MELD score for prediction of survival after emergent TIPS for acute variceal hemorrhage: derivation and validation in a 101-patient cohort.

UNLABELLED: BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY: The Model for End Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score has not been derived and validated for the emergent transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) population. We sought to identify predictive factors for survival among emergent TIPS patients, and to substantiate MELD for outcomes prognostication in this population. RESULTS: 101 patients with acute life threatening variceal hemorrhage underwent emergent TIPS (defined by failed endoscopic therapy for active bleeding, acute hemoglobin drop, ≥ 2-unit transfusion requirement, and/or vasopressor need) at between 1998-2013. Demographic, clinical, laboratory, and procedure parameters were analyzed for correlation with mortality using Cox proportional hazards regression to derive the prognostic value of MELD constituents. Area under receiver operator characteristic (AUROC) curves was used to assess the capability of MELD prediction of mortality. TIPS were created 119 ± 167 h after initial bleeding events. Hemodynamic success was achieved in 90%. Median final portosystemic pressure gradient was 8 mmHg. Variceal rebleeding incidence was 21%. The four original MELD components showed significant correlation with mortality on multivariate Cox regression: baseline bilirubin (regression coefficient 0.366), creatinine (0.621), international normalized ratio (1.111), and liver disease etiology (0.808), validating the MELD system for emergent cases. No other significant predictive parameters were identified. MELD was an excellent predictor of 90-day mortality in the emergent TIPS population (AUROC = 0.842, 95% CI 0.755-0.928). CONCLUSIONS: Based on independent derivation of prognostic constituents and confirmation of predictive accuracy, MELD is a valid and reliable metric for risk stratification and survival projection after emergent TIPS.

Right atrial pressure may impact early survival of patients undergoing transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt creation.

PURPOSE: To elucidate the impact of right atrial (RA) pressure on early mortality after transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS). MATERIAL AND METHODS: In this single institution retrospective study, 125 patients (M:F = 75:50, mean age 55 years) who underwent TIPS with recorded intra-procedural RA pressures between 1999-2012 were studied. Demographic (age, gender), liver disease (Child-Pugh, Model for End Stage Liver Disease or MELD score), and procedure (indication, urgency, Stent type, portosystemic gradient or PSG reduction, baseline and post-TIPS RA pressure) data were identified, and the influence of these parameters on 30- and 90-day mortality was assessed using binary logistic regression. RESULTS: TIPS were created for variceal hemorrhage (n = 55) and ascites (n = 70). Hemodynamic success rate was 99% (124/125) and mean PSG reduction was 13 mmHg. 30- and 90-day mortality rates were 18% (19/106) and 28% (29/106). Baseline and final RA pressure were significantly associated with 30- (12 vs. 15 mmHg, P = 0.021; 18 vs. 21 mmHg, P = 0.035) and 90-day (12 vs. 14 mmHg, P = 0.022; 18 vs. 20 mmHg, P = 0.024) survival on univariate analysis. Predictive usefulness of RA pressure was not confirmed in multivariate analyses. Area under receiver operator characteristic (AUROC) curve analysis revealed good pre- and post-TIPS RA pressure predictive capacity for 30- (0.779, 0.810) and 90-day (0.813, 0.788) mortality among variceal hemorrhage patients at 14.5 and 21.5 mm Hg thresholds. CONCLUSION: Intra-procedural RA pressure may have predictive value for early post-TIPS mortality. Pre-procedure consideration and optimization of patient cardiac status may enhance candidate selection, risk stratification, and clinical outcomes, particularly in variceal hemorrhage patients.

Imaging surveillance and multidisciplinary review improves curative therapy access and survival in HCC patients.

INTRODUCTION: Imaging surveillance and multidisciplinary conference (MDC) review can potentially improve survival in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) by increasing access to liver transplantation. Geographic disparities in donor organ availability may reduce this benefit. This study evaluated the impact of HCC surveillance on use of curative therapies and survival in a region with long transplant waiting times. MATERIAL AND METHODS: 167 HCC patients were retrospectively studied. Subjects had an established HCC diagnosis or were diagnosed during hepatology follow-up. Collected data included patient demographics, HCC surveillance and MDC review status, portal hypertension complications, laboratory and radiologic parameters, tumor size, therapeutic interventions, tumor progression, and mortality. The primary outcome measures were use of curative treatments and survival. A Cox-regression model was constructed utilizing factors associated with survival in univariate analysis. RESULTS: 58% of subjects underwent surveillance and MDC review of HCC. These patients were more likely to have received treatment with ablation or resection (16 vs. 3%, P = 0.006) and transplantation (23 vs. 4%, P = 0.001), and were less likely to develop tumor progression (45 vs. 68%, P = 0.005) or metastases (0 vs. 19%, P < 0.001). In multivariate analysis, surveillance and MDC review (P = 0.034, HR 0.520, 95% CI 0.284-0.952), tumor meeting Milan criteria (P < 0.001, HR 0.329, 95% CI 0.178-0.607), curative therapy application (P = 0.048, HR 0.130, 95% CI 0.017-0.979), and transplantation (P = 0.004, HR 0.236, 95% CI 0.088-0.632) were associated with survival. CONCLUSION: In conclusion, imaging surveillance and MDC review is associated with detection of early stage HCC, increased access to curative therapies and transplantation, and prolonged survival.

Within-patient temporal variance in MELD score and impact on survival prediction after TIPS creation.

BACKGROUND: To assess within-patient temporal variability in Model for End Stage Liver Disease (MELD) scores and impact on outcome prognostication after transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) creation. MATERIAL AND METHODS: In this single institution retrospective study, MELD score was calculated in 68 patients (M:F = 42:26, mean age 55 years) at 4 pre-procedure time points (1, 2-6, 7-14, and 15-35 days) before TIPS creation. Medical record review was used to identify 30- and 90-day clinical outcomes. Within-patient variability in pre-procedure MELD scores was assessed using repeated measures analysis of variance, and the ability of MELD scores at different time points to predict post-TIPS mortality was evaluated by comparing area under receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curves. RESULTS: TIPS were successfully created for ascites (n = 30), variceal hemorrhage (n = 29), hepatic hydrothorax (n = 8), and portal vein thrombosis (n = 1). Pre-TIPS MELD scores showed significant (P = 0.032) within-subject variance that approached ± 18.5%. Higher MELD scores demonstrated greater variability in sequential scores as compared to lower MELD scores. Overall 30- and 90-day patient mortality was 22% (15/67) and 38% (24/64). AUROC curves showed that most recent MELD scores performed on the day of TIPS had superior predictive capacity for 30- (0.876, P = 0.037) and 90-day (0.805 P = 0.020) mortality compared to MELD scores performed 2-6 or 7-14 days prior. CONCLUSIONS: In conclusion, MELD scores show within-patient variability over time, and scores calculated on the day of TIPS most accurately predict risk and should be used for patient selection and counseling.