Causal analysis identifies small HDL particles and physical activity as key determinants of longevity of older adults.

BACKGROUND: The hard endpoint of death is one of the most significant outcomes in both clinical practice and research settings. Our goal was to discover direct causes of longevity from medically accessible data. METHODS: Using a framework that combines local causal discovery algorithms with discovery of maximally predictive and compact feature sets (the "Markov boundaries" of the response) and equivalence classes, we examined 186 variables and their relationships with survival over 27 years in 1507 participants, aged ≥71 years, of the longitudinal, community-based D-EPESE study. FINDINGS: As few as 8-15 variables predicted longevity at 2-, 5- and 10-years with predictive performance (area under receiver operator characteristic curve) of 0·76 (95% CIs 0·69, 0·83), 0·76 (0·72, 0·81) and 0·66 (0·61, 0·71), respectively. Numbers of small high-density lipoprotein particles, younger age, and fewer pack years of cigarette smoking were the strongest determinants of longevity at 2-, 5- and 10-years, respectively. Physical function was a prominent predictor of longevity at all time horizons. Age and cognitive function contributed to predictions at 5 and 10 years. Age was not among the local 2-year prediction variables (although significant in univariable analysis), thus establishing that age is not a direct cause of 2-year longevity in the context of measured factors in our data that determine longevity. INTERPRETATION: The discoveries in this study proceed from causal data science analyses of deep clinical and molecular phenotyping data in a community-based cohort of older adults with known lifespan. FUNDING: NIH/NIA R01AG054840, R01AG12765, and P30-AG028716, NIH/NIA Contract N01-AG-12102 and NCRR 1UL1TR002494-01.

Determinants of Maintenance and Recovery of Function in a Representative Older Community-Resident Biracial Sample.

OBJECTIVES: Focus on decline in performance of activities of daily living (ADL) has not been matched by studies of recovery of function. Advised by a broad conceptual model of physical resilience, we ascertain characteristics that identify (1) maintenance, (2) decline, and (3) recovery of personal self-maintenance activities over six years in an older, community representative, African American and white sample. DESIGN: Longitudinal study, analyses included descriptive statistics and repeated measures proportional hazards. SETTING/PARTICIPANTS: Community-representative participants of the Duke Established Populations for Epidemiologic Studies of the Elderly (EPESE), unimpaired at baseline (n = 3187; 46% white, 54% African American; 64% female, 36% male), followed annually for up to 6 years. MEASURES: Data included information on basic activities of daily living (BADL), demographic characteristics, health status, social services provided and received, household size, neighborhood safety, and survival status. RESULTS: Over 6 years, ∼75% remained unimpaired, of whom 30% were unimpaired when they dropped out or died. Of ∼25% who became impaired, just under half recovered. Controlled analyses indicated that those who became impaired were in poorer health, younger, and more likely to be African American. Characteristics of recovery included younger age, not hospitalized in the previous year, and larger household size. CONCLUSIONS/IMPLICATIONS: Maintenance of health status facilitated continued unimpaired BADL. While decline was associated with poorer health, younger age, and being African American, recovery was also associated with younger age, together with larger household size, and no further deterioration in health as measured here. Maintenance of good health is preferred, but following decline in functioning, increased effort to improve health and avoid further decline, which takes into account not only physical but also personal social conditions, is needed.

Association of Co-Existing Impairments in Cognition and Self-Rated Vision and Hearing With Health Outcomes in Older Adults.

OBJECTIVES: To assess the relationship of disability (activities of daily living (ADL) and instrumental ADL (IADL)), self-rated health (SRH), and 6-year mortality with co-existing impairments in vision (self-rated), hearing (self-rated) and/or cognition (Short Portable Mental Status Questionnaire) in older adults. METHODS: The study sample was comprised of 3871 participants from the North Carolina Established Populations for Epidemiologic Studies of the Elderly study (NC EPESE). RESULTS: Persons with all three impairments had increased odds of ADL/IADL disability, and low SRH. Participants with combined visual and cognitive impairments had increased odds of mortality. While sensory impairments were associated with poor SRH, cognitive impairment was not unless both sensory impairments were present. DISCUSSION: Co-existent sensory and cognitive impairments were associated with higher risk of impaired functional status. Self-rated auditory impairment alone was not associated with higher odds of death, but mortality was linked to visual, and particularly cognitive impairment, alone or combined.

