Overcoming Data Gaps in Life Course Epidemiology by Matching Across Cohorts.

Life course epidemiology is hampered by the absence of large studies with exposures and outcomes measured at different life stages in the same individuals. We describe when the effect of an exposure ( A ) on an outcome ( Y ) in a target population is identifiable in a combined ("synthetic") cohort created by pooling an early-life cohort including measures of A with a late-life cohort including measures of Y . We enumerate causal assumptions needed for unbiased effect estimation in the synthetic cohort and illustrate by simulating target populations under four causal models. From each target population, we randomly sampled early- and late-life cohorts and created a synthetic cohort by matching individuals from the two cohorts based on mediators and confounders. We estimated the effect of A on Y in the synthetic cohort, varying matching variables, the match ratio, and the strength of association between matching variables and A . Finally, we compared bias in the synthetic cohort estimates when matching variables did not d-separate A and Y to the bias expected in the original cohort. When the set of matching variables includes all variables d-connecting exposure and outcome (i.e., variables blocking all backdoor and front-door pathways), the synthetic cohort yields unbiased effect estimates. Even when matching variables did not fully account for confounders, the synthetic cohort estimate was sometimes less biased than comparable estimates in the original cohort. Methods based on merging cohorts may hasten the evaluation of early- and mid-life determinants of late-life health but rely on available measures of both confounders and mediators.

Visual Impairment, Eye Conditions, and Diagnoses of Neurodegeneration and Dementia.

Importance: Vision and eye conditions are associated with increased risk for Alzheimer disease and related dementias (ADRDs), but the nature of the association and the underlying biological pathways remain unclear. If causal, vision would be an important modifiable risk factor with viable population-level interventions. Objective: To evaluate potentially causal associations between visual acuity, eye conditions (specifically cataracts and myopia), neuroimaging outcomes, and ADRDs. Design, Setting, and Participants: A cohort and 2-sample bidirectional mendelian randomization (MR) study was conducted using UK Biobank participants and summary statistics from previously published genome-wide association studies on cataract, myopia, and AD. The participants included in the analysis were aged 55 to 70 years without dementia at baseline (calendar years 2006 to 2010), underwent genotyping, and reported on eye conditions; a subset completed visual acuity examinations (n = 69 852-71 429) or brain imaging (n = 36 591-36 855). Data were analyzed from August 15, 2022, through November 28, 2023. Exposure: Self-reported cataracts, visual acuity, and myopia measured by refraction error. Main Outcomes and Measures: ADRD, AD, and vascular dementia were identified from electronic medical records. Total and regional brain volumes were determined using magnetic resonance imaging. Results: The sample included 304 953 participants (mean [SD] age, 62.1 (4.1) years; 163 825 women [53.72%]); 14 295 (4.69%) had cataracts and 2754 (3.86%) had worse than 20/40 vision. Cataracts (hazard ratio [HR], 1.18; 95% CI, 1.07-1.29) and myopia (HR, 1.35; 95% CI, 1.06-1.70) were associated with a higher hazard of ADRD. In MR analyses to estimate potential causal effects, cataracts were associated with increased risk of vascular dementia (inverse variance-weighted odds ratio [OR], 1.92; 95% CI, 1.26-2.92) but were not associated with increased dementia (OR, 1.21; 95% CI, 0.98-1.50). There were no associations between myopia and dementia. In MR for potential reverse causality, AD was not associated with cataracts (inverse variance-weighted OR, 0.99; 95% CI, 0.96-1.01). Genetic risk for cataracts was associated with smaller total brain (ß = -597.43 mm3; 95% CI, -1077.87 to -117.00 mm3) and gray matter (ß = -375.17 mm3; 95% CI, -680.10 to -70.24 mm3) volumes, but not other brain regions. Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort and MR study of UK Biobank participants, cataracts were associated with increased risk of dementia, especially vascular dementia, and reduced total brain volumes. These findings lend further support to the hypothesis that cataract extraction may reduce the risk for dementia.

Representativeness of Participants in the ACCORD Trial Compared to Middle-aged and Older Adults Living with Diabetes in the United States.

BACKGROUND: We evaluated whether participants in the landmark Action to Control Cardiovascular Risk in Diabetes (ACCORD) trial represent US adults aged ≥40 with diabetes. METHODS: Using the nationally representative 2017-2020 prepandemic National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey data, we made operational definitions of ACCORD eligibility criteria. We calculated the percentage of individuals aged ≥40 with diabetes and HbA1c ≥ 6.0% or ≥ 7.5% who met operational ACCORD eligibility criteria. RESULTS: Applying survey sampling weights to 715 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey participants aged ≥40 with diabetes and HbA1c ≥ 6.0% (representing 29,717,406 individuals), 12% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 8%, 18%) met the operational ACCORD eligibility criteria. Restricting to HbA1c ≥ 7.5%, 39% (95% CI = 28%, 51%) of respondents met the operational ACCORD eligibility criteria. CONCLUSIONS: ACCORD represented a minority of US middle-aged and older adults with diabetes. Given the differential risk profile between ACCORD participants and the general population with diabetes, extrapolating the trial findings may not be appropriate.

