Exploring How Patients Are Supported to Use Online Services in Primary Care in England Through "Digital Facilitation": Survey Study.

BACKGROUND: Health service policy in many jurisdictions is driving greater investment into digital primary care services. While some patients and practices may benefit, there are concerns that not all are able or wish to access primary care services online. "Digital facilitation" is the "range of processes, procedures, and personnel seeking to support patients in their uptake and use of online services" and may address such concerns. OBJECTIVE: As part of a multimethod research program, we undertook surveys of practice staff and patients to gain insight into the support being offered by practices and explore patients' experiences of this support. METHODS: General practices from 4 regions of England were sent a questionnaire exploring the modes of digital facilitation offered, the personnel involved in its delivery, and views on the motivations and drivers for providing support. Moreover, 12,822 patients registered with 62 general practices (predominantly those providing practice survey responses) were sent a questionnaire exploring their experiences of any support offered by their practice to use online services. RESULTS: Almost one-third of practices (156/500, 31.2%) responded to the practice survey, with most reporting using passive modes of digital facilitation (eg, display, leaflets, and SMS text messages) and few using active modes (eg, offering tablets or computers or using practice champions). However, 90.9% (130/143) reported providing ad hoc support. Practices agreed that it was the responsibility of both the practice (105/144, 72.9%) and the wider National Health Service (118/143, 82.5%) to support patients in using online services and that providing such support benefited the practice (126/144, 87.5%) and their patients (132/144, 91.7%). Nearly a quarter of the patients (3051/12,822, 23.8%) responded to the patient survey, with few (522/3051, 17.11% or less) reporting awareness of any modes of digital facilitation apart from text messages and emails (1205/3051, 39.5%) and only 13.36% (392/2935) reporting receiving support to use online services. Adjusted logistic regression analyses showed that older patients had a lower likelihood of 4 outcomes: being aware of, or of using, digital facilitation efforts, or being told about or being helped to use online services (all P<.05), particularly with regard to being helped to use online services (adjusted odds ratio for patients aged 85 years versus those aged 55-64 years: 0.08, 95% CI 0.02-0.36). However, ethnic minority participants or those for whom their first language was not English had positive associations with these outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: General practices recognize that patients would benefit from support to access online services. However, the support provided is often passive or ad hoc, and patients were seldom aware of digital facilitation efforts that their practice provided. There is potential to increase engagement with online primary care services by providing more support for all patients, particularly to provide targeted support for older patients.

Uncertainty in REDD+ carbon accounting: a survey of experts involved in REDD+ reporting.

BACKGROUND: Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation (REDD+) is a program established under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) to reduce carbon emissions from forests in developing countries. REDD+ uses an incentive-based approach whereby participating countries are paid to reduce forest carbon loss and increase carbon storage. Country-level carbon accounting is challenging, and estimates of uncertainty in emission reductions are increasingly required in REDD+ reports. This requirement is hard to meet if countries lack the necessary resources, tools, and capabilities. Some REDD+ programs adjust their payments for the uncertainty reported, which presents a perverse incentive because uncertainties are larger if more sources of uncertainty are reported. We surveyed people involved in REDD+ reporting to assess current capacities and barriers to improving estimates of uncertainty. RESULTS: Representatives from 27 countries (44% of REDD+ countries at the time of survey implementation) responded to the survey. Nearly all respondents thought it important to include uncertainty in REDD+ reports, but most felt that the uncertainty reporting by their countries was inadequate. Our independent assessment of reports by these countries to the UNFCCC supported this opinion: Most countries reported uncertainty in activity data (91%) but not in emission factors (4-14%). Few countries use more advanced approaches to estimate uncertainty, such as Monte Carlo and Bayesian techniques, and many respondents indicated that they lack expertise, knowledge, or technical assistance. Other barriers include lack of financial resources and appropriate data. Despite these limitations, nearly all respondents indicated a strong desire to improve estimates of uncertainty in REDD+ reports. CONCLUSIONS: The survey indicated that people involved in REDD+ reporting think it highly important to improve estimates of uncertainty in forest carbon accounting. To meet this challenge, it is essential to understand the obstacles countries face in quantifying uncertainty so we can identify where best to allocate efforts and funds. Investments in training and resources are clearly needed to better quantify uncertainty and would likely have successful outcomes given the strong desire for improvement. Tracking the efficacy of programs implemented to improve estimates of uncertainty would be useful for making further refinements.

