Predicting reamputation risk in patients undergoing lower extremity amputation due to the complications of peripheral artery disease and/or diabetes.

BACKGROUND: Patients undergoing amputation of the lower extremity for the complications of peripheral artery disease and/or diabetes are at risk of treatment failure and the need for reamputation at a higher level. The aim of this study was to develop a patient-specific reamputation risk prediction model. METHODS: Patients with incident unilateral transmetatarsal, transtibial or transfemoral amputation between 2004 and 2014 secondary to diabetes and/or peripheral artery disease, and who survived 12 months after amputation, were identified using Veterans Health Administration databases. Procedure codes and natural language processing were used to define subsequent ipsilateral reamputation at the same or higher level. Stepdown logistic regression was used to develop the prediction model. It was then evaluated for calibration and discrimination by evaluating the goodness of fit, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and discrimination slope. RESULTS: Some 5260 patients were identified, of whom 1283 (24·4 per cent) underwent ipsilateral reamputation in the 12 months after initial amputation. Crude reamputation risks were 40·3, 25·9 and 9·7 per cent in the transmetatarsal, transtibial and transfemoral groups respectively. The final prediction model included 11 predictors (amputation level, sex, smoking, alcohol, rest pain, use of outpatient anticoagulants, diabetes, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, white blood cell count, kidney failure and previous revascularization), along with four interaction terms. Evaluation of the prediction characteristics indicated good model calibration with goodness-of-fit testing, good discrimination (AUC 0·72) and a discrimination slope of 11·2 per cent. CONCLUSION: A prediction model was developed to calculate individual risk of primary healing failure and the need for reamputation surgery at each amputation level. This model may assist clinical decision-making regarding amputation-level selection.

Mortality prediction following non-traumatic amputation of the lower extremity.

BACKGROUND: Patients who undergo lower extremity amputation secondary to the complications of diabetes or peripheral artery disease have poor long-term survival. Providing patients and surgeons with individual-patient, rather than population, survival estimates provides them with important information to make individualized treatment decisions. METHODS: Patients with peripheral artery disease and/or diabetes undergoing their first unilateral transmetatarsal, transtibial or transfemoral amputation were identified in the Veterans Affairs Surgical Quality Improvement Program (VASQIP) database. Stepdown logistic regression was used to develop a 1-year mortality risk prediction model from a list of 33 candidate predictors using data from three of five Department of Veterans Affairs national geographical regions. External geographical validation was performed using data from the remaining two regions. Calibration and discrimination were assessed in the development and validation samples. RESULTS: The development sample included 5028 patients and the validation sample 2140. The final mortality prediction model (AMPREDICT-Mortality) included amputation level, age, BMI, race, functional status, congestive heart failure, dialysis, blood urea nitrogen level, and white blood cell and platelet counts. The model fit in the validation sample was good. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve for the validation sample was 0·76 and Cox calibration regression indicated excellent calibration (slope 0·96, 95 per cent c.i. 0·85 to 1·06; intercept 0·02, 95 per cent c.i. -0·12 to 0·17). Given the external validation characteristics, the development and validation samples were combined, giving a total sample of 7168. CONCLUSION: The AMPREDICT-Mortality prediction model is a validated parsimonious model that can be used to inform the 1-year mortality risk following non-traumatic lower extremity amputation of patients with peripheral artery disease or diabetes.

Epidemiology of inflammatory bowel disease among participants of the Millennium Cohort: incidence, deployment-related risk factors, and antecedent episodes of infectious gastroenteritis.

