Adaptation of sea turtles to climate warming: Will phenological responses be sufficient to counteract changes in reproductive output?

Sea turtles are vulnerable to climate change since their reproductive output is influenced by incubating temperatures, with warmer temperatures causing lower hatching success and increased feminization of embryos. Their ability to cope with projected increases in ambient temperatures will depend on their capacity to adapt to shifts in climatic regimes. Here, we assessed the extent to which phenological shifts could mitigate impacts from increases in ambient temperatures (from 1.5 to 3°C in air temperatures and from 1.4 to 2.3°C in sea surface temperatures by 2100 at our sites) on four species of sea turtles, under a "middle of the road" scenario (SSP2-4.5). Sand temperatures at sea turtle nesting sites are projected to increase from 0.58 to 4.17°C by 2100 and expected shifts in nesting of 26-43 days earlier will not be sufficient to maintain current incubation temperatures at 7 (29%) of our sites, hatching success rates at 10 (42%) of our sites, with current trends in hatchling sex ratio being able to be maintained at half of the sites. We also calculated the phenological shifts that would be required (both backward for an earlier shift in nesting and forward for a later shift) to keep up with present-day incubation temperatures, hatching success rates, and sex ratios. The required shifts backward in nesting for incubation temperatures ranged from -20 to -191 days, whereas the required shifts forward ranged from +54 to +180 days. However, for half of the sites, no matter the shift the median incubation temperature will always be warmer than the 75th percentile of current ranges. Given that phenological shifts will not be able to ameliorate predicted changes in temperature, hatching success and sex ratio at most sites, turtles may need to use other adaptive responses and/or there is the need to enhance sea turtle resilience to climate warming.

Understanding implications of consumer behavior for wildlife farming and sustainable wildlife trade.

Unsustainable wildlife trade affects biodiversity and the livelihoods of communities dependent upon those resources. Wildlife farming has been proposed to promote sustainable trade, but characterizing markets and understanding consumer behavior remain neglected but essential steps in the design and evaluation of such operations. We used sea turtle trade in the Cayman Islands, where turtles have been farm raised for human consumption for almost 50 years, as a case study to explore consumer preferences toward wild-sourced (illegal) and farmed (legal) products and potential conservation implications. Combining methods innovatively (including indirect questioning and choice experiments), we conducted a nationwide trade assessment through in-person interviews from September to December 2014. Households were randomly selected using disproportionate stratified sampling, and responses were weighted based on district population size. We approached 597 individuals, of which 37 (6.2%) refused to participate. Although 30% of households had consumed turtle in the previous 12 months, the purchase and consumption of wild products was rare (e.g., 64-742 resident households consumed wild turtle meat [i.e., 0.3-3.5% of households] but represented a large threat to wild turtles in the area due to their reduced populations). Differences among groups of consumers were marked, as identified through choice experiments, and price and source of product played important roles in their decisions. Despite the long-term practice of farming turtles, 13.5% of consumers showed a strong preference for wild products, which demonstrates the limitations of wildlife farming as a single tool for sustainable wildlife trade. By using a combination of indirect questioning, choice experiments, and sales data to investigate demand for wildlife products, we obtained insights about consumer behavior that can be used to develop conservation-demand-focused initiatives. Lack of data from long-term social-ecological assessments hinders the evaluation of and learning from wildlife farming. This information is key to understanding under which conditions different interventions (e.g., bans, wildlife farming, social marketing) are likely to succeed.

The effect of thermal variance on the phenotype of marine turtle offspring.

Temperature can have a profound effect on the phenotype of reptilian offspring, yet the bulk of current research considers the effects of constant incubation temperatures on offspring morphology, with few studies examining the natural thermal variance that occurs in the wild. Over two consecutive nesting seasons, we placed temperature data loggers in 57 naturally incubating clutches of loggerhead sea turtles Caretta caretta and found that greater diel thermal variance during incubation significantly reduced offspring mass, potentially reducing survival of hatchlings during their journey from the nest to offshore waters and beyond. With predicted scenarios of climate change, behavioral plasticity in nest site selection may be key for the survival of ectothermic species, particularly those with temperature-dependent sex determination.

Pan-atlantic analysis of the overlap of a highly migratory species, the leatherback turtle, with pelagic longline fisheries.

Large oceanic migrants play important roles in ecosystems, yet many species are of conservation concern as a result of anthropogenic threats, of which incidental capture by fisheries is frequently identified. The last large populations of the leatherback turtle, Dermochelys coriacea, occur in the Atlantic Ocean, but interactions with industrial fisheries could jeopardize recent positive population trends, making bycatch mitigation a priority. Here, we perform the first pan-Atlantic analysis of spatio-temporal distribution of the leatherback turtle and ascertain overlap with longline fishing effort. Data suggest that the Atlantic probably consists of two regional management units: northern and southern (the latter including turtles breeding in South Africa). Although turtles and fisheries show highly diverse distributions, we highlight nine areas of high susceptibility to potential bycatch (four in the northern Atlantic and five in the southern/equatorial Atlantic) that are worthy of further targeted investigation and mitigation. These are reinforced by reports of leatherback bycatch at eight of these sites. International collaborative efforts are needed, especially from nations hosting regions where susceptibility to bycatch is likely to be high within their exclusive economic zone (northern Atlantic: Cape Verde, Gambia, Guinea Bissau, Mauritania, Senegal, Spain, USA and Western Sahara; southern Atlantic: Angola, Brazil, Namibia and UK) and from nations fishing in these high-susceptibility areas, including those located in international waters.