Recruitment and retention of staff in rural dispensing primary care practice: a qualitative inquiry.

BACKGROUND: Rural primary care practices struggle to employ and retain staff, and existing literature regarding recruitment and retention is focused on doctors. Shortages of qualified staff affect practice functioning, quality of care, and patient experience. Dispensing of medications is a rural service valued by patients. However, little is known about how dispensing services are valued by practices or related to the recruitment and retention of staff. AIM: To understand barriers to, and facilitators of, joining and remaining in rural dispensing practice employment, and to explore how rural practices value dispensing services. DESIGN & SETTING: Qualitative inquiry in rural primary care practices across England. METHOD: Semi-structured interviews with rural dispensing staff were undertaken, audio-recorded, transcribed verbatim, and analysed using framework analysis. RESULTS: In total, 17 staff from 12 practices across England were interviewed between June and November 2021. Reasons for taking up employment in rural dispensing practices included perceived career autonomy, development opportunities, and preference for working and living in a rural setting. Skills required for dispensers' roles balanced against low wages were a barrier to recruitment. For nurses, barriers included perceived lack of knowledge around their role in rural care. Revenue from dispensing, opportunities for staff development, job satisfaction, and positive work environments drove retention of staff. However, negative perceptions of rural practice, travel difficulties, lack of applicants, and insufficient remuneration for roles were barriers to retention. CONCLUSION: Barriers to, and facilitators of, rural primary care recruitment and retention vary by role, and include factors unique to the rural setting.

Investigating Clinical Excellence and Impact Awards (INCEA): a qualitative study into how current assessors and other key stakeholders define and score excellence.

OBJECTIVES: The National Clinical Excellence Awards (NCEAs) in England and Wales were designed, as a form of performance-related pay, to reward high-performing senior doctors and dentists. To inform future scoring of applications and subsequent schemes, we sought to understand how current assessors and other stakeholders would define excellence, differentiate between levels of excellence and ensure unbiased definitions and scoring. DESIGN: Semistructured qualitative interview study. PARTICIPANTS: 25 key informants were identified from Advisory Committee on Clinical Excellence Awards subcommittees, and relevant professional organisations in England and Wales. Informants were purposively sampled to achieve variety in gender and ethnicity. FINDINGS: Participants reported that NCEAs had a role in incentivising doctors to strive for excellence. They were consistent in identifying 'clinical excellence' as involving making an exceptional difference to patients and the National Health Service, and in going over and above the expectations associated with the doctor's job plan. Informants who were assessors reported: encountering challenges with the current scoring scheme when seeking to ensure a fair assessment; recognising tendencies to score more or less leniently; and the potential for conscious or unconscious bias in assessments. Particular groups of doctors, including women, doctors in some specialties and settings, doctors from minority ethnic groups, and doctors who work less than full time, were described as being less likely to self-nominate, lacking support in making applications or lacking motivation to apply on account of a perceived likelihood of not being successful. Practical suggestions were made for improving support and training for applicants and assessors. CONCLUSIONS: Participants in this qualitative study identified specific concerns in respect of the current approaches adopted in applying for and in assessing NCEAs, pointing to the importance of equity of opportunity to apply, the need for regular training for assessors, and to improved support for applicants and potential applicants.

Protocol for a pragmatic cluster randomised controlled trial assessing the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of Electronic RIsk-assessment for CAncer for patients in general practice (ERICA).

