Ecological Speciation Promoted by Divergent Regulation of Functional Genes Within African Cichlid Fishes.

Rapid ecological speciation along depth gradients has taken place repeatedly in freshwater fishes, yet molecular mechanisms facilitating such diversification are typically unclear. In Lake Masoko, an African crater lake, the cichlid Astatotilapia calliptera has diverged into shallow-littoral and deep-benthic ecomorphs with strikingly different jaw structures within the last 1,000 years. Using genome-wide transcriptome data, we explore two major regulatory transcriptional mechanisms, expression and splicing-QTL variants, and examine their contributions to differential gene expression underpinning functional phenotypes. We identified 7,550 genes with significant differential expression between ecomorphs, of which 5.4% were regulated by cis-regulatory expression QTLs, and 9.2% were regulated by cis-regulatory splicing QTLs. We also found strong signals of divergent selection on differentially expressed genes associated with craniofacial development. These results suggest that large-scale transcriptome modification plays an important role during early-stage speciation. We conclude that regulatory variants are important targets of selection driving ecologically relevant divergence in gene expression during adaptive diversification.

Adaptive divergence generates distinct plastic responses in two closely related Senecio species.

The evolution of plastic responses to external cues allows species to maintain fitness in response to the environmental variations they regularly experience. However, it remains unclear how plasticity evolves during adaptation. To test whether distinct patterns of plasticity are associated with adaptive divergence, we quantified plasticity for two closely related but ecologically divergent Sicilian daisy species (Senecio, Asteraceae). We sampled 40 representative genotypes of each species from their native range on Mt. Etna and then reciprocally transplanted multiple clones of each genotype into four field sites along an elevational gradient that included the native elevational range of each species, and two intermediate elevations. At each elevation, we quantified survival and measured leaf traits that included investment (specific leaf area), morphology, chlorophyll fluorescence, pigment content, and gene expression. Traits and differentially expressed genes that changed with elevation in one species often showed little changes in the other species, or changed in the opposite direction. As evidence of adaptive divergence, both species performed better at their native site and better than the species from the other habitat. Adaptive divergence is, therefore, associated with the evolution of distinct plastic responses to environmental variation, despite these two species sharing a recent common ancestor.

Social and physical environment independently affect oviposition decisions in Drosophila.

In response to environmental stimuli, including variation in the presence of conspecifics, genotypes show highly plastic responses in behavioral and physiological traits influencing reproduction. Although extensively documented in males, such female responses are rather less studied. We expect females to be highly responsive to environmental variation and to differentially allocate resources to increase offspring fitness, given the major contribution of mothers to offspring number, size, and developmental conditions. Using Drosophila melanogaster, we (a) manipulate exposure to conspecific females, which mothers could use to anticipate the number of potential mates and larval density, and; (b) test how this interacts with the spatial distribution of potential oviposition sites, with females from higher densities expected to prefer clustered resources that can support a larger number of larvae. We found that high density females were slower to start copulating and reduced their copulation duration, the opposite effect to that observed in males. There was a parallel, perhaps related, effect on egg production: females previously housed in groups laid fewer eggs than those housed in solitude. Resource patchiness also influenced oviposition behavior: females preferred aggregated substrate, which attracted more females to lay eggs. However, we found no interaction between prior housing conditions and resource patchiness, indicating that females did not perceive the value of different resource distributions differently when exposed to environments that could signal expected levels of larval competition. We show that, although exposure to consexual competition changes copulatory behaviors of females, the distribution of oviposition resources has a greater effect on oviposition decisions.

Haplotype tagging reveals parallel formation of hybrid races in two butterfly species.

Genetic variation segregates as linked sets of variants or haplotypes. Haplotypes and linkage are central to genetics and underpin virtually all genetic and selection analysis. Yet, genomic data often omit haplotype information due to constraints in sequencing technologies. Here, we present "haplotagging," a simple, low-cost linked-read sequencing technique that allows sequencing of hundreds of individuals while retaining linkage information. We apply haplotagging to construct megabase-size haplotypes for over 600 individual butterflies (Heliconius erato and H. melpomene), which form overlapping hybrid zones across an elevational gradient in Ecuador. Haplotagging identifies loci controlling distinctive high- and lowland wing color patterns. Divergent haplotypes are found at the same major loci in both species, while chromosome rearrangements show no parallelism. Remarkably, in both species, the geographic clines for the major wing-pattern loci are displaced by 18 km, leading to the rise of a novel hybrid morph in the center of the hybrid zone. We propose that shared warning signaling (Müllerian mimicry) may couple the cline shifts seen in both species and facilitate the parallel coemergence of a novel hybrid morph in both comimetic species. Our results show the power of efficient haplotyping methods when combined with large-scale sequencing data from natural populations.

