Evaluación y comparación del desempeño de cinco modelos de predicción de mortalidad intrahospitalaria en pacientes con falla cardiaca aguda / Evaluation and comparison of the performance of five prediction models of in-hospital mortality in patients with acute heart failure

Resumen Objetivo: Los modelos de predicción de mortalidad intrahospitalaria en pacientes con falla cardiaca aguda pueden ser útiles para la toma de decisiones, situación que hace necesario evaluar la capacidad predictiva y de discriminación en la población colombiana. Método: Estudio de cohorte retrospectiva de pacientes con falla cardiaca aguda. Se evaluó el desempeño de los modelos de predicción de mortalidad intrahospitalaria ADHERE, OPTIMIZE-HF, GWTG-HF y PROTECT, durante los años 2013 a 2015. Se realizó el cálculo de la puntuación para cada uno de los modelos y se determinó la capacidad de predicción y discriminación. Resultados: Se incluyeron 776 pacientes con una edad promedio de 71.5 años (desviación estándar: 14.3), el 56% hombres, con fracción de eyección del ventrículo izquierdo del 39%. La mortalidad global fue del 6.1%. El área bajo la curva para ADHERE fue de 0.56 (intervalo de confianza del 95% [IC95%]: 0.49-0.64), para EHMRG de 0.63 (IC95%: 0.55-0.71], para GWTG-HF de 0.63 (IC95%: 0.55-0.70), para OPTIMIZE de 0.65 (IC95%: 0.56-0.74) y para PROTECT de 0.69 (IC95%: 0.60-0.77). Conclusiones: Los modelos de predicción de muerte intrahospitalaria en pacientes con falla cardiaca aguda muestran pobre desempeño y baja capacidad de predicción y discriminación en población colombiana, lo cual sugiere el desarrollo de escalas de predicción de mortalidad en pacientes con falla cardiaca aguda específicas para dicha población.

Abstract Objective: In-hospital mortality prediction models on acute heart failure can be beneficial for decision-making, a situation necessary to evaluate, our goal was to compare predictive and discriminatory capacity of Colombian population. Method: A retrospective cohort study in patients with acute heart failure was conducted. The following performance evaluation of in-hospital mortality prediction models were conducted from 2013 to 2015: ADHERE, EHMRG, OPTIMIZE-HF, GWTG-HF and PROTECT. Data was calculated for each model, prediction and discriminatory capacity was evaluated. Results: A sample of 776 patients, 56% male, with an average age of 71.5 (standard deviation: 14.3) and with left ventricle ejection fraction rate of 39% was studied. Global mortality was of 6.1%. The area under curve for ADHERE was of 0.56 (95% confidence interval [95% CI]: 0.49-0.64), for EHMRG 0.63 (95% CI: 0.55-0.71), for GWTG-HF 0.63 (95% CI: 0.55-0.70), for OPTIMIZE 0.65 (95% CI: 0.56-0.74) and for PROTECT 0.69 (95% CI: 0.60-0.77). Conclusions: The models for predicting in-hospital death in patients with acute heart failure show poor performance, predictability and discrimination in the Colombian population, suggesting the development of mortality prediction scales in patients with acute heart failure specific to our population.

Profiles of cardiovascular biomarkers according to severity stages of Chagas cardiomyopathy.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: Up 30 to 40% of Chagas patients exhibit cardiomyopathy with different degrees of cardiac involvement. Biomarkers may help in differentiation of the severity of Chagas cardiomyopathy (CCM). This study sought to examine the diagnostic value of a panel of biomarkers to distinguish the severity of (CCM). METHODS: 100 patients with CCM were included in this cross-sectional study. Based on electrocardiogram and echocardiogram, CCM patients were classified in three stages according to disease's severity. Levels of high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T (Hs-cTnT), N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), galectin-3 (Gal-3), neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (NGAL), soluble ST2 (sST2) and cystatin-c (Cys-c) were measured. Logistic regression models were used to assess the association between levels of natural log-transformed values of biomarkers and stages C/D versus B. We also calculated the area under curve (AUC) for each of the models. RESULTS: In models adjusted for age, sex, body mass index, kidney function and medication use, increased levels of NT-proBNP (per 1 unit natural log-transformed values, odds ratio (OR)=5.55; 95CI%:1.65-18.72) and Hs-cTnT (per 1 unit natural log-transformed values, OR=7.11; 95CI%:1.41-35.90) showed significant association with the severity of CCM per 1 unit increase of biomarkers. The accuracy of NT-proBNP and Hs-cTnT for diagnosis of the severity of CCM was high: AUC of 0.968 and 0.956 respectively. No significant difference was found in the AUC between NT-proBNP and Hs-cTnT. No association was found between Gal-3, NGAL, sST2 and Cys-C and severity of CCM. CONCLUSIONS: NT-proBNP and Hs-cTnT have both same diagnostic value in distinguishing severity of CCM.

Tuberculosis peritoneal simulando cáncer de ovario / Peritoneal tuberculosis simulating ovarian cancer

La tuberculosis (TB) peritoneal es una forma de TB abdominal y/o pélvica. Esta entidad en ocasiones puede simular clínicamente un carcinoma ovárico, lo cual sumado a un aumento sérico del CA 125, puede hacer del diagnóstico diferencial entre estas dos enfermedades, un reto difícil para el clínico. Se presenta el caso de una mujer de 49 años de edad con síntomas, signos, hallazgos imagenológicos y de laboratorio sugestivos de carcinoma ovárico, en quien además se documentan factores de riesgo para el desarrollo de TB. Finalmente, gracias a la realización de estudios complementarios y a un adecuado análisis de los datos se llega al diagnóstico de TB peritoneal. El presente caso busca concientizar a la comunidad médica sobre la importancia de considerar la TB peritoneal como diagnóstico diferencial en pacientes con sospecha de carcinoma ovárico, permitiendo así realizar un acertado y oportuno diagnóstico evitando la exposición a procedimientos quirúrgicos riesgosos e innecesarios.

Peritoneal tuberculosis (TB) is a form of peritoneal and / or pelvic TB. This entity can sometimes clinically simulate an ovarian carcinoma, which added to an incresed serum CA 125 can make the differential diagnosis between these two diseases, a difficult challenge for the clinician. The case of a 49 years old woman with symptoms, signs, and imaging and laboratory findings suggestive of ovarian carcinoma in whom also risk factors for the development of TB are documented, is presented. Finally, thanks to the complementary studies and adequate analysis of the data, the diagnosis of peritoneal TB is made. This case aims to raise awareness of the medical community about the importance of considering the peritoneal TB as a differential diagnosis in patients with suspected ovarian carcinoma, allowing to perform an accurate and timely diagnosis avoiding exposure to risky and unnecessary surgical procedures.