A neotropical perspective on the uniqueness of the Holocene among interglacials.

Understanding how tropical systems have responded to large-scale climate change, such as glacial-interglacial oscillations, and how human impacts have altered those responses is key to current and future ecology. A sedimentary record recovered from Lake Junín, in the Peruvian Andes (4085 m elevation) spans the last 670,000 years and represents the longest continuous and empirically-dated record of tropical vegetation change to date. Spanning seven glacial-interglacial oscillations, fossil pollen and charcoal recovered from the core showed the general dominance of grasslands, although during the warmest times some Andean forest trees grew above their modern limits near the lake. Fire was very rare until the last 12,000 years, when humans were in the landscape. Here we show that, due to human activity, our present interglacial, the Holocene, has a distinctive vegetation composition and ecological trajectory compared with six previous interglacials. Our data reinforce the view that modern vegetation assemblages of high Andean grasslands and the presence of a defined tree line are aspects of a human-modified landscape.

700,000 years of tropical Andean glaciation.

Our understanding of the climatic teleconnections that drove ice-age cycles has been limited by a paucity of well-dated tropical records of glaciation that span several glacial-interglacial intervals. Glacial deposits offer discrete snapshots of glacier extent but cannot provide the continuous records required for detailed interhemispheric comparisons. By contrast, lakes located within glaciated catchments can provide continuous archives of upstream glacial activity, but few such records extend beyond the last glacial cycle. Here a piston core from Lake Junín in the uppermost Amazon basin provides the first, to our knowledge, continuous, independently dated archive of tropical glaciation spanning 700,000 years. We find that tropical glaciers tracked changes in global ice volume and followed a clear approximately 100,000-year periodicity. An enhancement in the extent of tropical Andean glaciers relative to global ice volume occurred between 200,000 and 400,000 years ago, during sustained intervals of regionally elevated hydrologic balance that modified the regular approximately 23,000-year pacing of monsoon-driven precipitation. Millennial-scale variations in the extent of tropical Andean glaciers during the last glacial cycle were driven by variations in regional monsoon strength that were linked to temperature perturbations in Greenland ice cores1; these interhemispheric connections may have existed during previous glacial cycles.

A palaeoecological perspective on the transformation of the tropical Andes by early human activity.

Palaeoecological records suggest that humans have been in the Andes since at least 14 000 years ago. Early human impacts on Andean ecosystems included an increase in fire activity and the extinction of the Pleistocene megafauna. These changes in Andean ecosystems coincided with rapid climate change as species were migrating upslope in response to deglacial warming. Microrefugia probably played a vital role in the speed and genetic composition of that migration. The period from ca 14 500 to 12 500 years ago was when novel combinations of plant species appeared to form no-analogue assemblages in the Andes. By 12 000 years ago most areas in what are today the Andean grasslands were being burned and modified by human activity. As the vegetation of these highland settings has been modified by human activity for the entirety of the Holocene, they should be regarded as long-term manufactutred landscapes. The sharp tree lines separating Andean forests from grasslands that we see today were probably also created by repeated burning and owe their position more to human-induced fire than climatic constraints. In areas that were readly penetrated by humans on the forested slopes of the Andes, substantial modification and settlement had occurred by the mid-Holocene. In hard-to-reach areas, however, the amount of human modification may always have been minimal, and these slopes can be considered as being close to natural in their vegetation. This article is part of the theme issue 'Tropical forests in the deep human past'.

Mathematically aggregating experts' predictions of possible futures.

