Viral co-infection, autoimmunity, and CSF HIV antibody profiles in HIV central nervous system escape.

Antiretroviral therapy (ART) suppresses plasma and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) HIV replication. Neurosymptomatic (NS) CSF escape is a rare exception in which CNS HIV replication occurs in the setting of neurologic impairment. The origins of NS escape are not fully understood. We performed a case-control study of asymptomatic (AS) escape and NS escape subjects with HIV-negative subjects as controls in which we investigated differential immunoreactivity to self-antigens in the CSF of NS escape by employing neuroanatomic CSF immunostaining and massively multiplexed self-antigen serology (PhIP-Seq). Additionally, we utilized pan-viral serology (VirScan) to deeply profile the CSF anti-viral antibody response and metagenomic next-generation sequencing (mNGS) for pathogen detection. We detected Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) DNA more frequently in the CSF of NS escape subjects than in AS escape subjects. Based on immunostaining and PhIP-Seq, there was evidence for increased immunoreactivity against self-antigens in NS escape CSF. Finally, VirScan revealed several immunodominant epitopes that map to the HIV envelope and gag proteins in the CSF of AS and NS escape subjects. Whether these additional inflammatory markers are byproducts of an HIV-driven process or whether they independently contribute to the neuropathogenesis of NS escape will require further study.

Multigenerational laboratory culture of pelagic ctenophores and CRISPR-Cas9 genome editing in the lobate Mnemiopsis leidyi.

Despite long-standing experimental interest in ctenophores due to their unique biology, ecological influence and evolutionary status, previous work has largely been constrained by the periodic seasonal availability of wild-caught animals and difficulty in reliably closing the life cycle. To address this problem, we have developed straightforward protocols that can be easily implemented to establish long-term multigenerational cultures for biological experimentation in the laboratory. In this protocol, we describe the continuous culture of the Atlantic lobate ctenophore Mnemiopsis leidyi. A rapid 3-week egg-to-egg generation time makes Mnemiopsis suitable for a wide range of experimental genetic, cellular, embryological, physiological, developmental, ecological and evolutionary studies. We provide recommendations for general husbandry to close the life cycle of Mnemiopsis in the laboratory, including feeding requirements, light-induced spawning, collection of embryos and rearing of juveniles to adults. These protocols have been successfully applied to maintain long-term multigenerational cultures of several species of pelagic ctenophores, and can be utilized by laboratories lacking easy access to the ocean. We also provide protocols for targeted genome editing via microinjection with CRISPR-Cas9 that can be completed within ~2 weeks, including single-guide RNA synthesis, early embryo microinjection, phenotype assessment and sequence validation of genome edits. These protocols provide a foundation for using Mnemiopsis as a model organism for functional genomic analyses in ctenophores.

Proton-Stabilized Photochemically Reversible E/ Z Isomerization of Spiropyrans.

Spiropyrans undergo Cspiro-O bond breaking to their ring-open protonated E-merocyanine form upon protonation and irradiation via an intermediate protonated Z-merocyanine isomer. We show that the extent of acid-induced ring opening is controlled by matching both the concentration and strength of the acid used and with strong acids full ring opening to the Z-merocyanine isomer occurs spontaneously allowing its characterization by 1H NMR spectroscopy as well as UV/vis spectroscopy, and reversible switching between Z/ E-isomerization by irradiation with UV and visible light. Under sufficiently acidic conditions, both E- and Z-isomers are thermally stable. Judicious choice of acid such that its p Ka lies between that of the E- and Z-merocyanine forms enables thermally stable switching between spiropyran and E-merocyanine forms and hence pH gating between thermally irreversible and reversible photochromic switching.

Early-life risk factors identified for owner-reported feline overweight and obesity at around two years of age.

