Developing a fuzzy logic-based risk assessment for groundwater contamination from well integrity failure during hydraulic fracturing.

Recent natural gas development by means of hydraulic fracturing requires a detailed risk analysis to eliminate or mitigate damage to the natural environment. Such geo-energy related subsurface activities involve complex engineering processes and uncertain data, making comprehensive, quantitative risk assessments a challenge to develop. This research seeks to develop a risk framework utilising data for quantitative numerical analysis and expert knowledge for qualitative analysis in the form of fuzzy logic, focusing on hydraulically fractured wells during the well stimulation stage applied to scenarios in the UK and Canada. New fault trees are developed for assessing cement failure in the vertical and horizontal directions, resulting in probabilities of failure of 3.42% and 0.84%, respectively. An overall probability of migration to groundwater during the well injection stage was determined as 0.0006%, compared with a Canadian case study which considered 0.13% of wells failed during any stage of the wells life cycle. It incorporates various data types to represent the complexity of hydraulic fracturing, encouraging a more complete and accurate analysis of risk failures which engineers can directly apply to old and new hydraulic fracturing sites without the necessity for extensive historic and probabilistic data. This framework can be extended to assess risk across all stages of well development, which would lead to a gap in the modelled and actual probabilities narrowing. The framework developed has relevance to other geo-energy related subsurface activities such as CO2 sequestration, geothermal, and waste fluid injection disposal.

Propensity for fugitive gas migration in glaciofluvial deposits: An assessment of near-surface hydrofacies in the Peace Region, Northeastern British Columbia.

Petroleum resource development has generated a global legacy of millions of active and decommissioned energy wells. Associated with this legacy are concerns about wellbore integrity failure and leakage of fugitive gas into groundwater and atmosphere. The fate of fugitive gas in the shallow subsurface is controlled by sediment heterogeneity, hydrostratigraphy and hydraulic connectivity. We characterized the shallow subsurface at a site in northeastern British Columbia, Canada; a region of extensive petroleum resource development. We collected 13 core profiles, 9 cone-penetrometer profiles, 58 sediment samples and 4 electrical resistivity profiles. At the site, a ~ 12 m thick layer of low-permeability diamict (10-8 m/s) overlays a more permeable (10-6 - 10-4 m/s) but highly heterogeneous sequence of glacigenic sand, clay and silt. We develop a conceptual hydrostratigraphic model for fluid flow in this system in the context of fugitive-gas migration. Driven by buoyancy forces, free-phase gas will move upward through discontinuous permeable zones within the Quaternary sediments, until it encounters lower permeability interbeds where it will pool, flow laterally or become trapped and dissolve into flowing groundwater. The vertical extent of gas migration will be significantly limited by the relatively continuous overlying diamict, a feature common across the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin. However, intra-till lenses observed embedded within the diamict may provide pathways for gas to move vertically towards ground surface and into the atmosphere. This study provides one of the few investigations examining geological and hydrogeological heterogeneity in the shallow subsurface at scales relevant to gas migration. For glaciated regions with similar surficial geology, such as Western Canada Sedimentary Basin, gas that is released into the subsurface from an energy wellbore, below a surface diamict, will likely migrate laterally away from the wellbore, and be inhibited from reaching ground surface and emitting to atmosphere.

Barometric-pumping controls fugitive gas emissions from a vadose zone natural gas release.

Subsurface natural gas release from leaking oil and gas wells is a major environmental concern. Gas migration can cause aquifer contamination, explosive conditions in soil gas, and greenhouse gas emissions. Gas migration is controlled by complex interacting processes, thus constraining the distribution and magnitude of "fugitive gas" emissions remains a challenge. We simulated wellbore leakage in the vadose zone through a controlled release experiment and demonstrate that fugitive gas emissions can be directly influenced by barometric pressure changes. Decreases in barometric-pressure led to surface gas breakthroughs (>20-fold increase in <24 hours), even in the presence of low-permeability surficial soils. Current monitoring strategies do not consider the effect of barometric pressure changes on gas migration and may not provide adequate estimates of fugitive gas emissions. Frequent or continuous monitoring is needed to accurately detect and quantify fugitive gas emissions at oil and gas sites with a deep water table.

Hydro-biogeochemical impacts of fugitive methane on a shallow unconfined aquifer.

Oil and gas development can result in natural gas migration into shallow groundwater. Methane (CH4), the primary component of natural gas, can subsequently react with solutes and minerals in the aquifer to create byproducts that affect groundwater chemistry. Hydro-biogeochemical processes induced by fugitive gas from leaky oil and gas wells are currently not well understood. We monitored the hydro-biogeochemical responses of a controlled natural gas release into a well-studied Pleistocene beach sand aquifer (Canadian Forces Base Borden, Ontario, Canada). Groundwater samples were collected before, during, and up to 700 days after gas injection and analyzed for pH, major and minor ions, alkalinity, dissolved gases, stable carbon isotope ratios of CO2 and CH4, and microbial community composition. Gas injection resulted in a dispersed plume of free and dissolved phase natural gas, affecting groundwater chemistry in two distinct temporal phases. Initially (i.e. during and immediately after gas injection), pH declined and major ions and trace elements fluctuated; at times increasing above baseline concentrations. Changes in the short-term were due to invasion of deep groundwater with elevated total dissolved solids entrained with the upward migration of free phase gas and, reactions that were instigated through the introduction of constituents other than CH4 present in the injected gas (e.g. CO2). At later times, more pronounced aerobic and anaerobic CH4 oxidation led to subtle increases in major ions (e.g. Ca2+, H4SiO4) and trace elements (e.g. As, Cr). Microbial community profiling indicated a persistent perturbation to community composition with a conspicuous ingrowth of taxa implicated in aerobic CH4 oxidation as well anaerobic S, N and Fe species metabolism.