Psychotic experiences and risk of death in the general population: 24-27 year follow-up of the Epidemiologic Catchment Area study.

BACKGROUND: Psychotic experiences are common in the general population and are associated with adverse psychiatric and social outcomes, even in the absence of a psychotic disorder. AIMS: To examine the association between psychotic experiences and mortality over a 24-27 year period. METHOD: We used data on 15 049 adult participants from four sites of the Epidemiologic Catchment Area baseline survey in the USA in the early 1980s, linked to the National Death Index and other sources of vital status up until 2007. Psychotic experiences were assessed by the Diagnostic Interview Schedule. RESULTS: Lifetime psychotic experiences at baseline (n = 855; weighted prevalence, 5.5%) were significantly associated with all-cause mortality at follow-up after adjustment for sociodemographic characteristics and psychiatric diagnoses, including schizophrenia spectrum disorders (P<0.05). Baseline psychotic experiences were associated with over 5 years' shorter median survival time. Among the underlying causes of death, suicide had a particularly high hazard ratio (9.16, 95% CI 3.19-26.29). CONCLUSIONS: Future research needs to explore the association of psychotic experiences with physical health and lifestyle factors that may mediate the relationship of psychotic experiences with mortality.

The effectiveness of antidepressant monotherapy in a naturalistic outpatient setting.

OBJECTIVE: To assess a representative sample of clinically depressed outpatients during acute treatment with antidepressant medication monotherapy to determine clinical outcomes and evaluate relationships between outcomes and selected baseline/treatment features. METHOD: This naturalistic study examined data on outpatients at the Department of Psychiatry, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, North Carolina, from January 2000 through December 2010. Eligible patients (N = 1,722) had a diagnosis of clinical depression (major depressive disorder, dysthymic disorder, or depressive disorder not otherwise specified as defined in DSM-IV-TR). Sociodemographic/clinical data were gathered at study entry (date of first treatment). The Clinical Global Impressions-improvement (CGI-I) and -severity of illness (CGI-S) scales were administered at entry and at study exit (end of follow-up) after 1 to 9 weeks of treatment. Analysis of variance, F tests, and t tests determined relationships between outcomes and treatment duration, baseline severity, and sociodemographic/clinical features. RESULTS: Thirty-nine percent of participants reported substantial improvement (CGI-I score = 1 or 2) from entry to exit, 33% reported minimal improvement (CGI-I score = 3), 22% reported no change, and approximately 7% reported worsened illness. Greater improvement (CGI-I score) and greater reduction in depressive severity (CGI-S score) were associated with greater baseline depressive severity and longer treatment duration (all P < .001). Participants with greater baseline depressive severity experienced larger reductions in depressive severity but reported worse CGI-I scores at exit. Less improvement in CGI-I scores was seen in women compared to men (P = .018). Less improvement in CGI-I scores and less reduction in CGI-S scores were seen in participants ≤ 60 years of age (P = .040 and P = .025, respectively) and those with comorbid substance abuse (P < .001 and P = .010, respectively) or anxiety (P = .018 and P < .001, respectively) disorders. CONCLUSIONS: Most depressive symptom improvement occurred within the first 4 to 6 weeks of antidepressant monotherapy. Greater baseline severity, comorbid substance abuse, and comorbid anxiety disorders are associated with worse outcomes.

Norms for CERAD constructional praxis recall.

Recall of the four-item constructional praxis measure was a later addition to the Consortium to Establish a Registry for Alzheimer's Disease (CERAD) neuropsychological battery. Norms for this measure, based on cognitively intact African Americans age ≥70 (Indianapolis-Ibadan Dementia Project, N=372), European American participants age ≥66 (Cache County Study of Memory, Health and Aging, N=507), and European American CERAD clinic controls age ≥50 (N = 182), are presented here. Performance varied by site; by sex, education, and age (African Americans in Indianapolis); education and age (Cache County European Americans); and only age (CERAD European American controls). Performance declined with increased age, within age with less education, and was poorer for women. Means, standard deviations, and percentiles are presented separately for each sample.

Identifying a national death index match.

