Global estimates of pregnancies at risk of Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax infection in 2020 and changes in risk patterns since 2000.

BACKGROUND: Women are at risk of severe adverse pregnancy outcomes attributable to Plasmodium spp. infection in malaria-endemic areas. Malaria control efforts since 2000 have aimed to reduce this burden of disease. METHODS: We used data from the Malaria Atlas Project and WorldPop to calculate global pregnancies at-risk of Plasmodium spp. infection. We categorised pregnancies as occurring in areas of stable and unstable P. falciparum and P. vivax transmission. We further stratified stable endemicity as hypo-endemic, meso-endemic, hyper-endemic, or holo-endemic, and estimated pregnancies at risk in 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, 2017, and 2020. FINDINGS: In 2020, globally 120.4M pregnancies were at risk of P. falciparum, two-thirds (81.0M, 67.3%) were in areas of stable transmission; 85 2M pregnancies were at risk of P. vivax, 93.9% (80.0M) were in areas of stable transmission. An estimated 64.6M pregnancies were in areas with both P. falciparum and P. vivax transmission. The number of pregnancies at risk of each of P. falciparum and P. vivax worldwide decreased between 2000 and 2020, with the exception of sub-Saharan Africa, where the total number of pregnancies at risk of P. falciparum increased from 37 3M in 2000 to 52 4M in 2020. INTERPRETATION: Historic investments in malaria control have reduced the number of women at risk of malaria in pregnancy in all endemic regions except sub-Saharan Africa. Population growth in Africa has outpaced reductions in malaria prevalence. Interventions that reduce the risk of malaria in pregnancy are needed as much today as ever.

Evaluation of seasonal malaria chemoprevention in two areas of intense seasonal malaria transmission: Secondary analysis of a household-randomised, placebo-controlled trial in Houndé District, Burkina Faso and Bougouni District, Mali.

BACKGROUND: Seasonal malaria chemoprevention (SMC) is now widely deployed in the Sahel, including several countries that are major contributors to the global burden of malaria. Consequently, it is important to understand whether SMC continues to provide a high level of protection and how SMC might be improved. SMC was evaluated using data from a large, household-randomised trial in Houndé, Burkina Faso and Bougouni, Mali. METHODS AND FINDINGS: The parent trial evaluated monthly SMC plus either azithromycin (AZ) or placebo, administered as directly observed therapy 4 times per year between August and November (2014-2016). In July 2014, 19,578 children aged 3-59 months were randomised by household to study group. Children who remained within the age range 3-59 months in August each year, plus children born into study households or who moved into the study area, received study drugs in 2015 and 2016. These analyses focus on the approximately 10,000 children (5,000 per country) under observation each year in the SMC plus placebo group. Despite high coverage and high adherence to SMC, the incidence of hospitalisations or deaths due to malaria and uncomplicated clinical malaria remained high in the study areas (overall incidence rates 12.5 [95% confidence interval (CI): 11.2, 14.1] and 871.1 [95% CI: 852.3, 890.6] cases per 1,000 person-years, respectively) and peaked in July each year, before SMC delivery began in August. The incidence rate ratio comparing SMC within the past 28 days with SMC more than 35 days ago-adjusted for age, country, and household clustering-was 0.13 (95% CI: 0.08, 0.20), P < 0.001 for malaria hospitalisations and deaths from malaria and 0.21 (95% CI 0.20, 0.23), P < 0.001 for uncomplicated malaria, indicating protective efficacy of 87.4% (95% CI: 79.6%, 92.2%) and 78.3% (95% CI: 76.8%, 79.6%), respectively. The prevalence of malaria parasitaemia at weekly surveys during the rainy season and at the end of the transmission season was several times higher in children who missed the SMC course preceding the survey contact, and the smallest prevalence ratio observed was 2.98 (95% CI: 1.95, 4.54), P < 0.001. The frequency of molecular markers of sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP) and amodiaquine (AQ) resistance did not increase markedly over the study period either amongst study children or amongst school-age children resident in the study areas. After 3 years of SMC deployment, the day 28 PCR-unadjusted adequate clinical and parasitological response rate of the SP + AQ regimen in children with asymptomatic malaria was 98.3% (95% CI: 88.6%, 99.8%) in Burkina Faso and 96.1% (95% CI: 91.5%, 98.2%) in Mali. Key limitations of this study are the potential overdiagnosis of uncomplicated malaria by rapid diagnostic tests and the potential for residual confounding from factors related to adherence to the monthly SMC schedule. CONCLUSION: Despite strong evidence that SMC is providing a high level of protection, the burden of malaria remains substantial in the 2 study areas. These results emphasise the need for continuing support of SMC programmes. A fifth monthly SMC course is needed to adequately cover the whole transmission season in the study areas and in settings with similar epidemiology. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The AZ-SMC trial in which these data were collected was registered at clinicaltrials.gov: NCT02211729.