Structured protocols offer a transparent and systematic way to elicit and combine/aggregate, probabilistic predictions from multiple experts. These judgements can be aggregated behaviourally or mathematically to derive a final group prediction. Mathematical rules (e.g., weighted linear combinations of judgments) provide an objective approach to aggregation. The quality of this aggregation can be defined in terms of accuracy, calibration and informativeness. These measures can be used to compare different aggregation approaches and help decide on which aggregation produces the "best" final prediction. When experts' performance can be scored on similar questions ahead of time, these scores can be translated into performance-based weights, and a performance-based weighted aggregation can then be used. When this is not possible though, several other aggregation methods, informed by measurable proxies for good performance, can be formulated and compared. Here, we develop a suite of aggregation methods, informed by previous experience and the available literature. We differentially weight our experts' estimates by measures of reasoning, engagement, openness to changing their mind, informativeness, prior knowledge, and extremity, asymmetry or granularity of estimates. Next, we investigate the relative performance of these aggregation methods using three datasets. The main goal of this research is to explore how measures of knowledge and behaviour of individuals can be leveraged to produce a better performing combined group judgment. Although the accuracy, calibration, and informativeness of the majority of methods are very similar, a couple of the aggregation methods consistently distinguish themselves as among the best or worst. Moreover, the majority of methods outperform the usual benchmarks provided by the simple average or the median of estimates.

Widespread reforestation before European influence on Amazonia.

An estimated 90 to 95% of Indigenous people in Amazonia died after European contact. This population collapse is postulated to have caused decreases in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations at around 1610 CE, as a result of a wave of land abandonment in the wake of disease, slavery, and warfare, whereby the attendant reversion to forest substantially increased terrestrial carbon sequestration. On the basis of 39 Amazonian fossil pollen records, we show that there was no synchronous reforestation event associated with such an atmospheric carbon dioxide response after European arrival in Amazonia. Instead, we find that, at most sites, land abandonment and forest regrowth began about 300 to 600 years before European arrival. Pre-European pandemics, social strife, or environmental change may have contributed to these early site abandonments and ecological shifts.

Neogene precipitation, vegetation, and elevation history of the Central Andean Plateau.

Andean uplift played a fundamental role in shaping South American climate and species distribution, but the relationship between the rise of the Andes, plant composition, and local climatic evolution is poorly known. We investigated the fossil record (pollen, leaves, and wood) from the Neogene of the Central Andean Plateau and documented the earliest evidence of a puna-like ecosystem in the Pliocene and a montane ecosystem without modern analogs in the Miocene. In contrast to regional climate model simulations, our climate inferences based on fossil data suggest wetter than modern precipitation conditions during the Pliocene, when the area was near modern elevations, and even wetter conditions during the Miocene, when the cordillera was around ~1700 meters above sea level. Our empirical data highlight the importance of the plant fossil record in studying past, present, and future climates and underscore the dynamic nature of high elevation ecosystems.

Short-term outcome and complications of TPLO using anatomically contoured locking compression plates in small/medium-breed dogs with "excessive" tibial plateau angle.

OBJECTIVES: To report short-term radiographic and clinical outcome and complications following tibial plateau levelling osteotomy for the treatment of cranial cruciate ligament insufficiency in dogs less than 18·1 kg with tibial plateau angle greater than 35° using anatomically contoured six-hole locking compression plates. METHODS: Retrospective data were collected on: preoperative, postoperative and follow-up tibial plateau angles, plateau segment rotation, tibial tuberosity width and length of the cranial aspect of tibial tuberosity segment from the patellar tendon insertion and rotation of the tibial plateau below the level of the insertion of the patellar ligament. RESULTS: In 26 small dogs (29 stifles in total), mean preoperative, postoperative and follow-up tibial plateau angles were 38·2°, 4·8°, and 4·4°, respectively. Documented postoperative complications were limited to patellar tendinopathy in a single case (3·4%) and tibial tuberosity or fibula fracture were not observed. CLINICAL SIGNIFICANCE: Short-term radiographic and clinical outcome of tibial plateau levelling osteotomy stabilised with anatomically contoured six-hole locking compression plates for the treatment of small dogs with large tibial plateau angle suggests a very low risk of complications. Rotation beyond the "safe point" is necessary to perform full rotation in some cases, but does not appear to incur an increased risk of tibial tuberosity fracture.

