Further decompensation in cirrhosis: Results of a large multicenter cohort study supporting Baveno VII statements.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The prognostic weight of further decompensation in cirrhosis is still unclear. We investigated the incidence of further decompensation and its effect on mortality in patients with cirrhosis. APPROACH AND RESULTS: Multicenter cohort study. The cumulative incidence of further decompensation (development of a second event or complication of a decompensating event) was assessed using competing risks analysis in 2028 patients. A 4-state model was built: first decompensation, further decompensation, liver transplant, and death. A cause-specific Cox model was used to assess the adjusted effect of further decompensation on mortality. Sensitivity analyses were performed for patients included before or after 1999. In a mean follow-up of 43 months, 1192 patients developed further decompensation and 649 died. Corresponding 5-year cumulative incidences were 52% and 35%, respectively. The cumulative incidences of death and liver transplant after further decompensation were 55% and 9.7%, respectively. The most common further decompensating event was ascites/complications of ascites. Five-year probabilities of state occupation were 24% alive with first decompensation, 21% alive with further decompensation, 7% alive with a liver transplant, 16% dead after first decompensation without further decompensation, 31% dead after further decompensation, and <1% dead after liver transplant. The HR for death after further decompensation, adjusted for known prognostic indicators, was 1.46 (95% CI: 1.23-1.71) ( p <0.001). The significant impact of further decompensation on survival was confirmed in patients included before or after 1999. CONCLUSIONS: In cirrhosis, further decompensation occurs in ~60% of patients, significantly increases mortality, and should be considered a more advanced stage of decompensated cirrhosis.

Associations between perfluoroalkyl substances and the severity of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease.

BACKGROUND: Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) has become the leading cause of chronic liver disease worldwide and the determinants driving its severity remain to be elucidated. Perfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) are synthetic chemical compounds. They are used in commonplace products and persistent in water, soil and the human body. In vitro and animal studies suggest a pathogenic role for PFAS in metabolic diseases such as NAFLD. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to evaluate the association between NAFLD severity and serum PFAS concentrations in humans. METHODS: One hundred biopsy-proven NAFLD patients were included with a well-balanced distribution between the different stages of severity: 25 patients with simple steatosis, 25 with early non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH and F0-F1 fibrosis), 33 with fibrotic NASH (NASH and F2-F3 fibrosis), and 17 with cirrhotic NASH (NASH and F4 fibrosis). Liver histological features were evaluated according to the NASH Clinical Research Network classification. Seventeen PFAS were measured by high-performance liquid chromatography coupled with tandem mass spectrometry on serum samples stored at -80 °C. RESULTS: The median age was 60 years, 61 % of patients were male, 46 % had diabetes and the median body mass index (BMI) was 32 kg/m2. Long-chain PFAS were associated with steatosis grade (p = 0.03). Among the nine PFAS detected in > 50 % of the patients, Perfluoro-n-heptanoic acid (PFHpA) showed significantly higher concentrations in grade 3 steatosis versus grade 1 (p = 0.02). Perfluoro-n-dodecanoic acid (PFDoA) concentrations were higher in patients with significant fibrosis (p = 0.04) and PFHpA in patients with advanced fibrosis (p = 0.02). The association between PFHpA and steatosis grade remained significant in multivariate analysis adjusted for age, gender, BMI, diabetes presence and dyslipidemia (p = 0.004). DISCUSSION: Our study showed a significant association between PFHpA and liver steatosis in NAFLD. According to data available in the literature, PFHpA could be implicated in liver steatosis through ß-oxidation and biosynthesis of fatty acids.

Individual and population screening of varices needing treatment by a simple, safe and accurate test.