INTRODUCTION: The UK has worse cancer outcomes than most comparable countries, with a large contribution attributed to diagnostic delay. Electronic risk assessment tools (eRATs) have been developed to identify primary care patients with a ≥2% risk of cancer using features recorded in the electronic record. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: This is a pragmatic cluster randomised controlled trial in English primary care. Individual general practices will be randomised in a 1:1 ratio to intervention (provision of eRATs for six common cancer sites) or to usual care. The primary outcome is cancer stage at diagnosis, dichotomised to stage 1 or 2 (early) or stage 3 or 4 (advanced) for these six cancers, assessed from National Cancer Registry data. Secondary outcomes include stage at diagnosis for a further six cancers without eRATs, use of urgent referral cancer pathways, total practice cancer diagnoses, routes to cancer diagnosis and 30-day and 1-year cancer survival. Economic and process evaluations will be performed along with service delivery modelling. The primary analysis explores the proportion of patients with early-stage cancer at diagnosis. The sample size calculation used an OR of 0.8 for a cancer being diagnosed at an advanced stage in the intervention arm compared with the control arm, equating to an absolute reduction of 4.8% as an incidence-weighted figure across the six cancers. This requires 530 practices overall, with the intervention active from April 2022 for 2 years. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The trial has approval from London City and East Research Ethics Committee, reference number 19/LO/0615; protocol version 5.0, 9 May 2022. It is sponsored by the University of Exeter. Dissemination will be by journal publication, conferences, use of appropriate social media and direct sharing with cancer policymakers. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN22560297.

Workload and workflow implications associated with the use of electronic clinical decision support tools used by health professionals in general practice: a scoping review.

BACKGROUND: Electronic clinical decision support tools (eCDS) are increasingly available to assist General Practitioners (GP) with the diagnosis and management of a range of health conditions. It is unclear whether the use of eCDS tools has an impact on GP workload. This scoping review aimed to identify the available evidence on the use of eCDS tools by health professionals in general practice in relation to their impact on workload and workflow. METHODS: A scoping review was carried out using the Arksey and O'Malley methodological framework. The search strategy was developed iteratively, with three main aspects: general practice/primary care contexts, risk assessment/decision support tools, and workload-related factors. Three databases were searched in 2019, and updated in 2021, covering articles published since 2009: Medline (Ovid), HMIC (Ovid) and Web of Science (TR). Double screening was completed by two reviewers, and data extracted from included articles were analysed. RESULTS: The search resulted in 5,594 references, leading to 95 full articles, referring to 87 studies, after screening. Of these, 36 studies were based in the USA, 21 in the UK and 11 in Australia. A further 18 originated from Canada or Europe, with the remaining studies conducted in New Zealand, South Africa and Malaysia. Studies examined the use of eCDS tools and reported some findings related to their impact on workload, including on consultation duration. Most studies were qualitative and exploratory in nature, reporting health professionals' subjective perceptions of consultation duration as opposed to objectively-measured time spent using tools or consultation durations. Other workload-related findings included impacts on cognitive workload, "workflow" and dialogue with patients, and clinicians' experience of "alert fatigue". CONCLUSIONS: The published literature on the impact of eCDS tools in general practice showed that limited efforts have focused on investigating the impact of such tools on workload and workflow. To gain an understanding of this area, further research, including quantitative measurement of consultation durations, would be useful to inform the future design and implementation of eCDS tools.

Higher Arm Versus Lower Arm Systolic Blood Pressure and Cardiovascular Outcomes: a Meta-Analysis of Individual Participant Data From the INTERPRESS-IPD Collaboration.

BACKGROUND: Guidelines recommend measuring blood pressure (BP) in both arms, adopting the higher arm readings for diagnosis and management. Data to support this recommendation are lacking. We evaluated associations of higher and lower arm systolic BPs with diagnostic and treatment thresholds, and prognosis in hypertension, using data from the Inter-arm Blood Pressure Difference-Individual Participant Data Collaboration. METHODS: One-stage multivariable Cox regression models, stratified by study, were used to examine associations of higher or lower reading arm BPs with cardiovascular mortality, all-cause mortality, and cardiovascular events, in individual participant data meta-analyses pooled from 23 cohorts. Cardiovascular events were modelled for Framingham and atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk scores. Model fit was compared throughout using Akaike information criteria. Proportions reclassified across guideline recommended intervention thresholds were also compared. RESULTS: We analyzed 53 172 participants: mean age 60 years; 48% female. Higher arm BP, compared with lower arm, reclassified 12% of participants at either 130 or 140 mm Hg systolic BP thresholds (both P<0.001). Higher arm BP models fitted better for all-cause mortality, cardiovascular mortality, and cardiovascular events (all P<0.001). Higher arm BP models better predicted cardiovascular events with Framingham and atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk scores (both P<0.001) and reclassified 4.6% and 3.5% of participants respectively to higher risk categories compared with lower arm BPs). CONCLUSIONS: Using BP from higher instead of lower reading arms reclassified 12% of people over thresholds used to diagnose hypertension. All prediction models performed better when using the higher arm BP. Both arms should be measured for accurate diagnosis and management of hypertension. REGISTRATION: URL: https://www. CLINICALTRIALS: gov; Unique identifier: CRD42015031227.

