Development and external validation of the eFalls tool: a multivariable prediction model for the risk of ED attendance or hospitalisation with a fall or fracture in older adults.

BACKGROUND: Falls are common in older adults and can devastate personal independence through injury such as fracture and fear of future falls. Methods to identify people for falls prevention interventions are currently limited, with high risks of bias in published prediction models. We have developed and externally validated the eFalls prediction model using routinely collected primary care electronic health records (EHR) to predict risk of emergency department attendance/hospitalisation with fall or fracture within 1 year. METHODS: Data comprised two independent, retrospective cohorts of adults aged ≥65 years: the population of Wales, from the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage Databank (model development); the population of Bradford and Airedale, England, from Connected Bradford (external validation). Predictors included electronic frailty index components, supplemented with variables informed by literature reviews and clinical expertise. Fall/fracture risk was modelled using multivariable logistic regression with a Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator penalty. Predictive performance was assessed through calibration, discrimination and clinical utility. Apparent, internal-external cross-validation and external validation performance were assessed across general practices and in clinically relevant subgroups. RESULTS: The model's discrimination performance (c-statistic) was 0.72 (95% confidence interval, CI: 0.68 to 0.76) on internal-external cross-validation and 0.82 (95% CI: 0.80 to 0.83) on external validation. Calibration was variable across practices, with some over-prediction in the validation population (calibration-in-the-large, -0.87; 95% CI: -0.96 to -0.78). Clinical utility on external validation was improved after recalibration. CONCLUSION: The eFalls prediction model shows good performance and could support proactive stratification for falls prevention services if appropriately embedded into primary care EHR systems.

Demographic, health, physical activity, and workplace factors are associated with lower healthy working life expectancy and life expectancy at age 50.

Although retirement ages are rising in the United Kingdom and other countries, the average number of years people in England can expect to spend both healthy and work from age 50 (Healthy Working Life Expectancy; HWLE) is less than the number of years to the State Pension age. This study aimed to estimate HWLE with the presence and absence of selected health, socio-demographic, physical activity, and workplace factors relevant to stakeholders focusing on improving work participation. Data from 11,540 adults in the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing were analysed using a continuous time 3-state multi-state model. Age-adjusted hazard rate ratios (aHRR) were estimated for transitions between health and work states associated with individual and combinations of health, socio-demographic, and workplace factors. HWLE from age 50 was 3.3 years fewer on average for people with pain interference (6.54 years with 95% confidence interval [6.07, 7.01]) compared to those without (9.79 [9.50, 10.08]). Osteoarthritis and mental health problems were associated with 2.2 and 2.9 fewer healthy working years respectively (HWLE for people without osteoarthritis: 9.50 years [9.22, 9.79]; HWLE with osteoarthritis: 7.29 years [6.20, 8.39]; HWLE without mental health problems: 9.76 years [9.48, 10.05]; HWLE with mental health problems: 6.87 years [1.58, 12.15]). Obesity and physical inactivity were associated with 0.9 and 2.0 fewer healthy working years respectively (HWLE without obesity: 9.31 years [9.01, 9.62]; HWLE with obesity: 8.44 years [8.02, 8.86]; HWLE without physical inactivity: 9.62 years [9.32, 9.91]; HWLE with physical inactivity: 7.67 years [7.23, 8.12]). Workers without autonomy at work or with inadequate support at work were expected to lose 1.8 and 1.7 years respectively in work with good health from age 50 (HWLE for workers with autonomy: 9.50 years [9.20, 9.79]; HWLE for workers lacking autonomy: 7.67 years [7.22, 8.12]; HWLE for workers with support: 9.52 years [9.22, 9.82]; HWLE for workers with inadequate support: 7.86 years [7.22, 8.12]). This study identified demographic, health, physical activity, and workplace factors associated with lower HWLE and life expectancy at age 50. Identifying the extent of the impact on healthy working life highlights these factors as targets and the potential to mitigate against premature work exit is encouraging to policy-makers seeking to extend working life as well as people with musculoskeletal and mental health conditions and their employers. The HWLE gaps suggest that interventions are needed to promote the health, wellbeing and work outcomes of subpopulations with long-term health conditions.

