Cascading effects of climate change on recreational marine flats fishes and fisheries.

Tropical and subtropical coastal flats are shallow regions of the marine environment at the intersection of land and sea. These regions provide myriad ecological goods and services, including recreational fisheries focused on flats-inhabiting fishes such as bonefish, tarpon, and permit. The cascading effects of climate change have the potential to negatively impact coastal flats around the globe and to reduce their ecological and economic value. In this paper, we consider how the combined effects of climate change, including extremes in temperature and precipitation regimes, sea level rise, and changes in nutrient dynamics, are causing rapid and potentially permanent changes to the structure and function of tropical and subtropical flats ecosystems. We then apply the available science on recreationally targeted fishes to reveal how these changes can cascade through layers of biological organization-from individuals, to populations, to communities-and ultimately impact the coastal systems that depend on them. We identify critical gaps in knowledge related to the extent and severity of these effects, and how such gaps influence the effectiveness of conservation, management, policy, and grassroots stewardship efforts.

Viruses of Atlantic Bonefish (Albula vulpes) in Florida and the Caribbean show geographic patterns consistent with population declines.

Atlantic Bonefish (Albula vulpes) are economically important due to their popularity with recreational anglers. In the State of Florida, USA, bonefish population numbers declined by approximately 60% between the 1990s and 2015. Habitat loss, water quality impairment, chemical inputs, and other anthropogenic factors have been implicated as causes, but the role of pathogens has been largely overlooked, especially with respect to viruses. We used a metagenomic approach to identify and quantify viruses in the blood of 103 A. vulpes sampled throughout their Western Atlantic range, including populations in Florida that have experienced population declines and populations in Belize, Mexico, Puerto Rico, and The Bahamas that have remained apparently stable. We identified four viruses, all of which are members of families known to infect marine fishes (Flaviviridae, Iflaviridae, Narnaviridae, and Nodaviridae), but all of which were previously undescribed. Bonefish from Florida and Mexico had higher viral richness (numbers of distinct viruses per individual fish) than fish sampled from other areas, and bonefish from the Upper Florida Keys had the highest prevalence of viral infection (proportion of positive fish) than fish sampled from any other location. Bonefish from Florida also had markedly higher viral loads than fish sampled from any other area, both for a novel narnavirus and for all viruses combined. Bonefish viruses may be indicators of environmentally driven physiological and immunological compromise, causes of ill health, or both. Supplementary information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10641-022-01306-9.

Primed and cued: long-term acoustic telemetry links interannual and seasonal variations in freshwater flows to the spawning migrations of Common Snook in the Florida Everglades.

BACKGROUND: Spawning migrations are a widespread phenomenon among fishes, often occurring in response to environmental conditions prompting movement into reproductive habitats (migratory cues). However, for many species, individual fish may choose not to migrate, and research suggests that conditions preceding the spawning season (migratory primers) may influence this decision. Few studies have provided empirical descriptions of these prior conditions, partly due to a lack of long-term data allowing for robust multi-year comparisons. To investigate how primers and cues interact to shape the spawning migrations of coastal fishes, we use acoustic telemetry data from Common Snook (Centropomus undecimalis) in Everglades National Park, Florida, USA. A contingent of Snook migrate between rivers and coastal spawning sites, varying annually in both the proportion of the population that migrates and the timing of migration within the spawning season. However, the specific environmental factors that serve as migratory primers and cues remain unknown. METHODS: We used eight years of acoustic telemetry data (2012-2019) from 173 tagged Common Snook to investigate how primers and cues influence migratory patterns at different temporal scales. We hypothesize that (1) interannual differences in hydrologic conditions preceding the spawning season contribute to the number of individuals migrating each year, and (2) specific environmental cues trigger the timing of migrations during the spawning season. We used GLMMs to model both the annual and seasonal migratory response in relation to flow characteristics (water level, rate of change in water level), other hydrologic/abiotic conditions (temperature, salinity), fish size, and phenological cues independent of riverine conditions (photoperiod, lunar cycle). RESULTS: We found that the extent of minimum marsh water level prior to migration and fish size influence the proportion of Snook migrating each year, and that high river water level and daily rates of change serve as primary cues triggering migration timing. CONCLUSION: Our findings illustrate how spawning migrations are shaped by environmental factors acting at different temporal scales and emphasize the importance of long-term movement data in understanding these patterns. Research providing mechanistic descriptions of conditions that promote migration and reproduction can help inform management decisions aimed at conserving ecologically and economically important species.

