Enhancing the prediction for shunt-dependent hydrocephalus after aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage using a machine learning approach.

Early and reliable prediction of shunt-dependent hydrocephalus (SDHC) after aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH) may decrease the duration of in-hospital stay and reduce the risk of catheter-associated meningitis. Machine learning (ML) may improve predictions of SDHC in comparison to traditional non-ML methods. ML models were trained for CHESS and SDASH and two combined individual feature sets with clinical, radiographic, and laboratory variables. Seven different algorithms were used including three types of generalized linear models (GLM) as well as a tree boosting (CatBoost) algorithm, a Naive Bayes (NB) classifier, and a multilayer perceptron (MLP) artificial neural net. The discrimination of the area under the curve (AUC) was classified (0.7 ≤ AUC < 0.8, acceptable; 0.8 ≤ AUC < 0.9, excellent; AUC ≥ 0.9, outstanding). Of the 292 patients included with aSAH, 28.8% (n = 84) developed SDHC. Non-ML-based prediction of SDHC produced an acceptable performance with AUC values of 0.77 (CHESS) and 0.78 (SDASH). Using combined feature sets with more complex variables included than those incorporated in the scores, the ML models NB and MLP reached excellent performances, with an AUC of 0.80, respectively. After adding the amount of CSF drained within the first 14 days as a late feature to ML-based prediction, excellent performances were reached in the MLP (AUC 0.81), NB (AUC 0.80), and tree boosting model (AUC 0.81). ML models may enable clinicians to reliably predict the risk of SDHC after aSAH based exclusively on admission data. Future ML models may help optimize the management of SDHC in aSAH by avoiding delays in clinical decision-making.

Outcome prediction in aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage: a comparison of machine learning methods and established clinico-radiological scores.

Reliable prediction of outcomes of aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH) based on factors available at patient admission may support responsible allocation of resources as well as treatment decisions. Radiographic and clinical scoring systems may help clinicians estimate disease severity, but their predictive value is limited, especially in devising treatment strategies. In this study, we aimed to examine whether a machine learning (ML) approach using variables available on admission may improve outcome prediction in aSAH compared to established scoring systems. Combined clinical and radiographic features as well as standard scores (Hunt & Hess, WFNS, BNI, Fisher, and VASOGRADE) available on patient admission were analyzed using a consecutive single-center database of patients that presented with aSAH (n = 388). Different ML models (seven algorithms including three types of traditional generalized linear models, as well as a tree bosting algorithm, a support vector machine classifier (SVMC), a Naive Bayes (NB) classifier, and a multilayer perceptron (MLP) artificial neural net) were trained for single features, scores, and combined features with a random split into training and test sets (4:1 ratio), ten-fold cross-validation, and 50 shuffles. For combined features, feature importance was calculated. There was no difference in performance between traditional and other ML applications using traditional clinico-radiographic features. Also, no relevant difference was identified between a combined set of clinico-radiological features available on admission (highest AUC 0.78, tree boosting) and the best performing clinical score GCS (highest AUC 0.76, tree boosting). GCS and age were the most important variables for the feature combination. In this cohort of patients with aSAH, the performance of functional outcome prediction by machine learning techniques was comparable to traditional methods and established clinical scores. Future work is necessary to examine input variables other than traditional clinico-radiographic features and to evaluate whether a higher performance for outcome prediction in aSAH can be achieved.