Assessing wave energy effects on biodiversity: the wave hub experience.

Marine renewable energy installations harnessing energy from wind, wave and tidal resources are likely to become a large part of the future energy mix worldwide. The potential to gather energy from waves has recently seen increasing interest, with pilot developments in several nations. Although technology to harness wave energy lags behind that of wind and tidal generation, it has the potential to contribute significantly to energy production. As wave energy technology matures and becomes more widespread, it is likely to result in further transformation of our coastal seas. Such changes are accompanied by uncertainty regarding their impacts on biodiversity. To date, impacts have not been assessed, as wave energy converters have yet to be fully developed. Therefore, there is a pressing need to build a framework of understanding regarding the potential impacts of these technologies, underpinned by methodologies that are transferable and scalable across sites to facilitate formal meta-analysis. We first review the potential positive and negative effects of wave energy generation, and then, with specific reference to our work at the Wave Hub (a wave energy test site in southwest England, UK), we set out the methodological approaches needed to assess possible effects of wave energy on biodiversity. We highlight the need for national and international research clusters to accelerate the implementation of wave energy, within a coherent understanding of potential effects-both positive and negative.

Predicting the impacts of climate change on a globally distributed species: the case of the loggerhead turtle.

Marine turtles utilise terrestrial and marine habitats and several aspects of their life history are tied to environmental features that are altering due to rapid climate change. We overview the likely impacts of climate change on the biology of these species, which are likely centred upon the thermal ecology of this taxonomic group. Then, focusing in detail on three decades of research on the loggerhead turtle (Caretta caretta L.), we describe how much progress has been made to date and how future experimental and ecological focus should be directed. Key questions include: what are the current hatchling sex ratios from which to measure future climate-induced changes? What are wild adult sex ratios and how many males are necessary to maintain a fertile and productive population? How will climate change affect turtles in terms of their distribution?

Investigating potential for depensation in marine turtles: how low can you go?

Where mechanisms inherent within the biology of a species affect individual fitness at low density, demographic-scale depensation may occur, hastening further decline and leading ultimately to population extirpation and species extinction. Reduction in fertility at low population densities has been identified in marine and terrestrial species. Using data on hatch success and hatchling-emergence success as proxies for fertilization success, we conducted a global meta-analysis of data from breeding aggregations of green turtles (Chelonia mydas) and loggerhead turtles (Caretta caretta). We found that there has been no reduction in fertility in small nesting aggregations in either of these species worldwide. We considered mechanisms within the mating strategies and reproductive biology of marine turtles that may allow for novel genetic input and facilitate enhanced gene flow among rookeries. Behavioral reproductive mechanisms, such as natal philopatry and polyandry, may mitigate potential impacts of depensation and contribute to the resilience of these species.

Turtle groups or turtle soup: dispersal patterns of hawksbill turtles in the Caribbean.

Despite intense interest in conservation of marine turtles, spatial ecology during the oceanic juvenile phase remains relatively unknown. Here, we used mixed stock analysis and examination of oceanic drift to elucidate movements of hawksbill turtles (Eretmochelys imbricata) and address management implications within the Caribbean. Among samples collected from 92 neritic juvenile hawksbills in the Cayman Islands we detected 11 mtDNA control region haplotypes. To estimate contributions to the aggregation, we performed 'many-to-many' mixed stock analysis, incorporating published hawksbill genetic and population data. The Cayman Islands aggregation represents a diverse mixed stock: potentially contributing source rookeries spanned the Caribbean basin, delineating a scale of recruitment of 200-2500 km. As hawksbills undergo an extended phase of oceanic dispersal, ocean currents may drive patterns of genetic diversity observed on foraging aggregations. Therefore, using high-resolution Aviso ocean current data, we modelled movement of particles representing passively drifting oceanic juvenile hawksbills. Putative distribution patterns varied markedly by origin: particles from many rookeries were broadly distributed across the region, while others would appear to become entrained in local gyres. Overall, we detected a significant correlation between genetic profiles of foraging aggregations and patterns of particle distribution produced by a hatchling drift model (Mantel test, r = 0.77, P < 0.001; linear regression, r = 0.83, P < 0.001). Our results indicate that although there is a high degree of mixing across the Caribbean (a 'turtle soup'), current patterns play a substantial role in determining genetic structure of foraging aggregations (forming turtle groups). Thus, for marine turtles and other widely distributed marine species, integration of genetic and oceanographic data may enhance understanding of population connectivity and management requirements.

