Causal mediation analysis with mediator values below an assay limit.

Causal indirect and direct effects provide an interpretable method for decomposing the total effect of an exposure on an outcome into the indirect effect through a mediator and the direct effect through all other pathways. A natural choice for a mediator in a randomized clinical trial is the treatment's targeted biomarker. However, when the mediator is a biomarker, values can be subject to an assay lower limit. The mediator is affected by the treatment and is a putative cause of the outcome, so the assay lower limit presents a compounded problem in mediation analysis. We propose two approaches to estimate indirect and direct effects with a mediator subject to an assay limit: (1) extrapolation and (2) numerical optimization and integration of the observed likelihood. Since these estimation methods solely rely on the so-called Mediation Formula, they apply to most approaches to causal mediation analysis: natural, separable, and organic indirect, and direct effects. A simulation study compares the two estimation approaches to imputing with half the assay limit. Using HIV interruption study data from the AIDS Clinical Trials Group described in Li et al 2016, AIDS; Lok and Bosch 2021, Epidemiology, we illustrate our methods by estimating the organic/pure indirect effect of a hypothetical HIV curative treatment on viral suppression mediated by two HIV persistence measures: cell-associated HIV-RNA and single-copy plasma HIV-RNA.

Persistence of a Skewed Repertoire of NK Cells in People with HIV-1 on Long-Term Antiretroviral Therapy.

HIV-1 infection greatly alters the NK cell phenotypic and functional repertoire. This is highlighted by the expansion of a rare population of FcRγ- NK cells exhibiting characteristics of traditional immunologic memory in people with HIV (PWH). Although current antiretroviral therapy (ART) effectively controls HIV-1 viremia and disease progression, its impact on HIV-1-associated NK cell abnormalities remains unclear. To address this, we performed a longitudinal analysis detailing conventional and memory-like NK cell characteristics in n = 60 PWH during the first 4 y of ART. Throughout this regimen, a skewed repertoire of cytokine unresponsive FcRγ- memory-like NK cells persisted and accompanied an overall increase in NK surface expression of CD57 and KLRG1, suggestive of progression toward immune senescence. These traits were linked to elevated serum inflammatory biomarkers and increasing Ab titers to human CMV, with human CMV viremia detected in approximately one-third of PWH at years 1-4 of ART. Interestingly, 40% of PWH displayed atypical NK cell subsets, representing intermediate stages of NK-poiesis based on single-cell multiomic trajectory analysis. Our findings indicate that NK cell irregularities persist in PWH despite long-term ART, underscoring the need to better understand the causative mechanisms that prevent full restoration of immune health in PWH.

Safety and Immune Responses Following Anti-PD-1 Monoclonal Antibody Infusions in Healthy Persons With Human Immunodeficiency Virus on Antiretroviral Therapy.

Background: T cells in people with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) demonstrate an exhausted phenotype, and HIV-specific CD4+ T cells expressing programmed cell death 1 (PD-1) are enriched for latent HIV, making antibody to PD-1 a potential strategy to target the latent reservoir. Methods: This was a phase 1/2, randomized (4:1), double-blind, placebo-controlled study in adults with suppressed HIV on antiretroviral therapy with CD4+ counts ≥350 cells/µL who received 2 infusions of cemiplimab versus placebo. The primary outcome was safety, defined as any grade 3 or higher adverse event (AE) or any immune-related AE (irAE). Changes in HIV-1-specific polyfunctional CD4+ and CD8+ T-cell responses were evaluated. Results: Five men were enrolled (median CD4+ count, 911 cells/µL; median age, 51 years); 2 received 1 dose of cemiplimab, 2 received 2 doses, and 1 received placebo. One participant had a probable irAE (thyroiditis, grade 2); another had a possible irAE (hepatitis, grade 3), both after a single low-dose (0.3 mg/kg) infusion. The Safety Monitoring Committee recommended no further enrollment or infusions. All 4 cemiplimab recipients were followed for 48 weeks. No other cemiplimab-related serious AEs, irAEs, or grade 3 or higher AEs occurred. One 2-dose recipient of cemiplimab had a 6.2-fold increase in polyfunctional, Gag-specific CD8+ T-cell frequency with supportive increases in plasma HIV RNA and decreases in total HIV DNA. Conclusions: One of 4 participants exhibited increased HIV-1-specific T-cell responses and transiently increased HIV-1 expression following 2 cemiplimab infusions. The occurrence of irAEs after a single, low dose may limit translating the promising therapeutic results of cemiplimab for cancer to immunotherapeutic and latency reversal strategies for HIV. Clinical Trials Registration. NCT03787095.