BACKGROUND: Several tests have been developed to screen varices needing treatment (VNT) in different screening settings. We aimed to develop simple estimators to quantify VNT risk and spare endoscopy while missing <5% of VNT, adapted to different screenings in the main etiologies. METHODS: 2,368 patients with chronic liver disease were included. The main VNT predictors were platelets, prothrombin index (PI) and LSM. Their interactions led to score construction, LIP: (LSM*45)/(PI*platelets), and BLIP: BMI-adjusted LIP in NAFLD. Scores were categorized either for population (VNT sensitivity ≥95%) or individual (negative predictive value ≥95%) VNT screening. RESULTS: 1) Scores diagnosing VNT. AUROCs were, PLER: 0.767 Anticipate: 0.773 (p=0.059 vs previous), LIP: 0.779 (p=0.136), PLEASE: 0.789 (p=0.196). 2) Population screening performance was in increasing order (with missed VNT rate), Baveno6 criteria: 23.9% (2.5%), Anticipate: 24.5%, p=0.367 vs previous (3.3%), PLER: 27.3%, p<0.001 (3.6%), LIP: 33.4%, p<0.001 (4.2%), PLEASE: 35.2%, p=0.006 (3.6%). In NAFLD, LIP: 38.6%, BLIP: 40.8%, p=0.038. 3) Individual screening performance was, expanded Baveno6 criteria: 42.7%, LIP: 54.1%, p<0.001. In NAFLD, performance was, NAFLD-cirrhosis criteria: 66.7%, BLIP: 74.6%, p<0.001. CONCLUSION: LIP combined simplicity, performance and safety in each etiology. In NAFLD, BMI-adjusted LIP outperformed other tests.

Validation of a screening algorithm for hepatic fibrosis by Doppler ultrasound and elastography in a general population.

BACKGROUND: Early detection can prevent the initial stages of fibrosis from progressing to cirrhosis. PURPOSE: To evaluate an algorithm combining three echographic indicators and elastographic measurements to screen for hepatic fibrosis in an unselected population. MATERIAL AND METHODS: From May 2017 to June 2018, all patients with no history and no known chronic liver disease who were referred for an ultrasound (US) were prospectively included in eight hospitals. The indicators being sought were liver surface irregularity, demodulation of hepatic veins, and spleen length >110 mm. Patients presenting at least one of these underwent elastography measurements with virtual touch quantification (VTQ) or supersonic shear imaging (SSI). If elastography was positive, patients were referred to hepatologist for fibrosis evaluation. Reference standard was obtained by FibroMeterVCTE or biopsy. A FibroMeterVCTE result >0.384 indicated a "necessary referral" to a hepatologist. RESULTS: Of the 1501 patients included, 504 (33.6%) were positive for at least one US indicator. All of them underwent US elastography, with 85 being positive. Of the patients, 58 (3.6%) had a consultation with a liver specialist: 21 had positive FibroMeterVCTE and nine had an indication of biopsy for suspicion of fibrosis. This screening algorithm made it possible to diagnose 1.6% of patients in our population with unknown fibrosis. Of the patients, 50% referred to the liver specialist were "necessary referrals." CONCLUSION: Our study suggests that three simple US indicators with no systematic elastographic measurement could be applied in day-to-day practice to look for hepatic fibrosis in an unsuspected population allowing relevant referrals to a hepatologist.

Validation of the new 2021 EASL algorithm for the noninvasive diagnosis of advanced fibrosis in NAFLD.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The European Association for the Study of the Liver (EASL) has recently proposed an algorithm for the diagnosis of advanced liver fibrosis. We aimed to evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of this algorithm in nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). APPROACH AND RESULTS: One thousand fifty-one patients with NAFLD, liver biopsy, and four noninvasive tests (NITs; Fibrosis-4 [FIB4], vibration controlled transient elastography [VCTE], FibroMeter, Fibrotest) were included. The enhanced liver fibrosis (ELF) score was available in 396 patients. A cohort of 230 patients from primary care/diabetes clinics had FIB4, VCTE, and ELF. Compared with the performance of single NITs, agreement between two NITs (FIB4 and VCTE, VCTE and patented serum tests) increased specificity and positive predictive value by 20%, thus justifying the sequential use proposed in the EASL algorithm. The FIB4/VCTE/FibroMeter and FIB4/VCTE/Fibrotest algorithms performed similarly, providing 85% diagnostic accuracy and a liver biopsy requirement rate of only 10%. The FIB4/VCTE/ELF algorithm performed similarly in the subgroup where ELF was available. Simulations of algorithm accuracies at different prevalence showed that positive predictive values rapidly increased, reaching a plateau above 75% starting at 15% prevalence. Negative predictive values remained higher than 90% up to 25% prevalence. The rate of liver biopsy requirement remained stable, increasing by only 5% between low and high prevalence settings. When the EASL algorithm was applied in the primary care/diabetes clinic cohort, liver biopsy requirement was only 3%, and the agreement among the three steps provided 75% positive predictive value. CONCLUSIONS: Our study validates the algorithm proposed by the EASL in its latest 2021 guidelines for the diagnosis of advanced fibrosis in the setting of NAFLD.