Comparison of approaches to control for intracranial volume in research on the association of brain volumes with cognitive outcomes.

Most neuroimaging studies linking regional brain volumes with cognition correct for total intracranial volume (ICV), but methods used for this correction differ across studies. It is unknown whether different ICV correction methods yield consistent results. Using a brain-wide association approach in the MRI substudy of UK Biobank (N = 41,964; mean age = 64.5 years), we used regression models to estimate the associations of 58 regional brain volumetric measures with eight cognitive outcomes, comparing no correction and four ICV correction approaches. Approaches evaluated included: no correction; dividing regional volumes by ICV (proportional approach); including ICV as a covariate in the regression (adjustment approach); and regressing the regional volumes against ICV in different normative samples and using calculated residuals to determine associations (residual approach). We used Spearman-rank correlations and two consistency measures to quantify the extent to which associations were inconsistent across ICV correction approaches for each possible brain region and cognitive outcome pair across 2320 regression models. When the association between brain volume and cognitive performance was close to null, all approaches produced similar estimates close to the null. When associations between a regional volume and cognitive test were not null, the adjustment and residual approaches typically produced similar estimates, but these estimates were inconsistent with results from the crude and proportional approaches. For example, when using the crude approach, an increase of 0.114 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.103-0.125) in fluid intelligence was associated with each unit increase in hippocampal volume. However, when using the adjustment approach, the increase was 0.055 (95% CI: 0.043-0.068), while the proportional approach showed a decrease of -0.025 (95% CI: -0.035 to -0.014). Different commonly used methods to correct for ICV yielded inconsistent results. The proportional method diverges notably from other methods and results were sometimes biologically implausible. A simple regression adjustment for ICV produced biologically plausible associations.

Genetic risk score for Alzheimer's disease predicts brain volume differences in mid and late life in UK biobank participants.

INTRODUCTION: We estimated the ages when associations between Alzheimer's disease (AD) genes and brain volumes begin among middle-aged and older adults. METHODS: Among 45,616 dementia-free participants aged 45-80, linear regressions tested whether genetic risk score for AD (AD-GRS) had age-dependent associations with 38 regional brain magnetic resonance imaging volumes. Models were adjusted for sex, assessment center, genetic ancestry, and intracranial volume. RESULTS: AD-GRS modified the estimated effect of age (per decade) on the amygdala (-0.41 mm3 [-0.42, -0.40]); hippocampus (-0.45 mm3 [-0.45, -0.44]), nucleus accumbens (-0.55 mm3 [-0.56, -0.54]), thalamus (-0.38 mm3 [-0.39, -0.37]), and medial orbitofrontal cortex (-0.23 mm3 [-0.24, -0.22]). Trends began by age 45 for the nucleus accumbens and thalamus, 48 for the hippocampus, 51 for the amygdala, and 53 for the medial orbitofrontal cortex. An AD-GRS excluding apolipoprotein E (APOE) was additionally associated with entorhinal and middle temporal cortices. DISCUSSION: APOE and other genes that increase AD risk predict lower hippocampal and other brain volumes by middle age.

Associations of Everyday and Lifetime Experiences of Discrimination With Willingness to Undergo Alzheimer Disease Predictive Testing.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Rapid developments in Alzheimer disease (AD) biomarker research suggest that predictive testing may become widely available. To ensure equal access to AD predictive testing, it is important to understand factors that affect testing interest. Discrimination may influence attitudes toward AD testing, particularly among racially and ethnically minoritized populations, because of structural racism in health care systems. This study examined whether everyday or lifetime discrimination experiences shape interest in AD predictive testing. METHODS: In the 2010 and 2012 biennial Health and Retirement Study waves, respondents were randomly selected to complete questions on interest in receiving free testing that could determine whether they would develop AD in the future. The exposures were everyday discrimination (6 items) and lifetime discrimination (7 items); both were transformed into a binary variable. Logistic regression models predicting interest in AD testing were controlled for deciles of propensity scores for each discrimination measure. Odds ratios were re-expressed as risk differences (RDs). RESULTS: Our analytic sample included 1,499 respondents. The mean age was 67 (SD = 10.2) years, 57.4% were women, 65.7% were White, and 80% endorsed interest in AD predictive testing. Most of the participants (54.7%) experienced everyday discrimination in at least one domain; 24.1% experienced major lifetime discrimination in at least one domain. Those interested in predictive testing were younger (66 vs 70 years) and more likely to be Black (20% vs 15%) or Latinx (14% vs 8%) than participants uninterested in testing. The probability of wanting an AD test was not associated with discrimination for Black (RD everyday discrimination = -0.026; 95% CI [-0.081 to 0.029]; RD lifetime discrimination = -0.012; 95% CI [-0.085 to 0.063]) or Latinx (RD everyday discrimination = -0.023, 95% CI [-0.082 to 0.039]; RD lifetime discrimination = -0.011; 95% CI [-0.087 to 0.064]) participants. DISCUSSION: Despite historical and contemporary experiences of discrimination, Black and Latinx individuals express interest in AD testing. However, Black and Latinx individuals remain underrepresented in AD research, including research on AD testing. Interest in personalized information about dementia risk may be a pathway to enhance their inclusion in research and clinical trials.

