An SEIHR model with age group and social contact for analysis of Fuzhou COVID-19 large wave.

Background: The structure of age groups and social contacts of the total population influenced infection scales and hospital-bed requirements, especially influenced severe infections and deaths during the global prevalence of COVID-19. Before the end of the year 2022, Chinese government implemented the national vaccination and had built the herd immunity cross the country, and announced Twenty Measures (November 11) and Ten New Measures (December 7) for further modifications of dynamic zero-COVID polity on the Chinese mainland. With the nation-wide vaccination and modified measures background, Fuzhou COVID-19 large wave (November 19, 2022-February 9, 2023) led by Omicron BA.5.2 variant was recorded and prevailed for three months in Fujian Province. Methods: A multi-age groups susceptible-exposed-infected-hospitalized-recovered (SEIHR) COVID-19 model with social contacts was proposed in this study. The main object was to evaluate the impacts of age groups and social contacts of the total population. The idea of Least Squares method was governed to perform the data fittings of four age groups against the surveillance data from Fujian Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention (Fujian CDC). The next generation matrix method was used to compute basic reproduction number for the total population and for the specific age group. The tendencies of effective reproduction number of four age groups were plotted by using the Epiestim R package and the SEIHR model for in-depth discussions. The sensitivity analysis by using sensitivity index and partial rank correlation coefficients values (PRCC values) were operated to reveal the differences of age groups against the main parameters. Results: The main epidemiological features such as basic reproduction number, effective reproduction number and sensitivity analysis were extensively discussed for multi-age groups SEIHR model in this study. Firstly, by using of the next generation matrix method, basic reproduction number R0 of the total population was estimated as 1.57 using parameter values of four age groups of Fuzhou COVID-19 large wave. Given age group k, the values of R0k (age group k to age group k), the values of R0k (an infected of age group k to the total population) and the values of R^0k (an infected of the total population to age group k) were also estimated, in which the explorations of the impacts of age groups revealed that the relationship R0k>R0k>R^0k was valid. Then, the fluctuating tendencies of effective reproduction number Rt were demonstrated by using two approaches (the surveillance data and the SEIHR model) for Fuzhou COVID-19 large wave, during which high-risk group (G4 group) mainly contributed the infection scale due to high susceptibility to infection and high risks to basic diseases. Further, the sensitivity analysis using two approaches (the sensitivity index and the PRCC values) revealed that susceptibility to infection of age groups played the vital roles, while the numerical simulation showed that infection scale varied with the changes of social contacts of age groups. The results of this study claimed that the high-risk group out of the total population was concerned by the local government with the highest susceptibility to infection against COVID-19. Conclusions: This study verified that the partition structure of age groups of the total population, the susceptibility to infection of age groups, the social contacts among age groups were the important contributors of infection scale. The less social contacts and adequate hospital beds for high-risk group were profitable to control the spread of COVID-19. To avoid the emergence of medical runs against new variant in the future, the policymakers from local government were suggested to decline social contacts when hospital beds were limited.

Transmission dynamics of symptom-dependent HIV/AIDS models.

In this study, we proposed two, symptom-dependent, HIV/AIDS models to investigate the dynamical properties of HIV/AIDS in the Fujian Province. The basic reproduction number was obtained, and the local and global stabilities of the disease-free and endemic equilibrium points were verified to the deterministic HIV/AIDS model. Moreover, the indicators $ R_0/ $ and $ R_0^e $ were derived for the stochastic HIV/AIDS model, and the conditions for stationary distribution and stochastic extinction were investigated. By using the surveillance data from the Fujian Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, some numerical simulations and future predictions on the scale of HIV/AIDS infections in the Fujian Province were conducted.

Impact of public health and social measures on contact dynamics during a SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant outbreak in Quanzhou, China, March to April 2022.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the impact of early implementation of public health and social measures (PHSMs) on contact rates over time and explore contact behavior of asymptomatic versus symptomatic cases. METHODS: We used the largest contact tracing data in China thus far to estimate the mean contacts over time by age groups and contact settings. We used bootstrap with replacement to quantify the uncertainty of contact matrixes. The Pearson correlation was performed to demonstrate the number of contacts over time in relation to the evolution of restrictions. In addition, we analyzed the index cases with a high number of contacts and index cases that produced a high number of secondary cases. RESULTS: Rapidly adapted PHSMs can reduce the mean contact rates in public places while increasing the mean contact rates within households. The mean contact rates were 11.81 (95% confidence interval, 11.61-12.01) for asymptomatic (at the time of investigation) cases and 6.70 (95% confidence interval, 6.54-6.87) for symptomatic cases. The percentage of asymptomatic cases (at the time of investigation) meeting >50 close contacts make up more than 65% of the overall cases. The percentage of asymptomatic cases producing >10 secondary cases account for more than 80% of the overall cases. CONCLUSION: PHSMs may increase the contacts within the household, necessitating the need for pertinent prevention strategies at home. Asymptomatic cases can contribute significantly to Omicron transmission. By making asymptomatic people aware that they are already contagious, hence limiting their social contacts, it is possible to lower the transmission risk.