Tropicalization of temperate ecosystems in North America: The northward range expansion of tropical organisms in response to warming winter temperatures.

Tropicalization is a term used to describe the transformation of temperate ecosystems by poleward-moving tropical organisms in response to warming temperatures. In North America, decreases in the frequency and intensity of extreme winter cold events are expected to allow the poleward range expansion of many cold-sensitive tropical organisms, sometimes at the expense of temperate organisms. Although ecologists have long noted the critical ecological role of winter cold temperature extremes in tropical-temperate transition zones, the ecological effects of extreme cold events have been understudied, and the influence of warming winter temperatures has too often been left out of climate change vulnerability assessments. Here, we examine the influence of extreme cold events on the northward range limits of a diverse group of tropical organisms, including terrestrial plants, coastal wetland plants, coastal fishes, sea turtles, terrestrial reptiles, amphibians, manatees, and insects. For these organisms, extreme cold events can lead to major physiological damage or landscape-scale mass mortality. Conversely, the absence of extreme cold events can foster population growth, range expansion, and ecological regime shifts. We discuss the effects of warming winters on species and ecosystems in tropical-temperate transition zones. In the 21st century, climate change-induced decreases in the frequency and intensity of extreme cold events are expected to facilitate the poleward range expansion of many tropical species. Our review highlights critical knowledge gaps for advancing understanding of the ecological implications of the tropicalization of temperate ecosystems in North America.

Can animal habitat use patterns influence their vulnerability to extreme climate events? An estuarine sportfish case study.

Global climate forecasts predict changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme climate events (ECEs). The capacity for specific habitat patches within a landscape to modulate stressors from extreme climate events, and animal distribution throughout habitat matrices during events, could influence the degree of population level effects following the passage of ECEs. Here, we ask (i) does the intensity of stressors of an ECE vary across a landscape? And (ii) Do habitat use patterns of a mobile species influence their vulnerability to ECEs? Specifically, we measured how extreme cold spells might interact with temporal variability in habitat use to affect populations of a tropical, estuarine-dependent large-bodied fish Common Snook, within Everglades National Park estuaries (FL US). We examined temperature variation across the estuary during cold disturbances with different degrees of severity, including an extreme cold spell. Second, we quantified Snook distribution patterns when the passage of ECEs is most likely to occur from 2012 to 2016 using passive acoustic tracking. Our results revealed spatial heterogeneity in the intensity of temperature declines during cold disturbances, with some habitats being consistently 3-5°C colder than others. Surprisingly, Snook distributions during periods of greatest risk to experience an extreme cold event varied among years. During the winters of 2013-2014 and 2014-2015 a greater proportion of Snook occurred in the colder habitats, while the winters of 2012-2013 and 2015-2016 featured more Snook observed in the warmest habitats. This study shows that Snook habitat use patterns could influence vulnerability to extreme cold events, however, whether Snook habitat use increases or decreases their vulnerability to disturbance depends on the year, creating temporally dynamic vulnerability. Faunal global change research should address the spatially explicit nature of extreme climate events and animal habitat use patterns to identify potential mechanisms that may influence population effects following these disturbances.

Climate extremes drive changes in functional community structure.

The response of communities to climate extremes can be quite variable. Much of this variation has been attributed to differences in community-specific functional trait diversity, as well as community composition. Yet, few if any studies have explicitly tested the response of the functional trait structure of communities following climate extremes (CEs). Recently in South Florida, two independent, but sequential potential CEs took place, a 2010 cold front, followed by a 2011 drought, both of which had profound impacts on a subtropical estuarine fish community. These CEs provided an opportunity to test whether the structure of South Florida fish communities following each extreme was a result of species-specific differences in functional traits. From historical temperature (1927-2012) and freshwater inflows records into the estuary (1955-2012), we determined that the cold front was a statistically extreme disturbance, while the drought was not, but rather a decadal rare disturbance. The two disturbances predictably affected different parts of functional community structure and thus different component species. The cold front virtually eliminated tropical species, including large-bodied snook, mojarra species, nonnative cichlids, and striped mullet, while having little affect on temperate fishes. Likewise, the drought severely impacted freshwater fishes including Florida gar, bowfin, and two centrarchids, with little effect on euryhaline species. Our findings illustrate the ability of this approach to predict and detect both the filtering effects of different types of disturbances and the implications of the resulting changes in community structure. Further, we highlight the value of this approach to developing predictive frameworks for better understanding community responses to global change.