Stochastic Modeling of Groundwater Extractions over a Data-Sparse Region of Australia.

Setting limit on groundwater extractions is important to ensure sustainable groundwater management. Lack of extraction data can affect interpretations of historical pressure changes, predictions of future impacts, accuracy of groundwater model calibration, and identification of sustainable management options. Yet, many groundwater extractions are unmetered. Therefore, there is a need for models that estimate extraction rates and quantify model outputs uncertainties arising due to a lack of data. This paper develops such a model within the Generalized Linear Modeling (GLM) framework, using a case study of stock and domestic (SD) extractions in the Surat Cumulative Management Area, a predominantly cattle farming region in eastern Australia. Various types of extraction observations were used, ranging from metering to analytically-derived estimates. GLMs were developed and applied to estimate the property-level extraction amounts, where observation types were weighted by perceived relative accuracy, and well usage status. The primary variables found to affect property-level extraction rates were: yearly average temperature and rainfall, pasture, property area, and number of active wells; while variables most affecting well usage were well water electrical conductivity, spatial coordinates, and well age. Results were compared with analytical estimates of property-level extraction, illustrating uncertainties and potential biases across 20 hydrogeological units. Spatial patterns of mean extraction rates (and standard deviations) are presented. It is concluded that GLMs are well suited to the problem of extraction rate estimation and uncertainty analysis, and are ideal when model verification is supported by measurement of a random sample of properties.

A multi-disciplinary approach to understanding the impacts of mines on traditional uses of water in Northern Mongolia.

Mongolia is an example of a nation where the rapidity of mining development is outpacing capacity to manage the potential land and water resources impacts. Further, Mongolia has a particular social and economic reliance on traditional uses of land and water, principally livestock herding. While some mining operations are setting high standards in protecting the natural resources surrounding the mine site, others have less incentive and capacity to do so and therefore are having adverse effects on surrounding communities. The paper describes a case study of the Sharyn Gol Soum in northern Mongolia where a range of mining types, from artisanal, small-scale mining to a large coal mine, operate alongside traditional herding lifestyles. A multi-disciplinary approach is taken to observe and attribute causes to the water resources impacts in the area. Surveys of the herding household community, land use mapping, and monitoring the spatial variations in water quality indicate deterioration of water resources. Collectively, the different sources of evidence suggest that the deterioration is mainly due to small-scale gold mining. The evidence included the perception of 78% of the interviewed herders that water quality had changed due to mining; a change in the footprint of small-scale gold mining from 2.8 to 15.2km(2) during the period 1999 to 2015; and pH and sulphate values in 2015 consistently outside the ranges observed at a baseline site in the same region. It is concluded that the lack of baseline data and effective governance mechanisms are fundamental challenges that need to be addressed if Mongolia's transition to a mining economy is to be managed alongside sustainability of herder lifestyles.