Longer photoperiods through range shifts and artificial light lead to a destabilizing increase in host-parasitoid interaction strength.

Many organisms are experiencing changing daily light regimes due to latitudinal range shifts driven by climate change and increased artificial light at night (ALAN). Activity patterns are often driven by light cycles, which will have important consequences for species interactions. We tested whether longer photoperiods lead to higher parasitism rates by a day-active parasitoid on its host using a laboratory experiment in which we independently varied daylength and the presence of ALAN. We then tested whether reduced nighttime temperature tempers the effect of ALAN. We found that parasitism rate increased with daylength, with ALAN intensifying this effect only when the temperature was not reduced at night. The impact of ALAN was more pronounced under short daylength. Increased parasitoid activity was not compensated for by reduced life span, indicating that increased daylength leads to an increase in total parasitism effects on fitness. To test the significance of increased parasitism rate for population dynamics, we developed a host-parasitoid model. The results of the model predicted an increase in time-to-equilibrium with increased daylength and, crucially, a threshold daylength above which interactions are unstable, leading to local extinctions. Here we demonstrate that ALAN impact interacts with daylength and temperature by changing the interaction strength between a common day-active consumer species and its host in a predictable way. Our results further suggest that range expansion or ALAN-induced changes in light regimes experienced by insects and their natural enemies will result in unstable dynamics beyond key tipping points in daylength.

Senecio as a model system for integrating studies of genotype, phenotype and fitness.

Two major developments have made it possible to use examples of ecological radiations as model systems to understand evolution and ecology. First, the integration of quantitative genetics with ecological experiments allows detailed connections to be made between genotype, phenotype, and fitness in the field. Second, dramatic advances in molecular genetics have created new possibilities for integrating field and laboratory experiments with detailed genetic sequencing. Combining these approaches allows evolutionary biologists to better study the interplay between genotype, phenotype, and fitness to explore a wide range of evolutionary processes. Here, we present the genus Senecio (Asteraceae) as an excellent system to integrate these developments, and to address fundamental questions in ecology and evolution. Senecio is one of the largest and most phenotypically diverse genera of flowering plants, containing species ranging from woody perennials to herbaceous annuals. These Senecio species exhibit many growth habits, life histories, and morphologies, and they occupy a multitude of environments. Common within the genus are species that have hybridized naturally, undergone polyploidization, and colonized diverse environments, often through rapid phenotypic divergence and adaptive radiation. These diverse experimental attributes make Senecio an attractive model system in which to address a broad range of questions in evolution and ecology.

Population variation in early development can determine ecological resilience in response to environmental change.

As climate change transforms seasonal patterns of temperature and precipitation, germination success at marginal temperatures will become critical for the long-term persistence of many plant species and communities. If populations vary in their environmental sensitivity to marginal temperatures across a species' geographical range, populations that respond better to future environmental extremes are likely to be critical for maintaining ecological resilience of the species. Using seeds from two to six populations for each of nine species of Mediterranean plants, we characterized patterns of among-population variation in environmental sensitivity by quantifying genotype-by-environment interactions (G × E) for germination success at temperature extremes, and under two light regimes representing conditions below and above the soil surface. For eight of nine species tested at hot and cold marginal temperatures, we observed substantial among-population variation in environmental sensitivity for germination success, and this often depended on the light treatment. Importantly, different populations often performed best at different environmental extremes. Our results demonstrate that ongoing changes in temperature regime will affect the phenology, fitness, and demography of different populations within the same species differently. We show that quantifying patterns of G × E for multiple populations, and understanding how such patterns arise, can test mechanisms that promote ecological resilience.

Strong divergent selection at multiple loci in two closely related species of ragworts adapted to high and low elevations on Mount Etna.

Recently diverged species present particularly informative systems for studying speciation and maintenance of genetic divergence in the face of gene flow. We investigated speciation in two closely related Senecio species, S. aethnensis and S. chrysanthemifolius, which grow at high and low elevations, respectively, on Mount Etna, Sicily and form a hybrid zone at intermediate elevations. We used a newly generated genome-wide single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) dataset from 192 individuals collected over 18 localities along an elevational gradient to reconstruct the likely history of speciation, identify highly differentiated SNPs, and estimate the strength of divergent selection. We found that speciation in this system involved heterogeneous and bidirectional gene flow along the genome, and species experienced marked population size changes in the past. Furthermore, we identified highly-differentiated SNPs between the species, some of which are located in genes potentially involved in ecological differences between species (such as photosynthesis and UV response). We analysed the shape of these SNPs' allele frequency clines along the elevational gradient. These clines show significantly variable coincidence and concordance, indicative of the presence of multifarious selective forces. Selection against hybrids is estimated to be very strong (0.16-0.78) and one of the highest reported in literature. The combination of strong cumulative selection across the genome and previously identified intrinsic incompatibilities probably work together to maintain the genetic and phenotypic differentiation between these species - pointing to the importance of considering both intrinsic and extrinsic factors when studying divergence and speciation.