Methane gas transport in unconfined aquifers: A numerical sensitivity study of a controlled release experiment at CFB Borden.

Subsurface leakage of natural gas from petroleum wells can impact freshwater aquifers. Accurate prediction of gas migration in the subsurface will depend on knowledge of permeability, porosity, and flow system conditions. A series of two-dimensional numerical multi-phase flow simulations (CFbio) were conducted to investigate the role of multi-phase parameters (relative permeability and air entry pressure), flow system conditions (intrinsic permeability, anisotropy, and groundwater velocity), and geometric properties (layer thickness and layer lateral continuity) on the flow of gas-phase methane emanating from two variable-rate point sources in an unconfined sandy aquifer. Numerical simulations showed that for a homogeneous, weakly anisotropic aquifer, gas migrates almost exclusively vertically due to buoyancy, before venting to the vadose zone and atmosphere. As vertical migration became restricted through increased anisotropy, inclusion of lower-permeable layers, or increased horizontal groundwater velocity, an increase in the lateral component of gas migration was observed. This led to the formation of a broader lateral migration of the gas-phase plume and establishment of variably distributed vertical preferential flow paths, ultimately resulting in increased gas retention in the aquifer with relatively less methane reaching the vadose zone or atmosphere. The inclusion of a thin layer with moderately lower permeability (1-2 orders of magnitude) and increased air entry pressure was used to depict a fine-grained sand lens within a uniform aquifer. This subtle feature led to the formation of thin gas pools extending up- and down-gradient beneath the lens, allowing methane to travel much farther and faster than by groundwater advection alone, which is consistent with field observations during the experiment. In all scenarios investigated gas-phase methane was shown to migrate predominantly vertically due to buoyancy, until the aquitard permeability was <30% of the aquifer permeability. Our modelling demonstrates that even subtle permeability contrasts, together with capillary pressure changes demarcating grain-scale bedding, will lead to extensive lateral free-phase gas migration, and development of a more extensive and complex zone of impacted aquifer than presupposed.

High resolution spatial and temporal evolution of dissolved gases in groundwater during a controlled natural gas release experiment.

Fugitive gas comprised primarily of methane (CH4) with traces of ethane and propane (collectively termed C1-3) may negatively impact shallow groundwater when unintentionally released from oil and natural gas wells. Currently, knowledge of fugitive gas migration, subsurface source identification and oxidation potential in groundwater is limited. To advance understanding, a controlled release experiment was performed at the Borden Research Aquifer, Canada, whereby 51m3 of natural gas was injected into an unconfined sand aquifer over 72days with dissolved gases monitored over 323days. During active gas injection, a dispersed plume of dissolved C1-3 evolved in a depth discrete and spatially complex manner. Evolution of the dissolved gas plume was driven by free-phase gas migration controlled by small-scale sediment layering and anisotropy. Upon cessation of gas injection, C1-3 concentrations increased to the greatest levels observed, particularly at 2 and 6m depths, reaching up to 31.5, 1.5 and 0.1mg/L respectively before stabilizing and persisting. At no time did groundwater become fully saturated with natural gas at the scale of sampling undertaken. Throughout the experiment the isotopic composition of injected methane (δ13C of -42.2‰) and the wetness parameter (i.e. the ratio of C1 to C2+) constituted excellent tracers for the presence of fugitive gas at concentrations >2mg/L. At discrete times C1-3 concentrations varied by up to 4 orders of magnitude over 8m of aquifer thickness (e.g. from <0.01 to 30mg/L for CH4), while some groundwater samples lacked evidence of fugitive gas, despite being within 10m of the injection zone. Meanwhile, carbon isotope ratios of dissolved CH4 showed no evidence of oxidation. Our results show that while impacts to aquifers from a fugitive gas event are readily detectable at discrete depths, they are spatially and temporally variable and dissolved methane has propensity to persist.

Monitoring the evolution and migration of a methane gas plume in an unconfined sandy aquifer using time-lapse GPR and ERT.

Fugitive methane (CH4) leakage associated with conventional and unconventional petroleum development (e.g., shale gas) may pose significant risks to shallow groundwater. While the potential threat of stray (CH4) gas in aquifers has been acknowledged, few studies have examined the nature of its migration and fate in a shallow groundwater flow system. This study examines the geophysical responses observed from surface during a 72day field-scale simulated CH4 leak in an unconfined sandy aquifer at Canadian Forces Base Borden, Canada, to better understand the transient behaviour of fugitive CH4 gas in the subsurface. Time-lapse ground-penetrating radar (GPR) and electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) were used to monitor the distribution and migration of the gas-phase and assess any impacts to groundwater hydrochemistry. Geophysical measurements captured the transient formation of a CH4 gas plume emanating from the injector, which was accompanied by an increase in total dissolved gas pressure (PTDG). Subsequent reductions in PTDG were accompanied by reduced bulk resistivity around the injector along with an increase in the GPR reflectivity along horizontal bedding reflectors farther downgradient. Repeat temporal GPR reflection profiling identified three events with major peaks in reflectivity, interpreted to represent episodic lateral CH4 gas release events into the aquifer. Here, a gradual increase in PTDG near the injector caused a sudden lateral breakthrough of gas in the direction of groundwater flow, causing free-phase CH4 to migrate much farther than anticipated based on groundwater advection. CH4 accumulated along subtle permeability boundaries demarcated by grain-scale bedding within the aquifer characteristic of numerous Borden-aquifer multi-phase flow experiments. Diminishing reflectivity over a period of days to weeks suggests buoyancy-driven migration to the vadose zone and/or CH4 dissolution into groundwater. Lateral and vertical CH4 migration was primarily governed by subtle, yet measurable heterogeneity and anisotropy in the aquifer.