Clinical prediction models for bronchopulmonary dysplasia: a systematic review and external validation study.

BACKGROUND: Bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD) is a common complication of preterm birth. Very different models using clinical parameters at an early postnatal age to predict BPD have been developed with little extensive quantitative validation. The objective of this study is to review and validate clinical prediction models for BPD. METHODS: We searched the main electronic databases and abstracts from annual meetings. The STROBE instrument was used to assess the methodological quality. External validation of the retrieved models was performed using an individual patient dataset of 3229 patients at risk for BPD. Receiver operating characteristic curves were used to assess discrimination for each model by calculating the area under the curve (AUC). Calibration was assessed for the best discriminating models by visually comparing predicted and observed BPD probabilities. RESULTS: We identified 26 clinical prediction models for BPD. Although the STROBE instrument judged the quality from moderate to excellent, only four models utilised external validation and none presented calibration of the predictive value. For 19 prediction models with variables matched to our dataset, the AUCs ranged from 0.50 to 0.76 for the outcome BPD. Only two of the five best discriminating models showed good calibration. CONCLUSIONS: External validation demonstrates that, except for two promising models, most existing clinical prediction models are poor to moderate predictors for BPD. To improve the predictive accuracy and identify preterm infants for future intervention studies aiming to reduce the risk of BPD, additional variables are required. Subsequently, that model should be externally validated using a proper impact analysis before its clinical implementation.

Neonatal and infant outcome in boys and girls born very prematurely.

INTRODUCTION: Although important new strategies have improved outcomes for very preterm infants, males have greater mortality/morbidity than females. We investigated whether the excess of adverse later effects in males operated through poorer neonatal profile or if there was an intrinsic male effect. RESULTS: Male sex was significantly associated with higher birth weight, death or oxygen dependency (72% vs. 61%, boys vs. girls), hospital stay (97 vs. 86 days), pulmonary hemorrhage (15% vs. 10%), postnatal steroids (37% vs. 21%), and major cranial ultrasound abnormality (20% vs. 12%). Differences remained significant after adjusting for birth weight and gestation. At follow-up, disability, cognitive delay, and use of inhalers remained significant after further adjustment. DISCUSSION: We conclude that in very preterm infants, male sex is an important risk factor for poor neonatal outcome and poor neurological and respiratory outcome at follow-up. The increased risks at follow-up are not explained by neonatal factors and lend support to the concept of male vulnerability following preterm birth. METHODS: Data came from the United Kingdom Oscillation Study, with 797 infants (428 boys) born at 23-28 wk gestational age. Thirteen maternal factors, 8 infant factors, 11 acute outcomes, and neurological and respiratory outcomes at follow-up were analyzed. Follow-up outcomes were adjusted for birth and neonatal factors sequentially to explore mechanisms for differences by sex.

Elective high-frequency oscillatory versus conventional ventilation in preterm infants: a systematic review and meta-analysis of individual patients' data.

BACKGROUND: Population and study design heterogeneity has confounded previous meta-analyses, leading to uncertainty about effectiveness and safety of elective high-frequency oscillatory ventilation (HFOV) in preterm infants. We assessed effectiveness of elective HFOV versus conventional ventilation in this group. METHODS: We did a systematic review and meta-analysis of individual patients' data from 3229 participants in ten randomised controlled trials, with the primary outcomes of death or bronchopulmonary dysplasia at 36 weeks' postmenstrual age, death or severe adverse neurological event, or any of these outcomes. FINDINGS: For infants ventilated with HFOV, the relative risk of death or bronchopulmonary dysplasia at 36 weeks' postmenstrual age was 0.95 (95% CI 0.88-1.03), of death or severe adverse neurological event 1.00 (0.88-1.13), or any of these outcomes 0.98 (0.91-1.05). No subgroup of infants (eg, gestational age, birthweight for gestation, initial lung disease severity, or exposure to antenatal corticosteroids) benefited more or less from HFOV. Ventilator type or ventilation strategy did not change the overall treatment effect. INTERPRETATION: HFOV seems equally effective to conventional ventilation in preterm infants. Our results do not support selection of preterm infants for HFOV on the basis of gestational age, birthweight for gestation, initial lung disease severity, or exposure to antenatal corticosteroids. FUNDING: Nestlé Belgium, Belgian Red Cross, and Dräger International.

