Healthcare pathway discovery and probabilistic machine learning.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Healthcare pathways define the execution sequence of clinical activities as patients move through a treatment process, and they are critical for maintaining quality of care. The aim of this study is to combine healthcare pathway discovery with predictive models of individualized recovery times. The pathway discovery has a particular emphasis on producing pathway models that are easy to interpret for clinicians without a sufficient background in process mining. The predictive model takes the stochastic volatility of pathway performance indicators into account. METHOD: This study utilizes the business process-mining software ProM to design a process mining pipeline for healthcare pathway discovery and enrichment using hospital records. The efficacy of combining learned healthcare pathways with probabilistic machine learning models is demonstrated via a case study that applies the proposed process mining pipeline to discover appendicitis pathways from hospital records. Machine learning methodologies based on probabilistic programming are utilized to explore pathway features that influence patient recovery time. RESULTS: The produced appendicitis pathway models are easy for clinical interpretation and provide an unbiased overview of patient movements through the treatment process. Analysis of the discovered pathway model enables reasons for longer than usual treatment times to be explored and deviations from standard treatment pathways to be identified. A probabilistic regression model that estimates patient recovery time based on the information extracted by the process mining pipeline is developed and has the potential to be very useful for hospital scheduling purposes. CONCLUSION: This study establishes the application of the business process modelling tool ProM for the improvement of healthcare pathway mining methods. The proposed pipeline for healthcare pathway discovery has the potential to support the development of probabilistic machine learning models to further relate healthcare pathways to performance indicators such as patient recovery time.

FieldML, a proposed open standard for the Physiome project for mathematical model representation.

The FieldML project has made significant progress towards the goal of addressing the need to have open standards and open source software for representing finite element method (FEM) models and, more generally, multivariate field models, such as many of the models that are core to the euHeart project and the Physiome project. FieldML version 0.5 is the most recently released format from the FieldML project. It is an XML format that already has sufficient capability to represent the majority of euHeart's explicit models such as the anatomical FEM models and simulation solution fields. The details of FieldML version 0.5 are presented, as well as its limitations and some discussion of the progress being made to address these limitations.

Declarative representation of uncertainty in mathematical models.

An important aspect of multi-scale modelling is the ability to represent mathematical models in forms that can be exchanged between modellers and tools. While the development of languages like CellML and SBML have provided standardised declarative exchange formats for mathematical models, independent of the algorithm to be applied to the model, to date these standards have not provided a clear mechanism for describing parameter uncertainty. Parameter uncertainty is an inherent feature of many real systems. This uncertainty can result from a number of situations, such as: when measurements include inherent error; when parameters have unknown values and so are replaced by a probability distribution by the modeller; when a model is of an individual from a population, and parameters have unknown values for the individual, but the distribution for the population is known. We present and demonstrate an approach by which uncertainty can be described declaratively in CellML models, by utilising the extension mechanisms provided in CellML. Parameter uncertainty can be described declaratively in terms of either a univariate continuous probability density function or multiple realisations of one variable or several (typically non-independent) variables. We additionally present an extension to SED-ML (the Simulation Experiment Description Markup Language) to describe sampling sensitivity analysis simulation experiments. We demonstrate the usability of the approach by encoding a sample model in the uncertainty markup language, and by developing a software implementation of the uncertainty specification (including the SED-ML extension for sampling sensitivty analyses) in an existing CellML software library, the CellML API implementation. We used the software implementation to run sampling sensitivity analyses over the model to demonstrate that it is possible to run useful simulations on models with uncertainty encoded in this form.

The Cardiac Atlas Project--an imaging database for computational modeling and statistical atlases of the heart.