Impact of Type 2 Diabetes on the Accuracy of Noninvasive Tests of Liver Fibrosis With Resulting Clinical Implications.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Noninvasive tests (NITs) of liver fibrosis have been suggested to be less accurate in type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). We aimed to compare the accuracy of 6 NITs between patients with or without T2DM, explain any differences, and adapt diagnostic algorithms for clinical practice accordingly. METHODS: We included 1051 patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease with liver biopsy, blood fibrosis tests (Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease Fibrosis Score, FIB4, Fibrotest, FibroMeter), vibration-controlled transient elastography (VCTE), and the combinatory elasto-blood test FibroMeterVCTE. The study endpoint was advanced fibrosis on liver biopsy. RESULTS: NIT areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve were significantly lower in patients with T2DM, mostly because of a decrease in specificity. For FIB4, this decrease in specificity was only related to the higher age of patients with T2DM enrolled. For Fibrotest, FibroMeter, and FibroMeterVCTE, the decrease in specificity was related to age but also to higher alpha2-macroglobulin level, which is known to increase in T2DM. Sensitivity was unaffected by T2DM, but it masked a doubled raw number of false negatives because of the 2-fold higher prevalence of advanced fibrosis in that setting. The sequential algorithm FIB4-vibration-controlled transient elastography had 90.3% accuracy in patients without T2DM vs 79.0% in those with (P < .001). Algorithms using first-line specialized tests maintained a low rate of false negatives and false positives in T2DM. CONCLUSIONS: The decrease in NIT accuracy observed in T2DM is partly biased by the different characteristics of the groups studied, but also linked to T2DM itself through modification of the levels of some NIT biomarkers. Specialized tests should be used first-line to diagnose advanced liver fibrosis in T2DM.

Comparison of screening strategies with two new tests to score and diagnose varices needing treatment.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: We aimed to improve non-invasive screening of varices needing treatment (VNT) and compare different screening strategies. METHODS: 2,290 patients with chronic liver disease were included in a retrospective study. Etiologies were: virus: 50.0%, NAFLD: 29.5%, alcohol: 20.5%, VNT: 14.9%. Test descriptors were performance (spared endoscopy) and safety (missed VNT). VNT tests were evaluated according to their safety levels either for individual screening (95% negative predictive value (NPV)), population screening (95% sensitivity) or undifferentiated screening (100% sensitivity/NPV) without missed VNT. The tests provided three categories: missed VNT <5%, VNT 100% specificity (new category), both sparing endoscopies, and intermediate (endoscopy required). RESULTS: Independent VNT predictors (etiology, sex, age, platelets, prothrombin index, albumin, ALT, liver stiffness) were included in two tests: VNT virus alcohol NAFLD test (VANT) and varice risk score (VARS). We report results of the whole population. Considering population screening, performances were, Baveno VI criteria: 24.1%, Anticipate: 24.7%, VariScreen: 35.3%, VANT: 40.2% (p<0.001 vs other tests). VANT spared 58.0% more endoscopies in the whole population than Baveno criteria in compensated advanced chronic liver diseases. Considering individual screening, VARS performance was, in all patients: 62.0% vs 42.9% for the expanded Baveno VI criteria (p<0.001), and, in NAFLD: 72.8% vs 65.1% for the NAFLD cirrhosis criteria (p<0.001). Considering undifferentiated screening, VARS performance was 12%. The VARS score estimated VNT probability from 0 to 100% (AUROC: 0.826). CONCLUSION: VANT and VARS spared from 12% (undifferentiated screening) to 40% (population screening) or 62% (individual screening) of endoscopies in main-etiology patients without ascites.

