Injury modelling for strategic planning in protecting the national infrastructure from terrorist explosive events.

Terrorist events in the form of explosive devices have occurred and remain a threat currently to the population and the infrastructure of many nations worldwide. Injuries occur from a combination of a blast wave, energised fragments, blunt trauma and burns. The relative preponderance of each injury mechanism is dependent on the type of device, distance to targets, population density and the surrounding environment, such as an enclosed space, to name but a few. One method of primary prevention of such injuries is by modification of the environment in which the explosion occurs, such as modifying population density and the design of enclosed spaces. The Human Injury Predictor (HIP) tool is a computational model which was developed to predict the pattern of injuries following an explosion with the goal to inform national injury prevention strategies from terrorist attacks. HIP currently uses algorithms to predict the effects from primary and secondary blast and allows the geometry of buildings to be incorporated. It has been validated using clinical data from the '7/7' terrorist attacks in London and the 2017 Manchester Arena terrorist event. Although the tool can be used readily, it will benefit from further development to refine injury representation, validate injury scoring and enable the prediction of triage states. The tool can assist both in the design of future buildings and methods of transport, as well as the situation of critical emergency services required in the response following a terrorist explosive event. The aim of this paper is to describe the HIP tool in its current version and provide a roadmap for optimising its utility in the future for the protection of national infrastructure and the population.

Torso body armour coverage defined according to feasibility of haemorrhage control within the prehospital environment: a new paradigm for combat trauma protection.

Developments in military personal armour have aimed to achieve a balance between anatomical coverage, protection and mobility. When death is likely to occur within 60 min of injury to anatomical structures without damage control surgery, then these anatomical structures are defined as 'essential'. However, the medical terminology used to describe coverage is challenging to convey in a Systems Requirements Document (SRD) for acquisition of new armour and to ultimately translate to the correct sizing and fitting of personal armour. Many of those with Ministry of Defence responsible for the procurement of personal armour and thereby using SRDs will likely have limited medical knowledge; therefore, the potentially complex medical terminology used to describe the anatomical boundaries must be translated into easily recognisable and measurable external landmarks. We now propose a complementary classification for ballistic protection coverage, termed threshold and objective, based on the feasibility of haemorrhage control within the prehospital environment.

Classifying the causes of morbidity and error following treatment of facial fractures.

Analysing morbidity and using this to improve the quality of patient care is an important component of clinical governance. Several methods of data collection and clinical analysis have been suggested, but to date none have been widely adopted. All adult patients sustaining facial fractures were prospectively identified between 01 March 2019 and 28 February 2020, and matched to those who required a return to theatre for surgical complications. Morbidity resulting in a return to theatre was determined using the Clavien-Dindo classification and the Northwestern University error ascribing method. During this period, return to theatre occurred for 33/285 (11.6%) procedures and 23/173 (13.3%) of patients being treated for facial fractures. According to the 27 procedures discussed, Clavien-Dindo Grade IIIb was most commonly found (20/27). Error in judgement (13/35) and nature of disease (12/35) were ascribed as the most common causes of error. Presence of a consultant was associated with increased odds of a return to theatre (p = 0.014). Standardised national data collection of morbidity and error is required for comparisons of outcomes within a single institution or between institutions. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first paper to utilise these widely used methods of morbidity analysis for facial fracture surgery. We would recommend further development of an error analysis method that is more specific to complications from facial fracture surgery.

Sizing of ballistic arm protection for the VIRTUS body armour and load carriage system.

INTRODUCTION: Severe haemorrhage from the arm that is unresponsive to direct pressure necessitates the application of a tourniquet. Detachable arm protection, referred to as brassards, are used by the UK Armed Forces to protect the upper arm from fragmentation threats. However, the coverage they originally provided was based on limited medical evidence. Medical consensus has determined that the dimensions of arm protection should in future be related to how far up the arm a tourniquet can be applied. METHOD: CT scans of 120 male Armed Forces personnel were analysed to ascertain the vertical distances from acromion process to the point at which a tourniquet can applied, equating to the anterior axillary fold. These values were statistically compared with those derived from the 2007 UK Military anthropometric survey using a paired t-test. Additional distances were added to account for tourniquet width and slippage, with the total value compared with VIRTUS brassard length. RESULTS: No significant difference (p<0.01) was found in mean acromion to axilla length (114 mm) compared with that found in the anthropometric survey confirming sample validity. The deltoid insertion lay 24 mm below the axillary fold for the 50th percentile value from CT. Essential arm coverage for the 99th percentile male in this study was calculated as 201 mm. CONCLUSIONS: Based on this research, a single new brassard for the VIRTUS body armour and load carriage system was recommended and manufactured based on the 99th percentile. This is over 30% shorter than the existing VIRTUS brassard, reducing the overall weight burden for the soldier and improving heat dispersion, integration and interoperability. The new brassard has been issued to Armed Forces personnel since October 2018. The reduced mass of ballistic protective material in conjunction with requiring only a single size of brassard has already saved the Ministry of Defence £20 000 in procurement costs.

Determining the optimum anatomical coverage of side plates for the VIRTUS body armour and load carriage system.