Retrospective Study on Fatal Melioidosis in Captive Zoo Animals in Thailand.

Melioidosis is caused by Burkholderia pseudomallei and is an important zoonotic infectious disease causing high mortality from fulminant septicaemia in humans and a wide variety of animal species. The incidence of fatal melioidosis in zoo animals has been significant in many Thai zoos. A total number of 32 cases were evaluated throughout the Thai zoo animal populations. The highest prevalence of disease has been reported from the north-eastern region followed by the zoos in the southern part of the country, approximately 47% and 38%, respectively, while the other zoos reported sporadic infections. Herbivores and non-human primates were the most commonly affected animals with incidences of 59% and 28%, respectively. This appears to be a seasonal correlation with the highest incidence of melioidosis in zoo animals reported in the rainy season (44%) or subdivided monthly in June (19%) followed by September and November (16% and 12%, respectively). The route of infection and the incubation period still remain unclear. This retrospective study examined the clinical presentation in various zoo species, pathological findings and epidemiological data as well as conducting an in depth literature review.

[Early clinical changes and emotional burnout of police officers].

The authors evaluated adaptational potential of cardiovascular system in 110 police officers considered as apparently healthy and fit for service, working in psychoemotional stress with exertion of body adaptational functions and health disorders development. Adaptational potential of cardiovascular system served as an indicator of adaptive body reactions. Prenosologic states diagnosis determined risks of main general pathologic syndromes in individuals with satisfactory and disordered adaptation. Leading symptoms of emotional burnout were assessed and appeared to depict depletion of psychoemotional processes in occupational activity of individuals with various adaptation states. The study results enable to connect adaptation disorder with risk of main general pathologic syndromes and occurrence of emotional burnout symptoms. The prenosologic states appearing could be considered as an adaptation way towards specific conditions of occupational activity of police officers.

Management of feline distal tibial fractures using a hybrid external skeletal fixator.

OBJECTIVE: To document the results of management of feline distal tibial fractures with circular-linear hybrid external skeletal fixators. METHODS: Retrospective examination of case records and radiographs of cats with distal tibial fractures managed with hybrid external skeletal fixators. Signalment, pre-operative fracture conformation, post-operative fracture reduction, implant complications, time to tibial and fibular fracture healing and time to hybrid external skeletal fixators removal were analysed. RESULTS: Case records of eight cats were reviewed and included three closed fractures and five type 1 open fractures. Post-operative fracture reduction was considered appropriate in all cases. Healing of five tibial fractures was complete and hybrid external skeletal fixators were removed within a mean of 13 weeks. Healing of the fibular fracture was complete within a mean of 12 · 1 weeks. Three tibial fractures demonstrated non-union and were revised after a mean duration of 24 weeks. All three non-union fractures were open on presentation. CLINICAL SIGNIFICANCE: Feline distal tibial fractures may be managed with hybrid external skeletal fixators, however, non-union still occurs. In this study type I open feline distal tibial fractures appeared more likely to develop non-union.

The evolution of physical and technical performance parameters in the English Premier League.

This study examined the evolution of physical and technical soccer performance across a 7-season period in the English Premier League. Match performance observations (n=14 700) were analysed for emergent trends. Total distance covered during a match was ~2% lower in 2006-07 compared to 2012-13. Across 7 seasons, high-intensity running distance and actions increased by ~30% (890±299 vs. 1 151±337 m, p<0.001; ES: 0.82) and ~50% (118±36 vs. 176±46, p<0.001; ES: 1.41), respectively. Sprint distance and number of sprints increased by ~35% (232±114 vs. 350±139 m, p<0.001; ES: 0.93) and ~85% (31±14 vs. 57±20, p<0.001; ES: 1.46), respectively. Mean sprint distance was shorter in 2012-13 compared to 2006-07 (5.9±0.8 vs. 6.9±1.3 m, p<0.001; ES: 0.91), with the proportion of explosive sprints increasing (34±11 vs. 47±9%, p<0.001; ES: 1.31). Players performed more passes (35±17 vs. 25±13, p<0.001; ES: 0.66) and successful passes (83±10% vs. 76±13%, p<0.001; ES: 0.60) in 2012-13 compared to 2006-07. Whereas the number of short and medium passes increased across time (p<0.001; ES>0.6), the number of long passes varied little (p<0.001; ES: 0.11). This data demonstrates evolution of physical and technical parameters in the English Premier League, and could be used to aid talent identification, training and conditioning preparation.