Inactivated vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic COVID-19 in Fujian, China during the Omicron BA.2 outbreak.

Objective: More than 90% of the Chinese population have completed 2 doses of inactivated COVID-19 vaccines in Mainland China. However, after China government abandoned strict control measures, many breakthrough infections appeared, and vaccine effectiveness against Omicron BA.2 infection was uncertain. This study aims to investigate the real-world effectiveness of widely used inactivated vaccines during the wave of Omicron variants. Methods: Test-negative case-control study was conducted in this study to analyze the vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic disease caused by the Omicron variant (BA.2) in Fujian, China. Conditional logistic regression was selected to estimate the vaccine effectiveness. Results: The study found the vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic COVID-19 is 32.46% (95% CI, 8.08% to 50.37%) at 2 to 8 weeks, and 27.05% (95% CI, 1.23% to 46.12%) at 12 to 24 weeks after receiving booster doses of the inactivated vaccine. Notably, the 3-17 years group had higher vaccine effectiveness after 2 doses than the 18-64 years and over 65 years groups who received booster doses. Conclusion: Inactivated vaccines alone may not offer sufficient protection for all age groups before the summer of 2022. To enhance protection, other types of vaccines or bivalent vaccines should be considered.

Epidemiological characteristics of viral hepatitis E in Fujian Province from 2012 to 2021 / 中国热带医学

@#Abstract: Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of viral hepatitis E in Fujian Province from 2012-2021, and to provide scientific evidence for the prevention and control of hepatitis E in the future. Methods Descriptive epidemiological method was used to analyze hepatitis E cases in Fujian Province from 2012 to 2021. Results From 2012 to 2021, a total of 8 877 cases of hepatitis E were reported in Fujian Province from 2012-2021. The overall incidence rate showed a decreasing trend (χ2trend =458.14, P<0.001), with the lowest incidence rate of 1.32/100 000 in 2020 and an annual average incidence rate of 2.29/100 000 per year. The incidence was higher in winter and spring, with the months of March and April having the highest number of reported cases (2 146, 24.17%) and the fewest cases were reported in September (571, 6.43%). The difference in reported incidence rates between cities was statistically significant (χ2=1 877.75, P<0.01). The comprehensive experimental zone of Pingtan had the highest average reported incidence rate of 6.03/100 000, while Zhangzhou had the lowest at 0.94/100 000. The number of male cases was higher than the number of female cases, with a male to female ratio of 2.04∶1. The disease was most prevalent among middle-aged and elderly individuals, with the age group of 40-<65 years having the highest number of reported cases, accounting for 57.44% (5 099/8 877) of all cases. The age group of 50-<55 years had the highest reported incidence, with the number of reported cases increasing with age below 50 years, but decreasing with age over 50 years. As for occupational distribution, peasants had the highest proportion of the disease, accounting for 34.49% (3 062 cases) of the total cases. Conclusions The reported incidence rate of hepatitis E in Fujian showed a downward from 2012 to 2021. Due to the impact of COVID-19, incidence of the lowest was 2020, but it did not reflect the true situation of the disease, which may have affected trend of hepatitis E. In order to control and reduce the incidence of hepatitis E, efforts should be made to increase publicity and education on health knowledge and vaccination among key areas and populations, strengthen monitoring and diagnostic capability, and implement comprehensive prevention and control measures.

HIV prevalence in suspected Ebola cases during the 2014-2016 Ebola epidemic in Sierra Leone.

BACKGROUND: The 2014-2016 Ebola virus epidemic in West Africa was the largest outbreak of Ebola virus disease (EVD) in history. Clarifying the influence of other prevalent diseases such as human immunodeficiency virus infection and acquired immune deficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) will help improve treatment and supportive care of patients with EVD. CASE PRESENTATION: We examined HIV and hepatitis C virus (HCV) antibody prevalence among suspected EVD cases from the Sierra Leone-China Friendship Biological Safety Laboratory during the epidemic in Sierra Leone. HIV and HCV antibodies were tested in 678 EVD-negative samples by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. A high HIV prevalence (17.6%) and low HCV prevalence (0.22%) were observed among the suspected cases. Notably, we found decreased HIV positive rates among the suspected cases over the course of the epidemic. This suggests a potentially beneficial effect of an improved public health system after assistance from the World Health Organization and other international aid organizations. CONCLUSIONS: This EVD epidemic had a considerable impact on the public health system and influenced the prevalence of HIV found among suspected cases in Sierra Leone, but also provided an opportunity to establish a better surveillance network for infectious diseases.

Serological Investigation of Laboratory-Confirmed and Suspected Ebola Virus Disease Patients During the Late Phase of the Ebola Outbreak in Sierra Leone.