Climate-induced phenology shifts linked to range expansions in species with multiple reproductive cycles per year.

Advances in phenology (the annual timing of species' life-cycles) in response to climate change are generally viewed as bioindicators of climate change, but have not been considered as predictors of range expansions. Here, we show that phenology advances combine with the number of reproductive cycles per year (voltinism) to shape abundance and distribution trends in 130 species of British Lepidoptera, in response to ~0.5 °C spring-temperature warming between 1995 and 2014. Early adult emergence in warm years resulted in increased within- and between-year population growth for species with multiple reproductive cycles per year (n = 39 multivoltine species). By contrast, early emergence had neutral or negative consequences for species with a single annual reproductive cycle (n = 91 univoltine species), depending on habitat specialisation. We conclude that phenology advances facilitate polewards range expansions in species exhibiting plasticity for both phenology and voltinism, but may inhibit expansion by less flexible species.

Local adaptation stops where ecological gradients steepen or are interrupted.

Population genetic models of evolution along linear environmental gradients cannot explain why adaptation stops at ecological margins. This is because, unless models impose reductions in carrying capacity at species' edges, the dominant effect of gene flow is to increase genetic variance and adaptive potential rather than swamping local adaptation. This allows the population to match even very steep changes in trait optima. We extend our previous simulations to explore two nonlinear models of ecological gradients: (a) a sigmoid (steepening) gradient and (b) a linear gradient with a flat centre of variable width. We compare the parameter conditions that allow local adaptation and range expansion from the centre, with those that permit the persistence of a perfectly adapted population distributed across the entire range. Along nonlinear gradients, colonization is easier, and extinction rarer, than along a linear gradient. This is because the shallow environmental gradient near the range centre does not cause gene flow to increase genetic variation, and so does not result in reduced population density. However, as gradient steepness increases, gene flow inflates genetic variance and reduces local population density sufficiently that genetic drift overcomes local selection, creating a finite range margin. When a flat centre is superimposed on a linear gradient, gene flow increases genetic variation dramatically at its edges, leading to an abrupt reduction in density that prevents niche expansion. Remarkably local interruptions in a linear ecological gradient (of a width much less than the mean dispersal distance) can prevent local adaptation beyond this flat centre. In contrast to other situations, this effect is stronger and more consistent where carrying capacity is high. Practically speaking, this means that habitat improvement at patch margins will make evolutionary rescue more likely. By contrast, even small improvements in habitat at patch centres may confine populations to limited areas of ecological space.

Evolutionary divergence in life history traits among populations of the Lake Malawi cichlid fish Astatotilapia calliptera.

During the early stages of adaptive radiation, populations diverge in life history traits such as egg size and growth rates, in addition to eco-morphological and behavioral characteristics. However, there are few studies of life history divergence within ongoing adaptive radiations. Here, we studied Astatotilapia calliptera, a maternal mouthbrooding cichlid fish within the Lake Malawi haplochromine radiation. This species occupies a rich diversity of habitats, including the main body of Lake Malawi, as well as peripheral rivers and shallow lakes. We used common garden experiments to test for life history divergence among populations, focussing on clutch size, duration of incubation, egg mass, offspring size, and growth rates. In a first experiment, we found significant differences among populations in average clutch size and egg mass, and larger clutches were associated with smaller eggs. In a second experiment, we found significant differences among populations in brood size, duration of incubation, juvenile length when released, and growth rates. Larger broods were associated with smaller juveniles when released and shorter incubation times. Although juvenile growth rates differed between populations, these were not strongly related to initial size on release. Overall, differences in life history characters among populations were not predicted by major habitat classifications (Lake Malawi or peripheral habitats) or population genetic divergence (microsatellite-based FST). We suggest that the observed patterns are consistent with local selective forces driving the observed patterns of trait divergence. The results provide strong evidence of evolutionary divergence and covariance of life history traits among populations within a radiating cichlid species, highlighting opportunities for further work to identify the processes driving the observed divergence.

Climates Past, Present, and Yet-to-Come Shape Climate Change Vulnerabilities.