ABO blood group does not influence Child-Pugh A cirrhosis outcome: An observational study from CIRRAL and ANRS CO12 CIRVIR cohorts.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Non-O blood group promotes deep vein thrombosis and liver fibrosis in both general population and hepatitis C. We aimed to evaluate the influence of Non-O group on the outcome of Child-Pugh A cirrhotic patients. METHODS: We used two prospective cohorts of Child-Pugh A cirrhosis due to either alcohol or viral hepatitis. Primary end point was the cumulated incidence of 'Decompensation' at 3 years, defined as the occurrence of ascites , hydrothorax, encephalopathy, gastrointestinal bleeding related to portal hypertension, or bilirubin >45 µmol/L. Secondary end points were the cumulated incidences of (1) 'Disease Progression' including a « decompensation¼ or « the occurrence of one or more parameters ¼ among: prothrombin time (PT) <45%, albumin <28 g/L, Child-Pugh worsening (B or C vs A or B, C vs B), hepatorenal syndrome, and hepato-pulmonary syndrome, (2) other events such as non-malignant portal vein thrombosis (nmPVT), and (3) overall survival. RESULTS: Patients (n = 1789; 59.9% Non-O group; 40.1% group O) were followed during a median of 65.4 months. At 3 years cumulated incidence of Decompensation was 8.3% in Non-O group and 7.2% in group O (P = .27). Cumulated incidence of Disease Progression was 20.7% in Non-O group and 18.9% in group O (P = .26). Cumulated incidence of nmPVT was 2.7% in Non-O group and 2.8% in group O (P = .05). At 3 years overall survival was 92.4% in Non-O group and 93.4% in group O (P = 1). CONCLUSION: Non-O group does not influence disease outcome in Child-Pugh A cirrhotic patients. Clinicals trial number NCT03342170.

Clinical outcomes after treatment with direct antiviral agents: beyond the virological response in patients with previous HCV-related decompensated cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND: In HCV-infected patients with advanced liver disease, the direct antiviral agents-associated clinical benefits remain debated. We compared the clinical outcome of patients with a previous history of decompensated cirrhosis following treatment or not with direct antiviral agents from the French ANRS CO22 HEPATHER cohort. METHODS: We identified HCV patients who had experienced an episode of decompensated cirrhosis. Study outcomes were all-cause mortality, liver-related or non-liver-related deaths, hepatocellular carcinoma, liver transplantation. Secondary study outcomes were sustained virological response and its clinical benefits. RESULTS: 559 patients met the identification criteria, of which 483 received direct antiviral agents and 76 remained untreated after inclusion in the cohort. The median follow-up time was 39.7 (IQR: 22.7-51) months. After adjustment for multivariate analysis, exposure to direct antiviral agents was associated with a decrease in all-cause mortality (HR 0.45, 95% CI 0.24-0.84, p = 0.01) and non-liver-related death (HR 0.26, 95% CI 0.08-0.82, p = 0.02), and was not associated with liver-related death, decrease in hepatocellular carcinoma and need for liver transplantation. The sustained virological response was 88%. According to adjusted multivariable analysis, sustained virological response achievement was associated with a decrease in all-cause mortality (HR 0.29, 95% CI 0.15-0.54, p < 0.0001), liver-related mortality (HR 0.40, 95% CI 0.17-0.96, p = 0.04), non-liver-related mortality (HR 0.17, 95% CI 0.06-0.49, p = 0.001), liver transplantation (HR 0.17, 95% CI 0.05-0.54, p = 0.003), and hepatocellular carcinoma (HR 0.52, 95% CI 0.29-0.93, p = 0.03). CONCLUSION: Treatment with direct antiviral agents is associated with reduced risk for mortality. The sustained virological response was 88%. Thus, direct antiviral agents treatment should be considered for any patient with HCV-related decompensated cirrhosis. TRIAL REGISTRATION:  ClinicalTrials.gov registry number: NCT01953458.

Liver fibrosis staging by computed tomography: Prospective randomized multicentric evaluation of image analyses.

