Improving species status assessments under the U.S. Endangered Species Act and implications for multispecies conservation challenges worldwide.

Despite its successes, the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA) has proven challenging to implement due to funding limitations, workload backlog, and other problems. As threats to species survival intensify and as more species come under threat, the need for the ESA and similar conservation laws and policies in other countries to function efficiently has grown. Attempts by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) to streamline ESA decisions include multispecies recovery plans and habitat conservation plans. We address species status assessment (SSA), a USFWS process to inform ESA decisions from listing to recovery, within the context of multispecies and ecosystem planning. Although existing SSAs have a single-species focus, ecosystem-based research can efficiently inform multiple SSAs within a region and provide a foundation for transition to multispecies SSAs in the future. We considered at-risk grassland species and ecosystems within the southeastern United States, where a disproportionate number of rare and endemic species are associated with grasslands. To initiate our ecosystem-based approach, we used a combined literature-based and structured World Café workshop format to identify science needs for SSAs. Discussions concentrated on 5 categories of threats to grassland species and ecosystems, consistent with recommendations to make shared threats a focus of planning under the ESA: (1) habitat loss, fragmentation, and disruption of functional connectivity; (2) climate change; (3) altered disturbance regimes; (4) invasive species; and (5) localized impacts. For each threat, workshop participants identified science and information needs, including database availability, research priorities, and modeling and mapping needs. Grouping species by habitat and shared threats can make the SSA process and other planning processes for conservation of at-risk species worldwide more efficient and useful. We found a combination of literature review and structured discussion effective for identifying the scientific information and analysis needed to support the development of multiple SSAs. Article impact statement: Species status assessments can be improved by an ecosystem-based approach that groups imperiled species by shared habitats and threats.

Mejoramiento de la Evaluación del Estado de una Especie bajo el Acta de Especies en Peligro de los Estados Unidos y Sus Consecuencias para los Retos de la Conservación Multiespecie a Nivel Mundial Resumen A pesar de su éxito, el Acta de Especies en Peligro de los E.U.A. (AEP) ha sido un reto de implementación por las limitaciones en su financiamiento, el retraso en la carga de trabajo y otros problemas. Conforme se intensifican las amenazas a la supervivencia de las especies y más especies resultan amenazadas, aumenta la necesidad de que la AEP y las políticas similares de otros países funcionen efectivamente. Los intentos por parte del Servicio Estadounidense de Pesca y Fauna (SEPF) para optimizar las decisiones de la AEP incluyen planes multiespecie de recuperación y planes de conservación de hábitat (PRH). Abordamos la evaluación del estado de las especies (EEE), un proceso del SEPF para orientar las decisiones del AEP desde el listado hasta la recuperación, dentro del contexto de la planeación multiespecie y de ecosistemas. Aunque las EEE existentes tienen un enfoque sobre una única especie, la investigación basada en el ecosistema puede orientar eficientemente a múltiples EEE dentro de una región y proporcionar una base para la transición a las EEE multiespecie en el futuro. Consideramos a las especies y los ecosistemas en riesgo de los pastizales del sureste de los Estados Unidos, en donde un número desproporcionado de especies raras y endémicas está asociado con los pastizales. Para iniciar nuestra estrategia basada en el ecosistema, usamos un formato de taller de World Café estructurado y basado en la literatura para identificar la necesidad de tener EEE. Las discusiones se centraron en cinco categorías de amenazas para las especies y ecosistemas de los pastizales, consistentes con las recomendaciones para volver a las amenazas compartidas un foco de la planeación bajo la AEP: (1) pérdida del hábitat, fragmentación y disrupción de la conectividad funcional; (2) cambio climático; (3) regímenes alterados de perturbación; (4) especies invasoras; y (5) impactos localizados. Para cada amenaza, los participantes del taller identificaron las necesidades científicas y de información, incluyendo la disponibilidad de bases de datos, prioridades de la investigación y necesidades de modelado y mapeado. La agrupación de las especies por hábitat y amenaza compartida puede hacer más eficientes y útiles el proceso de EEE y otros procesos de planeación de la conservación de especies en riesgo a nivel mundial. Encontramos una combinación de revisiones bibliográficas y discusiones estructuradas para identificar la información y el análisis necesarios para respaldar el desarrollo de múltiples EEE.

High-resolution dynamically downscaled rainfall and temperature projections for ecological life zones within Puerto Rico and for the US Virgin Islands.

The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and a combination of the Regional Spectral Model (RSM) and the Japanese Meteorological Agency Non-Hydrostatic Model (NHM) were used to dynamically downscale selected CMIP5 global climate models to provide 2-km projections with hourly model output for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Two 20-year time slices were downscaled for historical (1986-2005) and future (2041-2060) periods following RCP8.5. Projected changes to mean and extreme temperature and precipitation were quantified for Holdridge life zones within Puerto Rico and for the U.S. Virgin Islands. The evaluation reveals a persistent cold bias for all islands in the U.S. Caribbean, a dry bias across Puerto Rico, and a wet bias on the windward side of mountains within the U.S. Virgin Islands. Despite these biases, model simulations show a robust drying pattern for all islands that is generally larger for Puerto Rico (25% annual rainfall reduction for some life zones) than the U.S. Virgin Islands (12% island average). The largest precipitation reductions are found during the more convectively active afternoon and evening hours. Within Puerto Rico, the model uncertainty increases for the wetter life zones, especially for precipitation. Across the life zones, both models project unprecedented maximum and minimum temperatures that may exceed 200 days annually above the historical baseline with only small changes to the frequency of extreme rainfall. By contrast, in the U.S. Virgin Islands, there is no consensus on the location of the largest drying relative to the windward and leeward side of the islands. However, the models project the largest increases in maximum temperature on the southern side of St. Croix and in higher elevations of St. Thomas and St. John.

Analysis of climate trends in North Carolina (1949-1998).

North Carolina has one of the most complex climates in the United States (U.S.). Analysis of the climate in this state is critical for agricultural and planning purposes. Climate patterns and trends in North Carolina are analyzed for the period 1949-1998. Precipitation, minimum temperature, and maximum temperature are analyzed on seasonal and annual time scales using data collected from the National Weather Service Cooperative Observer Network. Additionally, changes in patterns of occurrence of the last spring freeze and first fall freeze are investigated. Linear time series slopes are analyzed to investigate the spatial and temporal trends of climate variability in North Carolina. Spatial analysis of climate variability across North Carolina is performed using a geographic information system. While most trends are local in nature, there are general statewide patterns. Precipitation in North Carolina has increased over the past 50 years during the fall and winter seasons, but decreased during the summer. Temperatures during the last 10 years are warmer than average, but are not warmer than those experienced during the 1950s. The warm season has become longer, as measured by the dates of the last spring freeze and first fall freeze. Generally, the last 10 years were the wettest of the study period. These conclusions are consistent with earlier studies that show that the difference between the maximum and minimum temperatures is decreasing, possibly due to increased cloud cover and precipitation. Similarly, these results show that temperature patterns are in phase with the North Atlantic Oscillation and precipitation patterns appear to be correlated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.