Predicting pre-Columbian anthropogenic soils in Amazonia.

The extent and intensity of pre-Columbian impacts on lowland Amazonia have remained uncertain and controversial. Various indicators can be used to gauge the impact of pre-Columbian societies, but the formation of nutrient-enriched terra preta soils has been widely accepted as an indication of long-term settlement and site fidelity. Using known and newly discovered terra preta sites and maximum entropy algorithms (Maxent), we determined the influence of regional environmental conditions on the likelihood that terra pretas would have been formed at any given location in lowland Amazonia. Terra pretas were most frequently found in central and eastern Amazonia along the lower courses of the major Amazonian rivers. Terrain, hydrologic and soil characteristics were more important predictors of terra preta distributions than climatic conditions. Our modelling efforts indicated that terra pretas are likely to be found throughout ca 154 063 km(2) or 3.2% of the forest. We also predict that terra preta formation was limited in most of western Amazonia. Model results suggested that the distribution of terra preta was highly predictable based on environmental parameters. We provided targets for future archaeological surveys under the vast forest canopy and also highlighted how few of the long-term forest inventory sites in Amazonia are able to capture the effects of historical disturbance.

Accuracy evaluation of a two-wire technique for osteotomy positioning in the tibial plateau levelling procedure.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate a tibial plateau levelling osteotomy (TPLO) saw blade positioning technique and to retrospectively evaluate the accuracy of the osteotomy position. METHOD: Preoperative and postoperative radiographs of 72 cases that had a TPLO surgery using a two-wire technique were reviewed. Three measurements (A1, B1, C1) were obtained in preoperative planning using a computer template system (Orthoview Vet) which mapped the intended osteotomy position. The postoperative radiographs were analysed to determine the variability of these three measurements (A2, B2, C2) and therefore the accuracy of the osteotomy. RESULTS: On average the least variable measurement was B2 (5%) followed by C2 (7%) and then A2 (13%). The maximum mean difference between the intended position and achieved position was 1.5 mm. CLINICAL SIGNIFICANCE: Despite there being a significant difference between the intended and the actual position of the osteotomy, the variation between the intended and actual tibial tuberosity width was small (5%). None of the cases suffered a tibial tuberosity fracture, which also supports the clinical value of this technique. Care must be taken to avoid inadvertent cutting of the Kirschner guide wires.

Effects of the mu-opioid receptor antagonist GSK1521498 on hedonic and consummatory eating behaviour: a proof of mechanism study in binge-eating obese subjects.

The opioid system is implicated in the hedonic and motivational processing of food, and in binge eating, a behaviour strongly linked to obesity. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effects of 4 weeks of treatment with the mu-opioid receptor antagonist GSK1521498 on eating behaviour in binge-eating obese subjects. Adults with body mass index ≥ 30 kg m(-2) and binge eating scale scores ≥ 19 received 1-week single-blind placebo run-in, and were then randomized to 28 days with either 2 mg day(-1) GSK1521498, 5 mg day(-1) GSK1521498 or placebo (N=21 per arm) in a double-blind parallel group design. The outcome measures were body weight, fat mass, hedonic and consummatory eating behaviour during inpatient food challenges, safety and pharmacokinetics. The primary analysis was the comparison of change scores in the higher-dose treatment group versus placebo using analysis of covariance at each relevant time point. GSK1521498 (2 mg and 5 mg) was not different from placebo in its effects on weight, fat mass and binge eating scores. However, compared with placebo, GSK1521498 5 mg day(-1) caused a significant reduction in hedonic responses to sweetened dairy products and reduced calorific intake, particularly of high-fat foods during ad libitum buffet meals, with some of these effects correlating with systemic exposure of GSK1521498. There were no significant effects of GSK1521498 2 mg day(-1) on eating behaviour, indicating dose dependency of pharmacodynamics. GSK1521498 was generally well tolerated and no previously unidentified safety signals were detected. The potential for these findings to translate into clinically significant effects in the context of binge eating and weight regain prevention requires further investigation.