Predictors of HIV rebound differ by timing of antiretroviral therapy initiation.

BACKGROUNDIdentifying factors that predict the timing of HIV rebound after treatment interruption will be crucial for designing and evaluating interventions for HIV remission.METHODSWe performed a broad evaluation of viral and immune factors that predict viral rebound (AIDS Clinical Trials Group A5345). Participants initiated antiretroviral therapy (ART) during chronic (N = 33) or early (N = 12) HIV infection with ≥ 2 years of suppressive ART and restarted ART if they had 2 viral loads ≥ 1,000 copies/mL after treatment interruption.RESULTSCompared with chronic-treated participants, early-treated individuals had smaller and fewer transcriptionally active HIV reservoirs. A higher percentage of HIV Gag-specific CD8+ T cell cytotoxic response was associated with lower intact proviral DNA. Predictors of HIV rebound timing differed between early- versus chronic-treated participants, as the strongest reservoir predictor of time to HIV rebound was level of residual viremia in early-treated participants and intact DNA level in chronic-treated individuals. We also identified distinct sets of pre-treatment interruption viral, immune, and inflammatory markers that differentiated participants who had rapid versus slow rebound.CONCLUSIONThe results provide an in-depth overview of the complex interplay of viral, immunologic, and inflammatory predictors of viral rebound and demonstrate that the timing of ART initiation modifies the features of rapid and slow viral rebound.TRIAL REGISTRATIONClinicalTrials.gov NCT03001128FUNDINGNIH National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, Merck.

The survival-incorporated median vs the median in the survivors or in the always-survivors: What are we measuring? and Why?

Many clinical studies evaluate the benefit of a treatment based on both survival and other continuous/ordinal clinical outcomes, such as quality of life scores. In these studies, when subjects die before the follow-up assessment, the clinical outcomes become undefined and are truncated by death. Treating outcomes as "missing" or "censored" due to death can be misleading for treatment effect evaluation. We show that if we use the median in the survivors or in the always-survivors as estimands to summarize clinical outcomes, we may conclude that a trade-off exists between the probability of survival and good clinical outcomes, even in settings where both the probability of survival and the probability of any good clinical outcome are better for one treatment. Therefore, we advocate not always treating death as a mechanism through which clinical outcomes are missing, but rather as part of the outcome measure. To account for the survival status, we describe the survival-incorporated median as an alternative summary measure for outcomes in the presence of death. The survival-incorporated median is the threshold such that 50% of the population is alive with an outcome above that threshold. Through conceptual examples and an application to a prostate cancer treatment study, we show that the survival-incorporated median provides a simple and useful summary measure to inform clinical practice.

Recommendations on data sharing in HIV drug resistance research.

• Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) drug resistance has implications for antiretroviral treatment strategies and for containing the HIV pandemic because the development of HIV drug resistance leads to the requirement for antiretroviral drugs that may be less effective, less well-tolerated, and more expensive than those used in first-line regimens. • HIV drug resistance studies are designed to determine which HIV mutations are selected by antiretroviral drugs and, in turn, how these mutations affect antiretroviral drug susceptibility and response to future antiretroviral treatment regimens. • Such studies collectively form a vital knowledge base essential for monitoring global HIV drug resistance trends, interpreting HIV genotypic tests, and updating HIV treatment guidelines. • Although HIV drug resistance data are collected in many studies, such data are often not publicly shared, prompting the need to recommend best practices to encourage and standardize HIV drug resistance data sharing. • In contrast to other viruses, sharing HIV sequences from phylogenetic studies of transmission dynamics requires additional precautions as HIV transmission is criminalized in many countries and regions. • Our recommendations are designed to ensure that the data that contribute to HIV drug resistance knowledge will be available without undue hardship to those publishing HIV drug resistance studies and without risk to people living with HIV.