AIM: Liver fibrosis staging is essential. We prospectively evaluated the liver fibrosis staging performance of computed tomography (CT). METHODS: 70 hepato-gastroenterology clinicians were randomized into three stratified groups with different image analyses of radiological semiology, i.e., on raw images (group 1) and on expert-annotated (group 2) and computerized-morphometry-enriched (group 3) images. Radiological fibrosis staging based on seven simple descriptors into four stages equivalent to Metavir stages (F0/1, F2, F3, F4=cirrhosis) was determined at baseline and after image analyses in 10 patients with chronic liver diseases (two per F) concordant for four independent fibrosis stagings including Metavir. 23,800 CT images were analysed, providing 1400 fibrosis stagings. RESULTS: Fibrosis staging: overall (3 groups) accuracy (correct classification rate) was, baseline: 43%, post-analysis: 60% (p < 0.001) without significant progression in group 1 (6%, p = 0.207) contrary to groups 2 (34%, p < 0.001) and 3 (13%, p = 0.007). Cirrhosis diagnosis: overall accuracy was, baseline: 84%, post-analysis: 89% (p < 0.001) without significant progression in group 1 (0%, p = 1) contrary to groups 2 (8%, p = 0.009) and 3 (7%, p = 0.015). Baseline AUROCs were good (≥0.83) for marked fibrosis (F≥3 or cirrhosis) in all groups. Post-analysis AUROCs became excellent (≥0.89) in group 2 for all diagnostic targets (≥0.98 for F≥3 and cirrhosis) and in group 3 for cirrhosis. In post-analysis group 2, discrimination between all F was excellent (especially, F1 from F0) with an Obuchowski index at 0.87. Negative and positive predictive values for marked fibrosis were 98% and 95%, respectively. CONCLUSION: Simple CT descriptors accurately discriminate all Metavir liver fibrosis stages.

Predictive factors for hepatocellular carcinoma in chronic hepatitis B using structural equation modeling: a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The factors predicting hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) occurrence in chronic hepatitis B need to be precisely known to improve its detection. We identified pathways and individual predictive factors associated with HCC in the ANRS CO22 HEPATHER cohort. METHODS: The study analyzed HBV-infected patients recruited at 32 French expert hepatology centers from August 6, 2012, to December 31, 2015. We excluded patients with chronic HCV, HDV and a history of HCC, decompensated cirrhosis or liver transplantation. Structural equation models were developed to characterize the causal pathways leading to HCC occurrence. The association between clinical characteristics (age, gender, body-mass index, liver fibrosis, alcohol consumption, smoking status, diabetes, hypertension, dyslipidemia, alpha-fetoprotein, HBV DNA levels, antiviral therapy) and incident HCC was quantified. RESULTS: Among the 4489 patients included, 33 patients reported incident HCC. The median follow-up was 45.5 months. Age (ß = 0.18 by decade, 95% CI 0.14-0.23), male gender (ß = 0.23, 95% CI 0.18-0.29), metabolic syndrome (ß = 0.28, 95% CI 0.22-0.33), alcohol consumption (ß = 0.09, 95% CI 0.05-0.14) and HBV DNA (ß = 0.25, 95% CI 0.170.34) had a significant and direct effect on the occurrence of advanced liver fibrosis. Liver fibrosis (ß = 0.71, 95% CI 0.55-0.87) predicted, in turn, the occurrence of HCC. CONCLUSIONS: Liver fibrosis mediates the effects of age, gender, alcohol, metabolic syndrome and HBV DNA on the occurrence of HCC. Elderly men with chronic hepatitis B, risky alcohol use, advanced liver fibrosis, metabolic syndrome and high HBV DNA levels should be monitored closely to detect the development of HCC.

A predictive score of inadequate bowel preparation based on a self-administered questionnaire: PREPA-CO.

INTRODUCTION: Inadequate bowel preparation before colonoscopy has a 20-30% rate and impedes on the quality of the procedure. The aim of this study was to develop a predictive score of inadequate bowel preparation, using a patient questionnaire on potential risk factors. METHODS: In this single center study, consecutive patients with colonoscopy indication were enrolled. The primary outcome was inadequate bowel preparation defined by Boston Bowel Preparation Scale (BBPS) score <7 or a score ≤1 in any of the 3 colonic segments. RESULTS: A total of 561 patients were included. Inadequate bowel preparation was seen in 25.0% of cases. Seven risk factors were selected into the prediction model of inadequate bowel preparation: diabetes or obesity, irregular physical activity, cirrhosis, use of antidepressants or neuroleptics, use of opiate medication, history of surgery and history of inadequate bowel preparation. The risk score, named PREPA-CO, had an AUROC of 0.621, adequately predicted bowel cleanliness in 68.3% of cases, with a specificity of 75.8% and a negative predictive value of 80.8%. CONCLUSION: We developed a predictive score named "Prepa-Co", allowing the identification of patients at high risk of inadequate bowel preparation. In clinical practice, this score could help tailor the prescription of the preparation to the patient.