Defecation 1: Testing a hypothesis for pelvic striated muscle action to open the anorectum.

BACKGROUND: We conducted an observational study to assess the hypothesis that the pelvic muscles actively open the anorectal lumen during defecation. METHODS: Three groups of female patients were evaluated with video imaging studies of defecation using a grid or bony reference points. Eight patients with idiopathic fecal incontinence had video myogram defecography; eight with obstructive defecation had magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) defecating proctograms; and four normal patients had video X-ray or MRI defecating proctogram studies. RESULTS: In all three groups, the anorectum was stretched bidirectionally by three directional muscle force vectors acting on the walls of the rectum, effectively doubling the diameter of the rectum during defecation. The anterior rectal wall was pulled forwards, and the posterior wall backwards and downwards opening the anorectal angle, associated with angulation of the anterior tip of the levator plate (LP). These observations are consistent with a staged relaxation of some parts of the pelvic floor during defecation, and contraction of others. First, the puborectalis muscle relaxes. Puborectalis muscle relaxation frees the posterior rectal wall so that it can be stretched and opened by contraction of the LP and conjoint longitudinal muscle of the anus. Second, contraction of the pubococcygeus muscle pulls forward the anterior rectal wall, further increasing the diameter of the rectum. Third, when the bolus has entered the rectum, the external anal sphincter relaxes, and the rectum contracts to expel the fecal bolus. CONCLUSIONS: Our results are consistent with the hypothesis that pelvic striated muscle actively opens the rectal lumen, thereby reducing internal anorectal resistance to expulsion of feces. Controlled studies of electromyographic activity would be useful to further test this hypothesis.

Defecation 2: Internal anorectal resistance is a critical factor in defecatory disorders.

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to test our hypothesis that the reason why imaging is of little assistance in diagnosing "constipation" causes may be related to the high sensitivity of internal anorectal flow resistance in defecation to small changes in geometry. We applied a mathematical model to describe the effects on flow mechanics of observed changes in the shape of the rectum and anus during defecation. METHODS: Three groups of patients were studied with video proctograms. Group 1 comprised 4 patients with normal defecation studied with video proctography or magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). Group 2 comprised 8 patients with fecal incontinence, studied by video X-ray electromyography. Group 3 comprised 8 patients with constipation evaluated by video MRI. RESULTS: Three muscle vectors open the anorectal angle prior to defecation, causing the anorectal luminal diameter to increase to approximately twice its resting size. These vectors are forwards (anterior wall), backwards and downwards (posterior wall). Resistance to passage of a fecal bolus through the anorectum is determined by viscous friction against the anorectal wall and by the energy required to deform the bolus as it flows. The observed changes in anorectal geometry serve to reduce both the viscous friction in the anus and the deformation of the bolus, which reduces the force required to facilitate its passage through the anus. For example, if the effective diameter of the anus is doubled during defecation, the frictional resistance is reduced by a factor of 8. CONCLUSIONS: The sensitivity of flow resistance to geometry explains why MRI or computed tomography (CT) scans taken during defecation are not often helpful in diagnosing causation. Small changes in geometry can have a disproportionate affect on flow resistance. Combining accurate directional measurements during dynamic MRI or CT scans taken during defecation with observations of bolus deformation, and if possible, simultaneous anorectal manometry, may provide clinically helpful insights on patients with anorectal evacuation disorders.