Hospital Readmissions Among Persons With Human Immunodeficiency Virus in the United States and Canada, 2005-2018: A Collaboration of Cohort Studies.

BACKGROUND: Hospital readmission trends for persons with human immunodeficiency virus (PWH) in North America in the context of policy changes, improved antiretroviral therapy (ART), and aging are not well-known. We examined readmissions during 2005-2018 among adult PWH in NA-ACCORD. METHODS: Linear risk regression estimated calendar trends in 30-day readmissions, adjusted for demographics, CD4 count, AIDS history, virologic suppression (<400 copies/mL), and cohort. RESULTS: We examined 20 189 hospitalizations among 8823 PWH (73% cisgender men, 38% White, 38% Black). PWH hospitalized in 2018 versus 2005 had higher median age (54 vs 44 years), CD4 count (469 vs 274 cells/µL), and virologic suppression (83% vs 49%). Unadjusted 30-day readmissions decreased from 20.1% (95% confidence interval [CI], 17.9%-22.3%) in 2005 to 16.3% (95% CI, 14.1%-18.5%) in 2018. Absolute annual trends were -0.34% (95% CI, -.48% to -.19%) in unadjusted and -0.19% (95% CI, -.35% to -.02%) in adjusted analyses. By index hospitalization reason, there were significant adjusted decreases only for cardiovascular and psychiatric hospitalizations. Readmission reason was most frequently in the same diagnostic category as the index hospitalization. CONCLUSIONS: Readmissions decreased over 2005-2018 but remained higher than the general population's. Significant decreases after adjusting for CD4 count and virologic suppression suggest that factors alongside improved ART contributed to lower readmissions. Efforts are needed to further prevent readmissions in PWH.

The latency-reversing agent HODHBt synergizes with IL-15 to enhance cytotoxic function of HIV-specific T cells.

IL-15 is under clinical investigation toward the goal of curing HIV infection because of its abilities to reverse HIV latency and enhance immune effector function. However, increased potency through combination with other agents may be needed. 3-Hydroxy-1,2,3-benzotriazin-4(3H)-one (HODHBt) enhances IL-15-mediated latency reversal and NK cell function by increasing STAT5 activation. We hypothesized that HODHBt would also synergize with IL-15, via STAT5, to directly enhance HIV-specific cytotoxic T cell responses. We showed that ex vivo IL-15 + HODHBt treatment markedly enhanced HIV-specific granzyme B-releasing T cell responses in PBMCs from antiretroviral therapy-suppressed (ART-suppressed) donors. We also observed upregulation of antigen processing and presentation in CD4+ T cells and increased surface MHC-I. In ex vivo PBMCs, IL-15 + HODHBt was sufficient to reduce intact proviruses in 1 of 3 ART-suppressed donors. Our findings reveal the potential for second-generation IL-15 studies incorporating HODHBt-like therapeutics. Iterative studies layering on additional latency reversal or other agents are needed to achieve consistent ex vivo reservoir reductions.

HIV post-treatment controllers have distinct immunological and virological features.

HIV post-treatment controllers (PTCs) are rare individuals who maintain low levels of viremia after stopping antiretroviral therapy (ART). Understanding the mechanisms of HIV post-treatment control will inform development of strategies aiming at achieving HIV functional cure. In this study, we evaluated 22 PTCs from 8 AIDS Clinical Trials Group (ACTG) analytical treatment interruption (ATI) studies who maintained viral loads ≤400 copies/mL for ≥24 wk. There were no significant differences in demographics or frequency of protective and susceptible human leukocyte antigen (HLA) alleles between PTCs and post-treatment noncontrollers (NCs, n = 37). Unlike NCs, PTCs demonstrated a stable HIV reservoir measured by cell-associated RNA (CA-RNA) and intact proviral DNA assay (IPDA) during analytical treatment interruption (ATI). Immunologically, PTCs demonstrated significantly lower CD4+ and CD8+ T cell activation, lower CD4+ T cell exhaustion, and more robust Gag-specific CD4+ T cell responses and natural killer (NK) cell responses. Sparse partial least squares discriminant analysis (sPLS-DA) identified a set of features enriched in PTCs, including a higher CD4+ T cell% and CD4+/CD8+ ratio, more functional NK cells, and a lower CD4+ T cell exhaustion level. These results provide insights into the key viral reservoir features and immunological profiles for HIV PTCs and have implications for future studies evaluating interventions to achieve an HIV functional cure.