Impact of introduction of rapid diagnostic tests for malaria on antibiotic prescribing: analysis of observational and randomised studies in public and private healthcare settings.

Objectives To examine the impact of use of rapid diagnostic tests for malaria on prescribing of antimicrobials, specifically antibiotics, for acute febrile illness in Africa and Asia.Design Analysisof nine preselected linked and codesigned observational and randomised studies (eight cluster or individually randomised trials and one observational study).Setting Public and private healthcare settings, 2007-13, in Afghanistan, Cameroon, Ghana, Nigeria, Tanzania, and Uganda.Participants 522 480 children and adults with acute febrile illness.Interventions Rapid diagnostic tests for malaria.Main outcome measures Proportions of patients for whom an antibiotic was prescribed in trial groups who had undergone rapid diagnostic testing compared with controls and in patients with negative test results compared with patients with positive results. A secondary aim compared classes of antibiotics prescribed in different settings.Results Antibiotics were prescribed to 127 052/238 797 (53%) patients in control groups and 167 714/283 683 (59%) patients in intervention groups. Antibiotics were prescribed to 40% (35 505/89 719) of patients with a positive test result for malaria and to 69% (39 400/57 080) of those with a negative result. All but one study showed a trend toward more antibiotic prescribing in groups who underwent rapid diagnostic tests. Random effects meta-analysis of the trials showed that the overall risk of antibiotic prescription was 21% higher (95% confidence interval 7% to 36%) in intervention settings. In most intervention settings, patients with negative test results received more antibiotic prescriptions than patients with positive results for all the most commonly used classes: penicillins, trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole (one exception), tetracyclines, and metronidazole.Conclusions Introduction of rapid diagnostic tests for malaria to reduce unnecessary use of antimalarials-a beneficial public health outcome-could drive up untargeted use of antibiotics. That 69% of patients were prescribed antibiotics when test results were negative probably represents overprescription.This included antibiotics from several classes, including those like metronidazole that are seldom appropriate for febrile illness, across varied clinical, health system, and epidemiological settings. It is often assumed that better disease specific diagnostics will reduce antimicrobial overuse, but they might simply shift it from one antimicrobial class to another. Current global implementation of malaria testing might increase untargeted antibiotic use and must be examined.

Seasonality in malaria transmission: implications for case-management with long-acting artemisinin combination therapy in sub-Saharan Africa.