BACKGROUND: Crohn's disease (CD) and ulcerative colitis (UC) are two pathotypes of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) with unique pathology, risk factors and significant morbidity. AIM: To estimate incidence and identify IBD risk factors in a US military population, a healthy subset of the US population, using information from the Millennium Cohort Study. METHODS: Incident IBD was identified from medical encounters from 2001 to 2009 or by self-report. Our primary risk factor of interest, infectious gastroenteritis, was identified from medical encounters and self-reported post-deployment health assessments. Other potential risk factors were assessed using self-reported survey responses and military personnel files. Hazard ratios were estimated using Cox proportional hazards analysis. RESULTS: We estimated 23.2 and 21.9 diagnoses per 100 000 person-years, respectively, for CD and UC. For CD, significant risk factors included [adjusted hazard ratio (aHR), 95% confidence interval]: current smoking (aHR: 2.7, 1.4-5.1), two life stressors (aHR: 2.8, 1.4-5.6) and prior irritable bowel syndrome (aHR: 4.7, 1.5-15.2). There was no significant association with prior infectious gastroenteritis. There was an apparent dose-response relationship between UC risk and an increasing number of life stressors. In addition, antecedent infectious gastroenteritis was associated with almost a three-fold increase in UC risk (aHR: 2.9, 1.4-6.0). Moderate alcohol consumption (aHR: 0.4, 0.2-0.6) was associated with lower UC risk. CONCLUSIONS: Stressful conditions and the high risk of infectious gastroenteritis in deployment operations may play a role in the development of IBD in military populations. However, observed differences in risk factors for UC and CD warrant further investigation.

Longitudinal Associations Among Posttraumatic Stress Disorder, Disordered Eating, and Weight Gain in Military Men and Women.

Obesity is a major health problem in the United States and a growing concern among members of the military. Posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) has been associated with overweight and obesity and may increase the risk of those conditions among military service members. Disordered eating behaviors have also been associated with PTSD and weight gain. However, eating disorders remain understudied in military samples. We investigated longitudinal associations among PTSD, disordered eating, and weight gain in the Millennium Cohort Study, which includes a nationally representative sample of male (n = 27,741) and female (n = 6,196) service members. PTSD at baseline (time 1; 2001-2003) was associated with disordered eating behaviors at time 2 (2004-2006), as well as weight change from time 2 to time 3 (2007-2008). Structural equation modeling results revealed that the association between PTSD and weight change from time 2 to time 3 was mediated by disordered eating symptoms. The association between PTSD and weight gain resulting from compensatory behaviors (vomiting, laxative use, fasting, overexercise) was significant for white participants only and for men but not women. PTSD was both directly and indirectly (through disordered eating) associated with weight change. These results highlight potentially important demographic differences in these associations and emphasize the need for further investigation of eating disorders in military service members.

Performance of prognostic markers in the prediction of wound healing or amputation among patients with foot ulcers in diabetes: a systematic review.

Prediction of wound healing and major amputation in patients with diabetic foot ulceration is clinically important to stratify risk and target interventions for limb salvage. No consensus exists as to which measure of peripheral artery disease (PAD) can best predict outcomes. To evaluate the prognostic utility of index PAD measures for the prediction of healing and/or major amputation among patients with active diabetic foot ulceration, two reviewers independently screened potential studies for inclusion. Two further reviewers independently extracted study data and performed an assessment of methodological quality using the Quality in Prognostic Studies instrument. Of 9476 citations reviewed, 11 studies reporting on 9 markers of PAD met the inclusion criteria. Annualized healing rates varied from 18% to 61%; corresponding major amputation rates varied from 3% to 19%. Among 10 studies, skin perfusion pressure ≥ 40 mmHg, toe pressure ≥ 30 mmHg (and ≥ 45 mmHg) and transcutaneous pressure of oxygen (TcPO2 ) ≥ 25 mmHg were associated with at least a 25% higher chance of healing. Four studies evaluated PAD measures for predicting major amputation. Ankle pressure < 70 mmHg and fluorescein toe slope < 18 units each increased the likelihood of major amputation by around 25%. The combined test of ankle pressure < 50 mmHg or an ankle brachial index (ABI) < 0.5 increased the likelihood of major amputation by approximately 40%. Among patients with diabetic foot ulceration, the measurement of skin perfusion pressures, toe pressures and TcPO2 appear to be more useful in predicting ulcer healing than ankle pressures or the ABI. Conversely, an ankle pressure of < 50 mmHg or an ABI < 0.5 is associated with a significant increase in the incidence of major amputation.