Effect of Immune-Modulatory Interventions on Asymptomatic Cytomegalovirus Shedding During Suppressive Antiretroviral Therapy.

Long-term consequences of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) are likely the result of persistent inflammation and immune dysfunction of which cytomegalovirus (CMV) is a known contributor. We leveraged 2 AIDS Clinical Trials Group clinical trials exploring the effects of immune modulators (ruxolitinib and sirolimus) on inflammation in people with HIV on antiretroviral therapy to determine whether these interventions affected CMV shedding at various mucosal sites. Analyzing 635 mucosal samples collected, we found no significant difference in CMV levels across study arms or time points. Men had more CMV shedding than women. We did confirm an association between higher CMV DNA and immune markers associated with HIV persistence and HIV-associated mortality rates.

Varied Patterns of Decay of Intact Human Immunodeficiency Virus Type 1 Proviruses Over 2 Decades of Antiretroviral Therapy.

Fourteen people with human immunodeficiency virus type 1 had longitudinal measurements of intact, defective, and total proviral DNA over the course of two decades of antiretroviral therapy. Three patterns of intact proviral DNA decay were revealed: (1) biphasic decline with markedly slower second-phase decline, (2) initial decline that transitions to a zero-slope plateau, and (3) initial decline followed by later increases in intact proviral DNA. Defective proviral DNA levels were essentially stable. Mechanisms of slowing or reversal of second-phase decay of intact proviral DNA may include the inability to clear cells with intact but transcriptionally silent proviruses and clonal expansion of cells with intact proviruses.

Progressive transformation of the HIV-1 reservoir cell profile over two decades of antiviral therapy.

HIV-1 establishes a life-long reservoir of virally infected cells which cannot be eliminated by antiretroviral therapy (ART). Here, we demonstrate a markedly altered viral reservoir profile of long-term ART-treated individuals, characterized by large clones of intact proviruses preferentially integrated in heterochromatin locations, most prominently in centromeric satellite/micro-satellite DNA. Longitudinal evaluations suggested that this specific reservoir configuration results from selection processes that promote the persistence of intact proviruses in repressive chromatin positions, while proviruses in permissive chromosomal locations are more likely to be eliminated. A bias toward chromosomal integration sites in heterochromatin locations was also observed for intact proviruses in study participants who maintained viral control after discontinuation of antiretroviral therapy. Together, these results raise the possibility that antiviral selection mechanisms during long-term ART may induce an HIV-1 reservoir structure with features of deep latency and, possibly, more limited abilities to drive rebound viremia upon treatment interruptions.

The changing prevalence of anemia and risk factors in people with HIV in North America who have initiated ART, 2007-2017.