Data from the National Death Index (NDI) are frequently used to determine survival status in epidemiologic or clinical studies. On the basis of selected information submitted by the investigator, NDI returns a file containing a set of candidate matches. Although NDI deems some matches as perfect, multiple candidate matches may be available for other cases. Working across data from the Duke University site of the Established Populations for Epidemiologic Studies of the Elderly (EPESE), NDI, and the Social Security Death Index (SSDI), the authors found that, for this Established Populations for Epidemiologic Studies of the Elderly cohort of 1,896 cases born before 1922 and alive as of January 1, 1999, a match on Social Security number plus additional personal information (specific combinations of last name, first name, month of birth, day of birth) resulted in agreement between NDI and Social Security Death Index dates of death 94.7% of the time, while comparable agreement was found for only 12.3% of candidate decedents who did not have the required combination of information. Thus, an easy to apply algorithm facilitates accurate identification of NDI matches.

Does lack of social support lead to more ED visits for older adults?

OBJECTIVE: The goals of this study were to (1) determine whether level of social support and living situation predicted emergency department (ED) use among older adults and (2) identify correlates of ED visits according to whether the patient was admitted to the hospital. METHODS: Secondary analysis of a longitudinal, prospective study was conducted. RESULTS: In adjusted analyses, subjects who lived alone were 60% more likely to visit the ED than those who lived solely with their spouse. Neither type nor level of social support as measured by the Duke Social Support Index predicted ED use. Indicators of poor physical health (prior hospitalization, poorer self-rated health, and functional disability) were predictors of ED visits that resulted in hospitalization; however, these were not significantly associated with outpatient ED visits. DISCUSSION: Older adults who live alone are more likely to visit the ED. Additional study is needed to understand the determinants of outpatient ED visits.

The combined effect of visual impairment and cognitive impairment on disability in older people.

OBJECTIVES: To determine the risk of disability in individuals with coexisting visual and cognitive impairment and to compare the magnitude of risk associated with visual impairment, cognitive impairment, or the multimorbidity. DESIGN: Prospective cohort. SETTING: North Carolina. PARTICIPANTS: Three thousand eight hundred seventy-eight participants in the North Carolina Established Populations for the Epidemiologic Studies of the Elderly with nonmissing visual status, cognitive status, and disability status data at baseline MEASUREMENTS: Short Portable Mental Status Questionnaire (cognitive impairment defined as > or =4 errors), self reported visual acuity (visual impairment defined as inability to see well enough to recognize a friend across the street or to read newspaper print), demographic and health-related variables, disability status (activities of daily living (ADLs), instrumental activities of daily living (IADLs), mobility), death, and time to nursing home placement. RESULTS: Participants with coexisting visual and cognitive impairment were at greater risk of IADL disability (odds ratio (OR)=6.50, 95% confidence interval (CI)=4.34-9.75), mobility disability (OR=4.04, 95% CI=2.49-6.54), ADL disability (OR=2.84, 95% CI=1.87-4.32), and incident ADL disability (OR=3.66, 95%, CI=2.36-5.65). In each case, the estimated OR associated with the multimorbidity was greater than the estimated OR associated with visual or cognitive impairment alone, a pattern that was not observed for other adverse outcomes assessed. No significant interactions were observed between cognitive impairment and visual impairment as predictors of disability status. CONCLUSION: Individuals with coexisting visual impairment and cognitive impairment are at high risk of disability, with each condition contributing additively to disability risk. Further study is needed to improve functional trajectories in patients with this prevalent multimorbidity. When visual or cognitive impairment is present, efforts to maximize the other function may be beneficial.

Health service use and outcome: comparison of low charge, integrated, comprehensive services with usual health care.

We examined the effects of use of low charge, integrated and comprehensive health care services (Veterans Administration (VA) health care system) on health care service use and health-related outcomes. Data came from the 10-year (1986/87-1996/97) Duke Established Populations for Epidemiologic Studies of the Elderly, with 159 men aged 65-85 who primarily used VA health services compared with 1,100 men aged 65-85 who did not. In controlled analyses, no differences were found between the two groups on number of OTC medications used, or in speed or likelihood of entering a nursing home. However, veterans who primarily used the VA health care system reported more outpatient visits and prescription drugs, and increased likelihood of using an adjunct health care provider; entry into a hospital was quicker, and number of hospitalizations was greater. Although health status was controlled, because of eligibility requirements it remains possible that veterans were sicker. Nevertheless, no differences were found in health outcome (functional status or mortality). Readier access to better integrated health services appears to result in increased use of health services controlled by the health care provider, but not of services requiring the recipient's relocation, while functional status and mortality attained equivalence.