Effectiveness of bedside investigations to diagnose peripheral artery disease among people with diabetes mellitus: a systematic review.

Non-invasive tests for the detection of peripheral artery disease (PAD) among individuals with diabetes mellitus are important to estimate the risk of amputation, ulceration, wound healing and the presence of cardiovascular disease, yet there are no consensus recommendations to support a particular diagnostic modality over another and to evaluate the performance of index non-invasive diagnostic tests against reference standard imaging techniques (magnetic resonance angiography, computed tomography angiography, digital subtraction angiography and colour duplex ultrasound) for the detection of PAD among patients with diabetes. Two reviewers independently screened potential studies for inclusion and extracted study data. Eligible studies evaluated an index test for PAD against a reference test. An assessment of methodological quality was performed using the quality assessment for diagnostic accuracy studies instrument. Of the 6629 studies identified, ten met the criteria for inclusion. In these studies, the patients had a median age of 60-74 years and a median duration of diabetes of 9-24 years. Two studies reported exclusively on patients with symptomatic (ulcerated/infected) feet, two on patients with asymptomatic (intact) feet only, and the remaining six on patients both with and without foot ulceration. Ankle brachial index (ABI) was the most widely assessed index test. Overall, the positive likelihood ratio and negative likelihood ratio (NLR) of an ABI threshold <0.9 ranged from 2 to 25 (median 8) and <0.1 to 0.7 (median 0.3), respectively. In patients with neuropathy, the NLR of the ABI was generally higher (two out of three studies), indicating poorer performance, and ranged between 0.3 and 0.5. A toe brachial index <0.75 was associated with a median positive likelihood ratio and NLRs of 3 and ≤ 0.1, respectively, and was less affected by neuropathy in one study. Also, in two separate studies, pulse oximetry used to measure the oxygen saturation of peripheral blood and Doppler wave form analyses had NLRs of 0.2 and <0.1. The reported performance of ABI for the diagnosis of PAD in patients with diabetes mellitus is variable and is adversely affected by the presence of neuropathy. Limited evidence suggests that toe brachial index, pulse oximetry and wave form analysis may be superior to ABI for diagnosing PAD in patients with neuropathy with and without foot ulcers. There were insufficient data to support the adoption of one particular diagnostic modality over another and no comparisons existed with clinical examination. The quality of studies evaluating diagnostic techniques for the detection of PAD in individuals with diabetes is poor. Improved compliance with guidelines for methodological quality is needed in future studies.

Interventions in the management of infection in the foot in diabetes: a systematic review.

The expert panel on diabetic foot infection (DFI) of the International Working Group on the Diabetic Foot conducted a systematic review seeking all published reports relating to any type of treatment for infection of the foot in persons with diabetes published as of 30 June 2014. This review, conducted with both PubMed and EMBASE, was used to update an earlier one undertaken on 30 June 2010 using the same search string. Eligible publications included those that had outcome measures reported for both a treated and a control population that were managed either at the same time, or as part of a before-and-after case design. We did not include studies that contained only information related to definition or diagnosis, but not treatment, of DFI. The current search identified just seven new articles meeting our criteria that were published since the 33 identified with the previous search, making a total of 40 articles from the world literature. The identified articles included 37 randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and three cohort studies with concurrent controls, and included studies on the use of surgical procedures, topical antiseptics, negative pressure wound therapy and hyperbaric oxygen. Among the studies were 15 RCTs that compared outcomes of treatment with new antibiotic preparations compared with a conventional therapy in the management of skin and soft tissue infection. In addition, 10 RCTs and 1 cohort study compared different treatments for osteomyelitis in the diabetic foot. Results of comparisons of different antibiotic regimens generally demonstrated that newly introduced antibiotic regimens appeared to be as effective as conventional therapy (and also more cost-effective in one study), but one study failed to demonstrate non-inferiority of a new antibiotic compared with that of a standard agent. Overall, the available literature was both limited in both the number of studies and the quality of their design. Thus, our systematic review revealed little evidence upon which to make recommendations for treatment of DFIs. There is a great need for further well-designed trials that will provide robust data upon which to make decisions about the most appropriate treatment of both skin and soft tissue infection and osteomyelitis in diabetic patients.