Cross-linkage between bacterial taxonomy and gene functions: a study of metagenome-assembled genomes of gut microbiota in adult non-alcoholic fatty liver disease.

BACKGROUND: The reconstruction of metagenome-assembled genomes (MAGs) has emerged as a powerful approach for combining the taxonomic and functional content of microbial populations. AIM: To use this new approach to highlight mechanisms linking gut microbiota to NAFLD severity METHODS: Stool samples were collected from 96 NAFLD patients on the day of liver biopsy. Shotgun DNA sequencing of the gut microbiota was performed on an Illumina HiSeq3000 system. Contigs were binned into MAGs according to their co-abundances and tetranucleotide frequencies using Metabat v.0.32.4. Predicted protein-coding genes were clustered in orthologous groups (OGs) with DIAMOND against the EggNOG v4.5 database. Liver biopsies were read in accordance with the NASH CRN classification. RESULTS: Fifty-four patients had NASH and 44 had significant fibrosis (F ≥ 2). Sequencing of DNA extracted from stools resulted in 13.8 + 3.2 million paired-end reads per sample. Of the 4,000 reconstructed MAGs, 220 in NASH patients, 192 in non-NASH patients, 203 in F ≥ 2 patients and 230 in F0-1 patients had > 70% completeness and < 5% contamination. Within these MAGs, 28 OGs were associated with NASH, 33 with significant fibrosis, and seven with both NASH and significant fibrosis. The study of MAGs showed associations between NAFLD severity and some gut bacteria with microbiota functions related to hydrogen sulfide production, citrate transport, hemicellulose degradation, aldehyde production and vitamin B12 synthesis. CONCLUSION: Using new metagenomics methods, our study unveils potential mechanisms by which certain bacteria from the gut microbiota could protect or contribute to the development of NASH and liver fibrosis in NAFLD.

Non-selective beta-blockers increase overall and liver mortality in alcoholic cirrhosis with MELD ≥ 12 over 5 years of follow-up.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Non-cardioselective beta-blocker (NSBB) effects on mortality in cirrhosis are controversial. We evaluated the impact of NSBBs on mortality according to liver severity and mortality cause. METHODS: Two hundred and fifty-eight patients with alcoholic cirrhosis were included in a retroprospective cohort: 129 NSBB-treated and 129 controls. The NSBB group had the following significant baseline differences: higher MELD, more frequent previous gastrointestinal bleeding, large oesophageal varices (OV) and lower heart rate. Propranolol dose was 160 mg/d in 81% of NSBB patients. RESULTS: (i) Liver function: during 5.3 ± 2.6 years of follow-up, MELD progression was higher in NSBB patients: 1 (-1-4) than in controls: 0 (-1-1) (P = .017). (ii) Overall survival: no significant differences were observed between NSBBs and controls (Kaplan-Meier curves: P = .291). In multivariate Cox analysis, baseline MELD interacted with NSBB (P = .011). Thus, the NSBB hazard ratio (HR) was 0.99 (0.50-1.98) in MELD < 12 vs 3.17 (1.19-8.42) in MELD ≥ 12. (iii) Liver survival: NSBB decreased liver survival (Kaplan-Meier: P = .031). In multivariate Cox analysis, baseline MELD interacted with NSBB (P < .001). The NSBB HR was 0.81 (0.30-2.19) in MELD < 12 vs 6.23 (1.94-20.0) in MELD ≥ 12. In competing risk multivariate analysis for liver mortality, the MELD-NSBB interaction was significant (P < .001): the NSBB HR was 1.02 (0.36-2.91) in MELD < 12 vs 9.24 (3.18-26.9) in MELD ≥ 12. 4) Non-liver survival: contrastingly, non-liver survival was increased by NSBBs, especially in MELD ≥ 12 (competing Kaplan-Meier: P = .044). These results were confirmed in propensity risk score (PRS)-matched patients. CONCLUSION: In alcoholic cirrhosis with rather high propranolol doses, overall and liver survival are significantly aggravated when MELD is ≥12.