Climate change is altering life at multiple scales, from genes to ecosystems. Predicting the vulnerability of populations to climate change is crucial to mitigate negative impacts. We suggest that regional patterns of spatial and temporal climatic variation scaled to the traits of an organism can predict where and why populations are most vulnerable to climate change. Specifically, historical climatic variation affects the sensitivity and response capacity of populations to climate change by shaping traits and the genetic variation in those traits. Present and future climatic variation can affect both climate change exposure and population responses. We provide seven predictions for how climatic variation might affect the vulnerability of populations to climate change and suggest key directions for future research.

Testing for local adaptation and evolutionary potential along altitudinal gradients in rainforest Drosophila: beyond laboratory estimates.

Predicting how species will respond to the rapid climatic changes predicted this century is an urgent task. Species distribution models (SDMs) use the current relationship between environmental variation and species' abundances to predict the effect of future environmental change on their distributions. However, two common assumptions of SDMs are likely to be violated in many cases: (i) that the relationship of environment with abundance or fitness is constant throughout a species' range and will remain so in future and (ii) that abiotic factors (e.g. temperature, humidity) determine species' distributions. We test these assumptions by relating field abundance of the rainforest fruit fly Drosophila birchii to ecological change across gradients that include its low and high altitudinal limits. We then test how such ecological variation affects the fitness of 35 D. birchii families transplanted in 591 cages to sites along two altitudinal gradients, to determine whether genetic variation in fitness responses could facilitate future adaptation to environmental change. Overall, field abundance was highest at cooler, high-altitude sites, and declined towards warmer, low-altitude sites. By contrast, cage fitness (productivity) increased towards warmer, lower-altitude sites, suggesting that biotic interactions (absent from cages) drive ecological limits at warmer margins. In addition, the relationship between environmental variation and abundance varied significantly among gradients, indicating divergence in ecological niche across the species' range. However, there was no evidence for local adaptation within gradients, despite greater productivity of high-altitude than low-altitude populations when families were reared under laboratory conditions. Families also responded similarly to transplantation along gradients, providing no evidence for fitness trade-offs that would favour local adaptation. These findings highlight the importance of (i) measuring genetic variation in key traits under ecologically relevant conditions, and (ii) considering the effect of biotic interactions when predicting species' responses to environmental change.

Coarse climate change projections for species living in a fine-scaled world.

Accurately predicting biological impacts of climate change is necessary to guide policy. However, the resolution of climate data could be affecting the accuracy of climate change impact assessments. Here, we review the spatial and temporal resolution of climate data used in impact assessments and demonstrate that these resolutions are often too coarse relative to biologically relevant scales. We then develop a framework that partitions climate into three important components: trend, variance, and autocorrelation. We apply this framework to map different global climate regimes and identify where coarse climate data is most and least likely to reduce the accuracy of impact assessments. We show that impact assessments for many large mammals and birds use climate data with a spatial resolution similar to the biologically relevant area encompassing population dynamics. Conversely, impact assessments for many small mammals, herpetofauna, and plants use climate data with a spatial resolution that is orders of magnitude larger than the area encompassing population dynamics. Most impact assessments also use climate data with a coarse temporal resolution. We suggest that climate data with a coarse spatial resolution is likely to reduce the accuracy of impact assessments the most in climates with high spatial trend and variance (e.g., much of western North and South America) and the least in climates with low spatial trend and variance (e.g., the Great Plains of the USA). Climate data with a coarse temporal resolution is likely to reduce the accuracy of impact assessments the most in the northern half of the northern hemisphere where temporal climatic variance is high. Our framework provides one way to identify where improving the resolution of climate data will have the largest impact on the accuracy of biological predictions under climate change.

Loss of adaptive variation during evolutionary responses to climate change.

The changes in species' geographical distribution demanded by climate change are often critically limited by the availability of key interacting species. In such cases, species' persistence will depend on the rapid evolution of biotic interactions. Understanding evolutionary limits to such adaptation is therefore crucial for predicting biological responses to environmental change. The recent poleward range expansion of the UK brown argus butterfly has been associated with a shift in female preference from its main host plant, rockrose (Cistaceae), onto Geraniaceae host plants throughout its new distribution. Using reciprocal transplants onto natural host plants across the UK range, we demonstrate reduced fitness of females from recently colonised Geraniaceae-dominated habitat when moved to ancestral rockrose habitats. By contrast, individuals from ancestral rockrose habitats show no reduction in fitness on Geraniaceae. Climate-driven range expansion in this species is therefore associated with the rapid evolution of biotic interactions and a significant loss of adaptive variation.

Evolution on the move: specialization on widespread resources associated with rapid range expansion in response to climate change.