BACKGROUND: Long-acting artemisinin-based combination therapy (LACT) offers the potential to prevent recurrent malaria attacks in highly exposed children. However, it is not clear where this advantage will be most important, and deployment of these drugs is not rationalized on this basis. METHODS: To understand where post-treatment prophylaxis would be most beneficial, the relationship between seasonality, transmission intensity and the interval between malaria episodes was explored using data from six cohort studies in West Africa and an individual-based malaria transmission model. The total number of recurrent malaria cases per 1000 child-years at risk, and the fraction of the total annual burden that this represents were estimated for sub-Saharan Africa. RESULTS: In settings where prevalence is less than 10 %, repeat malaria episodes constitute a small fraction of the total burden, and few repeat episodes occur within the window of protection provided by currently available drugs. However, in higher transmission settings, and particularly in high transmission settings with highly seasonal transmission, repeat malaria becomes increasingly important, with up to 20 % of the total clinical burden in children estimated to be due to repeat episodes within 4 weeks of a prior attack. CONCLUSION: At a given level of transmission intensity and annual incidence, the concentration of repeat malaria episodes in time, and consequently the protection from LACT is highest in the most seasonal areas. As a result, the degree of seasonality, in addition to the overall intensity of transmission, should be considered by policy makers when deciding between ACT that differ in their duration of post-treatment prophylaxis.

Composite endpoints for malaria case-management: not simplifying the picture?

Rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) for infection with Plasmodium spp. offer two main potential advantages related to malaria treatment: 1) ensuring that individuals with malaria are promptly treated with an effective artemisinin-based combination therapy, and 2) ensuring that individuals without malaria do not receive an anti-malarial they do not need (and instead receive a more appropriate treatment). Some studies of the impact of RDTs on malaria case management have combined these two different successes into a binary outcome describing 'correct management'. However combining correct management of positives and negatives into a single summary measure can be misleading. The problems, which are analogous to those encountered in the evaluation of diagnostic tests, can largely be avoided if data for patients with and without malaria are presented and analysed separately. Where a combined metric is necessary, then one of the established approaches to summarise the performance of diagnostic tests could be considered, although these are not without their limitations. Two graphical approaches to help understand case management performance are illustrated.

Analysis of partial and complete protection in malaria cohort studies.

BACKGROUND: Malaria transmission is highly heterogeneous and analysis of incidence data must account for this for correct statistical inference. Less widely appreciated is the occurrence of a large number of zero counts (children without a malaria episode) in malaria cohort studies. Zero-inflated regression methods provide one means of addressing this issue, and also allow risk factors providing complete and partial protection to be disentangled. METHODS: Poisson, negative binomial (NB), zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) and zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) regression models were fitted to data from two cohort studies of malaria in children in Ghana. Multivariate models were used to understand risk factors for elevated incidence of malaria and for remaining malaria-free, and to estimate the fraction of the population not at risk of malaria. RESULTS: ZINB models, which account for both heterogeneity in individual risk and an unexposed sub-group within the population, provided the best fit to data in both cohorts. These approaches gave additional insight into the mechanism of factors influencing the incidence of malaria compared to simpler approaches, such as NB regression. For example, compared to urban areas, rural residence was found to both increase the incidence rate of malaria among exposed children, and increase the probability of being exposed. In Navrongo, 34% of urban residents were estimated to be at no risk, compared to 3% of rural residents. In Kintampo, 47% of urban residents and 13% of rural residents were estimated to be at no risk. CONCLUSION: These results illustrate the utility of zero-inflated regression methods for analysis of malaria cohort data that include a large number of zero counts. Specifically, these results suggest that interventions that reach mainly urban residents will have limited overall impact, since some urban residents are essentially at no risk, even in areas of high endemicity, such as in Ghana.

Intermittent preventive treatment against malaria: an update.

Intermittent preventive treatment (IPT) against malaria is a malaria control strategy aimed at reducing the burden of malaria in certain high-risk groups, namely pregnant women and children. Three strategies - IPT in pregnancy (IPTp), infants (IPTi) and children (IPTc) - are reviewed here focusing on the mechanism of action, choice of drugs available, controversies and future research. Drugs for IPT need to be co-formulated, long acting, safe and preferably administered as a single dose. There is no obvious replacement for sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine, the most commonly utilized drug combination. All strategies face similar problems of rising drug resistance, falling malaria transmission and a policy shift from controlling disease to malaria elimination and eradication. IPT is an accepted form of malaria control, but to date only IPTp has been adopted as policy.