Effect of cancer screening and desirable health behaviors on functional status, self-rated health, health service use and mortality.

OBJECTIVES: To determine whether some health behaviors of older people (e.g., obtaining cancer screens) have a limited and others (e.g., exercise) have a broad association with population-level health status 4 to 6 years later. DESIGN: Longitudinal cohort. SETTING: North Carolina five-county urban and rural area. PARTICIPANTS: Representative community residents aged 71 and older (Duke Established Populations for Epidemiologic Studies of the Elderly; African American, n=1,256; white, n=974) who provided information on cancer screening and health behaviors. MEASUREMENTS: Demographics, health conditions, functional status, health service use, health insurance. Dependent measures were functional status and self-rated health 4 years later, hospitalization within 4 years, and death within 6 years. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, multivariable logistic regression, and Cox proportional hazards. RESULTS: In fully adjusted analyses, cancer screening had no significant protective association with functional status, self-rated health, hospitalization, or death. Smoking was a risk factor for hospitalization (odds ratio (OR)=1.48, 95% confidence interval (CI)=1.07-2.05), and death (hazard rate (HR)=1.81, 95% CI=1.47-2.23). Sufficient food reduced hospitalization (OR=0.38, 95% CI=0.15-0.94) and mortality (HR=0.70, 95% CI=0.49-1.02). Regular exercise protected against poor mobility (OR=0.56, 95% CI=0.41-0.77), and poor self-rated health (OR=0.61, 95% CI=0.45-0.82). Lower activity level increased the hazard of death (HR=1.18, 95% CI=1.03-1.36). CONCLUSION: Disease-specific screens are important at an individual level but, because of low incidence of condition and comorbidity, may not be associated with population-level health 4 to 6 years later. Practice of health behaviors with a broader focus is associated, at a population level, with better functional status and self-rated health and lower rates of hospitalization and death 4 to 6 years later.

Provider characteristics related to antidepressant use in older people.

OBJECTIVES: To determine whether the characteristics of the usual medical care providers of older antidepressant users changed between 1986 and 1997 with the introduction of selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors. DESIGN: Longitudinal study. SETTING: Five-county Piedmont area of North Carolina. PARTICIPANTS: Stratified random sample of African-American (n=2,261) and white (n=1,875) community residents aged 65 to 105. MEASUREMENTS: Sample members provided information on prescription medications, demographic and health status, and usual medical care provider (matched to North Carolina Health Professions Data Systems files to ascertain provider characteristics) in 1986/87, 1989/90, 1992/93, and 1996/97. Most (77.5%) named a provider (name unmatchable for 4.1%). Sample member characteristics were aggregated into probability (propensity) scores summarizing predisposing (demographic), enabling (medical care access), and need (health status) categories. Along with wave of study and whether a provider was named, these were entered as control variables in generalized estimating equation models that examined the association between provider race (white vs nonwhite), sex, age, location of practice, and primary versus specialist care and antidepressant use. RESULTS: The characteristics of the usual medical care providers remained stable over the decade, although prevalence of antidepressant use increased. Two provider characteristics--race and area of practice (but not the interaction between them)--were significantly associated with patients' use of antidepressants. Patients of white physicians and of physicians with urban practices were more likely to use antidepressants. CONCLUSION: Although use of antidepressants has increased over time, there has been little change in the characteristics of users' usual medical care providers.

Sociodemographic characteristics of the neighborhood and depressive symptoms in older adults: using multilevel modeling in geriatric psychiatry.