Comparing methods of analysing datasets with small clusters: case studies using four paediatric datasets.

Studies of prematurely born infants contain a relatively large percentage of multiple births, so the resulting data have a hierarchical structure with small clusters of size 1, 2 or 3. Ignoring the clustering may lead to incorrect inferences. The aim of this study was to compare statistical methods which can be used to analyse such data: generalised estimating equations, multilevel models, multiple linear regression and logistic regression. Four datasets which differed in total size and in percentage of multiple births (n = 254, multiple 18%; n = 176, multiple 9%; n = 10 098, multiple 3%; n = 1585, multiple 8%) were analysed. With the continuous outcome, two-level models produced similar results in the larger dataset, while generalised least squares multilevel modelling (ML GLS 'xtreg' in Stata) and maximum likelihood multilevel modelling (ML MLE 'xtmixed' in Stata) produced divergent estimates using the smaller dataset. For the dichotomous outcome, most methods, except generalised least squares multilevel modelling (ML GH 'xtlogit' in Stata) gave similar odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals within datasets. For the continuous outcome, our results suggest using multilevel modelling. We conclude that generalised least squares multilevel modelling (ML GLS 'xtreg' in Stata) and maximum likelihood multilevel modelling (ML MLE 'xtmixed' in Stata) should be used with caution when the dataset is small. Where the outcome is dichotomous and there is a relatively large percentage of non-independent data, it is recommended that these are accounted for in analyses using logistic regression with adjusted standard errors or multilevel modelling. If, however, the dataset has a small percentage of clusters greater than size 1 (e.g. a population dataset of children where there are few multiples) there appears to be less need to adjust for clustering.

Very prematurely born infants wheezing at follow-up: lung function and risk factors.

OBJECTIVES: To determine whether abnormalities of lung volume and/or airway function were associated with wheeze at follow-up in infants born very prematurely and to identify risk factors for wheeze. DESIGN: Lung function data obtained at 1 year of age were collated from two cohorts of infants recruited into the UKOS and an RSV study, respectively. SETTING: Infant pulmonary function laboratory. PATIENTS: 111 infants (mean gestational age 26.3 (SD 1.6) weeks). INTERVENTIONS: Lung function measurements at 1 year of age corrected for gestational age at birth. Diary cards and respiratory questionnaires were completed to document wheeze. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Functional residual capacity (FRC(pleth) and FRC(He)), airways resistance (R(aw)), FRC(He):FRC(pleth) and tidal breathing parameters (T(PTEF):T(E)). RESULTS: The 60 infants who wheezed at follow-up had significantly lower mean FRC(He), FRC(He):FRC(pleth) and T(PTEF):T(E), but higher mean R(aw) than the 51 without wheeze. Regression analysis demonstrated that gestational age, length at assessment, family history of atopy and a low FRC(He):FRC(pleth) were significantly associated with wheeze. CONCLUSIONS: Wheeze at follow-up in very prematurely born infants is associated with gas trapping, suggesting abnormalities of the small airways.

Factors affecting vocabulary acquisition at age 2 in children born between 23 and 28 weeks' gestation.

