A system dynamics approach to model heat stress accumulation in dairy cows during a heatwave event.

Climate change is expected to increase the number of heat wave events, leading to prolonged exposures to severe heat stress (HS) and the corresponding adverse effects on dairy cattle productivity. Modelling dairy cattle productivity under HS conditions is complicated because it requires comprehending the complexity, non-linearity, dynamicity, and delays in animal response. In this paper, we applied the System Dynamics methodology to understand the dynamics of animal response and system delays of observed milk yield (MY) in dairy cows under HS. Data on MY and temperature-humidity index were collected from a dairy cattle farm. Model development involved: (i) articulation of the problem, identification of the feedback mechanisms, and development of the dynamic hypothesis through a causal loop diagram; (ii) formulation of the quantitative model through a stock-and-flow structure; (iii) calibration of the model parameters; and (iv) analysis of results for individual cows. The model was successively evaluated with 20 cows in the case study farm, and the relevant parameters of their HS response were quantified with calibration. According to the evaluation of the results, the proposed model structure was able to capture the effect of HS for 11 cows with high accuracy with mean absolute percent error <5%, concordance correlation coefficient >0.6, and R2 > 0.6, except for two cows (ID #13 and #20) with R2 less than 0.6, implying that the rest of the nine animals do not exhibit heat-sensitive behaviour for the defined parameter space. The presented HS model considered non-linear feedback mechanisms as an attempt to help farmers and decision makers quantify the animal response to HS, predict MY under HS conditions, and distinguish the heat-sensitive cows from heat-tolerant cows at the farm level.

Investigating the Origin of Mycobacterium chimaera Contamination in Heater-Cooler Units: Integrated Analysis with Fourier Transform Infrared Spectroscopy and Whole-Genome Sequencing.

Mycobacterium chimaera is ubiquitously spread in the environment, including factory and hospital water systems. Invasive cases of M. chimaera infection have been associated with aerosols produced by the use of heater-cooler units (HCU) during cardiac surgery. The aim of this study was to evaluate for the first time the performance of IR-Biotyper system on a large number of M. chimaera isolates collected from longitudinal environmental HCUs samples and water sources from hospitals located in three Italian provinces. In addition, IR-Biotyper results were compared with whole-genome sequencing (WGS) analysis, the reference method for molecular epidemiology, to investigate the origin of M. chimaera contamination of HCUs. From November 2018 to May 2021, 417 water samples from 52 HCUs (Stockert 3T, n = 41 and HCU40, n = 11) and 23 hospital taps (used to fill the HCU tanks) were concentrated, decontaminated, and cultured for M. chimaera. Positive cultures (n = 53) were purified by agar plate subcultures and analyzed by IR-Biotyper platform and Ion Torrent sequencing system. IR-Biotyper spectra results were analyzed using a statistical approach of dimensionality reduction by linear discriminant analysis (LDA), generating three separate clusters of M. chimaera, ascribable to each hospital. Furthermore, the only M. chimaera-positive sample from tap water clustered with the isolates from the HCUs of the same hospital, confirming that the plumbing system could represent the source of HCU contamination and, potentially, of patient infection. According to the genome-based phylogenies and following the classification proposed by van Ingen and collaborators in 2017, three distinct M. chimaera groups appear to have contaminated the HCU water systems: subgroups 1.1, 2.1, and branch 2. Most of the strains isolated from HCUs at the same hospital share a highly similar genetic profile. The nonrandom distribution obtained with WGS and IR-Biotyper leads to the hypothesis that M. chimaera subtypes circulating in the local plumbing colonize HCUs through the absolute filter, in addition with the current hypothesis that contamination occurs at the HCU production site. This opens the possibility that other medical equipment, such as endoscope reprocessing device or hemodialysis systems, could be contaminated by M. chimaera. IMPORTANCE Our manuscript focuses on interventions to reduce waterborne disease transmission, improve sanitation, and control infection. Sanitary water can be contaminated by nontuberculous Mycobacteria, including M. chimaera, a causative agent of invasive infections in immunocompromised patients. We found highly similar genetic and phenotypic profiles of M. chimaera isolated from heater-cooler units (HCU) used during surgery to thermo-regulate patients' body temperature, and from the same hospital tap water. These results lead to the hypothesis that M. chimaera subtypes circulating in the local plumbing colonize HCUs through the absolute filter, adding to the current hypothesis that contamination occurs at the HCU production site. In addition, this opens the possibility that other medical equipment using sanitized water, such as endoscope reprocessing devices or hemodialysis systems, could be contaminated by nontuberculous Mycobacteria, suggesting the need for environmental surveillance and associated control measures.