Obesity is considered the second most common health problem in pet cats in developed countries. This study used prospective data from a longitudinal study of pet cats ('C.L.A.W.S.', www.bristol.ac.uk/vetscience/claws) to identify early-life risk factors for feline overweight/obesity occurring at around two years of age. Data were collected via five owner-completed questionnaires (for cats aged two-six months, six months, 12 months, 18 months and two years respectively) completed between May 2011 and April 2015. Owner-reported body condition scores (BCS) of cats at age two years, assessed using images from the 9-point BCS system (Laflamme, 1997), were categorised into a dichotomous variable: overweight/obese (BCS 6-9) and not overweight (BCS 1-5) and used as the dependent variable. Of the 375 cats with owner-reported BCS, 25.3% were overweight or obese at two years of age. Multivariable logistic regression models were built using stepwise forward-selection. To account for potential hierarchical clustering due to multi-cat households two-level random intercept models were considered but clustering had no impact on the analysis. Models were compared using Wald tests. Six factors were significantly associated with overweight/obesity at two years of age: being overweight or obese at one year of age (OR=10.6, 95%CI 4.4-25.3); owner belief that BCS 7 was the ideal weight (OR=33.2, 95%CI 8.5-129.4), or that BCS represented overweight cats but they would not be concerned if their cat were classified in this category (OR=2.7, 95%CI 1.2-6.2), at questionnaire five completion; vets advising owners that the cat should lose weight, or making no comment on their weight, between one and two years of age (OR=12.1, 95%CI 3.2-44.9 and OR=3.9, 95%CI 1.5-10.3 respectively); owners giving their cat treats when they "felt happy" with them at 18 months of age (OR=2.7, 95%CI 1.0 - 7.3); feeding ≥250g wet food daily between two and six months of age (OR=2.7, 95%CI 1.2-5.9), and feeding dry food as the only or major part (>50%) of the diet at two years of age (OR=2.1, 95%CI 1.0-4.2). These findings have the potential to reduce the current high prevalence of a widespread problem by informing preventive advice, and as such improving the health and welfare of pet cats.

Chirality controlled responsive self-assembled nanotubes in water.

The concept of using chirality to dictate dimensions and to store chiral information in self-assembled nanotubes in a fully controlled manner is presented. We report a photoresponsive amphiphile that co-assembles with its chiral counterpart to form nanotubes and demonstrate how chirality can be used to effect the formation of either micrometer long, achiral nanotubes or shorter (∼300 nm) chiral nanotubes that are bundled. The nature of these assemblies is studied using a variety of spectroscopic and microscopic techniques and it is shown that the tubes can be disassembled with light, thereby allowing the chiral information to be erased.

A Bayesian micro-simulation to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of interventions for mastitis control during the dry period in UK dairy herds.

Importance of the dry period with respect to mastitis control is now well established although the precise interventions that reduce the risk of acquiring intramammary infections during this time are not clearly understood. There are very few intervention studies that have measured the clinical efficacy of specific mastitis interventions within a cost-effectiveness framework so there remains a large degree of uncertainty about the impact of a specific intervention and its costeffectiveness. The aim of this study was to use a Bayesian framework to investigate the cost-effectiveness of mastitis controls during the dry period. Data were assimilated from 77 UK dairy farms that participated in a British national mastitis control programme during 2009-2012 in which the majority of intramammary infections were acquired during the dry period. The data consisted of clinical mastitis (CM) and somatic cell count (SCC) records, herd management practices and details of interventions that were implemented by the farmer as part of the control plan. The outcomes used to measure the effectiveness of the interventions were i) changes in the incidence rate of clinical mastitis during the first 30days after calving and ii) the rate at which cows gained new infections during the dry period (measured by SCC changes across the dry period from <200,000cells/ml to >200,000cells/ml). A Bayesian one-step microsimulation model was constructed such that posterior predictions from the model incorporated uncertainty in all parameters. The incremental net benefit was calculated across 10,000 Markov chain Monte Carlo iterations, to estimate the cost-benefit (and associated uncertainty) of each mastitis intervention. Interventions identified as being cost-effective in most circumstances included selecting dry-cow therapy at the cow level, dry-cow rations formulated by a qualified nutritionist, use of individual calving pens, first milking cows within 24h of calving and spreading bedding evenly in dry-cow yards. The results of this study highlighted the efficacy of specific mastitis interventions in UK conditions which, when incorporated into a costeffectiveness framework, can be used to optimize decision making in mastitis control. This intervention study provides an example of how an intuitive and clinically useful Bayesian approach can be used to form the basis of an on-farm decision support tool.

Sequential sampling: a novel method in farm animal welfare assessment.