Language development is often slower in preterm children compared with their term peers. We investigated factors associated with vocabulary acquisition at 2 years in a cohort of children born at 28 weeks' gestation or less. For children entered into the United Kingdom Oscillation Study, language development was evaluated by using the MacArthur-Bates Communicative Development Inventories score, completed by parents as part of a developmental questionnaire. The effect of demographic, neonatal, socioeconomic factors, growth, and disability were investigated using multifactorial random effects modelling. Questionnaires were returned by 288 participants (148 males, 140 females). The mean number of words vocalized was 42 (SD 29). Multifactorial analysis showed only four factors were significantly associated with vocabulary acquisition. These were: (1) level of disability (mean words: no disability, 45; other disability, 38; severe disability, 30 [severe disability is defined as at least one extreme response in one of the following clinical domains: neuromotor, vision, hearing, communication, or other physical disabilities]; 95% confidence interval [CI] for the difference between no and severe disability 7- 23); (2) sex (39 males, 44 females; 95% CI 0.4-11); (3) length of hospital stay (lower quartile, 47; upper quartile, 38; 95% CI -12 to -4); and (4) weight SD score at 12 months (lower quartile, 39; upper quartile, 44; 95% CI 1-9). There was no significant association between gestational age and vocabulary after multifactorial analysis. There was no significant effect of any socioeconomic factor on vocabulary acquisition. We conclude that clinical factors, particularly indicators of severe morbidity, dominate the correlates of vocabulary acquisition at age 2 in children born very preterm.

Pulmonary function at follow-up of very preterm infants from the United Kingdom oscillation study.

Prematurely born infants supported by conventional ventilation (CV) frequently have abnormal pulmonary function when assessed in childhood. The aim of this study was to test the hypothesis that infants who were randomly assigned to high-frequency oscillatory ventilation would have superior pulmonary function at follow-up compared with those who received CV (UK Oscillation Study). Infants from 12 trial centers were recruited for pulmonary function testing at a single center. Seventy-six infants, of a mean gestational age 26.4 weeks, were studied after sedation with chloral hydrate at between 11 and 14 months of age, corrected for prematurity. Infants assigned to CV had similar pulmonary function compared with those assigned to high-frequency oscillatory ventilation, with mean (SD) results as follows: functional residual capacity measured by whole-body plethysmography, 26.9 (6.3) versus 26.5 (6.4) ml/kg; functional residual capacity measured by helium dilution, 24.1 (5.4) versus 23.5 (5.7) ml/kg; inspiratory airway resistance, 3.3 (1.3) versus 3.4 (1.6) kPa. second. L; expiratory airway resistance, 4.4 (2.8) versus 4.1 (2.5) kPa. second. L; respiratory rate, 31.2 (6.0) versus 33.9 (8.0) breaths/minute. We conclude that early use of high-frequency oscillatory ventilation in very preterm infants appears to offer no advantage over CV in terms of pulmonary function at follow-up.

High-frequency oscillatory ventilation for the prevention of chronic lung disease of prematurity.

BACKGROUND: There remains uncertainty concerning the safety and efficacy of high-frequency oscillatory ventilation as compared with those of conventional ventilation for the respiratory support of very preterm infants. We conducted a multicenter trial to determine whether early intervention with high-frequency oscillatory ventilation reduced mortality and the incidence of chronic lung disease among newborns with a gestational age of 28 weeks or less. METHODS: We randomly assigned preterm infants with a gestational age of 23 to 28 weeks to either conventional ventilation or high-frequency oscillatory ventilation within one hour after birth. Randomization was stratified according to center and gestational age (23 to 25 weeks or 26 to 28 weeks). RESULTS: A total of 400 infants were assigned to high-frequency oscillatory ventilation, and 397 were assigned to conventional ventilation. The composite primary outcome (death or chronic lung disease, diagnosed at 36 weeks of postmenstrual age) occurred in 66 percent of the infants assigned to receive high-frequency oscillatory ventilation and 68 percent of those in the conventional-ventilation group (relative risk in the group assigned to high-frequency oscillatory ventilation, 0.98; 95 percent confidence interval, 0.89 to 1.08). Similar proportions of infants died or had chronic lung disease in each gestational-age group. In both treatment groups treatment failure occurred in 10 percent of infants (relative risk in the group assigned to high-frequency oscillatory ventilation, 0.99; 95 percent confidence interval, 0.66 to 1.50). There were no significant differences between the groups in a range of other secondary outcome measures, including serious brain injury and air leak. CONCLUSIONS: The results obtained with high-frequency oscillatory ventilation and conventional ventilation do not differ significantly in the early treatment of respiratory disease in very preterm infants. Assessment of long-term effects will require additional follow-up.