INTRODUCTION: Side plates are worn by UK Armed Forces as part of the VIRTUS body armour and load carriage systems to protect the thorax and abdomen from high-velocity threats. The VIRTUS project has provided the impetus to objectively demonstrate the anatomical coverage provided by side plates. METHOD: CT scans of 120 male UK Armed Forces personnel were analysed to ascertain the vertical distance between the anterior axillary fold and iliac crest, and horizontal distance between anterior and posterior borders of the liver, delineating the boundaries of essential medical coverage from the side aspects. The percentage of shot-lines intersected by the existing Enhanced Combat Body Armour (ECBA) plates as well as an optimised plate based on the maximum potential dimensions of essential coverage was determined in the Coverage of Armour Tool. RESULTS: ECBA plates were 101 mm shorter and 4 mm narrower than a plate with dimensions providing essential medical coverage for the 50th percentile subject (157×315 mm). Coverage increased by 35% when using two ECBA plates as side coverage in addition to using the front and rear OSPREY plates in the VIRTUS vest. Two side plates with dimensions providing essential medical coverage for the 50th percentile increased anatomical coverage by a further 16%. CONCLUSIONS: This analysis has provided strong evidence that ECBA plates are already optimised for side protection, despite not being originally designed for this purpose. They are correctly positioned within the VIRTUS soft body armour vest and the width of the ECBA plate is only 3% less than what would be optimum size for the 50th percentile. Although the height of the plate could be increased to further enhance the anatomical coverage, it is unlikely that this would be acceptable in terms of the human factors, equipment integration or additional mass.

Mapping the Risk of Fracture of the Tibia From Penetrating Fragments.

Penetrating injuries are commonly inflicted in attacks with explosive devices. The extremities, and especially the leg, are the most commonly affected body areas, presenting high risk of infection, slow recovery, and threat of amputation. The aim of this study was to quantify the risk of fracture to the anteromedial, posterior, and lateral aspects of the tibia from a metal fragment-simulating projectile (FSP). A gas gun system and a 0.78-g cylindrical FSP were employed to perform tests on an ovine tibia model. The results from the animal study were subsequently scaled to obtain fracture-risk curves for the human tibia using the cortical thickness ratio. The thickness of the surrounding soft tissue was also taken into account when assessing fracture risk. The lateral cortex of the tibia was found to be most susceptible to fracture, whose impact velocity at 50% risk of EF1+, EF2+, EF3+, and EF4+ fracture types - according to the modified Winquist-Hansen classification - were 174, 190, 212, and 282 m/s, respectively. The findings of this study will be used to increase the fidelity of predictive models of projectile penetration.

The risk of fracture to the tibia from a fragment simulating projectile.

Penetrating injuries due to fragments energised by an explosive event are life threatening and are associated with poor clinical and functional outcomes. The tibia is the long bone most affected in survivors of explosive events, yet the risk of penetrating injury to it has not been quantified. In this study, an injury-risk assessment of penetrating injury to the tibia was conducted using a gas-gun system with a 0.78-g cylindrical fragment simulating projectile. An ovine tibia model was used to generate the injury-risk curves and human cadaveric tests were conducted to validate and scale the results of the ovine model. The impact velocity at 50% risk (±95% confidence intervals) for EF1+, EF2+, EF3+, and EF4+ fractures to the human tibia - using the modified Winquist-Hansen classification - was 271 ± 30, 363 ± 46, 459 ± 102, and 936 ± 182 m/s, respectively. The scaling factor for the impact velocity from cadaveric ovine to human was 2.5. These findings define the protection thresholds to improve the injury outcomes for fragment penetrating injury to the tibia.

Injury representation against ballistic threats using three novel numerical models.

Injury modelling of ballistic threats is a valuable tool for informing policy on personal protective equipment and other injury mitigation methods. Currently, the Ministry of Defence (MoD) and Centre for Protection of National Infrastructure (CPNI) are focusing on the development of three interlinking numerical models, each of a different fidelity, to answer specific questions on current threats. High-fidelity models simulate the physical events most realistically, and will be used in the future to test the medical effectiveness of personal armour systems. They are however generally computationally intensive, slow running and much of the experimental data to base their algorithms on do not yet exist. Medium fidelity models, such as the personnel vulnerability simulation (PVS), generally use algorithms based on physical or engineering estimations of interaction. This enables a reasonable representation of reality and greatly speeds up runtime allowing full assessments of the entire body area to be undertaken. Low-fidelity models such as the human injury predictor (HIP) tool generally use simplistic algorithms to make injury predictions. Individual scenarios can be run very quickly and hence enable statistical casualty assessments of large groups, where significant uncertainty concerning the threat and affected population exist. HIP is used to simulate the blast and penetrative fragmentation effects of a terrorist detonation of an improvised explosive device within crowds of people in metropolitan environments. This paper describes the collaboration between MoD and CPNI using an example of all three fidelities of injury model and to highlight future areas of research that are required.

Defining the minimum anatomical coverage required to protect the axilla and arm against penetrating ballistic projectiles.

INTRODUCTION: Defining the minimum anatomical structural coverage required to protect from ballistic threats is necessary to enable objective comparisons between body armour designs. Current protection for the axilla and arm is in the form of brassards, but no evidence exists to justify the coverage that should be provided by them. METHOD: A systematic review was undertaken to ascertain which anatomical components within the arm or axilla would be highly likely to lead to either death within 60 min or would cause significant long-term morbidity. RESULTS: Haemorrhage from vascular damage to the axillary or brachial vessels was demonstrated to be the principal cause of mortality from arm trauma on combat operations. Peripheral nerve injuries are the primary cause of long-term morbidity and functional disability following upper extremity arterial trauma. DISCUSSION: Haemorrhage is managed through direct pressure and the application of a tourniquet. It is therefore recommended that the minimum coverage should be the most proximal extent to which a tourniquet can be applied. Superimposition of OSPREY brassards over these identified anatomical structures demonstrates that current coverage provided by the brassards could potentially be reduced.