Effectiveness of revascularization of the ulcerated foot in patients with diabetes and peripheral artery disease: a systematic review.

Symptoms or signs of peripheral artery disease (PAD) can be observed in up to 50% of the patients with a diabetic foot ulcer and is a risk factor for poor healing and amputation. In 2012, a multidisciplinary working group of the International Working Group on the Diabetic Foot published a systematic review on the effectiveness of revascularization of the ulcerated foot in patients with diabetes and PAD. This publication is an update of this review and now includes the results of a systematic search for therapies to revascularize the ulcerated foot in patients with diabetes and PAD from 1980 to June 2014. Only clinically relevant outcomes were assessed. The research conformed to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses guidelines, and Scottish Intercollegiate Guidelines Network methodological scores were assigned. A total of 56 articles were eligible for full-text review. There were no randomized controlled trials, but there were four nonrandomized studies with a control group. The major outcomes following endovascular or open bypass surgery were broadly similar among the studies. Following open surgery, the 1-year limb salvage rates were a median of 85% (interquartile range of 80-90%), and following endovascular revascularization, these rates were 78% (70-89%). At 1-year follow-up, 60% or more of ulcers had healed following revascularization with either open bypass surgery or endovascular techniques. Studies appeared to demonstrate improved rates of limb salvage associated with revascularization compared with the results of conservatively treated patients in the literature. There were insufficient data to recommend one method of revascularization over another. There is a real need for standardized reporting of baseline demographic data, severity of disease and outcome reporting in this group of patients.

Visceral abdominal fat accumulation predicts the conversion of metabolically healthy obese subjects to an unhealthy phenotype.

BACKGROUND: A proportion of obese subjects appear metabolically healthy (MHO) but little is known about the natural history of MHO and factors predicting its future conversion to metabolically unhealthy obese (MUO). OBJECTIVES: The aim was to determine prospectively the frequency of conversion of MHO to MUO and the clinical variables that independently predicted this conversion, with a particular focus on the role of body composition. METHODS: We identified 85 Japanese Americans with MHO (56 men, 29 women), aged 34-73 years (mean age 49.8 years) who were followed at 2.5, 5 and 10 years after enrollment with measurements of metabolic characteristics, lifestyle and abdominal and thigh fat areas measured by computed tomography. Obesity was defined using the Asian body mass index criterion of ⩾25 kg m(-2). Metabolically healthy was defined as the presence of ⩽2 of 5 metabolic syndrome components proposed by the National Cholesterol Education Program Adult Treatment Panel III, while metabolically unhealthy was defined as ⩾3 components. RESULTS: Over 10 years of follow-up, 55 MHO individuals (64.7%) converted to MUO. Statistically significant univariate predictors of conversion included dyslipidemia, greater insulin resistance and greater visceral abdominal (VAT) and subcutaneous abdominal fat area (SAT). In multivariate analysis, VAT (odds ratio per 1-s.d. increment (95% confidence interval) 2.04 (1.11-3.72), P=0.021), high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol (0.24 (0.11-0.53), P<0.001), fasting plasma insulin (2.45 (1.07-5.62), P=0.034) and female sex (5.37 (1.14-25.27), P=0.033) were significantly associated with future conversion to MUO. However, SAT was not an independent predictor for future conversion to MUO. CONCLUSIONS: In this population, MHO was a transient state, with nearly two-thirds developing MUO over 10 years, with higher conversion to MUO independently associated with VAT, female sex, higher fasting insulin level and lower baseline HDL cholesterol level.