OBJECTIVE: To characterize the prevalence of anemia and risk factors between 2007 and 2017 for moderate/severe anemia among people with HIV (PWH) in North America who have initiated antiretroviral therapy (ART). DESIGN: Observational study of participants in the North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design (NA-ACCORD). METHODS: We estimated the annual prevalence between 1 January 2007 and 31 December 2017 of mild (11.0-12.9 g/dl men, 11.0-11.9 g/dl women), moderate (8.0-10.9 g/dl regardless of sex) and severe (<8.0 g/dl regardless of sex) anemia. Poisson regression models with robust variance and general estimating equations estimated crude and adjusted prevalence ratios (aPR) with 95% confidence intervals ([-]) comparing risk factors for moderate/severe vs. no/mild anemia between 2007 and 2017. RESULTS: Among 73 898 PWH we observed 366 755 hemoglobin measurements following ART initiation, 37 301 (50%) had one or more measures of anemia during follow-up (mild = 17 743 [24%]; moderate = 13 383[18%]; severe = 6175 [8%]). Moderate/severe anemia was more prevalent among women, non-Hispanic Black and Hispanic PWH (vs. non-Hispanic white), those with underweight body mass index (<18.5 kg/m2) and with comorbidities and coinfections. Older age had increased prevalence of moderate/severe anemia among males and decreased prevalence among females. Prevalence of moderate/severe anemia was greater among those with lower CD4+ cell count (≤200 cells/µl) [aPR = 2.11 (2.06-2.17)] unsuppressed HIV viral load (>200 copies/ml) [aPR = 1.26 (1.23-1.29)] and within the first 6 months of ART initiation (vs. >1 year of ART) [aPR = 1.66 (1.61-1.72)]. CONCLUSION: The prevalence of anemia among PWH is reduced after ART initiation but remains high. Risk factors differ by sex and include comorbidities and HIV disease severity. The persistent, substantial prevalence of anemia among PWH merits further investigation, targeted screening, and clinical interventions.

Evaluating the effect of atorvastatin exposure and vitamin D levels on lipid outcomes in people with HIV-1 with suppressed HIV-1 RNA and LDL cholesterol <130 mg/dL.

INTRODUCTION: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) has become a leading cause of morbidity and mortality among people with HIV. Atorvastatin is known to reduce cardiovascular risk. We (1) compared atorvastatin concentrations between different boosted protease inhibitors (PIs) and with lipid outcomes and (2) compared pre-atorvastatin 25-OH vitamin D levels with atorvastatin concentrations and with lipid outcomes, in people with HIV with suppressed HIV-1 RNA and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) <130 mg/dL. METHODS: A5275 was a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled crossover study of atorvastatin in virally suppressed people with HIV with fasting LDL-C <130 mg/dL. We analyzed results over the 20 weeks of active atorvastatin treatment. Atorvastatin was initiated at 10 mg daily and increased to 20 mg daily after 4 weeks if there were no findings of toxicity. Atorvastatin trough concentrations were measured at week 20. Participants took combination antiretroviral therapy (ART) that included a boosted PI throughout. RESULTS: Overall (n = 67), 70% of participants were male, and the median age was 51 years. There was no apparent association between atorvastatin trough concentrations and pre-atorvastatin vitamin D levels (r = 0.01, p = 0.9) or by boosted PI (p = 0.20). Median pre- to post-atorvastatin change was -39.0 mg/dL in fasting total cholesterol, -40.4 ng/mL in lipoprotein-associated phospholipase A2 (LP-PLA2), and -13.8 U/L in oxidized LDL, with all changes negatively correlated with atorvastatin trough concentrations (r = -0.19, -0.09, -0.21; p ≥ 0.096). CONCLUSIONS: No apparent associations between pre-atorvastatin vitamin D levels and outcomes were observed (all p > 0.70). In virologically suppressed people with HIV, higher atorvastatin concentrations were marginally associated with greater decreases in lipid outcomes.

Comparative sensitivity of automated (Abbott M2000) and manual plasma HIV-1 RNA PCR assays for the detection of persistent viremia after long-term antiretroviral therapy.

