Establishing the Suitability of the Model for Prediction Across Scales for Global Retrospective Air Quality Modeling.

The U.S. EPA is leveraging recent advances in meteorological modeling to construct an air quality modeling system to allow consistency from global to local scales. The Model for Prediction Across Scales-Atmosphere (MPAS-A or MPAS) has been developed by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) as a global complement to the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF). Patterned after a regional coupled system with WRF, the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling system has been coupled within MPAS to explore global-to-local chemical transport modeling. Several options were implemented into MPAS for retrospective applications. Nudging-based data assimilation was added to support continuous simulations of past weather to minimize error growth that exists with a weather forecast configuration. The Pleim-Xiu land-surface model, the Asymmetric Convective Model 2 boundary layer scheme, and the Pleim surface layer scheme were added as the preferred options for retrospective air quality applications with WRF. Annual simulations were conducted using this EPA-enhanced MPAS configuration on two different mesh structures and compared against WRF. MPAS generally compares well with WRF over the conterminous United States. Errors in MPAS surface meteorology are comparable to WRF throughout the year. Precipitation statistics indicate MPAS performs slightly better than WRF. Solar radiation in MPAS is higher than WRF and measurements, suggesting fewer clouds in MPAS than WRF. Upper-air meteorology is well-simulated by MPAS, but errors are slightly higher than WRF. These comparisons lend confidence to use MPAS for retrospective air quality modeling and suggest ways it can be further improved in the future.

Intercomparison study of atmospheric mercury models: 2. Modelling results vs. long-term observations and comparison of country deposition budgets.

Five regional scale models with a horizontal domain covering the European continent and its surrounding seas, two hemispheric and one global scale model participated in the atmospheric Hg modelling intercomparison study. The models were compared between each other and with available measurements from 11 monitoring stations of the EMEP measurement network. Because only a very limited number of long-term measurement records of Hg were available, significant attention was given to the intercomparison of modelling results. Monthly and annually averaged values of Hg concentrations and depositions as well as items of the Hg deposition budgets for individual European countries were compared. The models demonstrated good agreement (within +/-20%) between annual modelled and observed values of gaseous elemental Hg. Modelled values of Hg wet deposition in Western and Central Europe agreed with the observations within +/-45%. The probability to predict wet depositions within a factor of 2 with regard to measurements was 50-70% for all the models. The scattering of modelling results for dry depositions of Hg was more significant (up to +/-50% at the annual scale and even higher for monthly data). Contribution of dry deposition to the total Hg deposition was estimated at 20-30% with elevated dry deposition fluxes during summer time. The participating models agree in their predictions of transboundary pollution for individual countries within +/-60% at the monthly scale and within +/-30% at the annual scale. For the cases investigated, all the models predict that the major part of national anthropogenic Hg emissions is transported outside the country territory.

Intercomparison study of atmospheric mercury models: 1. Comparison of models with short-term measurements.

Five regional scale models with a horizontal domain covering the European continent and its surrounding seas, one hemispheric and one global scale model participated in an atmospheric mercury modelling intercomparison study. Model-predicted concentrations in ambient air were compared against mercury species observed at four monitoring stations in Central and Northern Europe and a station on the Irish west coast. The modelled concentrations of total particulate mercury (TPM) were generally consistent with the measurements at all sites. The models exhibited significant ability to simulate concentrations of gaseous elemental mercury (GEM), but some of the short-duration peaks at the Central European stations could not be consistently reproduced. Possible reasons for these discrepancies include (1) errors in the anthropogenic emissions inventory utilized; (2) coarse spatial resolution of the models; and (3) uncertainty of natural and re-emitted mercury sources. The largest discrepancies between measurements and modelled concentrations were found for reactive gaseous mercury (RGM). For these models, the uncertainty in predicting short-term (two-week episode) variations of mercury species in air can be characterized by the following overall statistics: 90% of the results for TGM are within a factor of 1.35 of the measurements; for TPM, 90% are within a factor of 2.5; and for RGM, 90% are within a factor of 10.