MOTIVATION: Integrative mathematical and statistical models of cardiac anatomy and physiology can play a vital role in understanding cardiac disease phenotype and planning therapeutic strategies. However, the accuracy and predictive power of such models is dependent upon the breadth and depth of noninvasive imaging datasets. The Cardiac Atlas Project (CAP) has established a large-scale database of cardiac imaging examinations and associated clinical data in order to develop a shareable, web-accessible, structural and functional atlas of the normal and pathological heart for clinical, research and educational purposes. A goal of CAP is to facilitate collaborative statistical analysis of regional heart shape and wall motion and characterize cardiac function among and within population groups. RESULTS: Three main open-source software components were developed: (i) a database with web-interface; (ii) a modeling client for 3D + time visualization and parametric description of shape and motion; and (iii) open data formats for semantic characterization of models and annotations. The database was implemented using a three-tier architecture utilizing MySQL, JBoss and Dcm4chee, in compliance with the DICOM standard to provide compatibility with existing clinical networks and devices. Parts of Dcm4chee were extended to access image specific attributes as search parameters. To date, approximately 3000 de-identified cardiac imaging examinations are available in the database. All software components developed by the CAP are open source and are freely available under the Mozilla Public License Version 1.1 (http://www.mozilla.org/MPL/MPL-1.1.txt). AVAILABILITY: http://www.cardiacatlas.org CONTACT: a.young@auckland.ac.nz SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

OpenCMISS: a multi-physics & multi-scale computational infrastructure for the VPH/Physiome project.

The VPH/Physiome Project is developing the model encoding standards CellML (cellml.org) and FieldML (fieldml.org) as well as web-accessible model repositories based on these standards (models.physiome.org). Freely available open source computational modelling software is also being developed to solve the partial differential equations described by the models and to visualise results. The OpenCMISS code (opencmiss.org), described here, has been developed by the authors over the last six years to replace the CMISS code that has supported a number of organ system Physiome projects. OpenCMISS is designed to encompass multiple sets of physical equations and to link subcellular and tissue-level biophysical processes into organ-level processes. In the Heart Physiome project, for example, the large deformation mechanics of the myocardial wall need to be coupled to both ventricular flow and embedded coronary flow, and the reaction-diffusion equations that govern the propagation of electrical waves through myocardial tissue need to be coupled with equations that describe the ion channel currents that flow through the cardiac cell membranes. In this paper we discuss the design principles and distributed memory architecture behind the OpenCMISS code. We also discuss the design of the interfaces that link the sets of physical equations across common boundaries (such as fluid-structure coupling), or between spatial fields over the same domain (such as coupled electromechanics), and the concepts behind CellML and FieldML that are embodied in the OpenCMISS data structures. We show how all of these provide a flexible infrastructure for combining models developed across the VPH/Physiome community.

Revision history aware repositories of computational models of biological systems.

BACKGROUND: Building repositories of computational models of biological systems ensures that published models are available for both education and further research, and can provide a source of smaller, previously verified models to integrate into a larger model. One problem with earlier repositories has been the limitations in facilities to record the revision history of models. Often, these facilities are limited to a linear series of versions which were deposited in the repository. This is problematic for several reasons. Firstly, there are many instances in the history of biological systems modelling where an 'ancestral' model is modified by different groups to create many different models. With a linear series of versions, if the changes made to one model are merged into another model, the merge appears as a single item in the history. This hides useful revision history information, and also makes further merges much more difficult, as there is no record of which changes have or have not already been merged. In addition, a long series of individual changes made outside of the repository are also all merged into a single revision when they are put back into the repository, making it difficult to separate out individual changes. Furthermore, many earlier repositories only retain the revision history of individual files, rather than of a group of files. This is an important limitation to overcome, because some types of models, such as CellML 1.1 models, can be developed as a collection of modules, each in a separate file. The need for revision history is widely recognised for computer software, and a lot of work has gone into developing version control systems and distributed version control systems (DVCSs) for tracking the revision history. However, to date, there has been no published research on how DVCSs can be applied to repositories of computational models of biological systems. RESULTS: We have extended the Physiome Model Repository software to be fully revision history aware, by building it on top of Mercurial, an existing DVCS. We have demonstrated the utility of this approach, when used in conjunction with the model composition facilities in CellML, to build and understand more complex models. We have also demonstrated the ability of the repository software to present version history to casual users over the web, and to highlight specific versions which are likely to be useful to users. CONCLUSIONS: Providing facilities for maintaining and using revision history information is an important part of building a useful repository of computational models, as this information is useful both for understanding the source of and justification for parts of a model, and to facilitate automated processes such as merges. The availability of fully revision history aware repositories, and associated tools, will therefore be of significant benefit to the community.