Weight loss intention, dietary behaviors, and barriers to dietary change in veterans with lower extremity amputations.

BACKGROUND: Obesity is thought to be highly prevalent in persons with lower extremity amputations (LEAs) and can impair physical and social functioning. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to determine the prevalence of weight loss intention, weight loss strategies, dietary patterns, and barriers to making dietary changes, and their associations with body mass index (BMI, kg/m(2)), amputation characteristics, health status, and socioeconomic factors. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional study (n = 150) using data from a self-administered questionnaire. RESULTS: 43% of participants were obese and 48% were trying to lose weight; 83% of those trying to lose weight reported trying to "eat differently", but only 7% were following a comprehensive weight loss program involving dietary changes, physical activity, and behavioral counseling. 21% of participants reported ≥ 6 barriers to changing their eating habits (e.g., habit, too little money, stress/depression). Obesity was associated with younger age, lower physical health scores, hypertension, arthritis, and diabetes. Compared to those not trying to lose weight, a greater proportion of those trying to lose weight had a BMI ≥ 35 kg/m(2), age <55 years, higher physical and mental health scores, and more frequent consumption of vegetables, beans, chicken, and fish. CONCLUSIONS: Though over half of overweight and obese individuals with LEA were trying to lose weight, few reported following a comprehensive program to lose weight, which may indicate an unmet need for services for this group. To be effective, these programs will need to address the complex physical and mental health challenges that many of these individuals face.

Mortality among veterans with type 2 diabetes initiating metformin, sulfonylurea or rosiglitazone monotherapy.

AIMS/HYPOTHESES: Despite oral hypoglycaemic medications being the most commonly used pharmacological treatments for type 2 diabetes, research is limited on their comparative safety, particularly their effects on overall mortality. We compared mortality risk with monotherapy initiation of four oral hypoglycaemic medications in a nationwide cohort of US veterans with type 2 diabetes. METHODS: We identified new users of oral hypoglycaemic medication monotherapy between 2004 and 2009 who received care for at least 1 year from the Veterans Health Administration.Patients were followed until initial monotherapy discontinuation,addition of another diabetes pharmacotherapy, death or end of follow-up. Mortality HRs were estimated using Cox regression adjusted for potential confounding factors. RESULTS: Among new users of metformin, sulfonylureas and rosiglitazone (185,360 men, 7,812 women), 4,256 (2.2%) died during follow-up. Average duration of medication use ranged from 1.4 to 1.7 years. Significantly higher mortality risk was seen for glibenclamide (known as glyburide in the USA and Canada) (HR 1.38, 95% CI 1.27, 1.50) or glipizide (HR 1.55,95% CI 1.43, 1.67) compared with metformin monotherapy,and for glipizide compared with rosiglitazone (HR 1.27, 95%CI 1.01, 1.59) or glibenclamide monotherapy (HR 1.12, 95%CI 1.02, 1.23). A significant sex­rosiglitazone interaction was seen (p=0.034) compared with metformin monotherapy, with women having a higher HR (HR 4.36, 95% CI 1.34, 14.20)than men (HR 1.19, 95% CI 0.95, 1.49). CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATIONS: Significantly higher mortality was associated with glibenclamide, glipizide and rosiglitazone use compared with metformin, and with glipizide use compared with rosiglitazone or glibenclamide. The potential for residual confounding by indication should be considered in interpreting these results.

Weight change following US military service.

