A simulation study to assess the sensitivity of a forest health monitoring network to outbreaks of defoliating insects.

The sensitivity of the United States Forest Health Monitoring network to outbreaks of defoliating insects was examined by means of a simulation study. A model constructed specifically for the study was used to generate a wide variety of defoliation patterns in forested landscapes. Forest configuration was that of Minnesota, USA, as expressed by the GAP land cover classification. Combinations of model parameters were based on a Latin Hypercube sample. The relationship between the average number of plots defoliated and outbreak characteristics was then examined via multiple regression. Both theoretical and model results pointed to a strong, linear relationship between the average number of plots defoliated and outbreak size. Model results provided additional insight, suggesting a significant relationship between the average number of plots defoliated and other outbreak characteristics after outbreak size was taken into account.

Process-based models for forest ecosystem management: current state of the art and challenges for practical implementation.

Recent progress toward the application of process-based models in forestmanagement includes the development of evaluation and parameter estimation methods suitable for models with causal structure, and the accumulation of data that can be used in model evaluation. The current state of the art of process modeling is discussed in the context of forest ecosystem management. We argue that the carbon balance approach is readily applicable for projecting forest yield and productivity, and review several carbon balance models for estimating stand productivity and individual tree growth and competition. We propose that to develop operational models, it is necessary to accept that all models may have both empirical and causal components at the system level. We present examples of hybrid carbon balance models and consider issues that currently require incorporation of empirical information at the system level. We review model calibration and validation methods that take account of the hybrid character of models. The operational implementation of process-based models to practical forest management is discussed. Methods of decision-making in forest management are gradually moving toward a more general, analytical approach, and it seems likely that models that include some process-oriented components will soon be used in forestry enterprises. This development is likely to run parallel with the further development of ecophysiologically based models.