Prognostic models in COVID-19 infection that predict severity: a systematic review.

Current evidence on COVID-19 prognostic models is inconsistent and clinical applicability remains controversial. We performed a systematic review to summarize and critically appraise the available studies that have developed, assessed and/or validated prognostic models of COVID-19 predicting health outcomes. We searched six bibliographic databases to identify published articles that investigated univariable and multivariable prognostic models predicting adverse outcomes in adult COVID-19 patients, including intensive care unit (ICU) admission, intubation, high-flow nasal therapy (HFNT), extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) and mortality. We identified and assessed 314 eligible articles from more than 40 countries, with 152 of these studies presenting mortality, 66 progression to severe or critical illness, 35 mortality and ICU admission combined, 17 ICU admission only, while the remaining 44 studies reported prediction models for mechanical ventilation (MV) or a combination of multiple outcomes. The sample size of included studies varied from 11 to 7,704,171 participants, with a mean age ranging from 18 to 93 years. There were 353 prognostic models investigated, with area under the curve (AUC) ranging from 0.44 to 0.99. A great proportion of studies (61.5%, 193 out of 314) performed internal or external validation or replication. In 312 (99.4%) studies, prognostic models were reported to be at high risk of bias due to uncertainties and challenges surrounding methodological rigor, sampling, handling of missing data, failure to deal with overfitting and heterogeneous definitions of COVID-19 and severity outcomes. While several clinical prognostic models for COVID-19 have been described in the literature, they are limited in generalizability and/or applicability due to deficiencies in addressing fundamental statistical and methodological concerns. Future large, multi-centric and well-designed prognostic prospective studies are needed to clarify remaining uncertainties.

Concepts and definitions of healthy ageing: a systematic review and synthesis of theoretical models.

Background: Healthy ageing (HA) has been defined using multiple approaches. We aim to produce a comprehensive overview and analysis of the theoretical models underpinning this concept and its associated normative terms and definitions. Methods: We conducted a systematic review of peer-reviewed HA models in Embase.com, Medline (Ovid), Cochrane CENTRAL, CINAHL, PsycINFO, and Web of Science until August 2022. Original theoretical papers, concept analyses, and reviews that proposed new models were included. Operational models/definitions, development psychology theories and mechanisms of ageing were excluded. We followed an iterative approach to extract the models' characteristics and thematically analyze them based on the approach of Walker and Avant. The protocol was registered in PROSPERO (CRD42021238796). Findings: Out of 10,741 records, we included 59 papers comprising 65 models/definitions, published in English (1960-2022) from 16 countries in Europe, Asia, and America. Human ageing was described using 12 normative terms, mainly (models (%)): successful (34 (52%)), healthy (eight (12%)), well (five (8%)), and active (four (6%)). We identified intrinsic/extrinsic factors interacting throughout the life course, adaptive processes as attributes, and outcomes describing ageing patterns across objective and subjective dimensions (number of models/definitions): cognitive (62), psychological (53), physical (49), social (49), environmental (19), spiritual (16), economic (13), cultural (eight), political (six), and demographic (four) dimensions. Three types of models emerged: health-state outcomes (three), adaptations across the life course (31), or a combination of both (31). Two additional sub-classifications emphasized person-environment congruence and health promotion. Interpretation: HA conceptualizations highlight its multidimensionality and complexity that renders a monistic model/definition challenging. It has become evident that life long person-environment interactions, adaptations, environments, and health promotion/empowerment are essential for HA. Our model classification provides a basis for harmonizing terms and dimensions that can guide research and comparisons of empirical findings, and inform social and health policies enabling HA for various populations and contexts. Funding: MM, ZMRD, and OI are supported by the European Union's Horizon 2020 Marie Sklodowska-Curie grant No 801076, and MM is also supported by the Swiss National Foundation grant No 189235.

Sex and N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide: The potential mediating role of iron biomarkers.

Background: Levels of N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), a marker of heart failure and cardiovascular risk, are generally higher in women than men. We explored whether iron biomarkers mediate sex differences in NT-proBNP levels. Methods: We included 5,343 community-dwelling individuals from the Prevention of Renal and Vascular Endstage Disease study. With linear regression analyses, we investigated the association of sex and iron biomarkers with NT-proBNP levels, independent of adjustment for potential confounders. The assessed iron biomarkers included ferritin, transferrin saturation (TSAT), hepcidin, and soluble transferrin receptor (sTfR). Next, we performed mediation analyses to investigate to which extent iron biomarkers influence the association between sex and NT-proBNP. Results: Of the included 5,343 participants, the mean standard deviation age was 52.2 ± 11.6 years and 52% were females. After adjustment for potential confounders, women compared to men, had higher NT-proBNP (ß = 0.31; 95%CI = 0.29, 0.34), but lower ferritin (ß = -0.37; 95%CI = -0.39, -0.35), hepcidin (ß = -0.22, 95%CI = -0.24, -0.20), and TSAT (ß = -0.07, 95% CI = -0.08, -0.06). Lower ferritin (ß = -0.05, 95%CI = -0.08, -0.02), lower hepcidin (ß = -0.04, 95%CI = -0.07, -0.006), and higher TSAT (ß = 0.07; 95%CI = 0.01, 0.13) were associated with higher NT-proBNP. In mediation analyses, ferritin and hepcidin explained 6.5 and 3.1% of the association between sex and NT-proBNP, respectively, while TSAT minimally suppressed (1.9%) this association. Conclusion: Our findings suggest that iron biomarkers marginally explain sex differences in levels of NT-proBNP. Future studies are needed to explore causality and potential mechanisms underlying these pathways.

