Impacts of future nuclear power generation on the international monitoring system.

Many countries are considering nuclear power as a means of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, and the IAEA (IAEA, 2022) has forecasted nuclear power growth rates up to 224% of the 2021 level by 2050. Nuclear power plants release trace quantities of radioxenon, an inert gas that is also monitored because it is released during nuclear explosive tests. To better understand how nuclear energy growth (and resulting Xe emissions) could affect a global nonproliferation architecture, we modeled daily releases of radioxenon isotopes used for nuclear explosion detection in the International Monitoring System (IMS) that is part of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test-Ban Treaty: 131mXe, 133Xe, 133mXe, and 135Xe to examine the change in the number of potential radioxenon detections as compared to the 2021 detection levels. If a 40-station IMS network is used, the potential detections of 133Xe in 2050 would range from 82% for the low-power scenario to 195% for the high-power scenario, compared to the detections in 2021. If an 80-station IMS network is used, the potential detections of 133Xe in 2050 would range from 83% of the 2021 detection rate for the low-power scenario to 209% for the high-power scenario. Essentially no detections of 131mXe and 133mXe are expected. The high growth scenario could lead to a 2.5-fold increase in 135Xe detections, but the total number of detections is still small (on the order of 1 detection per day in the entire network). The higher releases do not pose a health issue, but better automated methods to discriminate between radioactive xenon released from industrial sources and nuclear explosions will be needed to offset the higher workload for people who perform the monitoring.

Using STAX data to predict IMS radioxenon concentrations.

The noble gas collection and measurement stations in the International Monitoring System (IMS) are heavily influenced by releases from medical isotope production facilities. The ability to reliably model the movement of radioxenon from the points of release to these IMS samplers has improved enough that a routine aspect of the analysis of IMS radioxenon data should be the prediction of the effect of releases from industrial nuclear facilities on the sample concentrations. Predicted concentrations at IMS noble gas systems in Germany and Sweden based on measured releases from Institute for Radioelements (IRE) in Belgium and atmospheric transport modeling for a four-month period are presented and discussed.

The 2014 Integrated Field Exercise of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty revisited: The case for data fusion.

The International Monitoring System of the Preparatory Commission for the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO) uses a global network of radionuclide monitoring stations to detect evidence of a nuclear explosion. The two radionuclide technologies employed-particulate and noble gas (radioxenon) detection-have applications for data fusion to improve detection of a nuclear explosion. Using the hypothetical 0.5 kT nuclear explosive test scenario of the CTBTO 2014 Integrated Field Exercise, the intrinsic relationship between particulate and noble gas signatures has been examined. This study shows that, depending upon the time of the radioxenon release, the particulate progeny can produce the more detectable signature. Thus, as both particulate and noble gas signatures are inherently coupled, the authors recommend that the sample categorization schemes should be linked.

International challenge to model the long-range transport of radioxenon released from medical isotope production to six Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty monitoring stations.

After performing a first multi-model exercise in 2015 a comprehensive and technically more demanding atmospheric transport modelling challenge was organized in 2016. Release data were provided by the Australian Nuclear Science and Technology Organization radiopharmaceutical facility in Sydney (Australia) for a one month period. Measured samples for the same time frame were gathered from six International Monitoring System stations in the Southern Hemisphere with distances to the source ranging between 680 (Melbourne) and about 17,000 km (Tristan da Cunha). Participants were prompted to work with unit emissions in pre-defined emission intervals (daily, half-daily, 3-hourly and hourly emission segment lengths) and in order to perform a blind test actual emission values were not provided to them. Despite the quite different settings of the two atmospheric transport modelling challenges there is common evidence that for long-range atmospheric transport using temporally highly resolved emissions and highly space-resolved meteorological input fields has no significant advantage compared to using lower resolved ones. As well an uncertainty of up to 20% in the daily stack emission data turns out to be acceptable for the purpose of a study like this. Model performance at individual stations is quite diverse depending largely on successfully capturing boundary layer processes. No single model-meteorology combination performs best for all stations. Moreover, the stations statistics do not depend on the distance between the source and the individual stations. Finally, it became more evident how future exercises need to be designed. Set-up parameters like the meteorological driver or the output grid resolution should be pre-scribed in order to enhance diversity as well as comparability among model runs.