Symptom patterns and life with post-acute COVID-19 in children aged 8-17 years: a mixed-methods study protocol.

BACKGROUND: While there is a substantial body of knowledge about acute COVID-19, less is known about long-COVID, where symptoms continue beyond 4 weeks. AIM: To describe longer-term effects of COVID-19 infection in children and young people (CYP) and identify their needs in relation to long-COVID. DESIGN & SETTING: This study comprises an observational prospective cohort study and a linked qualitative study, identifying participants aged 8-17 years in the West Midlands of England. METHOD: CYP will be invited to complete online questionnaires to monitor incidences and symptoms of COVID-19 over a 12-month period. CYP who have experienced long-term effects of COVID will be invited to interview, and those currently experiencing symptoms will be asked to document their experiences in a diary. Professionals who work with CYP will be invited to explore the impact of long-COVID on the wider experiences of CYP, in a focus group. Descriptive statistics will be used to describe the incidence and rates of resolution of symptoms, and comparisons will be made between exposed and non-exposed groups. Logistic regression models will be used to estimate associations between candidate predictors and the development of long-COVID, and linear regression will be used to estimate associations between candidate predictors. Qualitative data will be analysed thematically using the constant comparison method. CONCLUSION: This study will describe features and symptoms of long-COVID and explore the impact of long-COVID within the lives of CYP and their families, to provide better understanding of long-COVID and inform clinical practice.

Diabetes as a risk factor for the onset of frozen shoulder: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVE: Summarise longitudinal observational studies to determine whether diabetes (types 1 and 2) is a risk factor for frozen shoulder. DESIGN: Systematic review and meta-analysis. DATA SOURCES: MEDLINE, Embase, AMED, PsycINFO, Web of Science Core Collection, CINAHL, Epistemonikos, Trip, PEDro, OpenGrey and The Grey Literature Report were searched on January 2019 and updated in June 2021. Reference screening and emailing professional contacts were also used. ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA: Longitudinal observational studies that estimated the association between diabetes and developing frozen shoulder. DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS: Data extraction was completed by one reviewer and independently checked by another using a predefined extraction sheet. Risk of bias was judged using the Quality In Prognosis Studies tool. For studies providing sufficient data, random-effects meta-analysis was used to derive summary estimates of the association between diabetes and the onset of frozen shoulder. RESULTS: A meta-analysis of six case-control studies including 5388 people estimated the odds of developing frozen shoulder for people with diabetes to be 3.69 (95% CI 2.99 to 4.56) times the odds for people without diabetes. Two cohort studies were identified, both suggesting diabetes was associated with frozen shoulder, with HRs of 1.32 (95% CI 1.22 to 1.42) and 1.67 (95% CI 1.46 to 1.91). Risk of bias was judged as high in seven studies and moderate in one study. CONCLUSION: People with diabetes are more likely to develop frozen shoulder. Risk of unmeasured confounding was the main limitation of this systematic review. High-quality studies are needed to confirm the strength of, and understand reasons for, the association. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42019122963.

Identifying Long-Term Trajectories of Foot Pain Severity and Potential Prognostic Factors: A Population-Based Cohort Study.