Including Ratio of Platelets to Liver Stiffness Improves Accuracy of Screening for Esophageal Varices That Require Treatment.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Based on platelets and liver stiffness measurements, the Baveno VI criteria (B6C), the expanded B6C (EB6C), and the ANTICIPATE score can be used to rule out varices needing treatment (VNT) in patients with compensated chronic liver disease. We aimed to improve these tests by including data on the ratio of platelets to liver stiffness. METHODS: In a retrospective analysis of data from 10 study populations, collected from 2004 through 2018, we randomly assigned data from 2368 patients with chronic liver disease of different etiologies to a derivation population (n = 1579; 15.1% with VNT, 50.2% with viral hepatitis, 28.9% with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease, 20.8% with alcohol-associated liver disease, with model for end-stage liver disease scores of 9.5 ± 3.0, and 93.0% with liver stiffness measurements ≥10 kPa) or a validation population (n = 789). Test results were compared with results from a sequential algorithm (VariScreen). VariScreen incorporated data on platelets or liver stiffness measurements and then the ratio of platelets to liver stiffness measurement, adjusted for etiology, patient sex, and international normalized ratio. RESULTS: In the derivation population, endoscopies were spared for 23.9% of patients using the B6C (VNT missed in 2.9%), 24.3% of patients using the ANTICIPATE score (VNT missed in 4.6%), 34.5% of patients using VariScreen (VNT missed in 2.9%), and 41.9% of patients using the EB6C (VNT missed in 10.9%). Differences in spared endoscopy rates were significant (P ≤ .001), except for B6C vs ANTICIPATE and in missed VNT only for EB6C vs the others (P ≤ .009). VariScreen was the only safe test regardless of sex or etiology (missed VNT ≤5%). Moreover, VariScreen secured screening without missed VNT in patients with model for end-stage liver disease scores higher than 10. This overall strategy performed better than a selective strategy restricted to patients with compensated liver disease. Test performance and safety did not differ significantly among populations. CONCLUSIONS: In a retrospective study of data from 2368 patients with chronic liver disease, we found that the B6C are safe whereas the EB6C are unsafe, based on missed VNT. The VariScreen algorithm performed well in patients with chronic liver disease of any etiology or severity. It is the only test that safely rules out VNT and can be used in clinical practice.

Absence of impact of direct acting antivirals for hepatitis C virus on recurrent hepatocellular carcinoma tumor growth in the AFEF/ANRS CO22 Hepather cohort.

BACKGROUND: Although it has now been excluded that direct-acting antivirals (DAA) are associated with a significant risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in HCV-infected patients, a possible effect of DAA on tumor growth is still a subject of debate. We performed a blind comparison of the kinetics of HCC recurrence in patients after HCV treatment with or without DAA to evaluate the potential aggressiveness of HCC after DAA treatment. BASIC PROCEDURES: Thirty-nine HCV-infected patients from the AFEF/ANRS CO22 Hepather cohort who experienced HCC recurrence after so-called curative treatment were evaluated. Contrast-enhanced CT and/or MR images were read blindly 6 months before HCC recurrence and during the follow-up period. Seventeen patients who received DAA (DAA+) before HCC recurrence were compared to the 22 who did not receive (DAA-), according to the LiRads and mRECIST criteria. MAIN FINDINGS: There were 28 men and 11 women, median age 62 years old, 37 (95%) with cirrhosis. DAA+ patients had a lower median MELD score (8±2 vs. 10±4, P=0.0286) than DAA- patients. The median time to HCC recurrence (time from the date of curative treatment to the diagnosis of recurrence) was not different (20 vs. 18 months) (P=0.73) between the two groups. There was no difference between the 2 groups in the overall survival and/or transplantation-free survival (P=0.71) and for the mRECIST time to progression (P=0.25). CONCLUSION: This blinded analysis of HCC recurrence after HCC treatment does not support any negative impact of DAA therapy on the severity or progression of recurrent HCC.

Refining the Baveno VI elastography criteria for the definition of compensated advanced chronic liver disease.