Trophic status drives interannual variability in nesting numbers of marine turtles.

Large annual fluctuations are seen in breeding numbers in many populations of non-annual breeders. We examined the interannual variation in nesting numbers of populations of green (Chelonia mydas) (n = 16 populations), loggerhead (Caretta caretta) (n = 10 populations), leatherback (Dermochelys coriacea) (n = 9 populations) and hawksbill turtles (Eretmochelys imbricata) (n = 10 populations). Interannual variation was greatest in the green turtle. When comparing green and loggerhead turtles nesting in Cyprus we found that green turtles were more likely to change the interval between laying seasons and showed greater variation in the number of clutches laid in a season. We suggest that these differences are driven by the varying trophic statuses of the different species. Green turtles are herbivorous, feeding on sea grasses and macro-algae, and this primary production will be more tightly coupled with prevailing environmental conditions than the carnivorous diet of the loggerhead turtle.

Metabolic heating and the prediction of sex ratios for green turtles (Chelonia mydas).

We compared incubation temperatures in nests (n=32) of the green turtle (Chelonia mydas) on Ascension Island in relation to sand temperatures of control sites at nest depth. Intrabeach thermal variation was low, whereas interbeach thermal variation was high in both control and nest sites. A marked rise in temperature was recorded in nests from 30% to 40% of the way through the incubation period and attributed to metabolic heating. Over the entire incubation period, metabolic heating accounted for a mean rise in temperature of between 0.07 degrees and 2.86 degrees C within nests. During the middle third of incubation, when sex is thought to be determined, this rise in temperature ranged between 0.07 degrees and 2.61 degrees C. Metabolic heating was related to both the number of eggs laid and the total number of hatchlings/embryos produced in a clutch. For 32 clutches in which temperature was recorded, we estimate that metabolic heating accounted for a rise of up to 30% in the proportion of females produced within different clutches. Previous studies have dismissed any effect of metabolic heating on the sex ratio of marine turtle hatchlings. Our results imply that metabolic heating needs to be considered when estimating green turtle hatchling sex ratios.

The diving behaviour of green turtles undertaking oceanic migration to and from Ascension Island: dive durations, dive profiles and depth distribution.

Satellite telemetry was used to record the submergence duration of green turtles (Chelonia mydas) as they migrated from Ascension Island to Brazil (N=12 individuals) while time/depth recorders (TDRs) were used to examine the depth distribution and dive profiles of individuals returning to Ascension Island to nest after experimental displacement (N=5 individuals). Satellite telemetry revealed that most submergences were short (<5 min) but that some submergences were longer (>20 min), particularly at night. TDRs revealed that much of the time was spent conducting short (2-4 min), shallow (approximately 0.9-1.5 m) dives, consistent with predictions for optimisation of near-surface travelling, while long (typically 20-30 min), deep (typically 10-20 m) dives had a distinctive profile found in other marine reptiles. These results suggest that green turtles crossing the Atlantic do not behave invariantly, but instead alternate between periods of travelling just beneath the surface and diving deeper. These deep dives may have evolved to reduce silhouetting against the surface, which would make turtles more susceptible to visual predators such as large sharks.

Molecular resolution of marine turtle stock composition in fishery bycatch: a case study in the Mediterranean.

Based on an extensive sampling regime from both nesting populations and bycatch, frequency analyses of mitochondrial (mt) DNA control region haplotypes in the Mediterranean were used to assess the genetic structure and stock composition of the loggerhead sea turtle, Caretta caretta, in different marine fisheries. The analyses show the following. (i) In drifting longline fisheries working in Mediterranean pelagic habitats 53-55% of turtles caught originated from the Mediterranean stock; (ii) In bottom-trawl fisheries all turtle bycatch is derived from this regional stock; (iii) This regional stock contribution to fishery bycatch suggests that the population size of the Mediterranean loggerhead nesting population is significantly larger than previously thought. This is consistent with a recent holistic estimate based on the discovery of a large rookery in Libya. (iv) Present impact of fishery-related mortality on the Mediterranean nesting population is probably incompatible with its long-term conservation. Sea turtle conservation regulations are urgently needed for the Mediterranean fisheries. (v) The significant divergence of mtDNA haplotype frequencies of the Turkish loggerhead colonies define this nesting population as a particularly important management unit. Large immature and adult stages from this management unit seem to be harvested predominantly by Egyptian fisheries. (vi) Combined with other data, our findings suggest that all the nesting populations in the Mediterranean should be considered as management units sharing immature pelagic habitats throughout the Mediterranean (and possibly the eastern Atlantic), with distinct and more localized benthic feeding habitats in the eastern basin used by large immatures and adults. (vii) Between the strict oceanic pelagic and the benthic stages, immature turtles appear to live through an intermediate neritic stage, in which they switch between pelagic and benthic foods.