Genetic and epidemiological description of an outbreak of circulating vaccine-derived polio-virus type 2 (cVDPV2) in Angola, 2019-2020.

After six years without any detection of poliomyelitis cases, Angola reported a case of circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus type 2 (cVDPV2) with paralysis onset date of 27 March 2019. Ultimately, 141 cVDPV2 polio cases were reported in all 18 provinces in 2019-2020, with particularly large hotspots in the south-central provinces of Luanda, Cuanza Sul, and Huambo. Most cases were reported from August to December 2019, with a peak of 15 cases in October 2019. These cases were classified into five distinct genetic emergences (emergence groups) and have ties with cases identified in 2017-2018 in the Democratic Republic of Congo. From June 2019 to July 2020, the Angola Ministry of Health and partners conducted 30 supplementary immunization activity (SIA) rounds as part of 10 campaign groups, using monovalent OPV type 2 (mOPV2). There were Sabin 2 vaccine strain detections in the environmental (sewage) samples taken after mOPV2 SIAs in each province. Following the initial response, additional cVDPV2 polio cases occurred in other provinces. However, the national surveillance system did not detect any new cVDPV2 polio cases after 9 February 2020. While reporting subpar indicator performance in epidemiological surveillance, the laboratory and environmental data as of May 2021 strongly suggest that Angola successfully interrupted transmission of cVDPV2 early in 2020. Additionally, the COVID-19 pandemic did not allow a formal Outbreak Response Assessment (OBRA). Improving the sensitivity of the surveillance system and the completeness of AFP case investigations will be vital to promptly detect and interrupt viral transmission if a new case or sewage isolate are identified in Angola or central Africa.

Genetic Characterization of Novel Oral Polio Vaccine Type 2 Viruses During Initial Use Phase Under Emergency Use Listing - Worldwide, March-October 2021.

The emergence and international spread of neurovirulent circulating vaccine-derived polioviruses (cVDPVs) across multiple countries in Africa and Asia in recent years pose a major challenge to the goal of eradicating all forms of polioviruses. Approximately 90% of all cVDPV outbreaks are caused by the type 2 strain of the Sabin vaccine, an oral live, attenuated vaccine; cVDPV outbreaks typically occur in areas of persistently low immunization coverage (1). A novel type 2 oral poliovirus vaccine (nOPV2), produced by genetic modification of the type 2 Sabin vaccine virus genome (2), was developed and evaluated through phase I and phase II clinical trials during 2017-2019. nOPV2 was demonstrated to be safe and well-tolerated, have noninferior immunogenicity, and have superior genetic stability compared with Sabin monovalent type 2 (as measured by preservation of the primary attenuation site [domain V in the 5' noncoding region] and significantly lower neurovirulence of fecally shed vaccine virus in transgenic mice) (3-5). These findings indicate that nOPV2 could be an important tool in reducing the risk for generating vaccine-derived polioviruses (VDPVs) and the risk for vaccine-associated paralytic poliomyelitis cases. Based on the favorable preclinical and clinical data, and the public health emergency of international concern generated by ongoing endemic wild poliovirus transmission and cVDPV type 2 outbreaks, the World Health Organization authorized nOPV2 for use under the Emergency Use Listing (EUL) pathway in November 2020, allowing for its first use for outbreak response in March 2021 (6). As required by the EUL process, among other EUL obligations, an extensive plan was developed and deployed for obtaining and monitoring nOPV2 isolates detected during acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) surveillance, environmental surveillance, adverse events after immunization surveillance, and targeted surveillance for adverse events of special interest (i.e., prespecified events that have the potential to be causally associated with the vaccine product), during outbreak response, as well as through planned field studies. Under this monitoring framework, data generated from whole-genome sequencing of nOPV2 isolates, alongside other virologic data for isolates from AFP and environmental surveillance systems, are reviewed by the genetic characterization subgroup of an nOPV working group of the Global Polio Eradication Initiative. Global nOPV2 genomic surveillance during March-October 2021 confirmed genetic stability of the primary attenuating site. Sequence data generated through this unprecedented global effort confirm the genetic stability of nOPV2 relative to Sabin 2 and suggest that nOPV2 will be an important tool in the eradication of poliomyelitis. nOPV2 surveillance should continue for the duration of the EUL.