This study aimed to investigate the serological characteristics of Ebola virus (EBOV) infection during the late phase of the Ebola outbreak in Sierra Leone. In total, 877 blood samples from 694 suspected Ebola virus disease (EVD) cases assessed from March to December 2015, were analyzed via real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) for viral RNA and enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) and Luminex to detect antibodies against EBOV. Viral load and EBOV-specific IgM/IgG titers displayed a declining trend during March to December 2015. Viral RNA load decreased rapidly at earlier stages after disease onset, while EBOV-specific IgM and IgG still persisted in 58.1% (18/31) and 93.5% (29/31) of the confirmed EVD patients and in 3.8% (25/663) and 17.8% (118/663) of the RNA-negative suspected patients in the later phase, respectively. Dynamic analysis of longitudinally collected samples from eight EVD patients revealed typically reversed trends of declining viral load and increasing IgM and/or IgG titers in response to the EBOV infection. The present results indicate that certain populations of Sierra Leone developed immunity to an EBOV infection in the late phase of the outbreak, providing novel insights into the risk assessment of EBOV infections among human populations.

[Role of syndromic surveillance program in the practice of early detection on disease outbreak].

OBJECTIVE: A Dengue outbreak was reported in Dongfen town Jianou county, Fujian province on September 19, 2014. The goal of this project was to explore the role of syndromic surveillance program in the practice of early detection on disease outbreak through the case mentioned above. METHODS: The authors retrospectively collected data related to Outpatient log and Pharmacy drug use in Dongfen township hospital through the electronic information system of the hospital from August to November, 2014. All the abnormal events were recorded, according to related data on fever and drug use. Description of fever, syndromic characteristics, correlation and Linear regression analyses were conducted, using the surveillance data on fever syndrome and drug use from the pharmacy. RESULTS: A total of 1 102 cases with fever and 2 437 fever-related clinic visits were reported which showing an increased number of 19.6, 10.2 times respectively, when compared to the same period of the previous year in which men accounted for 45.3% (499/1 102) and female accounted for 54.7% (603/1 102). Age groups presented an atypical type " M" type. 5 and 10 year olds groups formed the largest proportion, accounted for 11.5% (127/1 102) of the total number os the patients. The correlation coefficient ranged from 0.85 to 0.97 (P<0.05). Data from the syndromic surveillance program showed an " outbreak" was occured in August 23, 2014. CONCLUSIONS: Compared to routine surveillance program, the syndromic surveillance program could detect the appearence of an outbreak, a month or even more earlier. The role of syndromic surveillance program needs to be further explored.

[Study on the public health emergent events in Fujian province in 2004--2007].

OBJECTIVE: To study the public health emergent events (PHEE) in Fujian province, from 2004 to 2007. METHODS: Descriptive and analytic methods were used to analyze the PHEE in Fujian province according to the internet-based surveillance reports. RESULTS: From 2004 to 2007, there were 304 emergency events being surveyed. Of all the events, there were 7 (2.30%) belonged to serious-degree of grade II, 57(18.75%) to grade III and 240 (78.95%) to grade IV, but with no grade I. Results showed that the attack rate in affected population was 25.82 per thousand, the mortality rate was 0.08 per thousand and the fatality rate was 0.32%. The numbers of emergency events decreased 2.82% on average, each year. A total number of 169 (55.60%) events occurred in schools with 71 (23.36%) in the countryside. Numbers due to infectious disease-born was 233 (76.64%) including avian flu, cholera and dengue fever were predominant pathogens of the grade II and grade III emergency events. 57 (18.75%) of the events was due to food poisoning. The epi-garph showed that there were two peaks. i.e. in Mar-Apr and Sep, contributed 43.1% to the total number of events. CONCLUSION: Emergency events showed a stable decrease in Fujian province with communicable disease and food poisoning the two major sources and more commonly seen in schools and countryside. We suggest that the government and community pay more attention to the emergency events of avian flu, cholera and dengue fever.

[Study on the epidemiology and etiologic agent of Dengue fever outbreaks in Fuzhou in 2004].

OBJECTIVE: To study the epidemiology and etiologic characteristics of a Dengue fever outbreak in Fuzhou from the beginning of September to the end of October in 2004 in order to understand the source of infection. METHODS: Data on descriptive epidemiology was collected to study the characteristics and related factors to the epidemic. Dengue virus was isolated through the use of C6/36 cell line while viral serotypes were identified by indirect immunofluorecent assay with type-specific monoclonal antibody. The sources of infection were traced by nucleotide sequencing. RESULTS: During the epidemic, 93 cases occured consistently with the region entomoplily growth and decay. The viruses of 6 strains isolated from 10 patients' blood specimens were identified as dengue virus type 1. Phylogenetic evidence suggested that the viral isolate had high genetic relation with the isolates from Kampuchea (DENV-1/KHM/2001; GenBank Accession No. L0904278). CONCLUSION: The epidemic was caused by introduction of patients migrating into Fuzhou.