BACKGROUND: The Baveno VI consensus proposed a dual liver stiffness (LS) by transient elastography threshold of <10 and >15 kPa for excluding and diagnosing compensated advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD) in the absence of other clinical signs. Herein, we aimed to validate these criteria in a real-world multicentre study. METHODS: We included 5,648 patients (mean age 51 ± 13 years, 53% males) from 10 European liver centres who had a liver biopsy and LS measurement within 6 months. We included patients with chronic hepatitis C (n = 2,913, 52%), non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD, n = 1,073, 19%), alcohol-related liver disease (ALD, n = 946, 17%) or chronic hepatitis B (n = 716, 13%). cACLD was defined as fibrosis stage ≥F3. RESULTS: Overall, 3,606 (66%) and 987 (18%) patients had LS <10 and >15 kPa, respectively, while cACLD was histologically confirmed in 1,772 (31%) patients. The cut-offs of <10 and >15 kPa showed 75% sensitivity and 96% specificity to exclude and diagnose cACLD, respectively. Examining the ROC curve, a more optimal dual cut-off at <7 and >12 kPa, with 91% sensitivity and 92% specificity for excluding and diagnosing cACLD (AUC 0.87; 95% CI 0.86-0.88; p <0.001) was derived. Specifically, for ALD and NAFLD, a low cut-off of 8 kPa can be used (sensitivity=93%). For the unclassified patients, we derived a risk model based on common patient characteristics with better discrimination than LS alone (AUC 0.74 vs. 0.69; p <0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Instead of the Baveno VI proposed <10 and >15 kPa dual cut-offs, we found that the <8 kPa (or <7 kPa for viral hepatitis) and >12 kPa dual cut-offs have better diagnostic accuracy in cACLD. LAY SUMMARY: The term compensated advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD) was introduced in 2015 to describe the spectrum of advanced fibrosis and cirrhosis in asymptomatic patients. It was also suggested that cACLD could be diagnosed or ruled out based on specific liver stiffness values, which can be non-invasively measured by transient elastography. Herein, we assessed the suggested cut-off values and identified alternative values that offered better overall accuracy for diagnosing or ruling out cACLD.

Personalized surveillance for hepatocellular carcinoma in cirrhosis - using machine learning adapted to HCV status.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Refining hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) surveillance programs requires improved individual risk prediction. Thus, we aimed to develop algorithms based on machine learning approaches to predict the risk of HCC more accurately in patients with HCV-related cirrhosis, according to their virological status. METHODS: Patients with compensated biopsy-proven HCV-related cirrhosis from the French ANRS CO12 CirVir cohort were included in a semi-annual HCC surveillance program. Three prognostic models for HCC occurrence were built, using (i) Fine-Gray regression as a benchmark, (ii) single decision tree (DT), and (iii) random survival forest for competing risks survival (RSF). Model performance was evaluated from C-indexes validated externally in the ANRS CO22 Hepather cohort (n = 668 enrolled between 08/2012-01/2014). RESULTS: Out of 836 patients analyzed, 156 (19%) developed HCC and 434 (52%) achieved sustained virological response (SVR) (median follow-up 63 months). Fine-Gray regression models identified 6 independent predictors of HCC occurrence in patients before SVR (past excessive alcohol intake, genotype 1, elevated AFP and GGT, low platelet count and albuminemia) and 3 in patients after SVR (elevated AST, low platelet count and shorter prothrombin time). DT analysis confirmed these associations but revealed more complex interactions, yielding 8 patient groups with varying cancer risks and predictors depending on SVR achievement. On RSF analysis, the most important predictors of HCC varied by SVR status (non-SVR: platelet count, GGT, AFP and albuminemia; SVR: prothrombin time, ALT, age and platelet count). Externally validated C-indexes before/after SVR were 0.64/0.64 [Fine-Gray], 0.60/62 [DT] and 0.71/0.70 [RSF]. CONCLUSIONS: Risk factors for hepatocarcinogenesis differ according to SVR status. Machine learning algorithms can refine HCC risk assessment by revealing complex interactions between cancer predictors. Such approaches could be used to develop more cost-effective tailored surveillance programs. LAY SUMMARY: Patients with HCV-related cirrhosis must be included in liver cancer surveillance programs, which rely on ultrasound examination every 6 months. Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) screening is hampered by sensitivity issues, leading to late cancer diagnoses in a substantial number of patients. Refining surveillance periodicity and modality using more sophisticated imaging techniques such as MRI may only be cost-effective in patients with the highest HCC incidence. Herein, we demonstrate how machine learning algorithms (i.e. data-driven mathematical models to make predictions or decisions), can refine individualized risk prediction.