Improved performance comparisons of radioxenon systems for low level releases in nuclear explosion monitoring.

The Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty bans all nuclear tests and mandates development of verification measures to detect treaty violations. One verification measure is detection of radioactive xenon isotopes produced in the fission of actinides. The International Monitoring System (IMS) currently deploys automated radioxenon systems that can detect four radioxenon isotopes. Radioxenon systems with lower detection limits are currently in development. Historically, the sensitivity of radioxenon systems was measured by the minimum detectable concentration for each isotope. In this paper we analyze the response of radioxenon systems using rigorous metrics in conjunction with hypothetical representative releases indicative of an underground nuclear explosion instead of using only minimum detectable concentrations. Our analyses incorporate the impact of potential spectral interferences on detection limits and the importance of measuring isotopic ratios of the relevant radioxenon isotopes in order to improve discrimination from background sources particularly for low-level releases. To provide a sufficient data set for analysis, hypothetical representative releases are simulated every day from the same location for an entire year. The performance of three types of samplers are evaluated assuming they are located at 15 IMS radionuclide stations in the region of the release point. The performance of two IMS-deployed samplers and a next-generation system is compared with proposed metrics for detection and discrimination using representative releases from the nuclear test site used by the Democratic People's Republic of Korea.

Abatement of xenon and iodine emissions from medical isotope production facilities.

The capability of the International Monitoring System (IMS) to detect xenon from underground nuclear explosions is dependent on the radioactive xenon background. Adding to the background, medical isotope production (MIP) by fission releases several important xenon isotopes including xenon-133 and iodine-133 that decays to xenon-133. The amount of xenon released from these facilities may be equivalent to or exceed that released from an underground nuclear explosion. Thus the release of gaseous fission products within days of irradiation makes it difficult to distinguish MIP emissions from a nuclear explosion. In addition, recent shortages in molybdenum-99 have created interest and investment opportunities to design and build new MIP facilities in the United States and throughout the world. Due to the potential increase in the number of MIP facilities, a discussion of abatement technologies provides insight into how the problem of emission control from MIP facilities can be tackled. A review of practices is provided to delineate methods useful for abatement of medical isotopes.

Maximum reasonable radioxenon releases from medical isotope production facilities and their effect on monitoring nuclear explosions.

Fission gases such as (133)Xe are used extensively for monitoring the world for signs of nuclear testing in systems such as the International Monitoring System (IMS). These gases are also produced by nuclear reactors and by fission production of (99)Mo for medical use. Recently, medical isotope production facilities have been identified as the major contributor to the background of radioactive xenon isotopes (radioxenon) in the atmosphere (Stocki et al., 2005; Saey, 2009). These releases pose a potential future problem for monitoring nuclear explosions if not addressed. As a starting point, a maximum acceptable daily xenon emission rate was calculated, that is both scientifically defendable as not adversely affecting the IMS, but also consistent with what is possible to achieve in an operational environment. This study concludes that an emission of 5 × 10(9) Bq/day from a medical isotope production facility would be both an acceptable upper limit from the perspective of minimal impact to monitoring stations, but also appears to be an achievable limit for large isotope producers.

Isotopic noble gas signatures released from medical isotope production facilities--simulations and measurements.

Radioxenon isotopes play a major role in confirming whether or not an underground explosion was nuclear in nature. It is then of key importance to understand the sources of environmental radioxenon to be able to distinguish civil sources from those of a nuclear explosion. Based on several years of measurements, combined with advanced atmospheric transport model results, it was recently shown that the main source of radioxenon observations are strong and regular batch releases from a very limited number of medical isotope production facilities. This paper reviews production processes in different medical isotope facilities during which radioxenon is produced. Radioxenon activity concentrations and isotopic compositions are calculated for six large facilities. The results are compared with calculated signals from nuclear explosions. Further, the outcome is compared and found to be consistent with radioxenon measurements recently performed in and around three of these facilities. Some anomalies in measurements in which (131m)Xe was detected were found and a possible explanation is proposed. It was also calculated that the dose rate of the releases is well below regulatory values. Based on these results, it should be possible to better understand, interpret and verify signals measured in the noble gas measurement systems in the International Monitoring of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty.