Both acuity and long term prognosis are important Emergency Department metrics: comparison of mobility assessment with the Emergency Severity Index.

OBJECTIVE: To compare the SUHB mobility scale (i.e., stable(S), unstable gait(U), needing help to walk(H), or bedridden(B)) and the Emergency Severity Index (ESI) associations with admission and mortality outcomes. DESIGN: Post-hoc analysis of a prospective observational study including all consenting presenting to the ED over a period of 3 weeks. Odd ratios and AUCs were calculated to assess predictive performance of SUHB and compared with ESI. RESULTS: Out of 2422 patients, 65% presented with a stable gait, 45% with an ESI level 3. With increasing mobility impairment on the SUHB scale, the probability for admission and mortality increased. SUHB had a higher AUC than ESI for 1-year mortality. CONCLUSION: SUHB was a better predictor than ESI of long-term mortality. The scale, which is rapid, requires little additional training, and no extra costs, could be used as a useful supplement to the triage process.

The incidence and mortality of neutropenic fever in hematologic patients did not change during the SARS-CoV2 pandemic.

During the current SARS-CoV2 pandemic, fear of nosocomial infection could keep neutropenic patients from contacting the healthcare system with infection. We analyzed nationwide hospital contacts for neutropenic fever during the first seven weeks of the Danish shelter at home order. Using national registers, we extracted data on all unplanned hospital contacts due to neutropenic fever. We included 311 admissions, 13-30 per week, and found no difference between 2017-2019 and 2020. The incidence rate ratio varied between 0.68 and 1.11 with no effect on mortality. Thus, our data indicate that Danish neutropenic patients are admitted with fever, even during a pandemic.

Can the ECG be used to estimate age-related survival?

BACKGROUND: There are few reports of the relationship between electrocardiogram (ECG) findings and the age-related survival of acutely ill patients. AIM: This study compared the 1-year survival curves of patients attending two Danish emergency departments (EDs) with normal and abnormal ECGs. Patients were divided into age groups from 20 to 90 years of age, and an abnormal ECG was defined as low QRS voltage (i.e. lead I + II <1.4 mV) or QTc interval prolongation >434 ms. METHODS: A retrospective register-based observational study on 35 496 patients attending two Danish EDs, with 100% follow-up for 1 year. RESULTS: ECG abnormality increases linearly with age, and between 30 and 70 years of age. Patients aged 20-29 years with ECG abnormalities are more than four times more likely to die within a year than patients of the same age with a normal ECG. An individual with an abnormal ECG has the same risk of dying within a year as an individual with a normal ECG who is 10 years older. After 70 years of age this tight relationship ends, but for younger individuals with an abnormal ECG the increase in mortality is even higher. CONCLUSION: An ECG may be a simple practical estimate of age-related survival. For a patient under 70 years, an abnormal QRS voltage or a prolonged QTc interval may increase 1-year mortality to that of a patient ∼10 years older.

Elevated level of urea is a good predictor for 30-day all-cause mortality in acutely admitted medical patients.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the correlation between urea and mortality in acutely ill medical patients admitted to hospital. METHODS: We included consecutively admitted adult patients from the medical admission unit at a regional Danish hospital. Data on mortality was extracted. The association with 30-day mortality was described using cubic splines, and discriminatory power, crude association and adjusted analyses were performed. RESULTS: We included 5,894 patients, with a 30-day mortality of 5.6%. We found a dose-response relation between urea and 30-day mortality with an increase from 2.7% to 19.5% (p<0.001). CONCLUSION: Elevated urea is strongly associated with 30-day all-cause mortality in acutely admitted medical patients with acceptable discrimination and good calibration.

D-dimer levels for Risk Stratification in Patients with Suspected COVID-19 - A Prospective Observational Study.