Association of cancer history with structural brain aging markers of Alzheimer's disease and related dementias risk.

INTRODUCTION: Cancer survivors are less likely than comparably aged individuals without a cancer history to develop Alzheimer's disease and related dementias (ADRD). METHODS: In the UK Biobank, we investigated associations between cancer history and five structural magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) markers for ADRD risk, using linear mixed-effects models to assess differences in mean values and quantile regression to examine whether associations varied across the distribution of MRI markers. RESULTS: Cancer history was associated with smaller mean hippocampal volume (b = -19 mm3 , 95% CI = -36, -1) and lower mean cortical thickness in the Alzheimer's disease signature region (b = -0.004 mm, 95% CI = -0.007, -0.000). Quantile regressions indicated individuals most vulnerable to ADRD were more affected by cancer history. DISCUSSION: Some brain MRI markers associated with ADRD risk were elevated in adults with a history of cancer. The magnitude of the adverse associations varied across quantiles of neuroimaging markers, and the pattern suggests possible harmful associations for individuals already at high ADRD risk. HIGHLIGHTS: We found no evidence of an inverse association between cancer history and ADRD-related neurodegeneration. Cancer history was associated with smaller mean hippocampal volume and lower mean cortical thickness in the Alzheimer's disease signature region. Quantile regressions indicated individuals most vulnerable to ADRD were more affected by cancer history.

Association between cancer and dementia risk in the UK Biobank: evidence of diagnostic bias.

Epidemiological studies have identified an inverse association between cancer and dementia. Underlying methodological biases have been postulated, yet no studies have systematically investigated the potential for each source of bias within a single dataset. We used the UK Biobank to compare estimates for the cancer-dementia association using different analytical specifications designed to sequentially address multiple sources of bias, including competing risk of death, selective survival, confounding bias, and diagnostic bias. We included 140,959 UK Biobank participants aged ≥ 55 without dementia before enrollment and with linked primary care data. We used cancer registry data to identify cancer cases prevalent before UK Biobank enrollment and incident cancer diagnosed after enrollment. We used Cox models to evaluate associations of prevalent and incident cancer with all-cause dementia, Alzheimer's disease (AD), and vascular dementia. We used time-varying models to evaluate diagnostic bias. Over a median follow-up of 12.3 years, 3,310 dementia cases were diagnosed. All-site incident cancer was positively associated with all-cause dementia incidence (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.14, 95% CI: 1.02-1.29), but prevalent cancer was not (HR = 1.04, 95% CI: 0.92-1.17). Results were similar for vascular dementia. AD was not associated with prevalent or incident cancer. Dementia diagnosis was substantially elevated in the first year after cancer diagnosis (HR = 1.83, 95% CI: 1.42-2.36), after which the association attenuated to null, suggesting diagnostic bias. Following a cancer diagnosis, health care utilization or cognitive consequences of diagnosis or treatment may increase chance of receiving a dementia diagnosis, creating potential diagnostic bias in electronic health records-based studies.

Association of systemic inflammation with posttraumatic stress disorder after a myocardial infarction.

Background: Adverse mental health conditions including depression, posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), and anxiety are prevalent among patients who survive myocardial infarctions (MI) and are associated with adverse outcomes. The mechanisms underlying these associations, however, are not well understood. Inflammatory pathways may mediate the cardiovascular outcomes of patients with mental health disorders. We examined the bidirectional association between PTSD symptoms and inflammatory biomarkers in a young/middle-aged post MI population. We further examined how this association may differ between women and men as well as between Black and non-Black individuals. Methods: Participants included individuals with early onset MI between the ages 25 and 60. Mental health scores for depression, PTSD, perceived stress, and anxiety as well as inflammatory biomarkers, interleukin-6 (IL-6) and high sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP), were collected at baseline and at six-month follow up. We examined the bidirectional changes in mental health symptoms and inflammatory biomarkers between baseline and follow-up. Results: Among 244 patients in the study (mean age: 50.8, 48.4% female, 64.3% Black), the geometric means for IL-6 level and hsCRP at rest were 1.7 pg/mL and 2.76 mg/L, respectively. Mental health scores at baseline did not consistently predict changes in inflammatory biomarkers at follow-up. However, baseline levels of both IL-6 and hsCRP were robustly associated with an increase in re-experiencing PTSD symptoms at 6 months: in adjusted linear mixed models, there was a 1.58-point increase in re-experiencing PTSD symptoms per unit of baseline hsCRP (p = 0.01) and 2.59-point increase per unit of baseline IL-6 (p = 0.02). Once the analysis was stratified by race, the association was only noted in Black individuals. Baseline inflammation was not associated with change in any of the other mental health symptom scores. Conclusion: Markers of inflammation are associated with an increase in post-event PTSD symptoms in younger or middle-aged patients who experienced an MI, especially Black patients. These results suggest a mechanistic link between inflammation and the development of PTSD among individuals with cardiovascular disease.