Mental health of migrants with pre-migration exposure to armed conflict: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Exposure to armed conflict has been associated with negative mental health consequences. We aimed to estimate the prevalence of generalised anxiety disorder, major depressive disorder, and post-traumatic stress disorder among migrants exposed to armed conflict. METHODS: In this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched online databases (Cochrane Library, Embase, LILACS, PsycInfo [via Ovid], PubMed, and Web of Science Core Collection) for relevant observational studies published between Jan 1, 1994, and June 28, 2021. We included studies that used standardised psychiatric interviews to assess generalised anxiety disorder, major depressive disorder, or post-traumatic stress disorder among migrants (refugees or internally displaced persons; aged ≥18 years) with pre-migration exposure to armed conflict. We excluded studies in which exposure to armed conflict could not be ascertained, studies that included a clinical population or people with chronic diseases that can trigger the onset of mental disease, and studies published before 1994. We used a random effects model to estimate each mental health disorder's pooled prevalence and random effects meta-regression to assess sources of heterogeneity. Two independent reviewers assessed the risk of bias for each study using the Joanna Briggs Institute Checklist for Prevalence Studies. The protocol was registered with PROSPERO, CRD42020209251. FINDINGS: Of the 13 935 studies identified, 34 met our inclusion criteria; these studies accounted for 15 549 migrants. We estimated a prevalence of current post-traumatic stress disorder of 31% (95% CI 23-40); prevalence of current major depressive disorder of 25% (17-34); and prevalence of generalised anxiety disorder of 14% (5-35). Younger age was associated with a higher prevalence of current post-traumatic stress disorder (odds ratio 0·95 [95% CI 0·90-0·99]), lifetime post-traumatic stress disorder (0·88 [0·83-0·92]), and current generalised anxiety disorder (0·87 [0·78-0·97]). A longer time since displacement was associated with a lower lifetime prevalence of post-traumatic stress disorder (0·88 [0·81-0·95]) and major depressive disorder (0·81 [0·77-0·86]). Migrating to a middle-income (8·09 [3·06-21·40]) or low-income (39·29 [11·96-129·70]) country was associated with increased prevalence of generalised anxiety disorder. INTERPRETATION: Migrants who are exposed to armed conflict are at high risk of mental health disorders. The mental health-care needs of migrants should be assessed soon after resettlement, and adequate care should be provided, with particular attention paid to young adults. FUNDING: Marie Sklodowska-Curie Actions (Horizon 2020-COFUND), MinCiencias (Colombia), and Swiss National Science Foundation.

Association of diabetes with atrial fibrillation types: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a common arrhythmia classified as paroxysmal and non-paroxysmal. Non-paroxysmal AF is associated with an increased risk of complications. Diabetes contributes to AF initiation, yet its role in AF maintenance is unclear. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to summarize the evidence regarding the association of diabetes with AF types. METHODS: We searched 5 databases for observational studies investigating the association of diabetes with the likelihood of an AF type (vs another type) in humans. Study quality was evaluated using the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale. Studies classifying AF types as paroxysmal (reference) and non-paroxysmal were pooled in a meta-analysis using random effects models. RESULTS: Of 1997 articles we identified, 20 were included in our systematic review. The population sample size ranged from 64 to 9816 participants with mean age ranging from 40 to 75 years and percentage of women from 24.8 to 100%. The quality of studies varied from poor (60%) to fair (5%) to good (35%). In the systematic review, 8 studies among patients with AF investigated the cross-sectional association of diabetes with non-paroxysmal AF (vs paroxysmal) of which 6 showed a positive association and 2 showed no association. Fourteen studies investigated the longitudinal association of diabetes with "more sustained" AF types (vs "less sustained") of which 2 showed a positive association and 12 showed no association. In the meta-analysis of cross-sectional studies, patients with AF and diabetes were 1.31-times more likely to have non-paroxysmal AF than those without diabetes [8 studies; pooled OR (95% CI), 1.31 (1.13-1.51), I2 = 82.6%]. The meta-analysis of longitudinal studies showed that for patients with paroxysmal AF, diabetes is associated with 1.32-times increased likelihood of progression to non-paroxysmal AF [five studies; pooled OR (95% CI), 1.32 (1.07-1.62); I2 = 0%]. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that diabetes is associated with an increased likelihood of non-paroxysmal AF rather than paroxysmal AF. However, further high quality studies are needed to replicate these findings, adjust for potential confounders, elucidate mechanisms linking diabetes to non-paroxysmal AF, and assess the impact of antidiabetic medications on AF types. These strategies could eventually help decrease the risk of non-paroxysmal AF among patients with diabetes.