BACKGROUND: Elevated D-dimer levels have been observed in COVID-19 and are of prognostic value, but have not been compared to an appropriate control group. METHODS: Observational cohort study including emergency patients with suspected or confirmed COVID-19. Logistic regression defined the association of D-dimer levels, COVID-19 positivity, age, and gender with 30-day-mortality. RESULTS: 953 consecutive patients (median age 58, 43% women) presented with suspected COVID-19: 12 (7.4%) patients with confirmed SARS-CoV-2-infection died, compared with 28 (3.5%) patients without SARS-CoV-2-infection. Overall, most (56%) patients had elevated D-dimer levels (≥0.5mg/l). Age (OR 1.07, CI 1.05-1.10), D-dimer levels ≥0.5mg/l (OR 2.44, CI 0.98-7.39), and COVID-19 (OR 2.79, CI 1.28-5.80) were associated with 30-day-mortality. CONCLUSION: D-dimer levels are effective prognosticators in both patient groups.

Clinical thermography at extreme temperatures.

Every day, emergency departments and acute medical units all over the world receive and assess thousands of patients. Most are stable, but a few require immediate stabilization. To identify these, all patients are routinely triaged and have vital signs measured. Our group has shown that thermographic images of the face can be an alternative method for identifying patients at increased risk of 30-day mortality. In our previous studies, the thermographic images were taken after the patients had been inside for at least 30 minutes. However, to identify patients at risk, the images have to be available as quickly as triage, i.e. at the door when the patient arrives. Therefore, we have performed a small study, with the aim of illustrating the effect of such heat-gradients on thermal images of the face.

Thermographic visualization of facial vasoconstriction is associated with 30-day all-cause mortality in medical patients; prospective observational two-site cohort study.

INTRODUCTION: Quick and reliable assessment of acute patients is required for accurate triage. The temperature gradient between core and peripheral temperature could possibly instantly provide information on circulatory status. METHODS: Adult medical patients, who did not receive supplementary oxygen, attending two emergency departments, had a thermographic image taken on arrival. The association between 30-day mortality and gradients was tested using logistic regression. RESULTS: 726 patients were studied, median age was 64 years and 14 (1.9%) died within 30 days. There was a significant association between mortality and temperature gradient, comparable to vital signs, age, and clinical intuition. CONCLUSION: Temperature gradient between nose and eye had an acceptable discriminatory power for 30-day all-cause mortality.

Evaluation of systemic vasoconstriction and prognosis using thermography: a systematic review.

PURPOSE: This systematic review investigates whether infrared thermography (IRT) can measure systemic vasoconstriction and addresses the value of IRT in assessing circulatory deficiency and prognoses. METHODS: Design was based on the PRISMA criteria and a systematic search of 6 databases was performed. RESULTS: Of 3,198 records, five articles were included. Three clinical studies were identified; two found significant correlations between IRT obtained temperatures and mortality. An experimental study found an association between peripheral temperature and stroke volume. An animal study found that central-peripheral temperature differences correlated with shock index, mean arterial pressure, and disease progression. CONCLUSIONS: Data from the most valid study suggests that central-peripheral temperature differences should be investigated further, both on its own, and integrated with other variables.

Testing the effects of checklists on team behaviour during emergencies on general wards: An observational study using high-fidelity simulation.

INTRODUCTION: Clinical teams struggle on general wards with acute management of deteriorating patients. We hypothesized that the Crisis Checklist App, a mobile application containing checklists tailored to crisis-management, can improve teamwork and acute care management. METHODS: A before-and-after study was undertaken in high-fidelity simulation centres in the Netherlands, Denmark and United Kingdom. Clinical teams completed three scenarios with a deteriorating patient without checklists followed by three scenarios using the Crisis Checklist App. Teamwork performance as the primary outcome was assessed by the Mayo High Performance Teamwork scale. The secondary outcomes were the time required to complete all predefined safety-critical steps, percentage of omitted safety-critical steps, effects on other non-technical skills, and users' self-assessments. Linear mixed models and a non-parametric survival test were conducted to assess these outcomes. RESULTS: 32 teams completed 188 scenarios. The Mayo High Performance Teamwork scale mean scores improved to 23.4 out of 32 (95% CI: 22.4-24.3) with the Crisis Checklist App compared to 21.4 (20.4-22.3) with local standard of care. The mean difference was 1.97 (1.34-2.6; p < 0.001). Teams that used the checklists were able to complete all safety-critical steps of a scenario in more simulations (40/95 vs 21/93 scenarios) and these steps were completed faster (stratified log-rank test χ2 = 8.0; p = 0.005). The self-assessments of the observers and users showed favourable effects after checklist usage for other non-technical skills including situational awareness, decision making, task management and communication. CONCLUSIONS: Implementation of a novel mobile crisis checklist application among clinical teams was associated in a simulated general ward setting with improved teamwork performance, and a higher and faster completion rate of predetermined safety-critical steps.