Inter-arm blood pressure difference and cardiovascular risk estimation in primary care: a pilot study.

BACKGROUND: Systolic inter-arm differences (IAD) in blood pressure (BP) contribute independently to cardiovascular risk estimates. This can be used to refine predicted risk and guide personalised interventions. AIM: To model the effect of accounting for IAD in cardiovascular risk estimation in a primary care population free of pre-existing cardiovascular disease. DESIGN & SETTING: A cross-sectional analysis of people aged 40-75 years attending NHS Health Checks in one general practice in England. METHOD: Simultaneous bilateral BP measurements were made during health checks. QRISK2, atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD), and Framingham cardiovascular risk scores were calculated before and after adjustment for IAD using previously published hazard ratios. Reclassification across guideline-recommended intervention thresholds was analysed. RESULTS: Data for 334 participants were analysed. Mean (standard deviation) QRISK2, ASCVD, and Framingham scores were 8.0 (6.9), 6.9 (6.5), and 10.7 (8.1), respectively, rising to 8.9 (7.7), 7.1 (6.7), and 11.2 (8.5) after adjustment for IAD. Thirteen (3.9%) participants were reclassified from below to above the 10% QRISK2 threshold, three (0.9%) for the ASCVD 10% threshold, and nine (2.7%) for the Framingham 15% threshold. CONCLUSION: Knowledge of IAD can be used to refine cardiovascular risk estimates in primary care. By accounting for IAD, recommendations of interventions for primary prevention of cardiovascular disease can be personalised and treatment offered to those at greater than average risk. When assessing elevated clinic BP readings, both arms should be measured to allow fuller estimation of cardiovascular risk.

Shared decision making between older people with multimorbidity and GPs: a qualitative study.

BACKGROUND: Shared decision making (SDM), utilising the expertise of both patient and clinician, is a key feature of good-quality patient care. Multimorbidity can complicate SDM, yet few studies have explored this dynamic for older patients with multimorbidity in general practice. AIM: To explore factors influencing SDM from the perspectives of older patients with multimorbidity and GPs, to inform improvements in personalised care. DESIGN AND SETTING: Qualitative study. General practices (rural and urban) in Devon, England. METHOD: Four focus groups: two with patients (aged ≥65 years with multimorbidity) and two with GPs. Data were coded inductively by applying thematic analysis. RESULTS: Patient acknowledgement of clinician medicolegal vulnerability in the context of multimorbidity, and their recognition of this as a barrier to SDM, is a new finding. Medicolegal vulnerability was a unifying theme for other reported barriers to SDM. These included expectations for GPs to follow clinical guidelines, challenges encountered in applying guidelines and in communicating clinical uncertainty, and limited clinician self-efficacy for SDM. Increasing consultation duration and improving continuity were viewed as facilitators. CONCLUSION: Clinician perceptions of medicolegal vulnerability are recognised by both patients and GPs as a barrier to SDM and should be addressed to optimise delivery of personalised care. Greater awareness of multimorbidity guidelines is needed. Educating clinicians in the communication of uncertainty should be a core component of SDM training. The incorrect perception that most clinicians already effectively facilitate SDM should be addressed to improve the uptake of personalised care interventions.

The underlying structure of the English Cancer Patient Experience Survey: Factor analysis to support survey reporting and design.