BACKGROUND: Although overweight and obesity are less prevalent among active-duty military personnel compared with similar persons not serving in the military, no such differences have been observed between veterans and non-veterans. OBJECTIVES: To assess the magnitude of weight changes before, concurrent with and following discharge from the military, relative to weight during service, and to determine the demographic, service-related and psychological characteristics associated with clinically important weight gain among those who were discharged from military service during follow-up. METHODS: Eligible Millennium Cohort Study participants (n=38 686) completed the questionnaires approximately every 3 years (2001, 2004 and 2007) that were used to estimate annual weight changes, as well as the percentage experiencing clinically important weight gain, defined as 10%. Analyses were stratified by sex. RESULTS: Weight gain was greatest around the time of discharge from service and in the 3 years before discharge (1.0-1.3 kg per year), while it was nearly half as much during service (0.6-0.7 kg per year) and 3 years after service ended (0.7 kg per year). Consequently, 6-year weight gain was over 2 kg greater in those who were discharged compared with those who remained in the military during follow-up (5.7 vs 3.5 kg in men; 6.3 vs 4.0 kg in women). In those who were discharged, younger age, less education, being overweight at baseline, being in the active-duty component (vs Reserve/National Guard) and having experienced deployment with combat exposures (vs non-deployment) were associated with increased risks of clinically important weight gain. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides the first prospectively collected evidence for an increased rate of weight gain around the time of military discharge that may explain previously reported higher rates of obesity in veterans, and identifies characteristics of higher-risk groups. Discharge from military service presents a window of risk and opportunity to prevent unhealthy weight gain in military personnel and veterans.

Predictive factors for diabetic foot ulceration: a systematic review.

Improving ability to predict and prevent diabetic foot ulceration is imperative because of the high personal and financial costs of this complication. We therefore conducted a systematic review in order to identify all studies of factors associated with DFU and assess whether available DFU risk stratification systems incorporate those factors of highest potential value. We performed a search in PubMed for studies published through April 2011 that analysed the association between independent variables and DFU. Articles were selected by two investigators-independently and blind to each other. Divergences were solved by a third investigator. A total of 71 studies were included that evaluated the association between diabetic foot ulceration and more than 100 independent variables. The variables most frequently assessed were age, gender, diabetes duration, BMI, HbA(1c) and neuropathy. Diabetic foot ulceration prevalence varied greatly among studies. The majority of the identified variables were assessed by only two or fewer studies. Diabetic neuropathy, peripheral vascular disease, foot deformity and previous diabetic foot ulceration or lower extremity amputation - which are the most common variables included in risk stratification systems - were consistently associated with diabetic foot ulceration development. Existing diabetic foot ulceration risk stratification systems often include variables shown repeatedly in the literature to be strongly predictive of this outcome. Improvement of these risk classification systems though is impaired because of deficiencies noted, including a great lack of standardization in outcome definition and variable selection and measurement.

Arm length is associated with type 2 diabetes mellitus in Japanese-Americans.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: The aim of the study was to examine the association of type 2 diabetes mellitus with arm length as a marker for early life environment and development. METHODS: This was a cross-sectional analysis of 658 second- and third-generation Japanese-Americans (349 men and 309 women). Different arm length (total, upper and forearm length) and leg length (total and lower leg length) measurements were performed. Type 2 diabetes was defined by the use of hypoglycaemic medication, fasting plasma glucose (FPG) ≥ 7 mmol/l or glucose at 2 h ≥ 11.1 mmol/l during an OGTT. Persons meeting the criteria for impaired glucose tolerance were excluded from these analyses (FPG <7 mmol/l and 2 h glucose during an OGGT <11.1 but ≥ 7.8 mmol/l). Multivariable logistic regression was used to estimate associations between prevalence of diabetes and limb length while adjusting for possible confounders. RESULTS: A total of 145 individuals had diabetes. On univariate analysis, arm and leg length were not associated with diabetes. After adjustment for age, sex, computed tomography-measured intra-abdominal fat area, height, weight, smoking status and family history of diabetes, total arm length and upper arm length were inversely related to diabetes (OR for a 1 SD increase 0.49, 95% CI 0.29, 0.84 for total arm length, and OR 0.56, 95% CI 0.36, 0.87 for upper arm length). Forearm length, height and leg length were not associated with diabetes after adjustment for confounding variables. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Our findings of associations between arm lengths and prevalence of type 2 diabetes supports a role for factors that determine bone growth or their correlates in the development of this condition.