A change from high-flow to titrated oxygen therapy in the prehospital setting is associated with lower mortality in COPD patients with acute exacerbations: an observational cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to investigate 30-day mortality for COPD patients treated by ambulances in the period before and after implementation of a pre-hospital oxygen protocol. METHODS: Prehospital High-flow oxygen was used from April to September 2012 and titrated oxygen from April to September 2013. Primary outcome was 30-day mortality. RESULTS: 707 patients were included; 209 in the high-flow group and 498 in the titration group. Of these, 56 and 132 arrived with acute exacerbation (AE). Overall 30-day mortality was 11.5% vs. 9.4% (p=0.41), respectively. For patients with AE, it was 19.6% vs. 4.6% (p=0.001). CONCLUSION: Change of treatment protocol is associated with a lower 30-day mortality for patients registered with acute exacerbation, but not for all COPD patients.

Can the examination time in CT and conventional x-ray be reduced in an emergency department with integrated radiology unit? A retrospective study.

Quick radiological diagnosis is often needed in order to allow the clinicians to make a diagnosis. The purpose of this study was to measure examination time for radiology procedures before and after physical integration of a radiology unit in the ED. We retrospectively acquired data from the radiology information system and compared time from referral to end of radiological examination before and after physical integration of the radiology unit in the ED for 19,897 X-ray and 6,940 CT examinations. After integration examination time for X-ray examinations was reduced by 5 to 14 minutes (p<0.001). For CT head and chest examination time was reduced by 7 to 15 minutes (p<0.003) while examination time for CT abdomen was prolonged by 4 minutes (p=0.78).

Optimal measuring point for ST deviation in chest pain patients with possible acute coronary syndrome.

INTRODUCTION: In the ECG, significant ST elevation or depression according to specific amplitude criteria can be indicative of acute coronary syndrome (ACS). Guidelines state that the ST amplitude should be measured at the J point, but data to support that this is the optimal measuring point for ACS detection is lacking. We evaluated the impact of different measuring points for ST deviation on the diagnostic accuracy for ACS in unselected emergency department (ED) chest pain patients. MATERIAL AND METHODS: We included 14,148 adult patients with acute chest pain and an ECG recorded at a Swedish ED between 2010 and 2014. ST deviation was measured at the J point (STJ) and at 20, 40, 60 and 80 ms after the J point. A discharge diagnosis of ACS or not at the index visit was noted in all patients. RESULTS: In total, 1489 (10.5%) patients had ACS. ST amplitude criteria at STJ had a sensitivity of 28% and a specificity of 92% for ACS. With these criteria, the highest positive and negative predictive values for ACS were obtained near the J point, but the optimal point varied with ST deviation, age group and sex. The overall best measuring points were STJ and ST20. CONCLUSIONS: This study indicates that the diagnostic accuracy of the ECG criteria for ACS is very low in ED chest pain patients, and that the optimal measuring point for the ST amplitude in the detection of ACS differs between ST elevation and depression, and between patient subgroups.

Normal gait, albumin and d-dimer levels identify low risk emergency department patients: a prospective observational cohort study with 365-day 100% follow-up.

BACKGROUND: If survival could be reliably predicted many patients could be safely managed outside of hospital in an ambulatory care setting. AIM: Comparison of common laboratory findings, co-morbidities, mobility and vital signs as predictors of mortality of acutely ill emergency department (ED) attendees. DESIGN: Prospective observational study. METHODS: Secondary analysis of 1334 consenting acutely ill patients attending a Danish ED. RESULTS: 67 (5%) out of 1334 patients died within 100 days. After logistic regression seven predictors of 100 days mortality remained significant: an albumin level ≤34 gm/l, D-dimer level >0.51 mg/l, an Asadollahi score (based on admission laboratory data and age) ≥12, a platelet count <159 X 1000/ml, impaired mobility on presentation, a respiratory rate ≥30 bpm and a Charlson co-morbidity index ≥3. Only 5 of the 442 without any of these variables died within 365 days. Only one of the 517 patients with a stable independent gait and normal d-dimer and albumin levels died within 100 days, none died within 30 days of assessment and 12 died within 365 days. Of the remaining 817 patients 66 (8%) died within 100 days. CONCLUSION: These findings suggest that normal gait, albumin and d-dimer levels are the most parsimonious way of identifying low risk ED patients.