OBJECTIVES: To identify distinct foot pain trajectories over 7 years and examine their associations with potential prognostic factors. METHODS: Adults ages ≥50 years and registered with 4 general practices in North Staffordshire, UK were mailed a baseline health survey. Those reporting current or recent foot pain were invited to attend a research assessment clinic. Follow-up was by repeated postal surveys at 18, 36, 54, and 84 months. Distinct trajectories of foot pain were explored using latent class growth analysis (LCGA). Subsequently, identified trajectories were combined into most and least progressive groups, and covariate-adjusted associations with a range of prognostic factors were examined. RESULTS: Of 560 adults with foot pain attending baseline research clinics, 425 (76%) provided data at baseline and 2 or more follow-up time points. LCGA for foot pain severity (0-10 numerical rating scale) identified a 4-trajectory model: "mild, improving" (37%); "moderate, improving" (33%); "moderate-severe, persistent" (24%); and "severe, persistent" (6%). Compared with individuals in more favorable (improving) pain trajectories, those in less favorable (persistent) pain trajectories were more likely to be obese, have routine/manual and intermediate occupations, have poorer physical and mental health, have catastrophizing beliefs, have greater foot-specific functional limitation, and have self-assessed hallux valgus at baseline. CONCLUSIONS: Four distinct trajectories of foot pain were identified over a 7-year period, with one-third of individuals classified as having pain that is persistently moderate-severe and severe in intensity. The effect of intervening to target modifiable prognostic factors such as obesity and hallux valgus on long-term outcomes in people with foot pain requires investigation.

The effectiveness of corticosteroid injection versus night splints for carpal tunnel syndrome: 24-month follow-up of a randomized trial.

OBJECTIVES: This follow-up study of the INSTinCTS (INjection vs SplinTing in Carpal Tunnel Syndrome) trial compared the effects of corticosteroid injection (CSI) and night splinting (NS) for the initial management of mild-to-moderate CTS on symptoms, resource use and carpal tunnel surgery, over 24 months. METHODS: Adults with mild-to-moderate CTS were randomized 1:1 to a local corticosteroid injection or a night splint worn for 6 weeks. Outcomes at 12 and 24 months included the Boston Carpal Tunnel Questionnaire (BCTQ), hand/wrist pain intensity numeric rating scale (NRS), the number of patients referred for and undergoing CTS surgery, and healthcare utilization. A cost-utility analysis was conducted. RESULTS: One hundred and sixteen participants received a CSI and 118 a NS. The response rate at 24 months was 73% in the CSI arm and 71% in the NS arm. By 24 months, a greater proportion of the CSI group had been referred for (28% vs 20%) and undergone (22% vs 16%) CTS surgery compared with the NS group. There were no statistically significant between-group differences in BCTQ score or pain NRS at 12 or 24 months. CSI was more costly [mean difference £68.59 (95% CI: -120.84, 291.24)] with fewer quality-adjusted life-years than NS over 24 months [mean difference -0.022 (95% CI: -0.093, 0.045)]. CONCLUSION: Over 24 months, surgical intervention rates were low in both groups, but less frequent in the NS group. While there were no differences in the clinical effectiveness of CSI and NS, initial treatment with CSI may not be cost-effective in the long-term compared with NS.

Factors associated with change in health-related quality of life in people with gout: a 3-year prospective cohort study in primary care.

OBJECTIVE: To describe factors associated with change in health-related quality of life (HRQOL) in people living with gout in primary care. METHODS: In a UK prospective cohort study, adults with a diagnosis of gout registered with 20 general practices completed the Gout Impact Scale (GIS; scale 0-100), 36-item Short Form Physical Function subscale (PF-10; 0-100) and HAQ Disability Index (HAQ-DI; 0-3) via postal questionnaires at baseline and 6, 12, 24 and 36 months. Linear mixed modelling was used to investigate factors associated with changes in HRQOL over 3 years. RESULTS: A total of 1184 participants responded at baseline (adjusted response 65.6%); 990 (83.6%) were male, with a mean age of 65.6 years (s.d. 12.5). A total of 818, 721, 696 and 605 responded at 6, 12, 24 and 36 months, respectively. Factors associated with worse disease-specific and generic HRQOL over 3 years were flare frequency (five or more flares; GIS subscales, PF-10), oligo/polyarticular flares (GIS subscales, PF-10, HAQ-DI), worse pain (GIS subscales, PF-10, HAQ-DI), body pain (GIS subscales, PF-10, HAQ-DI) and more severe depression (GIS subscales, PF-10, HAQ-DI) (P ≤ 0.05). More severe anxiety was associated with worse disease-specific HRQOL only (GIS subscales). Older age (PF-10), being female (PF-10, HAQ-DI) and BMI (HAQ-DI) were associated with worse generic HRQOL (P ≤ 0.05). CONCLUSION: Gout-specific, comorbid and sociodemographic factors were associated with change in HRQOL over a 3-year period, highlighting people at risk of worse outcomes who could be targeted for interventions.