Background: The ability of automated, FDA-cleared plasma HIV-1 RNA assays to detect low-level viremia, compared to manual, highly sensitive research-only methods, is not well-defined. We therefore tested paired plasma samples from people with HIV-1 (PWH) on long-term antiretroviral therapy (ART) with both the Abbott M2000 RealTime HIV-1 Viral Load assay (Abbott) and a quantitative reverse transcriptase (RT)-initiated PCR assay that has a reported 95% detection limit of 1 HIV-1 RNA copy/ml (single copy assay, SCA). Methods: Plasma samples from 309 participants in the AIDS Clinical Trials Group study A5321 were tested by both Abbott and SCA. Participants were mostly men (82%). All were on stable ART for a median of 7 years with HIV-1 RNA <40 copies/mL by Abbott. Pooled plasma from each donor was divided and tested. Abbott results were reported as target detected <40 copies/mL but not quantifiable (target detected <40) or target not detected (TND), and SCA results were classified as HIV-1 RNA detected or not detected. Results: By Abbott, 17% (51/309) of sample results were target detected <40, whereas 83% (258/309) were TND. Of the samples that were target detected <40 by Abbott, 73% (37/51) had HIV-1 RNA detected by SCA. By contrast, 43% of samples that were TND by Abbott (110/258) had HIV-1 RNA detected by SCA (p < 0.001). Conclusion: Plasma samples from PWH with HIV-1 RNA detected but <40 copies/ml by the automated Abbott M2000 assay are likely (73% of 51 samples) to have HIV-1 RNA detected by an optimized manual assay with single copy sensitivity. An Abbott HIV-1 RNA result of target not detected did not exclude low-level viremia: 43% of 258 samples had HIV-1 RNA detected by the single copy assay. These findings indicate that the Abbott M2000 assay cannot exclude the persistence of viremia on ART and thus may have less utility, compared to a manual single copy assay, for assessing the impact of experimental interventions designed to eliminate low-level viremia as a step towards achieving ART-free HIV-1 remission.

Evaluating the Cardiovascular Risk in an Aging Population of People With HIV: The Impact of Hepatitis C Virus Coinfection.

Background People with HIV (PWH) are at an increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) with an unknown added impact of hepatitis C virus (HCV) coinfection. We aimed to identify whether HCV coinfection increases the risk of type 1 myocardial infarction (T1MI) and if the risk differs by age. Methods and Results We used data from NA-ACCORD (North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design) from January 1, 2000, to December 31, 2017, PWH (aged 40-79 years) who had initiated antiretroviral therapy. The primary outcome was an adjudicated T1MI event. Those who started direct-acting HCV antivirals were censored at the time of initiation. Crude incidence rates per 1000 person-years were calculated for T1MI by calendar time. Discrete time-to-event analyses with complementary log-log models were used to estimate adjusted hazard ratios and 95% CIs for T1MI among those with and without HCV. Among 23 361 PWH, 4677 (20%) had HCV. There were 89 (1.9%) T1MIs among PWH with HCV and 314 (1.7%) among PWH without HCV. HCV was not associated with increased T1MI risk in PWH (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.98 [95% CI, 0.74-1.30]). However, the risk of T1MI increased with age and was amplified in those with HCV (adjusted hazard ratio per 10-year increase in age, 1.85 [95% CI, 1.38-2.48]) compared with those without HCV (adjusted hazard ratio per 10-year increase in age,1.30 [95% CI, 1.13-1.50]; P<0.001, test of interaction). Conclusions HCV coinfection was not significantly associated with increased T1MI risk; however, the risk of T1MI with increasing age was greater in those with HCV compared with those without, and HCV status should be considered when assessing CVD risk in aging PWH.

Toward Ending the HIV Epidemic: Temporal Trends and Disparities in Early ART Initiation and Early Viral Suppression Among People Newly Entering HIV Care in the United States, 2012-2018.

Background: In 2012, the US Department of Health and Human Services updated their HIV treatment guidelines to recommend antiretroviral therapy (ART) for all people with HIV (PWH) regardless of CD4 count. We investigated recent trends and disparities in early receipt of ART prescription and subsequent viral suppression (VS). Methods: We examined data from ART-naïve PWH newly presenting to HIV care at 13 North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design clinical cohorts in the United States during 2012-2018. We calculated the cumulative incidence of early ART (within 30 days of entry into care) and early VS (within 6 months of ART initiation) using the Kaplan-Meier survival function. Discrete time-to-event models were fit to estimate unadjusted and adjusted associations of early ART and VS with sociodemographic and clinical factors. Results: Among 11 853 eligible ART-naïve PWH, the cumulative incidence of early ART increased from 42% in 2012 to 82% in 2018. The cumulative incidence of early VS among the 8613 PWH who initiated ART increased from 83% in 2012 to 93% in 2018. In multivariable models, factors independently associated with delayed ART and VS included non-Hispanic/Latino Black race, residence in the South census region, being a male with injection drug use acquisition risk, and history of substance use disorder (SUD; all P ≤ .05). Conclusions: Early ART initiation and VS have substantially improved in the United States since the release of universal treatment guidelines. Disparities by factors related to social determinants of health and SUD demand focused attention on and services for some subpopulations.