Spatial analysis of genetic clusters and epidemiologic factors related to wild poliovirus type 1 persistence in Afghanistan and Pakistan.

Following the certification of the World Health Organization Region of Africa as free of serotype 1 wild poliovirus (WPV1) in 2020, Afghanistan and Pakistan represent the last remaining WPV1 reservoirs. As efforts continue in these countries to progress to eradication, there is an opportunity for a deeper understanding of the spatiotemporal characteristics and epidemiological risk factors associated with continual WPV1 circulation in the region. Using poliovirus surveillance data from 2017-2019, we used pairwise comparisons of VP1 nucleotide sequences to illustrate the spatiotemporal WPV1 dispersal to identify key sources and destinations of potentially infected, highly mobile populations. We then predicted the odds of WPV1 detection at the district level using a generalized linear model with structural indicators of health, security, environment, and population demographics. We identified evidence of widespread population mobility based on WPV1 dispersal within and between the countries, and evidence indicating five districts in Afghanistan (Arghandab, Batikot, Bermel, Muhamandara and Nawzad) and four districts in Pakistan (Charsada, Dera Ismail Khan, Killa Abdullah and Khyber) act as cross-border WPV1 circulation reservoirs. We found that the probability of detecting WPV1 in a district increases with each armed conflict event (OR = 1·024, +- 0·008), level of food insecurity (OR = 1·531, +-0·179), and mean degrees Celsius during the months of greatest precipitation (OR = 1·079, +- 0·019). Our results highlight the multidisciplinary complexities contributing to the continued transmission of WPV1 in Afghanistan and Pakistan. We discuss the implications of our results, stressing the value of coordination during this final chapter of the wild polio virus eradication initiative.

Progress Toward Poliomyelitis Eradication - Pakistan, January 2019-September 2020.

Pakistan and Afghanistan are the only countries where wild poliovirus type 1 (WPV1) is endemic (1,2). In 2019, Pakistan reported 147 WPV1 cases, approximately 12 times the number reported in 2018. As of September 15, 72 cases had been reported in 2020. Since 2019, WPV1 transmission has also spread from Pakistan's core poliovirus reservoirs (Karachi, Peshawar, and Quetta block) to southern districts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP), Punjab, and Sindh provinces. Further, an outbreak of circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus type 2 (cVDPV2), first detected in July 2019, has caused 22 paralytic cases in 2019 and 59 as of September 15, 2020, throughout the country. The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has substantially reduced delivery of polio vaccines through essential immunization (formerly routine immunization) and prevented implementation of polio supplementary immunization activities (SIAs)* during March-July 2020. This report describes Pakistan's progress in polio eradication during January 2019-September 2020 and updates previous reports (1,3,4). The Pakistan polio program has reinitiated SIAs and will need large, intensive, high-quality campaigns with strategic use of available oral poliovirus vaccines (OPVs)† to control the surge and widespread transmission of WPV1 and cVDPV2.

Progress Toward Poliomyelitis Eradication - Pakistan, January 2018-September 2019.

Afghanistan and Pakistan are the only countries that continue to confirm ongoing wild poliovirus type 1 (WPV1) transmission (1). During January 2018-September 2019 the number of WPV1 cases in Pakistan increased, compared with the number during the previous 4 years. This report updates previous reports on Pakistan's polio eradication activities, progress, and challenges (2,3). In 2018, Pakistan reported 12 WPV1 cases, a 50% increase from eight cases in 2017, and a 31% increase in the proportion of WPV1-positive sites under environmental surveillance (i.e., sampling of sewage to detect poliovirus). As of November 7, 2019, 80 WPV1 cases had been reported, compared with eight cases by the same time in 2018. An intensive schedule of supplementary immunization activities (SIAs)* implemented by community health workers in the core reservoirs (i.e., Karachi, Peshawar, and Quetta) where WPV1 circulation has never been interrupted, and by mobile teams, has failed to interrupt WPV1 transmission in core reservoirs and prevent WPV1 resurgence in nonreservoir areas. Sewage samples have indicated wide WPV1 transmission in nonreservoir areas in other districts and provinces. Vaccine refusals, chronically missed children, community campaign fatigue, and poor vaccination management and implementation have exacerbated the situation. To overcome challenges to vaccinating children who are chronically missed in SIAs and to attain country and global polio eradication goals, substantial changes are needed in Pakistan's polio eradication program, including continuing cross-border coordination with Afghanistan, gaining community trust, conducting high-quality vaccination campaigns, improving oversight of field activities, and improving managerial processes to unify eradication efforts.