BACKGROUND: The English Cancer Patient Experience Survey (CPES) is a regularly conducted survey measuring the experience of cancer patients. We studied the survey's underlying structure using factor analysis to identify potential for improvements in reporting or questionnaire design. METHODS: Cancer Patient Experience Survey 2015 respondents (n = 71,186, response rate 66%) were split into two random subgroups. Using exploratory factor analysis (EFA) on the first subgroup, we identified the survey's latent structure. EFA was then applied to 12 sets of items. A first ("core") set was formed by questions that applied to all participants. The subsequent sets contained the "core set" plus questions corresponding to specific care pathways/patient groups. We used confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) on the second data subgroup for cross-validation. RESULTS: The EFA suggested that five latent factors underlie the survey's core questions. Analysis on the remaining 11 care pathway/patient group items also indicated the same five latent factors, although additional factors were present for questions applicable to patients with an overnight stay or those accessing specialist nursing. The five factors models had an excellent fit (comparative fit index = 0.95, root mean square error of approximation = 0.045 for core set of questions). Items loading on each factor generally corresponded to a specific section or subsection of the questionnaire. CFA findings were concordant with the EFA patterns. CONCLUSION: The findings suggest five coherent underlying sub-constructs relating to different aspects of cancer health care. The findings support the construction of evidence-based composite indicators for different domains of experience and provide options for survey re-design.

Comparing the Attainment of the Patient's Medical Home Model across Regions in Three Canadian Provinces: A Cross-Sectional Study.

BACKGROUND: The aim of this work was to show the feasibility of providing a comprehensive portrait of regional primary care performance. METHODS: The TRANSFORMATION study used a mixed-methods concurrent study design where we analyzed survey data and case studies. Data were collected in British Columbia, Ontario and Nova Scotia. Patient's Medical Home (PMH) pillar scores were created by calculating mean clinic-level scores across regions. Scores and qualitative themes were compared. RESULTS: Participation included 86 practices (n = 1,929 patients; n = 117 clinicians). Regions had differential attainment towards PMH orientation with respect to infrastructure; community adaptiveness and accountability; and patient and family partnered care. The lowest PMH attainment for all regions were observed in connected care; accessible care; measurement, continuous quality improvement and research; and training, education and continuing professional development. CONCLUSIONS: Comprehensive performance reporting that draws on multiple data sources in primary care is possible. Regional portraits highlighting many of the key pillars of a PMH approach to primary care show that despite differences in policy contexts, achieving a PMH remains elusive.

BCG vaccination to reduce the impact of COVID-19 in healthcare workers: Protocol for a randomised controlled trial (BRACE trial).

INTRODUCTION: BCG vaccination modulates immune responses to unrelated pathogens. This off-target effect could reduce the impact of emerging pathogens. As a readily available, inexpensive intervention that has a well-established safety profile, BCG is a good candidate for protecting healthcare workers (HCWs) and other vulnerable groups against COVID-19. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: This international multicentre phase III randomised controlled trial aims to determine if BCG vaccination reduces the incidence of symptomatic and severe COVID-19 at 6 months (co-primary outcomes) compared with no BCG vaccination. We plan to randomise 10 078 HCWs from Australia, The Netherlands, Spain, the UK and Brazil in a 1:1 ratio to BCG vaccination or no BCG (control group). The participants will be followed for 1 year with questionnaires and collection of blood samples. For any episode of illness, clinical details will be collected daily, and the participant will be tested for SARS-CoV-2 infection. The secondary objectives are to determine if BCG vaccination reduces the rate, incidence, and severity of any febrile or respiratory illness (including SARS-CoV-2), as well as work absenteeism. The safety of BCG vaccination in HCWs will also be evaluated. Immunological analyses will assess changes in the immune system following vaccination, and identify factors associated with susceptibility to or protection against SARS-CoV-2 and other infections. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethical and governance approval will be obtained from participating sites. Results will be published in peer-reviewed open-access journals. The final cleaned and locked database will be deposited in a data sharing repository archiving system. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT04327206.

Simulation of the effects of forest harvesting under changing climate to inform long-term sustainable forest management using a biogeochemical model.