Subcutaneous thigh fat area is unrelated to risk of type 2 diabetes in a prospective study of Japanese Americans.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Cross-sectional research has reported a negative association between subcutaneous thigh fat (STF) and type 2 diabetes prevalence but no prospective research on this association exists using direct measurements of STF obtained from imaging studies while adjusting for other fat depots. We studied the independent associations of intra-abdominal fat (IAF), subcutaneous abdominal fat (SAF) and STF with future risk of diabetes. METHODS: We prospectively followed 489 non-diabetic Japanese Americans (BMI 25.0-29.9 kg/m(2) 32.7%, ≥30.0 kg/m(2) 5.4%) over 10 years for the development of diabetes defined by use of hypoglycaemic medication or a fasting plasma glucose ≥7.0 mmol/l or 2 h ≥11.1 mmol/l during an OGTT. STF, SAF and IAF area were measured by computed tomography scan and mid-thigh circumference (TC) by tape measure at baseline. RESULTS: Over 10 years, 103 people developed diabetes. STF area was not independently associated with the odds of developing diabetes in a univariate or multiple logistic regression model (OR for a 1 SD increase 0.8 [95% CI 0.5, 1.2]) adjusted for age, sex, BMI, IAF and SAF. The only fat depot associated with diabetes odds in this model was IAF. TC was borderline significantly associated with a lower odds of developing diabetes (0.7 [95% CI 0.5, 1.0], p = 0.052). CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Similar to other research, TC was negatively associated with diabetes risk, whereas STF was not, arguing that the negative association between TC and diabetes observed in other research is not due to STF mass. IAF area emerged as the only measured fat depot that was independently associated with type 2 diabetes risk.

Greater hand-grip strength predicts a lower risk of developing type 2 diabetes over 10 years in leaner Japanese Americans.

AIMS: Much is known about body composition and type 2 diabetes risk but less about body function such as strength. We assessed whether hand-grip strength predicted incident diabetes. METHODS: We followed 394 nondiabetic Japanese-American subjects (mean age 51.9) for the development of diabetes. We fit a logistic regression model to examine the association between hand-grip strength at baseline and type 2 diabetes risk over 10 years, adjusted for age, sex, and family history. RESULTS: A statistically significant (p = 0.008) and negative (coefficient -0.208) association was observed between hand-grip strength and diabetes risk that diminished at higher BMI levels. Adjusted ORs for a 10-pound hand-grip strength increase with BMI set at the 25th, 50th or 75th percentiles were 0.68, 0.79, and 0.98, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Among leaner individuals, greater hand-grip strength was associated with lower risk of type 2 diabetes, suggesting it may be a useful marker of risk in this population.

Risk stratification systems for diabetic foot ulcers: a systematic review.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Several risk stratification systems have been proposed for predicting development of diabetic foot ulcer. However, little has been published that assesses their similarities and disparities, diagnostic accuracy and evidence level. Consequently, we conducted a systematic review of the existing stratification systems. METHODS: We searched the MEDLINE database for studies (published until April 2010) describing the creation and validation of risk stratification systems for prediction of diabetic foot ulcer development. RESULTS: We included 13 studies describing or evaluating the following different risk degree stratification systems: University of Texas; International Working Group on Diabetic Foot; Scottish Intercollegiate Guideline Network (SIGN); American Diabetes Association; and Boyko and colleagues. We confirmed that five variables were included in almost all the systems: diabetic neuropathy, peripheral vascular disease, foot deformity, and previous foot ulcer and amputation. The number of variables included ranged from four to eight and the number of risk groups from two to six. Only four studies reported or allowed the calculation of diagnostic accuracy measures. The SIGN system showed some higher diagnostic accuracy values, particularly positive likelihood ratio, while predictive ability was confirmed through external validation only in the system of Boyko et al. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Foot ulcer risk stratification systems are a much needed tool for screening patients with diabetes. The core variables of various systems are very similar, but the number of included variables in each model and risk groups varied greatly. Overall, the quality of evidence for these systems is low, as little validation of their predictive ability has been done.

