importance of features comprising epidemiology, evolution, immunology, and neural network-based protein sequence modeling. This resulted in identification of the primary biological drivers of SARS-CoV-2 intra-pandemic evolution. We found evidence that resistance to population-level host immunity has increasingly shaped SARS-CoV-2 evolution over time. We identified with high accuracy mutations that will spread, at up to four months in advance, across different phases of the pandemic. Behavior of the model was consistent with a plausible causal structure wherein epidemiological variables integrate the effects of diverse and shifting drivers of viral fitness. We applied our model to forecast mutations that will spread in the future, and characterize how these mutations affect the binding of therapeutic antibodies. These findings demonstrate that it is possible to forecast the driver mutations that could appear in emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern. This modeling approach may be applied to any pathogen with genomic surveillance data, and so may address other rapidly evolving pathogens such as influenza, and unknown future pandemic viruses.