The Physiome Model Repository 2.

MOTIVATION: The Physiome Model Repository 2 (PMR2) software was created as part of the IUPS Physiome Project (Hunter and Borg, 2003), and today it serves as the foundation for the CellML model repository. Key advantages brought to the end user by PMR2 include: facilities for model exchange, enhanced collaboration and a detailed change history for each model. AVAILABILITY: PMR2 is available under an open source license at http://www.cellml.org/tools/pmr/; a fully functional instance of this software can be accessed at http://models.physiomeproject.org/.

Sharing and reusing cardiovascular anatomical models over the Web: a step towards the implementation of the virtual physiological human project.

Sharing and reusing anatomical models over the Web offers a significant opportunity to progress the investigation of cardiovascular diseases. However, the current sharing methodology suffers from the limitations of static model delivery (i.e. embedding static links to the models within Web pages) and of a disaggregated view of the model metadata produced by publications and cardiac simulations in isolation. In the context of euHeart--a research project targeting the description and representation of cardiovascular models for disease diagnosis and treatment purposes--we aim to overcome the above limitations with the introduction of euHeartDB, a Web-enabled database for anatomical models of the heart. The database implements a dynamic sharing methodology by managing data access and by tracing all applications. In addition to this, euHeartDB establishes a knowledge link with the physiome model repository by linking geometries to CellML models embedded in the simulation of cardiac behaviour. Furthermore, euHeartDB uses the exFormat--a preliminary version of the interoperable FieldML data format--to effectively promote reuse of anatomical models, and currently incorporates Continuum Mechanics, Image Analysis, Signal Processing and System Identification Graphical User Interface (CMGUI), a rendering engine, to provide three-dimensional graphical views of the models populating the database. Currently, euHeartDB stores 11 cardiac geometries developed within the euHeart project consortium.

An overview of the CellML API and its implementation.

BACKGROUND: CellML is an XML based language for representing mathematical models, in a machine-independent form which is suitable for their exchange between different authors, and for archival in a model repository. Allowing for the exchange and archival of models in a computer readable form is a key strategic goal in bioinformatics, because of the associated improvements in scientific record accuracy, the faster iterative process of scientific development, and the ability to combine models into large integrative models.However, for CellML models to be useful, tools which can process them correctly are needed. Due to some of the more complex features present in CellML models, such as imports, developing code ab initio to correctly process models can be an onerous task. For this reason, there is a clear and pressing need for an application programming interface (API), and a good implementation of that API, upon which tools can base their support for CellML. RESULTS: We developed an API which allows the information in CellML models to be retrieved and/or modified. We also developed a series of optional extension APIs, for tasks such as simplifying the handling of connections between variables, dealing with physical units, validating models, and translating models into different procedural languages.We have also provided a Free/Open Source implementation of this application programming interface, optimised to achieve good performance. CONCLUSIONS: Tools have been developed using the API which are mature enough for widespread use. The API has the potential to accelerate the development of additional tools capable of processing CellML, and ultimately lead to an increased level of sharing of mathematical model descriptions.

CellML metadata standards, associated tools and repositories.

The development of standards for encoding mathematical models is an important component of model building and model sharing among scientists interested in understanding multi-scale physiological processes. CellML provides such a standard, particularly for models based on biophysical mechanisms, and a substantial number of models are now available in the CellML Model Repository. However, there is an urgent need to extend the current CellML metadata standard to provide biological and biophysical annotation of the models in order to facilitate model sharing, automated model reduction and connection to biological databases. This paper gives a broad overview of a number of new developments on CellML metadata and provides links to further methodological details available from the CellML website.