Surgical or Endovascular Treatment of MCA Aneurysms: An Agreement Study.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: MCA aneurysms are still commonly clipped surgically despite the recent development of a number of endovascular tools and techniques. We measured clinical uncertainty by studying the reliability of decisions made for patients with middle cerebral artery (MCA) aneurysms. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A portfolio of 60 MCA aneurysms was presented to surgical and endovascular specialists who were asked whether they considered surgery or endovascular treatment to be an option, whether they would consider recruitment of the patient in a randomized trial, and whether they would provide their final management recommendation. Agreement was studied using κ statistics. Intrarater reliability was assessed with the same, permuted portfolio of cases of MCA aneurysm sent to the same specialists 1 month later. RESULTS: Surgical management was the preferred option for neurosurgeons (n = 844/1320; [64%] responses/22 raters), while endovascular treatment was more commonly chosen by interventional neuroradiologists (1149/1500 [76.6%] responses/25 raters). Interrater agreement was only "slight" for all cases and all judges (κ = 0.094; 95% CI, 0.068-0.130). Agreement was no better within specialties or with more experience. On delayed requestioning, 11 of 35 raters (31%) disagreed with themselves on at least 20% of cases. Surgical management and endovascular treatment were always judged to be a treatment option, for all patients. Trial participation was offered to patients 65% of the time. CONCLUSIONS: Individual clinicians did not agree regarding the best management of patients with MCA aneurysms. A randomized trial comparing endovascular with surgical management of patients with MCA aneurysms is in order.

Trends, seasonality and forecasts of pulmonary tuberculosis in Portugal.

SETTING: Tuberculosis (TB) is a global public health concern. Surveillance programmes present invaluable epidemiological information regarding its temporal evolution, particularly for pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB), the most common form of TB and the one that presents the greatest challenge in public health. OBJECTIVES: To characterise, model and predict monthly incidence rates for PTB in Portugal disaggregated by high/low-incidence areas, sex and age groups. DESIGN: PTB monthly incidence rates were estimated based on PTB cases diagnosed in 2000-2010, disaggregated by population and geographic characteristics. Seasonal-trend LOESS (STL) decomposition was employed to model trend and seasonality. Seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) models were fit to characterise series behaviour and forecast PTB monthly incidence rates. RESULTS: Overall, the time series showed a downward trend in and seasonality of PTB diagnosis, with a peak in March and a trough in December. The mean seasonal amplitude was consistently higher in high-incidence areas, in males and in adults aged 25-54 years. SARIMA models were found to adequately fit and forecast the time series, thus predicting trend and seasonal persistence. CONCLUSIONS: STL and SARIMA findings concurred and were accurate. Endemic PTB seems to be slowly declining and case diagnosis is likely seasonal, which can be expected to persist if past conditions continue.