Lameness in dairy cows is an important welfare issue. As part of a welfare assessment, herd level lameness prevalence can be estimated from scoring a sample of animals, where higher levels of accuracy are associated with larger sample sizes. As the financial cost is related to the number of cows sampled, smaller samples are preferred. Sequential sampling schemes have been used for informing decision making in clinical trials. Sequential sampling involves taking samples in stages, where sampling can stop early depending on the estimated lameness prevalence. When welfare assessment is used for a pass/fail decision, a similar approach could be applied to reduce the overall sample size. The sampling schemes proposed here apply the principles of sequential sampling within a diagnostic testing framework. This study develops three sequential sampling schemes of increasing complexity to classify 80 fully assessed UK dairy farms, each with known lameness prevalence. Using the Welfare Quality herd-size-based sampling scheme, the first 'basic' scheme involves two sampling events. At the first sampling event half the Welfare Quality sample size is drawn, and then depending on the outcome, sampling either stops or is continued and the same number of animals is sampled again. In the second 'cautious' scheme, an adaptation is made to ensure that correctly classifying a farm as 'bad' is done with greater certainty. The third scheme is the only scheme to go beyond lameness as a binary measure and investigates the potential for increasing accuracy by incorporating the number of severely lame cows into the decision. The three schemes are evaluated with respect to accuracy and average sample size by running 100 000 simulations for each scheme, and a comparison is made with the fixed size Welfare Quality herd-size-based sampling scheme. All three schemes performed almost as well as the fixed size scheme but with much smaller average sample sizes. For the third scheme, an overall association between lameness prevalence and the proportion of lame cows that were severely lame on a farm was found. However, as this association was found to not be consistent across all farms, the sampling scheme did not prove to be as useful as expected. The preferred scheme was therefore the 'cautious' scheme for which a sampling protocol has also been developed.

Assessing changes in the UK pet cat and dog populations: numbers and household ownership.

The main aim of this study was to replicate methodology used to estimate the size of the UK pet cat and dog populations in 2006 and the proportion of households owning cats/dogs in 2007, to produce updated data to compare trends in ownership and population sizes. A cross-sectional study design was used to collect telephone interview data from 3155 households in the UK. 2011 UK human census data were used to predict the size of the cat and dog populations owned by households in the UK in 2011. Of the households, 23 per cent (714/3155) owned one or more cats and 30 per cent (940/3155) owned one or more dogs. There was some overlap in pet ownership with 7 per cent (210/3155) of households owning both one or more cats and one or more dogs. There was a small but significant decrease in the proportion of households that owned one or more cats in 2011 compared with 2007, with no change in the proportion owning dogs. However, overall, the total number of cats and dogs that were estimated to be owned by UK households did not change significantly between 2006 and 2011. The estimated size (and 95% CIs) of the pet cat and dog populations in the UK in 2011 was 10,114,764 cats (9,138,603-11,090,924) and 11,599,824 dogs (10,708,070-12,491,578).

Reversible photochromic switching in a Ru(II) polypyridyl complex.

Fully reversible photoswitching of the coordination mode of the ligand MeN4Py (1,1-di(pyridin-2-yl)-N,N'-bis(pyridin-2-yl-methyl)-ethan-1-amine) in its ruthenium(II) complex with visible light is reported. Irradiation with visible light results in dissociation of a pyridyl moiety, which is reversed by irradiation at 355 nm.

Navigating the iceberg: reducing the number of parameters within the Welfare Quality(®) assessment protocol for dairy cows.

The Welfare Quality(®) protocols provide a multidimensional assessment of welfare, which is lengthy, and hence limited in terms of practicality. The aim of this study was to investigate potential 'iceberg indicators' which could reliably predict the overall classification as a means of reducing the length of time for an assessment and so increase the feasibility of the Welfare Quality(®) protocol as a multidimensional assessment of welfare. Full Welfare Quality(®) assessments were carried out on 92 dairy farms in England and Wales. The farms were all classified as Acceptable or Enhanced. Logistic regression models with cross validation were used to compare model fit for the overall classification on farms. 'Absence of prolonged thirst', on its own, was found to correctly classify farms 88% of the time. More generally, the inclusion of more measures in the models was not associated with greater predictive ability for the overall classification. Absence of prolonged thirst could thus, in theory, be considered to be an iceberg indicator for the Welfare Quality(®) protocol, and could reduce the length of time for a farm assessment to 15 min. Previous work has shown that the parameters within the Welfare Quality(®) protocol are important and relevant for welfare assessment. However, it is argued that the credibility of the published aggregation system is compromised by the finding that one resource measure (Absence of prolonged thirst) is a major driver for the overall classification. It is therefore suggested that the prominence of Absence of prolonged thirst in this role may be better understood as an unintended consequence of the published measure aggregation system rather than as reflecting a realistic iceberg indicator.

The anterior tooth development of cattle presented for slaughter: an analysis of age, sex and breed.