OBJECTIVE: Neighborhood sociodemographic characteristics may be important to the mental health of older adults who have decreased mobility and fewer resources. Our objective was to examine the association between neighborhood context and level of depressive symptomatology in older adults in a diverse geographic region of central North Carolina. METHODS: The sample included 2,998 adults 65 or older residing in 91 census tracts. Depressive symptoms were measured using the Center for Epidemiologic Studies-Depression scale (CES-D). Neighborhoods were characterized by five census-based characteristics: socioeconomic disadvantage, socioeconomic advantage, racial/ethnic heterogeneity, residential stability, and age structure. RESULTS: In ecologic level analyses, level of census tract socioeconomic disadvantage was associated with increased depressive symptoms. To determine whether neighborhood context was associated with depressive symptoms independently of individual characteristics, the authors used multilevel modeling. The authors examined the ability of each of five neighborhood (level 2) characteristics to predict a level 1 outcome (CES-D symptoms) controlling for the effects of individual (level 1) characteristics. Younger age, being widowed, lower income, and having some functional limitations were associated with increased depression symptoms conditional on census tract random effects. However, none of the neighborhood characteristics was significantly associated with depression symptoms, conditional on census tract random effects, either unadjusted or adjusted for individual characteristics. CONCLUSION: Any observed association between neighborhood sociodemographic characteristics and individual depressive symptoms in our sample may reflect the characteristics of the individuals who reside in the neighborhood rather than the neighborhood characteristics themselves. The use of multilevel modeling is important to separate these effects.

Patterns and predictors of smoking cessation in an elderly cohort.

OBJECTIVES: To identify subject characteristics that predict smoking cessation and describe patterns of cessation and recidivism in a cohort of elderly smokers. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. SETTING: Piedmont region, North Carolina. PARTICIPANTS: Five hundred seventy-three subjects enrolled in the North Carolina Established Populations for Epidemiologic Studies of the Elderly who responded "yes" to question 179 on the baseline survey (Do you smoke cigarettes regularly now?) and survived at least 3 years, until the next in-person follow-up (1989/90). Subjects were classified as quitters (n=100) or nonquitters (n=473) based on subsequent smoking behavior. MEASUREMENTS: Reported smoking behavior, demographic characteristics of the smokers at baseline or subsequent interviews, 7-year mortality. RESULTS: After controlling for all characteristics studied, subjects who quit smoking were more likely to be female (P=.03) and showed a trend toward greater likelihood of a recent cancer diagnosis (P=.11). Recidivism was observed in only 16% (19/119) of subjects who reported no smoking in 1989/90. The percentage of subjects who died during 7 years of follow-up was 44.0% of quitters, compared with 51.6% of nonquitters. Smoking cessation was not associated with a statistically significant decrease in risk of death after controlling for other variables (odds ratio=0.78, 95% confidence interval=0.48-1.26). CONCLUSION: Smoking cessation in this elderly cohort was associated with different subject characteristics from those that predict successful cessation in younger populations, suggesting that older smokers may have unique reasons to stop smoking. Further study is needed to assess potential motives and benefits associated with smoking cessation at an advanced age.

APOE epsilon4 as a predictor of subjective quality of life in a biracial older person community sample.

UNLABELLED: The epsilon4 allele of apolipoprotein E (APOE) has been associated with health-related outcomes that may adversely affect quality of life (QOL) in older adults. In the absence of published information, we sought to determine whether the epsilon4 allele was associated with subjective QOL across 5 parameters in a community sample of older adults. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. SETTING: Community-based sample of older adults in North Carolina (Duke site of the Established Populations for Epidemiologic Studies of the Elderly [Duke EPESE]). PARTICIPANTS: Self-responding genotyped sample members (n = 1,880) of whom 1,254 provided longitudinal data. MEASUREMENTS: APOE genotype and five newly constructed, reliable, and valid measures of subjective QOL derived from the Duke EPESE questionnaire. The 5 parameters measured were social, economic, mental and physical health, and functional status. Control variables included age, gender, race (African American or White), education and urban/rural residence. RESULTS: Among those with good baseline QOL, there was no significant association between the epsilon4 allele and any of the parameters of subjective QOL in longitudinal analyses. In controlled longitudinal analysis, older age women predicted poorer functional status; being African American, and reporting lower education predicted poorer subjective economic well-being; and being African American predicted better self-assessed mental health. CONCLUSIONS: This study is among the first to explore the association of the epsilon4 allele with overall QOL. Considered from a public health perspective, these findings challenge the uncritical assumption that the presence of this susceptibility gene in the population implies an excess burden of poor QOL. The findings do not contradict the previous association of epsilon4 with Alzheimer's disease (AD) and other conditions. Such conditions continue to merit full attention.

Mortality and apolipoprotein E in African-American, and White elders: an attempted replication.