Healthy working life expectancy at age 50 for people with and without osteoarthritis in local and national English populations.

Retirement ages are rising in many countries to offset the challenges of population ageing, but osteoarthritis is an age-associated disease that is becoming more prevalent and may limit capacity to work until older ages. We aimed to assess the impact of osteoarthritis on healthy working life expectancy (HWLE) by comparing HWLE for people with and without osteoarthritis from ages 50 and 65 nationally and in a local area in England. Mortality-linked data for adults aged ≥ 50 years were used from six waves (2002-13) of the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing and from three time points of the North Staffordshire Osteoarthritis Project. HWLE was defined as the average number of years expected to be spent healthy (no limiting long-standing illness) and in paid work (employment or self-employment), and was estimated for people with and without osteoarthritis and by sex and occupation type using interpolated Markov chain multi-state modelling. HWLE from age 50 years was a third lower for people with osteoarthritis compared to people without osteoarthritis both nationally (5.68 95% CI [5.29, 6.07] years compared to 10.00 [9.74, 10.26]) and in North Staffordshire (4.31 [3.68, 4.94] years compared to 6.90 [6.57, 7.24]). HWLE from age 65 years for self-employed people with osteoarthritis exceeded HWLE for people without osteoarthritis in manual or non-manual occupations. Osteoarthritis was associated with a significantly shorter HWLE. People with osteoarthritis are likely to have significantly impaired working ability and capacity to work until older ages, especially in regions with poorer health and work outcomes.

Projections of healthy working life expectancy in England to the year 2035.

UK state pension age is rising in response to life expectancy gains but population health and job opportunities may not be sufficient to achieve extended working lives1-3. This study aimed to estimate future trends in healthy working life expectancy (HWLE) from age 50 to 75 for men and women in England. Using the 'intercensal' health expectancy approach, annual period HWLE from 1996 to 2014 was estimated using cross-sectional Health Survey for England data and mortality statistics4-7. HWLE projections until the year 2035 were estimated from Lee-Carter forecasts of transition rates8. Projections of life expectancy from age 50 showed gains averaging 10.7 weeks (0.21 years) and 6.4 weeks (0.12 years) per calendar year between 2015 and 2035 for men and women respectively. HWLE has been extending in England but gains are projected to slow to an average of 1 week per year for men (0.02 years) and 2.8 weeks (0.05 years) per year for women between 2015 and 2035. Modest projected HWLE gains and the widening gap between HWLE and life expectancy from age 50 suggest that working lives are not extending in line with policy goals. Further research should identify factors that increase healthy working life.

Predicting pain and function outcomes in people consulting with shoulder pain: the PANDA-S clinical cohort and qualitative study protocol.