No evidence that circulating HIV-specific immune responses contribute to persistent inflammation and immune activation in persons on long-term ART.

OBJECTIVE: People with HIV (PWH) have persistently elevated levels of inflammation and immune activation despite suppressive antiretroviral therapy (ART), with specific biomarkers showing associations with non-AIDS-defining morbidities and mortality. We investigated the potential role of the HIV-specific adaptive immune response, which also persists under ART, in driving levels of these clinically relevant biomarkers. DESIGN: Cohort-based study. METHODS: HIV-specific IFN-γ-producing T-cell responses and antibody concentrations were measured in blood at study entry in the ACTG A5321 cohort, following a median of 7 years of suppressive ART. HIV persistence measures including cell-associated (CA)-DNA, CA-RNA, and plasma HIV RNA (single-copy assay) were also assessed at study entry. Plasma inflammatory biomarkers and T-cell activation and cycling were measured at a pre-ART time point and at study entry. RESULTS: Neither the magnitudes of HIV-specific T-cell responses nor HIV antibody levels were correlated with levels of the inflammatory or immune activation biomarkers, including hs-CRP, IL-6, neopterin, sCD14, sCD163, TNF-α, %CD38 + HLA-DR + CD8 + and CD4 + cells, and %Ki67 + CD8 + and CD4 + cells - including after adjustment for pre-ART biomarker level. Plasma HIV RNA levels were modestly correlated with CD8 + T-cell activation ( r  = 0.25, P  = 0.027), but other HIV persistence parameters were not associated with these biomarkers. In mediation analysis, relationships between HIV persistence parameters and inflammatory biomarkers were not influenced by either HIV-specific T-cell responses or antibody levels. CONCLUSION: Adaptive HIV-specific immune responses do not appear to contribute to the elevated inflammatory and immune activation profile in persons on long-term ART.

Predictive value of CD8+ T cell and CD4/CD8 ratio at two years of successful ART in the risk of AIDS and non-AIDS events.

BACKGROUND: While increased CD8 counts and low CD4/CD8 ratio during treated HIV correlate with immunosenescence, their additional predictive values to identify individuals with HIV at higher risk of clinical events remain controversial. METHODS: We selected treatment-naive individuals initiating ART from ACTG studies 384, 388, A5095, A5142, A5202, and A5257 who had achieved viral suppression at year 2. We examined the effect of CD8+ T cell counts and CD4/CD8 at year 2 on the probability of AIDS and serious non-AIDS events in years 3-7. We used inverse probability weighting methods to address informative censoring, combined with multivariable logistic regression models. FINDINGS: We analyzed 5133 participants with a median age of 38 years; 959 (19%) were female, pre-ART median CD4 counts were 249 (Q1-Q3 91-372) cell/µL. Compared to participants with CD8 counts between 500/µL and 1499/µL, those with >1500/µL had a higher risk of clinical events during years 3-7 (aOR 1.75; 95%CI 1.33-2.32). CD4/CD8 ratio was not predictive of greater risk of events through year 7. Additional analyses revealed consistent CD8 count effect sizes for the risk of AIDS events and noninfectious non-AIDS events, but opposite effects for the risk of severe infections, which were more frequent among individuals with CD8 counts <500/µL (aOR 1.70; 95%CI 1.09-2.65). INTERPRETATION: The results of this analysis with pooled data from clinical trials support the value of the CD8 count as a predictor of clinical progression. People with very high CD8 counts during suppressive ART might benefit from closer monitoring and may be a target population for novel interventions. FUNDING: This research was supported by NIH/NIAID awards UM1 AI068634, UM1 AI068636, and UM1 AI106701 and Carlos III Health Institute and FEDER funds (BA21/00017 and BA21/00022).