Fever increases heart rate and respiratory rate; a prospective observational study of acutely admitted medical patients.

BACKGROUND: The relationship between increase in body temperature, heart rate, and respiratory rate has only been studied in young, healthy subjects. AIM: To show the changes in heart and respiratory rate associated with fever in acutely admitted medical patients. DESIGN: A prospective observational cohort study. METHODS: Vital parameters from 4,493 patients were retrospectively extracted. Linear and multiple variable regression analysis was used to calculate the change in heart and temperature rate for every degree rise in temperature (i.e. ΔHR/°C and ΔRR/°C) in the entire study group and in those with low (<36.1°C), normal (36.1-38°C) and high (>38°C) body temperatures. RESULTS: The ΔHR/°C and ΔRR/°C was 7.2±0.4 beats per minute (bpm) and 1.4 ±0.1 (1.2 to 1.62) breaths per minute (bpm). Adjusting for age, oxygen saturation and mean blood pressure, the results were 6.4±0.4 (5.7 to 7.1) bpm and 1.2±0.1 (1.0 to 1.4) bpm. In low, normal and high body temperature the ΔHR/°C were 2.7±1.9, 6.9±1.9 and 7.4±0.9 bpm, respectively; for ΔRR/°C the values were -0.5±0.5, 1.5±0.5 and 2.3±0.3 bpm, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: We only found a modest association between fever and changes in heart rate and respiratory rate.

A negative D-dimer identifies patients at low risk of death within 30 days: a prospective observational emergency department cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the ability of a normal D-dimer level (<0.5 mg/l) to identify emergency department (ED) patients at low risk of 30-day all-cause mortality. DESIGN: In this prospective observational study, D-dimer levels of adult medical patients were assessed at arrival to the ED. Data on 30-day survival status were extracted from the Danish Civil Registration System with complete follow-up. SETTING: The Hospital of South West Jutland. PATIENTS: All patients aged 18 years or older who required any blood sample on a clinical indication on arrival to the ED. Participants were required to give written informed consent before enrollment. MAIN RESULTS: The study population of 1 518 patients with median age 66 years of which 49.4% were female. Of the 791 (52.1%) patients with normal D-dimer levels, 3 (0.4%) died within 30 days; one death resulted from an unrelated traumatic accident. Of the 727 (47.9%) patients with abnormal D-dimer levels (≥0.50 mg/l), 32 (4.4%) died within 30 days. Patients with normal D-dimer levels had a significantly lower 30-day mortality compared to patients with abnormal D-dimer levels (odds ratio 0.08, 95% CI 0.02-0.28): of the 35 patients who died within 30 days, 19 (54.3%) had normal or near normal vital signs when first assessed. CONCLUSION: Normal D-dimer levels identified patients at low risk of 30-day mortality. Since most patients who died within 30 days presented with normal or near normal vital signs, D-dimer levels appear to provide additional prognostic information.

The PARIS score can reliably predict 7-day all-cause mortality for both acute medical and surgical patients: an international validation study.