Generalist species and phenotypes are expected to perform best under rapid environmental change. In contrast to this view that generalists will inherit the Earth, we find that increased use of a single host plant is associated with the recent climate-driven range expansion of the UK brown argus butterfly. Field assays of female host plant preference across the UK reveal a diversity of adaptations to host plants in long-established parts of the range, whereas butterflies in recently colonized areas are more specialized, consistently preferring to lay eggs on one host plant species that is geographically widespread throughout the region of expansion, despite being locally rare. By common-garden rearing of females' offspring, we also show an increase in dispersal propensity associated with the colonization of new sites. Range expansion is therefore associated with an increase in the spatial scale of adaptation as dispersive specialists selectively spread into new regions. Major restructuring of patterns of local adaptation is likely to occur across many taxa with climate change, as lineages suited to regional colonization rather than local success emerge and expand.

Arthropod diversity in a tropical forest.

Most eukaryotic organisms are arthropods. Yet, their diversity in rich terrestrial ecosystems is still unknown. Here we produce tangible estimates of the total species richness of arthropods in a tropical rainforest. Using a comprehensive range of structured protocols, we sampled the phylogenetic breadth of arthropod taxa from the soil to the forest canopy in the San Lorenzo forest, Panama. We collected 6144 arthropod species from 0.48 hectare and extrapolated total species richness to larger areas on the basis of competing models. The whole 6000-hectare forest reserve most likely sustains 25,000 arthropod species. Notably, just 1 hectare of rainforest yields >60% of the arthropod biodiversity held in the wider landscape. Models based on plant diversity fitted the accumulated species richness of both herbivore and nonherbivore taxa exceptionally well. This lends credence to global estimates of arthropod biodiversity developed from plant models.

Long-distance gene flow and adaptation of forest trees to rapid climate change.

Forest trees are the dominant species in many parts of the world and predicting how they might respond to climate change is a vital global concern. Trees are capable of long-distance gene flow, which can promote adaptive evolution in novel environments by increasing genetic variation for fitness. It is unclear, however, if this can compensate for maladaptive effects of gene flow and for the long-generation times of trees. We critically review data on the extent of long-distance gene flow and summarise theory that allows us to predict evolutionary responses of trees to climate change. Estimates of long-distance gene flow based both on direct observations and on genetic methods provide evidence that genes can move over spatial scales larger than habitat shifts predicted under climate change within one generation. Both theoretical and empirical data suggest that the positive effects of gene flow on adaptation may dominate in many instances. The balance of positive to negative consequences of gene flow may, however, differ for leading edge, core and rear sections of forest distributions. We propose future experimental and theoretical research that would better integrate dispersal biology with evolutionary quantitative genetics and improve predictions of tree responses to climate change.

Evidence for evolutionary change associated with the recent range expansion of the British butterfly, Aricia agestis, in response to climate change.

Poleward range expansions are widespread responses to recent climate change and are crucial for the future persistence of many species. However, evolutionary change in traits such as colonization history and habitat preference may also be necessary to track environmental change across a fragmented landscape. Understanding the likelihood and speed of such adaptive change is important in determining the rate of species extinction with ongoing climate change. We conducted an amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP)-based genome scan across the recently expanded UK range of the Brown Argus butterfly, Aricia agestis, and used outlier-based (DFDIST and BayeScan) and association-based (Isolation-By-Adaptation) statistical approaches to identify signatures of evolutionary change associated with range expansion and habitat use. We present evidence for (i) limited effects of range expansion on population genetic structure and (ii) strong signatures of selection at approximately 5% AFLP loci associated with both the poleward range expansion of A. agestis and differences in habitat use across long-established and recently colonized sites. Patterns of allele frequency variation at these candidate loci suggest that adaptation to new habitats at the range margin has involved selection on genetic variation in habitat use found across the long-established part of the range. Our results suggest that evolutionary change is likely to affect species' responses to climate change and that genetic variation in ecological traits across species' distributions should be maximized to facilitate range shifts across a fragmented landscape, particularly in species that show strong associations with particular habitats.

Novel variation associated with species range expansion.

When species shift their ranges to track climate change, they are almost certain to experience novel environments to which they are poorly adapted. Otaki and co-workers document an explosion of wing pattern variation accompanying range expansion in the pale grass blue butterfly. This pattern can be replicated in the laboratory using artificial selection on cold shocked pupae, at temperature extremes typical of recently colonized environments. We discuss how this phenotypic plasticity may be associated with successful colonization and how significant local adaptation is likely to re-establish developmental control. Integrating knowledge of trait plasticity into current genetic models of adaptation is central to our understanding of when and where a colonising population will be able to persist and adapt in novel surroundings.