We have tried, with only partial success, to confirm findings in a recently reported study in this journal on the relationship of APOE genotype to mortality in community representative Hispanics (n = 659), Whites (n = 272), and African-Americans (n = 450), aged 65 and over, living in Northern Manhattan, New York. That study found that using proportional hazards models adjusted for sex and lipid levels, Hispanics and Whites with the E2/E3 genotype, but not African-Americans, had the lowest mortality risk. Those under age 75 had risks comparable to those over age 75, suggesting minimal survivor bias. Nearly 50% of the mortality risk associated with the APOE genotype appeared to act through heart disease, diabetes, and stroke. The current study of African-Americans (n = 1,083) and Whites (n = 915) aged 71 and over living in the more rural Southeastern US, found no protective effect of the E2/E3 genotype for either African-Americans or Whites. Among younger Whites (age 71-75), point estimates suggested that the E2/E3 genotype might be protective, but at a nonsignificant level; self-reported African-American race, but not genotype, was a risk factor for mortality in this age group. Neither lipid level nor health condition attenuated the effect of APOE genotype. Differences in findings may reflect issues of sampling, age, the relative distribution of the APOE alleles, or some other factor. Until such time as studies use truly representative samples and include younger ages, findings in this area must be treated with caution.

The effect of comorbid illness on receipt of cancer screening by older people.

OBJECTIVES: To identify associations between the type and number of diagnoses and receipt of screening for breast, cervical, and colorectal cancer by older people. DESIGN: Sixth annual follow-up of a community-based survey with 4,162 participants aged 65 and older at baseline in 1986. SETTING: Piedmont area of North Carolina. PARTICIPANTS: Two thousand two hundred twenty-five subjects with a mean age of 79 who responded in 1992. MEASUREMENTS: Self-reported receipt of clinical breast examination, mammography, Papanicolaou (Pap) smear, and fecal occult blood testing (FOBT) within the 2 years before the survey. RESULTS: Hip fracture was associated with lower rates of mammography (odds ratio (OR) = 0.53, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.32-0.87) and cognitive impairment with lower rates of FOBT (OR = 0.71, 95% CI = 0.54-0.94). Hypertension was associated with higher rates of breast examination (OR = 1.56, 95% CI = 1.18-2.07), Pap smear (OR = 1.41, 95% CI = 1.09-1.83), and FOBT (OR = 1.37, 95% CI = 1.12-1.66) and a trend toward increasing rates of mammography (OR = 1.28, 95% CI = 0.98-1.69). The presence of three or more comorbid conditions was associated with an increased rate of mammography (OR = 1.35, 95% CI = 1.06-1.71), breast examination (OR = 1.46, 95% CI = 1.12-1.89), and Pap smear (OR = 1.31, 95% CI = 1.04-1.65). CONCLUSIONS: With few exceptions, the presence of comorbid conditions is not associated with a decreased rate of receipt of screening. In fact, hypertension and the presence of a higher number of comorbid conditions are associated with a higher rate of receipt of cancer screening. This finding may be due to an increase in the frequency of office visits increasing the opportunity for cancer screening.

Apolipoprotein E epsilon4 and risk of mortality in African American and white older community residents.

PURPOSE: The goal of this study was to determine whether the epsilon4 allele of apolipoprotein E is predictive of mortality in a community-based sample. DESIGN AND METHODS: Of the stratified random household sample of 4,162 participants age 65 years and older enrolled in the Duke site of the Established Populations for Epidemiologic Studies of the Elderly, those included in the present study were the 1,998 who were genotyped for apolipoprotein E (alleles epsilon2, epsilon3, and epsilon4) six years after baseline, and for whom survival status eight years later was known by search of the National Death Index. Information on demographic characteristics, physical and mental health status, functional status, and health services use was determined by structured questionnaires administered in person in the home. RESULTS: The epsilon4 allele did not predict mortality for the group as a whole, or for those who were cognitively impaired. It did predict mortality for those who reported having had a heart attack or stroke. IMPLICATIONS: The apolipoprotein epsilon4 allele-although a risk factor for Alzheimer's disease, heart disease, and stroke-was only found to be a risk factor for mortality for those community residents who had had a heart attack or stroke. Otherwise, for this community-based sample, 71 years of age and older, it did not predict time to death and was not a risk factor for mortality.