Progress Toward Poliomyelitis Eradication - Pakistan, January 2017-September 2018.

Among the three wild poliovirus (WPV) serotypes, only WPV type 1 (WPV1) has been reported in polio cases or detected from environmental surveillance globally since 2012. Pakistan remains one of only three countries worldwide (the others are Afghanistan and Nigeria) that has never had interrupted WPV1 transmission. This report documents Pakistan's activities and progress toward polio eradication during January 2017-September 2018 and updates previous reports (1,2). In 2017, Pakistan reported eight WPV1 cases, a 60% decrease from 20 cases in 2016. As of September 18, 2018, four cases had been reported, compared with five cases at that time in 2017. Nonetheless, in 2018, WPV1 continues to be isolated regularly from environmental surveillance sites, primarily in the core reservoir areas of Karachi, Quetta, and Peshawar, signifying persistent transmission. Strategies to increase childhood immunity have included an intense schedule of supplemental immunization activities (SIAs), expanding and refining deployment of community-based vaccination implemented by community health workers recruited from the local community in reservoir areas, and strategic placement of permanent transit points where vaccination is provided to mobile populations. Interruption of WPV1 transmission will require further programmatic improvements throughout the country with a focus on specific underperforming subdistricts in reservoir areas.

PoSE: visualization of patterns of sequence evolution using PAML and MATLAB.

BACKGROUND: Determining patterns of nucleotide and amino acid substitution is the first step during sequence evolution analysis. However, it is not easy to visualize the different phylogenetic signatures imprinted in aligned nucleotide and amino acid sequences. RESULTS: Here we present PoSE (Pattern of Sequence Evolution), a reliable resource for unveiling the evolutionary history of sequence alignments and for graphically displaying their contents. Substitutions are displayed by category (transitions and transversions), codon position, and phenotypic effect (synonymous and nonsynonymous). Visualization is accomplished using MATLAB scripts wrapped around PAML (Phylogenetic Analysis by Maximum Likelihood), implemented in an easy-to-use graphical user interface. The application displays inferred substitutions estimated by baseml or codeml, two programs included in the PAML software package. PoSE organizes patterns of substitution in eleven plots, including estimated non-synonymous/synonymous ratios (dN/dS) along the sequence alignment. In addition, PoSE provides visualization and annotation of patterns of amino acid substitutions along groups of related sequences that can be graphically inspected in a phylogenetic tree window. CONCLUSIONS: PoSE is a useful tool to help determine major patterns during sequence evolution of protein-coding sequences, hypervariable regions, or changes in dN/dS ratios. PoSE is publicly available at https://github.com/CDCgov/PoSE.

Are Circulating Type 2 Vaccine-derived Polioviruses (VDPVs) Genetically Distinguishable from Immunodeficiency-associated VDPVs?

Public health response to vaccine-derived poliovirus (VDPV) that is transmitted from person to person (circulating VDPV [cVDPV]) differs significantly from response to virus that replicates in individuals with primary immunodeficiency (immunodeficiency-associated VDPV [iVDPV]). cVDPV outbreaks require a community immunization response, whereas iVDPV chronic infections require careful patient monitoring and appropriate individual treatment. To support poliovirus outbreak response, particularly for type 2 VDPV, we investigated the genetic distinctions between cVDPV2 and iVDPV2 sequences. We observed that simple genetic measurements of nucleotide and amino acid substitutions are sufficient for distinguishing highly divergent iVDPV2 from cVDPV2 sequences, but are insufficient to make a clear distinction between the two categories among less divergent sequences. We presented quantitative approaches using genetic information as a surveillance tool for early detection of VDPV outbreaks. This work suggests that genetic variations between cVDPV2 and iVDPV2 may reflect differences in viral micro-environments, host-virus interactions, and selective pressures during person-to-person transmission compared with chronic infections in immunodeficient patients.