In a cross-sectional study, data from records of cattle slaughtered over a 1-year period at a large abattoir in South West England were analysed using an ordered category response model to investigate the inter-relationships between age, sex and breed on development of the permanent anterior (PA) teeth. Using the model, transition points at which there was a 50% probability of membership of each category of paired PA teeth were identified. Data from ∼60,000 animals were initially analysed for age and sex effect. The age transition was found to be ∼23 months moving from zero to two teeth; 30 months for two to four teeth; 37 months for four to six teeth and 42 months for six to eight teeth. Males were found to develop, on average, ∼22 days earlier than females across all stages. A reduced data set of ∼23,000 animals registered as pure-bred only was used to compare breed and type interactions and to investigate sex effects within the sub-categories. Breeds were grouped into dairy and beef-type and beef breeds split into native and continental. It was found that dairy-types moved through the transition points earlier than beef-types across all stages (interval varying between ∼8 and 12 weeks) and that collectively, native beef breeds moved through the transition points by up to 3 weeks earlier than the continental beef breeds. Interestingly, in contrast to beef animals, dairy females matured before dairy males. However, the magnitude of the difference between dairy females and males diminished at the later stages of development. Differences were found between breeds. Across the first three stages, Ayrshires and Guernseys developed between 3 and 6 weeks later than Friesian/Holsteins and Simmental, Limousin and Blonde Aquitaine 6 and 8 weeks later than Aberdeen Angus. Herefords, Charolais and South Devon developed later but by a smaller interval and Red Devon and Galloway showed the largest individual effect with transition delayed by 8 to 12 weeks.

Sample size estimation to substantiate freedom from disease for clustered binary data with a specific risk profile.

Disease cases are often clustered within herds or generally groups that share common characteristics. Sample size formulae must adjust for the within-cluster correlation of the primary sampling units. Traditionally, the intra-cluster correlation coefficient (ICC), which is an average measure of the data heterogeneity, has been used to modify formulae for individual sample size estimation. However, subgroups of animals sharing common characteristics, may exhibit excessively less or more heterogeneity. Hence, sample size estimates based on the ICC may not achieve the desired precision and power when applied to these groups. We propose the use of the variance partition coefficient (VPC), which measures the clustering of infection/disease for individuals with a common risk profile. Sample size estimates are obtained separately for those groups that exhibit markedly different heterogeneity, thus, optimizing resource allocation. A VPC-based predictive simulation method for sample size estimation to substantiate freedom from disease is presented. To illustrate the benefits of the proposed approach we give two examples with the analysis of data from a risk factor study on Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis infection, in Danish dairy cattle and a study on critical control points for Salmonella cross-contamination of pork, in Greek slaughterhouses.

Risk factors for a high somatic cell count at the first milk recording in a large sample of UK dairy herds.

The dry period is important for the cure of existing intramammary infection (IMI) and the acquisition of new IMI. Somatic cell count (SCC) at both the last milk recording before drying off and at the first milk recording following calving can be used on farm to describe the dynamics of IMI during the dry period. The aims were to quantify the association between the main risk factors collected from milk recording data and the occurrence of a high SCC in early lactation as well as to partition the observed variation into the prevalence of high SCC in within-herd and between-herd variation. Milk recording data collected between 2004 and 2006 from 2,000 herds in England and Wales were used. Cows with an SCC ≥200,000 cells/mL were classified as high, and other cows as low. The median prevalences of the high classification were 42 and 21% at the last milk recording before drying off and the first milk recording following calving, respectively. Cows classified high or producing more milk before drying off as well as cows of greater parity or recorded in early lactation were more likely classified high at the first recording following calving. Cows from herds in which the prevalences of the high classification or the probability of remaining or becoming high over the dry period were elevated during the previous year were more likely classified as high at the first recording following calving. Half of the variability in the proportion of cows with a high SCC after calving originated at the herd level. The other half was unexplained within herd, but by between-year variability. Most cow-level predictors were important in explaining individual cow performance, but accounted for little of the overall between-herd variability. Of the predictors identified as important at the cow level, only milk yield at drying off was important in explaining the between-herd variability.

A semi-parametric model for lactation curves: development and application.