INTRODUCTION: People presenting with shoulder pain considered to be of musculoskeletal origin is common in primary care but diagnosing the cause of the pain is contentious, leading to uncertainty in management. To inform optimal primary care for patients with shoulder pain, the study aims to (1) to investigate the short-term and long-term outcomes (overall prognosis) of shoulder pain, (2) estimate costs of care, (3) develop a prognostic model for predicting individuals' level and risk of pain and disability at 6 months and (4) investigate experiences and opinions of patients and healthcare professionals regarding diagnosis, prognosis and management of shoulder pain. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: The Prognostic And Diagnostic Assessment of the Shoulder (PANDA-S) study is a longitudinal clinical cohort with linked qualitative study. At least 400 people presenting to general practice and physiotherapy services in the UK will be recruited. Participants will complete questionnaires at baseline, 3, 6, 12, 24 and 36 months. Short-term data will be collected weekly between baseline and 12 weeks via Short Message Serevice (SMS) text or software application. Participants will be offered clinical (physiotherapist) and ultrasound (sonographer) assessments at baseline. Qualitative interviews with ≈15 dyads of patients and their healthcare professional (general practitioner or physiotherapist).Short-term and long-term trajectories of Shoulder Pain and Disability Index (using SPADI) will be described, using latent class growth analysis. Health economic analysis will estimate direct costs of care and indirect costs related to work absence and productivity losses. Multivariable regression analysis will be used to develop a prognostic model predicting future levels of pain and disability at 6 months using penalisation methods to adjust for overfitting. The added predictive value of prespecified physical examination tests and ultrasound findings will be examined. For the qualitative interviews an inductive, exploratory framework will be adopted using thematic analysis to investigate decision making, perspectives of patients and clinicians on the importance of diagnostic and prognostic information when negotiating treatment and referral options. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The PANDA-S study has ethical approval from Yorkshire and The Humber-Sheffield Research Ethics Committee, UK (18/YH/0346, IRAS Number: 242750). Results will be disseminated through peer-reviewed publications, social and mainstream media, professional conferences, and the patient and public involvement and engagement group supporting this study, and through newsletters, leaflets and posters in participating sites. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN46948079.

A pilot study of a nurse-led integrated care review (the INCLUDE review) for people with inflammatory rheumatological conditions in primary care: feasibility study findings.

BACKGROUND: People with inflammatory rheumatological conditions such as rheumatoid arthritis, psoriatic arthritis, ankylosing spondylitis, polymyalgia rheumatica and giant cell arteritis are at an increased risk of common comorbidities including cardiovascular disease, osteoporosis and mood problems, leading to increased morbidity and mortality. Identifying and treating these problems could lead to improved patient quality of life and outcomes. Despite these risks being well-established, patients currently are not systematically targeted for management interventions for these morbidities. This study aimed to assess the feasibility of conducting a randomised controlled trial (RCT) of a nurse-led integrated care review in primary care to identify and manage these morbidities. METHODS: A pilot cluster RCT was delivered across four UK general practices. Patients with a diagnostic Read code for one of the inflammatory rheumatological conditions of interest were recruited by post. In intervention practices (n = 2), eligible patients were invited to attend the INCLUDE review. Outcome measures included health-related quality of life (EQ-5D-5L), patient activation, self-efficacy and treatment burden. A sample (n = 24) of INCLUDE review consultations were audio-recorded and assessed against a fidelity checklist. RESULTS: 453/789 (57%) patients responded to the invitation, although 114/453 (25%) were excluded as they either did not fulfil eligibility criteria or failed to provide full written consent. In the intervention practices, uptake of the INCLUDE review was high at 72%. Retention at 3 and 6 months both reached pre-specified success criteria. Participants in intervention practices had more primary care contacts than controls (mean 29 vs 22) over the 12 months, with higher prescribing of all relevant medication classes in participants in intervention practices, particularly so for osteoporosis medication (baseline 29% vs 12 month 46%). The intervention was delivered with fidelity, although potential areas for improvement were identified. CONCLUSIONS: The findings of this pilot study suggest it is feasible to deliver an RCT of the nurse-led integrated care (INCLUDE) review in primary care. A significant morbidity burden was identified. Early results suggest the INCLUDE review was associated with changes in practice. Lessons have been learnt around Read codes for patient identification and refining the nurse training. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN, ISRCTN12765345.

Population-based estimates of healthy working life expectancy in England at age 50 years: analysis of data from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing.