Effects of ethnicity on diabetes incidence and prevention: results of the Diabetes REduction Assessment with ramipril and rosiglitazone Medication (DREAM) trial.

AIMS: Risk of Type 2 diabetes varies by ethnicity, but whether ethnicity remains important among those who have impaired glucose tolerance or impaired fasting glucose is uncertain. Whether the effect of thiazolidinedione treatment on diabetes prevention in persons with non-diabetic dysglycaemia varies by ethnicity is also not known. We addressed these questions using data collected in the DREAM trial. METHODS: A 2-by-2 factorial double-blind randomized controlled trial to compare the effects of rosiglitazone and ramipril on the primary outcome of diabetes or death in persons meeting criteria for impaired glucose tolerance or impaired fasting glucose. The effect of these interventions by ethnicity was estimated using Cox regression analysis. RESULTS: Of 5269 adults, 2365 were randomly assigned to rosiglitzone and 2634 to placebo. South Asians showed a higher hazard for the primary outcome compared with Europeans (hazard ratio, 95% confidence interval 2.21, 1.41-3.47) adjusted for age, gender, BMI, waist-hip ratio and geographic region. A lesser increase in risk was seen in Black people (1.37, 1.04-1.81). A significant reduction in risk of the primary outcome with rosiglitazone treatment assignment was seen in all ethnic groups, but the treatment effect significantly differed by ethnicity (P=0.0242), with South Asians experiencing a smaller, and Latinos a larger preventive effect. CONCLUSIONS: Ethnicity is an important risk factor for Type 2 diabetes in dysglycaemic persons. All ethnic groups experienced a large significant reduction in diabetes risk because of rosiglitazone. The magnitude of this reduction differed by ethnicity. Given the post hoc nature of this analysis, further confirmation of these findings is needed.

Does abnormal insulin action or insulin secretion explain the increase in prevalence of impaired glucose metabolism with age in populations of different ethnicities?

BACKGROUND: Age is associated with both impaired glucose and insulin metabolism. To what extent the age-related changes in insulin resistance (IR) and beta-cell function contribute to the increase in prevalence of impaired fasting glucose (IFG) and impaired glucose tolerance (IGT) is less known, and this is investigated in this study. METHODS: This study included 6610 men and 7664 women of different ethnic groups aged 30-69 years. IR and beta-cell function were examined by the homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) and homeostasis model assessment of beta-cell function (HOMA-B). Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) were estimated using logistic regression analysis adjusting for body mass index and study. RESULTS: In Chinese men, the ORs (95% CIs) for IFG were 2.69 (1.70, 4.26), 2.51 (1.49, 4.21) and 2.89 (1.68, 4.97), respectively, in age groups of 40-49, 50-59 and 60-69 years compared with 30-39 years (p < 0.001 for trend); the corresponding figures for IGT were 1.73 (1.25, 2.38), 2.54 (1.78, 3.63) and 3.57 (2.46, 5.19) (p < 0.001 for trend). Similar trends for IGT were observed also in Chinese women and other ethnic groups, but not for IFG in Mauritius Indian and Creole men. Adjustment for HOMA-IR and HOMA-B reduced the ORs in all age groups of all ethnicities for both IFG and IGT, but the risk gradient between age groups remained particularly for the IGT. CONCLUSIONS: The age-related increase in glucose intolerance may not be fully explained by the defect in HOMA-IR and HOMA-B. As HOMA-IR and HOMA-B are only surrogate measures of insulin sensitivity and insulin secretion, the results need to be further investigated.