Process ecosystem models are useful tools to provide insight on complex, dynamic ecological systems, and their response to disturbances. The biogeochemical model PnET-BGC was modified and tested using field observations from an experimentally whole-tree harvested northern hardwood watershed (W5) at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest (HBEF), New Hampshire, USA. In this study, the confirmed model was used as a heuristic tool to investigate long-term changes in hydrology, biomass accumulation, and soil solution and stream water chemistry for three different watershed cutting intensities (40%, 60%, 80%) and three rotation lengths (30, 60, 90 years) under both constant (current climate) and changing (MIROC5-RCP4.5) future climate scenarios and atmospheric CO2 through the year 2200. For the no future cutting scenario, total ecosystem stored carbon (i.e., sum of aboveground biomass, woody debris and soil) reached a maximum value of 207 t C ha-1 under constant climate but increased to 452 t C ha-1 under changing climate in 2200 due to a CO2 fertilization effect. Harvesting of trees decreased total ecosystem stored carbon between 7 and 36% for constant climate and 7-60% under changing climate, respectively, with greater reductions for shorter logging rotation lengths and greater watershed cutting intensities. Harvesting under climate change resulted in noticeable losses of soil organic matter (12-56%) coinciding with loss of soil nutrients primarily due to higher rates of soil mineralization associated with increases in temperature, compared with constant climate conditions (3-22%). Cumulative stream leaching of nitrate under climate change (181-513 kg N ha-1) exceeded constant climate values (139-391 kg N ha-1) for the various cutting regimes. Under both climate conditions the model projected greater sensitivity to varying the length of cutting period than cutting intensities. Hypothetical model simulations highlight future challenges in maintaining long-term productivity of managed forests under changing climate due to a potential for a deterioration of soil fertility.

Medication adherence and clinical outcomes in dispensing and non-dispensing practices: a cross-sectional analysis.

BACKGROUND: Most patients obtain medications from pharmacies by prescription, but rural general practices can dispense medications. The clinical implications of this difference in drug delivery are unknown. This study hypothesised that dispensing status may be associated with better medication adherence. This could impact intermediate clinical outcomes dependent on medication adherence in, for example, hypertension or diabetes. AIM: To investigate whether dispensing status is associated with differences in achievement of Quality and Outcomes Framework (QOF) indicators that rely on medication adherence. DESIGN AND SETTING: Cross-sectional analysis of QOF data for 7392 general practices in England. METHOD: QOF data from 1 April 2016 to 31 March 2017 linked to dispensing status for general practices with list sizes ≥1000 in England were analysed. QOF indicators were categorised according to whether their achievement depended on a record of prescribing only, medication adherence, or neither. Differences were estimated between dispensing and non-dispensing practices using mixed-effects logistic regression, adjusting for practice population age, sex, deprivation, list size, single-handed status, and rurality. RESULTS: Data existed for 7392 practices; 1014 (13.7%) could dispense. Achievement was better in dispensing practices than in non-dispensing practices for seven of nine QOF indicators dependent on adherence, including blood pressure targets. Only one of ten indicators dependent on prescribing but not adherence displayed better achievement; indicators unrelated to prescribing showed a trend towards higher achievement by dispensing practices. CONCLUSION: Dispensing practices may achieve better clinical outcomes than prescribing practices. Further work is required to explore underlying mechanisms for these observations and to directly study medication adherence rates.

Associations Between Systolic Interarm Differences in Blood Pressure and Cardiovascular Disease Outcomes and Mortality: Individual Participant Data Meta-Analysis, Development and Validation of a Prognostic Algorithm: The INTERPRESS-IPD Collaboration.

Systolic interarm differences in blood pressure have been associated with all-cause mortality and cardiovascular disease. We undertook individual participant data meta-analyses to (1) quantify independent associations of systolic interarm difference with mortality and cardiovascular events; (2) develop and validate prognostic models incorporating interarm difference, and (3) determine whether interarm difference remains associated with risk after adjustment for common cardiovascular risk scores. We searched for studies recording bilateral blood pressure and outcomes, established agreements with collaborating authors, and created a single international dataset: the Inter-arm Blood Pressure Difference - Individual Participant Data (INTERPRESS-IPD) Collaboration. Data were merged from 24 studies (53 827 participants). Systolic interarm difference was associated with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality: continuous hazard ratios 1.05 (95% CI, 1.02-1.08) and 1.06 (95% CI, 1.02-1.11), respectively, per 5 mm Hg systolic interarm difference. Hazard ratios for all-cause mortality increased with interarm difference magnitude from a ≥5 mm Hg threshold (hazard ratio, 1.07 [95% CI, 1.01-1.14]). Systolic interarm differences per 5 mm Hg were associated with cardiovascular events in people without preexisting disease, after adjustment for Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease (hazard ratio, 1.04 [95% CI, 1.00-1.08]), Framingham (hazard ratio, 1.04 [95% CI, 1.01-1.08]), or QRISK cardiovascular disease risk algorithm version 2 (QRISK2) (hazard ratio, 1.12 [95% CI, 1.06-1.18]) cardiovascular risk scores. Our findings confirm that systolic interarm difference is associated with increased all-cause mortality, cardiovascular mortality, and cardiovascular events. Blood pressure should be measured in both arms during cardiovascular assessment. A systolic interarm difference of 10 mm Hg is proposed as the upper limit of normal. Registration: URL: https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/display_record.php?ID=CRD42015031227.