BACKGROUND: Retirement ages are rising in many countries to offset the challenges of population ageing, but people's capacity to work for more years in their later working life (>50 years) is unclear. We aimed to estimate healthy working life expectancy in England. METHODS: This analysis included adults aged 50 years and older from six waves (2002-13) of the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA), with linked mortality data. Healthy working life expectancy was defined as the average number of years expected to be spent healthy (no limiting long-standing illness) and in paid work (employment or self-employment) from age 50 years. Healthy working life expectancy was estimated for England overall and stratified by sex, educational attainment, deprivation level, occupation type, and region by use of interpolated Markov chain multi-state modelling. FINDINGS: There were 15 284 respondents (7025 men and 8259 women) with survey and mortality data for the study period. Healthy working life expectancy at age 50 years was on average 9·42 years (10·94 years [95% CI 10·65-11·23] for men and 8·25 years [7·92-8·58] for women) and life expectancy was 31·76 years (30·05 years for men and 33·49 years for women). The number of years expected to be spent unhealthy and in work from age 50 years was 1·84 years (95% CI 1·74-1·94) in England overall. Population subgroups with the longest healthy working life expectancy were the self-employed (11·76 years [95% CI 10·76-12·76]) or those with non-manual occupations (10·32 years [9·95-10·69]), those with a tertiary education (11·27 years [10·74-11·80]), those living in southern England (10·73 years [10·16-11·30] in the South East and 10·51 years [9·80-11·22] in the South West), and those living in the least deprived areas (10·53 years [10·06-10·99]). INTERPRETATION: Healthy working life expectancy at age 50 years in England is below the remaining years to State Pension age. Older workers of lower socioeconomic status and in particular regions in England might benefit from proactive approaches to improve health, workplace environments, and job opportunities to improve their healthy working life expectancy. Continued monitoring of healthy working life expectancy would provide further examination of the success of such approaches and that of policies to extend working lives. FUNDING: Economic and Social Research Council.

Correction to: The association between anxiety and disease activity and quality of life in rheumatoid arthritis: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

The authors of the published original version of the above article wanted to correct the below text in the Abstract section.

The association between anxiety and disease activity and quality of life in rheumatoid arthritis: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVES: In people with rheumatoid arthritis (RA), mental health problems are common, but often not recognized or treated, contributing to increased morbidity and mortality. Most studies examining the impact of mental health problems in RA have focused on depression. We aimed to determine the association between anxiety, and disease activity and quality of life (QoL) in people with RA. METHODS: A systematic review and meta-analysis were performed. A protocol was registered with PROSPERO (CRD2-17062580). Databases (Web of Science, PsycINFO, CINAHL, Embase, Medline) were searched for studies examining the association between anxiety and disease activity and QoL, in adults with RA, from inception to February 2019. Primary outcome measures were DAS28 and SF-36. Eligibility screening and data extraction were completed by two reviewers. Disagreements were resolved by discussion or a third reviewer. Quality assessment was carried out using the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale. RESULTS: From 7712 unique citations, 60 articles were assessed for eligibility. The final review included 20 studies involving 7452 people with RA (14 cross-sectional, 6 cohort). Eleven examined disease activity, 6 reported QoL outcome measures and 3 included both. Anxiety was associated with increased disease activity and worse QoL. Meta-analysis showed anxiety to be correlated with increased DAS28 scores (r = 0.23, CI 0.14, 0.31) and reduced physical (r = - 0.39, CI - 0.57, - 0.20) and mental QoL (- 0.50, CI - 0.57, - 0.43). CONCLUSIONS: Anxiety in people with RA is associated with increased disease activity and worse QoL. Improved recognition and management of comorbid anxiety may help to improve outcomes for people with RA.Key Points• This is the first systematic review and meta-analysis to examine the relationship between anxiety and disease activity and QoL in people with RA.• Anxiety was associated with higher disease activity both cross-sectionally and at up to 12-month follow-up.• Anxiety may have a more significant impact on disease activity in early RA, highlighting the importance of early recognition and management of comorbid anxiety.• People with anxiety had poorer self-reported physical and mental QoL, although there was some heterogeneity in study findings, particularly for physical QoL (I2 = 78.5%).

Open-label randomised pragmatic trial (CONTACT) comparing naproxen and low-dose colchicine for the treatment of gout flares in primary care.

