Assisted migration is plausible for a boreal tree species under climate change: A quantitative and population genetics study of trembling aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx.) in western Canada.

A novel method was tested for improving tree breeding strategies that integrate quantitative and population genetics based on range-wide reciprocal transplant experiments. Five reciprocal common garden tests of Populus tremuloides were investigated including 6450 trees across western Canada focusing on adaptation traits and growth. Both genetic parameters and home-site transplant models were evaluated. We found a genetic trade-off between growth and early spring leaf flush and late fall senescence. Coefficients of phenotypic variation (CVp) of cell lysis (CL), a measure of freezing injury, shrank from 0.28 to 0.10 during acclimation in the fall, and the CVp slope versus the freezing temperature was significantly different from zero (R 2 = 0.33, p = .02). There was more between-population genetic variation in fall phenology than in spring leaf phenology. We suggest that P. tremuloides demonstrated a discrepancy between the ecological optimum and the physiological optimum minimum winter temperature. The sub-optimal growing condition of P. tremuloides is potentially caused by the warmer ecological optimum than the physiological optimum. Assisted migration and breeding of fast growers to reforest cooler plantation sites can improve productivity. Transferring the study populations to less than 4°C of extreme minimum temperature appears safe for reforestation aligning with the historical recolonization direction of the species. This is equivalent to a 5-10° latitudinal northward movement. Fall frost hardiness is an effective criterion for family selection in the range tested in this study.

Genetic parameters of growth and adaptive traits in aspen (Populus tremuloides): Implications for tree breeding in a warming world.

Aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx) is a widespread commercial forest tree of high economic importance in western Canada and has been subject to tree improvement efforts over the past two decades. Such improvement programs rely on accurate estimates of the genetic gain in growth traits and correlated response in adaptive traits that are important for forest health. Here, we estimated genetic parameters in 10 progeny trials containing >30,000 trees with pedigree structures based on a partial factorial mating design that includes 60 half-sibs, 100 full-sib families and 1,400 clonally replicated genotypes. Estimated narrow-sense and broad-sense heritabilities were low for height and diameter (~0.2), but moderate for the dates of budbreak and leaf senescence (~0.4). Furthermore, estimated genetic correlations between growth and phenology were moderate to strong with tall trees being associated with early budbreak (r = -0.3) and late leaf senescence (r = -0.7). Survival was not compromised, but was positively associated with early budbreak or late leaf senescence, indicating that utilizing the growing season was more important for survival and growth than avoiding early fall or late spring frosts. These result suggests that populations are adapted to colder climate conditions and lag behind environmental conditions to which they are optimally adapted due to substantial climate warming observed over the last several decades for the study area.

Post-glacial biogeography of trembling aspen inferred from habitat models and genetic variance in quantitative traits.

Using species distribution models and information on genetic structure and within-population variance observed in a series of common garden trials, we reconstructed a historical biogeography of trembling aspen in North America. We used an ensemble classifier modelling approach (RandomForest) to reconstruct palaeoclimatic habitat for the periods 21,000, 14,000, 11,000 and 6,000 years before present. Genetic structure and diversity in quantitative traits was evaluated in common garden trials with 43 aspen collections ranging from Minnesota to northern British Columbia. Our main goals were to examine potential recolonisation routes for aspen from southwestern, eastern and Beringian glacial refugia. We further examined if any refugium had stable habitat conditions where aspen clones may have survived multiple glaciations. Our palaeoclimatic habitat reconstructions indicate that aspen may have recolonised boreal Canada and Alaska from refugia in the eastern United States, with separate southwestern refugia for the Rocky Mountain regions. This is further supported by a southeast to northwest gradient of decreasing genetic variance in quantitative traits, a likely result of repeated founder effects. Stable habitat where aspen clones may have survived multiple glaciations was predicted in Mexico and the eastern United States, but not in the west where some of the largest aspen clones have been documented.

The potential of aspen clonal forestry in Alberta: breeding regions and estimates of genetic gain from selection.

BACKGROUND: Aspen naturally grows in large, single-species, even-aged stands that regenerate clonally after fire disturbance. This offers an opportunity for an intensive clonal forestry system that closely emulates the natural life history of the species. In this paper, we assess the potential of genetic tree improvement and clonal deployment to enhance the productivity of aspen forests in Alberta. We further investigate geographic patterns of genetic variation in aspen and infer forest management strategies under uncertain future climates. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Genetic variation among 242 clones from Alberta was evaluated in 13 common garden trials after 5-8 growing seasons in the field. Broad-sense heritabilities for height and diameter at breast height (DBH) ranged from 0.36 to 0.64, allowing 5-15% genetic gains in height and 9-34% genetic gains in DBH. Geographic partitioning of genetic variance revealed predominant latitudinal genetic differentiation. We further observed that northward movement of clones almost always resulted in increased growth relative to local planting material, while southward movement had a strong opposite effect. CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE: Aspen forests are an important natural resource in western Canada that is used for pulp and oriented strandboard production, accounting for ~40% of the total forest harvest. Moderate to high broad-sense heritabilities in growth traits suggest good potential for a genetic tree improvement program with aspen. Significant productivity gains appear possible through clonal selection from existing trials. We propose two breeding regions for Alberta, and suggest that well-tested southern clones may be used in the northern breeding region, accounting for a general warming trend observed over the last several decades in Alberta.