We propose a semi-parametric model for lactation curves that, along with stage of lactation, accounts for day of the year at milk recording and stage of gestation. Lactation is described as having 3 different phases defined by 2 change points of which the second is a function of gestation stage. Season of milk recording is modelled using cosine and sine functions. As an application, the model is used to estimate the association between intramammary infections (IMI) dynamics as measured by somatic cell count (SCC) over the dry period and the shape of the lactation curve. Milk recording data collected in 2128 herds from England and Wales between 2004 and 2007 were used in the analysis. From a random sample of 1000 of these herds, smoothed milk production was used to test the behaviour of the model and estimate model parameters. The first change point was set at 60 days in milk. The second change point was set at 100 days of gestation or 200 days in milk when the latter was not available. Using data from the 1128 remaining herds, multilevel models were then used to model individual test-day milk production within lactations within herds. Average milk production at 60 days in milk for cows of parities 1, 2, 3 and greater than 3 were 26.9 kg, 31.6 kg, 34.4 kg and 34.7 kg respectively and, after this stage, decreases in milk production per 100 days milk of lactation were 3.1 kg, 5.1 kg, 6.3 kg and 6.7 kg respectively. Compared to cows that had an SCC below 200,000 cells/mL on both the last milk recording in a lactation and the first milk recording in the following lactation, cows that had an SCC greater than 200,000 cells/mL on their first milk recording after calving had an estimated loss of milk production of between 216 and 518 kg depending on parity. These estimates demonstrate the impact of the dynamics of SCC during the dry period on milk production during the following lactation.

Mechanical comparison of median sternotomy closure in dogs using polydioxanone and wire sutures.

OBJECTIVES: To compare the mechanical properties of two different materials for canine median sternotomy closure. STUDY DESIGN: In vitro biomechanical study. SAMPLE POPULATION: Twelve canine cadaveric entire sternum and portion of associated ribs and musculature. METHODS: Median sternotomy leaving the manubrium intact was closed using polydioxanone and stainless steel wire in a figure of eight pattern. Constructs were loaded in a servohydraulic material testing system and displacement was compared at loads of 125, 150, 200, 250, 300, 350 and 400 N, and at failure. RESULTS: Displacement at loads up to 400 N and failure did not show any statistical difference between the polydioxanone and the stainless steel wire. However, the loading forces to create failure of the construct were superior for the stainless steel. Polydioxanone and stainless steel wire had the same response to distractive forces for loads applied up to 400 N. CLINICAL SIGNIFICANCE: This study cannot recommend the use of polydioxanone over wires but suggests that polydioxanone can potentially be an alternative for primary median sternotomy closure in selected patients.

The impact of anaesthetic trainees on elective caesarean section procedural times: a prospective observational study.

Operating room efficiency is an important concern in hospitals today both in the public and private sectors. Currently, a paucity of literature exists to evaluate the impact of anaesthetic training on operating room efficiency in the Australian health system. At Monash Medical Centre, Clayton, private consultant operating sessions and public teaching operating sessions use the same operating theatres, nursing and technical staff. Consultant anaesthetists and obstetricians perform all tasks during private sessions, whereas anaesthetic and obstetric trainees perform many tasks during public sessions. In this prospective observational study, total case time, anaesthesia controlled time and the surgical time were measured for elective caesarean section under spinal anaesthesia in 59 patients (private consultant n = 29, public teaching n = 30). Increases in total case time (24 minutes, P < 0.001), anaesthesia controlled time (5.2 minutes, P < 0.015) and surgical time (19.25 minutes, P < 0.001) were observed in the public teaching group compared with the private consultant group. The participation of anesthetic trainees in caesarean sections results in a modest increase in anaesthetic controlled time of approximately five minutes per case or 16 minutes in an operative session with three cases scheduled. Elimination of anaesthetic 'training' time does not allow scheduling of an extra elective caesarean section. Reduced operating theatre throughput is unlikely to be a consequence of training specialist anaesthetists in this clinical setting.

Reinvestigating 2,5-di(pyridin-2-yl)pyrazine ruthenium complexes: selective deuteration and Raman spectroscopy as tools to probe ground and excited-state electronic structure in homo- and heterobimetallic complexes.

The mono- (1) and dinuclear (2) ruthenium(II) bis(2,2'-bipyridine) complexes of 2,5-di(pyridin-2-yl)pyrazine (2,5-dpp), for which the UV/Vis absorption and emission as well as electrochemical properties have been described earlier, are reinvestigated here by resonance, surface enhanced and transient resonance Raman spectroscopy together with selective deuteration to determine the location of the lowest lying excited metal to ligand charge transfer ((3)MLCT) states. The ground state absorption spectrum of both the mono- and dinuclear complexes are characterised by resonance Raman spectroscopy. The effect of deuteration on emission lifetimes together with the absence of characteristic bipy anion radical modes in the transient Raman spectra for both the mono- and dinuclear complexes bridged by the 2,5-dpp ligand confirms that the excited state is 2,5-dpp based; however DFT calculations and the effect of deuteration on emission lifetimes indicate that the bipy based MLCT states contribute to excited state deactivation. Resonance Raman and surface enhanced Raman spectroscopic (SERS) data for 1 and 2 are compared with that of the heterobimetallic complexes [Ru(bipy)(2)(2,5-dpp)PdCl(2)](2+)3 and [Ru(bipy)(2)(2,5-dpp)PtCl(2)](2+)4. The SERS data for 1 indicates that a heterobimetallic Ru-Au complex forms in situ upon addition of 1 to a gold colloid.