OBJECTIVES: To compare the effectiveness and safety of naproxen and low-dose colchicine for treating gout flares in primary care. METHODS: This was a multicentre open-label randomised trial. Adults with a gout flare recruited from 100 general practices were randomised equally to naproxen 750 mg immediately then 250 mg every 8 hours for 7 days or low-dose colchicine 500 mcg three times per day for 4 days. The primary outcome was change in worst pain intensity in the last 24 hours (0-10 Numeric Rating Scale) from baseline measured daily over the first 7 days: mean change from baseline was compared between groups over days 1-7 by intention to treat. RESULTS: Between 29 January 2014 and 31 December 2015, we recruited 399 participants (naproxen n=200, colchicine n=199), of whom 349 (87.5%) completed primary outcome data at day 7. There was no significant between-group difference in average pain-change scores over days 1-7 (colchicine vs naproxen: mean difference -0.18; 95% CI -0.53 to 0.17; p=0.32). During days 1-7, diarrhoea (45.9% vs 20.0%; OR 3.31; 2.01 to 5.44) and headache (20.5% vs 10.7%; 1.92; 1.03 to 3.55) were more common in the colchicine group than the naproxen group but constipation was less common (4.8% vs 19.3%; 0.24; 0.11 to 0.54). CONCLUSION: We found no difference in pain intensity over 7 days between people with a gout flare randomised to either naproxen or low-dose colchicine. Naproxen caused fewer side effects supporting naproxen as first-line treatment for gout flares in primary care in the absence of contraindications. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN (69836939), clinicaltrials.gov (NCT01994226), EudraCT (2013-001354-95).

Reasons why osteoarthritis predicts mortality: path analysis within a Cox proportional hazards model.

Objectives: To identify potentially modifiable factors that mediate the association between symptomatic osteoarthritis (OA) and premature mortality. Methods: A population-based prospective cohort study; primary care medical record data were linked to self-report information collected by questionnaire in adults aged 50 years and over (n=10 415). OA was defined by primary care consultation and moderate-to-severe pain interference in daily life. A Cox proportional hazards analysis determined the total effect (TE) of OA on mortality after adjustment for potential confounders. Within the Cox model, path analysis was used to decompose the TE to assess the indirect and direct effects for selected potential mediators (anxiety, depression, unrefreshed sleep and walking frequency). Results are expressed as HRs with 95% CIs derived from bootstrap resampling. Results: OA was significantly associated with mortality (TE-adjusted HR 1.14; 95% CI 1.00 to 1.29). The indirect effects for walking frequency were 1.05 (95% CI 1.04 to 1.06), depression 1.02 (95% CI 1.02 to 1.03), anxiety 1.01 (95% CI 1.00 to 1.02) and unrefreshed sleep 1.01 (95% CI 1.00 to 1.01). Conclusions: The analysis indicates that encouraging people to walk and 'get out and about' in addition to targeting OA could be protective against excessive mortality. The findings also suggest that depression, anxiety and unrefreshed sleep have a role in premature mortality for people with OA; however, this has low clinical significance.

Predictors of pain interference and potential gain from intervention in community dwelling adults with joint pain: A prospective cohort study.