Estimating retention benchmarks for salvage logging to protect biodiversity.

Forests are increasingly affected by natural disturbances. Subsequent salvage logging, a widespread management practice conducted predominantly to recover economic capital, produces further disturbance and impacts biodiversity worldwide. Hence, naturally disturbed forests are among the most threatened habitats in the world, with consequences for their associated biodiversity. However, there are no evidence-based benchmarks for the proportion of area of naturally disturbed forests to be excluded from salvage logging to conserve biodiversity. We apply a mixed rarefaction/extrapolation approach to a global multi-taxa dataset from disturbed forests, including birds, plants, insects and fungi, to close this gap. We find that 75 ± 7% (mean ± SD) of a naturally disturbed area of a forest needs to be left unlogged to maintain 90% richness of its unique species, whereas retaining 50% of a naturally disturbed forest unlogged maintains 73 ± 12% of its unique species richness. These values do not change with the time elapsed since disturbance but vary considerably among taxonomic groups.

Experimental approach and initial forest response to a simulated ice storm experiment in a northern hardwood forest.

Ice storms are a type of extreme winter weather event common to north temperate and boreal forests worldwide. Recent climate modelling studies suggest that these storms may become more frequent and severe under a changing climate. Compared to other types of storm events, relatively little is known about the direct and indirect impacts of these storms on forests, as naturally occurring ice storms are inherently difficult to study. Here we describe a novel experimental approach used to create a suite of ice storms in a mature hardwood forest in New Hampshire, USA. The experiment included five ice storm intensities (0, 6.4, 12.7 and 19.1 mm radial ice accretion) applied in a single year, and one ice storm intensity (12.7 mm) applied in two consecutive years. Results demonstrate the feasibility of this approach for creating experimental ice storms, quantify the increase in fine and coarse woody debris mass and nutrients transferred from the forest canopy to the soil under the different icing conditions, and show an increase in the damage to the forest canopy with increasing icing that evolves over time. In this forest, little damage occurred below 6.4 mm radial ice accretion, moderate damage occurred with up to 12.7 mm of accretion, and significant branch breakage and canopy damage occurred with 19.1 mm of ice. The icing in consecutive years demonstrated an interactive effect of ice storm frequency and severity such that some branches damaged in the first year of icing appeared to remain in the canopy and then fall to the ground in the second year of icing. These results have implications for National Weather Service ice storm warning levels, as they provide a quantitative assessment of ice-load related inputs of forest debris that will be useful to municipalities creating response plans for current and future ice storms.

Quantifying uncertainty in annual runoff due to missing data.

Long-term streamflow datasets inevitably include gaps, which must be filled to allow estimates of runoff and ultimately catchment water budgets. Uncertainty introduced by filling gaps in discharge records is rarely, if ever, reported. We characterized the uncertainty due to streamflow gaps in a reference watershed at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest (HBEF) from 1996 to 2009 by simulating artificial gaps of varying duration and flow rate, with the objective of quantifying their contribution to uncertainty in annual streamflow. Gaps were filled using an ensemble of regressions relating discharge from nearby streams, and the predicted flow was compared to the actual flow. Differences between the predicted and actual runoff increased with both gap length and flow rate, averaging 2.8% of the runoff during the gap. At the HBEF, the sum of gaps averaged 22 days per year, with the lowest and highest annual uncertainties due to gaps ranging from 1.5 mm (95% confidence interval surrounding mean runoff) to 21.1 mm. As a percentage of annual runoff, uncertainty due to gap filling ranged from 0.2-2.1%, depending on the year. Uncertainty in annual runoff due to gaps was small at the HBEF, where infilling models are based on multiple similar catchments in close proximity to the catchment of interest. The method demonstrated here can be used to quantify uncertainty due to gaps in any long-term streamflow data set, regardless of the gap-filling model applied.