BACKGROUND: We believe errors in the risk assessment of acutely ill patients occur because only vital signs without concurrent functional capacity are considered. We, therefore, developed the PARIS risk score based on blood pressure, age, respiratory rate, loss of independence and oxygen saturation. AIM: Validation of the PARIS score in four independent cohorts from three countries. METHODS: Retrospective cohort study of acutely ill patients admitted to hospitals in Denmark, Ireland and Uganda. Vital signs and functional capacity (registered as ability to stand or walk or get into bed unaided) was recorded upon arrival. Patients were followed up for 7 days (Denmark and Ireland) or until discharge (Uganda) and mortality recorded. The discriminatory power (ability to identify patients at increased risk) was determined using area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUROC) and calibration (precision) using Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test. RESULTS: Out of 14 447 patients, 327 (2.3%) died within 7 days: median age was 59 (39-75) years and 7458 (51.8%) were female. Seven-day mortality increased from 0.3% with a score of 0-26.7% with a score of 5. The score's AUROC as 0.833 [95% confidence interval (95% CI) 0.811-0.856], 0.817 (95% CI 0.792-0.842) and 0.894 (95% CI 0.813-0.974) for all patients, medical patients and surgical patients, respectively. However, except for surgical patients, calibration of the score was poor. CONCLUSION: The PARIS score can identify both high and low risk acutely admitted medical and surgical patients, but calibration was poor for medical patients.

Changes in vital signs post discharge as a potential target for intervention to avoid readmission.

Readmissions are treated as adverse events in many healthcare systems. Causes can be physiological deterioration or breakdown of social support systems. We investigated data from a European multi-centre study of readmissions for changes in vital signs between index admission and readmission. Data sets were graded according to the National Early Warning Score (NEWS). Of 487 patients in whom NEWS could be calculated on discharge and again on re-admission, 39.6% had worse vital signs with a NEWS score difference ≥ 2 points while only 7.6% had improved by ≤ 2 points. Changes in individual vital signs of 20% or more were most common in respiratory rate and heart rate. Monitoring of respiratory rate and pulse rate post-discharge might predict some deteriorations.

Validation of the MARS: a combined physiological and laboratory risk prediction tool for 5- to 7-day in-hospital mortality.

BACKGROUND: The Medical Admission Risk System (MARS) uses 11 physiological and laboratory data and had promising results in its derivation study for predicting 5- and 7- day mortality. AIM: To perform an external independent validation of the MARS score. DESIGN: An unplanned secondary cohort study. METHODS: Patients admitted to the medical admission unit at The Hospital of South West Jutland were included from 2 October 2008 until 19 February 2009 and 23 February 2010 until 26 May 2010 were analysed. Validation of the MARS scores using 5- and 7- day mortality was the primary endpoint. RESULTS: Patients of 5858 were included in the study. Patients of 2923 (49.9%) were women with a median age of 65 years (15-107). The MARS score had an area under the receiving operator characteristic curve of 0.858 (95% CI: 0.831-0.884) for 5-day mortality and 0.844 (0.818-0.870) for 7 day mortality with poor calibration for both outcomes. CONCLUSION: The MARS score had excellent discriminatory power but poor calibration in predicting both 5- and 7-day mortality. The development of accurate combination physiological/laboratory data risk scores has the potential to improve the recognition of at risk patients.

Should impaired mobility on presentation be a vital sign?

INTRODUCTION: Vital signs are routinely used to assess acutely ill patients, but they do not detect all patients at risk of death. This retrospective multicenter cohort study compares the prediction of death by impaired mobility with age, co-morbidities, and vital sign changes. METHODS: On first assessment, patients from a combined cohort of 9684 Danish and Irish patients and a separate cohort of 1010 Ugandan patients were stratified by impaired mobility on presentation (IMOP), vital sign changes assessed by the National Early Warning Score (NEWS), the Charlson Co-morbidity Index, and age. RESULTS: Fourteen percent of Danish and Irish patients had IMOP compared with 42% of Ugandan patients. The odds ratios of IMOP for 7-day mortality were similar for both cohorts (i.e. 11.8, 95% CI 5.8-24.0 for Ugandan patients versus 6.7, 95% CI 5.0-9.0 for Danish and Irish patients). Univariate analysis of Ugandan patients showed that none of the parameters tested (i.e. low blood pressure, pulse, elevated respiratory rate, hypothermia, low oxygen saturation, old age, and coma) had a statistically higher odds ratio for either 7-day mortality than IMOP. Multivariate logistic regression analysis of Danish and Irish patients also showed that none of these parameters or the Charlson Co-morbidity Index had a statistically higher odds ratio than IMOP for either 7-day or 30-day mortality. CONCLUSION: Immobility on presentation is a vital sign and predicts mortality for acutely ill patients independently of the traditional vital signs, age, and co-morbidities.