INTRODUCTION: There is little research on identifying modifiable risk factors that predict future interference of pain with daily activity in people with joint pain, and the estimation of the corresponding population attributable risk (PAR). The present study therefore investigated modifiable predictors of pain interference and estimated maximum potential gain from intervention in adults with joint pain. METHODS: A population-based cohort aged ≥50 years was recruited from eight general practices in North Staffordshire, UK. Participants (n = 1878) had joint pain at baseline lasting ≥3 months and indicated no pain interference. Adjusted associations of self-reported, potentially modifiable prognostic factors (body mass index, anxiety/depressive symptoms, widespread pain, inadequate joint pain control, physical inactivity, sleep problems, smoking and alcohol intake) with onset of pain interference 3 years later were estimated via Poisson regression, and corresponding PAR estimates were obtained. RESULTS: Inadequate joint-specific pain control, insomnia and infrequent walking were found to be independently significantly associated with the onset of pain interference after 3 years, with associated PARs of 6.3% (95% confidence interval -0.3, 12.4), 7.6% (-0.4, 15.0) and 8.0% (0.1, 15.2), respectively, with only the PAR for infrequent walking deemed statistically significant. The PAR associated with insomnia, infrequent walking and inadequate control of joint pain simultaneously was 20.3% (8.6, 30.4). CONCLUSIONS: There is potential to reduce moderately the onset of pain interference from joint pain in the over-50s if clinical and public health interventions targeted pain management and insomnia, and promoted an active lifestyle. However, most of the onset of significant pain interference in the over-50s, would not be prevented, even assuming that these factors could be eliminated.

Examining management and research priorities in patients with polymyalgia rheumatica: a primary care questionnaire survey.

INTRODUCTION/OBJECTIVES: Polymyalgia rheumatica (PMR) is a common inflammatory disorder that is usually managed with oral glucocorticoids, which although effective can cause significant adverse events. Support group survey data suggests length of glucocorticoid treatment and managing side effects are key priority areas of management for patients. Recognising that not all patients will access patient support organisations, our objective was to identify priorities for PMR management and research among primary care PMR patients. METHOD: All adults aged ≥ 50 years registered with 150 English general practices who had a first read code for PMR in their medical records in the preceding 3 years were mailed a self-completion questionnaire (n = 704). Survey items included questions regarding patient priorities for PMR management (from a pre-defined list of 10 items) and suggestions for future research (8 items, plus a free-text option), which were developed in collaboration with PMRGCAuk. RESULTS: Five hundred fifty patients responded (78%). The mean (SD) age was 74.1 (8.5) years and 361 (66%) were female. Priority research areas were focused on how to better manage pain, stiffness and fatigue (431, 78%), improving the diagnosis of PMR (393, 71%) and steroid management (342, 62%). CONCLUSIONS: This survey of PMR patients suggests that symptom management, early diagnosis and managing medication are key areas for patients for future research. Researchers and funding organisations should be aware of these priorities if we are to generate research findings that are relevant to the widest range of stakeholders.

The Risk of Gout Among Patients With Sleep Apnea: A Matched Cohort Study.

OBJECTIVE: Obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) is associated with a range of serious comorbidities. This study was undertaken to investigate whether people with OSA are more likely to develop gout, in the short and long term, compared to those without OSA. METHODS: A matched retrospective cohort study was undertaken using the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink. Individuals age ≥18 years who received a diagnosis of OSA between 1990 and 2010 were identified and matched on age, sex, and practice with up to 4 individuals without OSA; follow-up was until the end of 2015. Hazard ratios (HRs) were estimated using Cox regression adjusted for general health, lifestyle, and comorbidity characteristics. The risk of developing gout was assessed at different time points, and the body mass index (BMI) category-specific results were presented. RESULTS: The study sample included 15,879 patients with OSA and 63,296 without. The median follow-up was 5.8 years. We found that 4.9% of patients with OSA and 2.6% of patients without the disorder developed gout. The incidence rate per 1,000 person-years was 7.83 (95% confidence interval [95% CI] 7.29-8.40) and 4.03 (95% CI 3.84-4.23) among those with and without OSA, respectively. The adjusted HR was 1.42 (95% CI 1.29-1.56). The risk of developing gout among OSA patients compared to those without was highest 1-2 years after the index date (HR 1.64 [95% CI 1.30-2.06]). This finding persisted among those who were overweight and obese. For those with normal BMI, the highest significant HR (2.02 [95% CI 1.13-3.62]) was observed at 2-5 years after the index date. CONCLUSION: In this study, patients with OSA continued to be at higher risk of developing gout beyond the first year following the diagnosis. Our results further indicate that peak incidences of gout vary according to BMI.