Use of individual cow milk recording data at the start of lactation to predict the calving to conception interval.

Milk recording data collected in 2,128 dairy herds in England and Wales between 2004 and 2006 were used to predict the calving to conception intervals. The average cumulative milk production was 8,200 kg. Conception (or not) within 5 intervals measured in days (20 to 60 d, 61 to 81 d, 82 to 102 d, 103 to 123 d, 124 to 144 d) was modeled as a function of milk yields and milk constituents at the start of lactation using multilevel discrete-time survival models. Milk yield, weight and percentage of fat, protein, and lactose, and somatic cell counts on the first 2 test-days of lactation were corrected for either stage of lactation alone or stage of lactation and time of year. Five hundred and 1,628 herds, respectively, were used for parameter estimation and cross-validation. Covariates were retained in the final model if their coefficient was at least twice its standard error and their inclusion resulted in a decrease in the deviance. Overall, 73% of cows recalved. The percentage of cows that had conceived by d 20, 61, 82, 103, 124, and 145 were 0.5, 7.3, 17.9, 29.3, 38.7, and 46, respectively. The probability of conception before 145 d in milk increased with lower milk production on the second test-day, higher percentage of protein on the second test-day, and higher percentage of lactose on the first test-day. Positive associations were of a limited magnitude but nonetheless significant with the percentage of protein on the first test-day, the percentage of butterfat on the first test-day, and somatic cell count on both test-days. The model predicted the probability of conception in the cross validation data set very well. Despite the common use of fat to protein ratio as a measure of energy balance, this parameter exhibited wide variation with stage of lactation and time of the year and had a much-reduced ability to predict an early conception compared with other combinations of milk quantity and constituents.

Somatic cell count dynamics in a large sample of dairy herds in England and Wales.

An essential reason to record and evaluate patterns of cow somatic cell count (SCC) within a dairy herd is to help in making clinical decisions on the control of mastitis. An understanding of when new infections occur and how patterns of infection influence herd bulk milk somatic cell count (BMSCC) are critical when implementing mastitis control because it enables advisors to target specific problem areas. The objective of this research was to evaluate individual cow SCC patterns in terms of their contribution to BMSCC. Data collected in 2128 herds from England and Wales between 2004 and 2006 were used. Cows were categorised as having a low, medium or high SCC based on thresholds of 100,000 cells/mL and 200,000 cells/mL. Movements between these categories in consecutive months, before or after 30 days in milk, in primiparous (heifers) and multiparous cows (cows) were used to predict BMSCC. From these categories, new variables representing different SCC patterns, were calculated and included in different models: the medium SCC category was grouped with either the low or the high category, and the denominator was either the total number of cows recorded during the herd-year or the number of cows eligible for a particular transition. Model fitting and predictions were carried out in a Bayesian framework. A random sample of 1500 herds was used for parameter estimation and the remaining 628 herds for model validation. Heifers were more likely to remain at, or to move to, a low SCC than cows. A transition threshold of 100,000 cells/mL for heifers resulted in a poorer model fit and predictive ability than a threshold of 200,000 cells/mL. A model using a single threshold of 200,000 cells/mL regardless of parity was the best to predict BMSCC. The sensitivity and specificity of this final model to correctly predict a BMSCC > 200, 000 cells/mL in the validation dataset were 86.5% and 86.8%, respectively. Important SCC patterns that influenced BMSCC were cows and heifers staying above 200,000 cells/mL for two consecutive recordings during lactation, cows moving from below to above 200,000 cells/mL across the dry period, cows remaining above 200,000 cells/mL across the dry period and heifers calving with an SCC above 200,000 cells/mL in the first month of lactation. The variation between herds in SCC transitions was evaluated and it was concluded that the performance of the top 10% of herds would be useful to provide benchmarks to evaluate dairy herd mastitis.