Assessment of feed and economic efficiency of dairy farms based on multivariate aggregation of partial indicators measured on field.

Many of the metrics used to evaluate farm performance are only partial indicators of farm operations, which are assumed to be best predictors of the whole farm efficiency. The main objective of this work was to identify aggregated multiple indexes of profitability using common partial indicators that are routinely available from individual farms to better support the short-term decision-making processes of the cattle-feeding process. Data were collected from face-to-face interviews with farmers from 90 dairy farms in Italy and used to calculate 16 partial indicators that covered almost all indicators currently used to target feeding and economic efficiency in dairy farms. These partial indicators described feed efficiency, energy utilization, feed costs, milk-to-feed price ratio, income over feed costs, income equal feed cost, money-corrected milk, and bargaining power for feed costs. Calculations of feeding costs were based on lactating cows or the whole herd, and income from milk deliveries was determined with or without considering the milk quality payment. Multivariate factor analysis was then applied to the 16 partial indicators to determine simplified and latent structures. The results indicated that 5 factors explained 70% of the variability. Each of the original partial indicator was associated with all factors in different proportions, as indicated by loading scores from the multivariate factor analysis. Based on the loading scores, we labeled these 5 factors as "economic efficiency," "energy utilization," "break-even point," "milk-to-feed price," and "bargaining power of the farm," in decreasing order of explained communality. The first 3 factors shared 83% of the total communality. Feed efficiency was similarly associated with factor 1 (53% loading) and factor 2 (66% loading). Only factor 4 was significantly affected by farm location. Milk production and herd size had significant effects on factor 1 and factor 2. Our multivariate approach eliminated the problem of multicollinearity of partial indicators, providing simple and effective descriptions of farm feeding economics. The proposed method allowed the evaluation, benchmarking, and ranking of dairy herd performance at the level of single farms and at territorial level with high opportunity to be used or replicated in other areas.

Review: Managing sheep and goats for sustainable high yield production.

This review discusses the most relevant aspects of nutritional, reproductive and health management, the three pillars of flock efficiency, production and sustainability regarding the intensification of production in sheep and goats. In small ruminants, reproductive management is dependent on seasonality, which in turn depends on breed and latitude. Nutrition represents the major cost for flocks and greatly affects their health, the quality of their products and their environmental impact. High-yielding sheep and goats have very high requirements and dietary intake, requiring nutrient-dense diets and sophisticated nutritional management that should always consider the strong interrelationships among nutrition, immunity, health, reproduction, housing and farm management. The reproductive pattern is to a great extent assisted by out-of-season breeding, facilitating genetic improvement schemes, and more recently by advanced reproductive technologies. Heath management aims to control or eradicate economic and zoonotic diseases, ensuring animal health and welfare, food safety and low ecosystem and environmental impacts in relation to chemical residues and pathogen circulation. In highly producing systems, nutrition, genetic and hazard factors assume a complex interrelationship. Genomic and management improvement research and technological innovation are the keys to sustain sheep and goat production in the future.

Metabolic and hormonal control of energy utilization and partitioning from early to mid lactation in Sarda ewes and Saanen goats.

In a recent study, we observed that starch-rich diets used in mid lactation induced lower milk production persistency and higher body fat accumulation in dairy ewes compared with dairy goats. Because these species differences could be linked to hormonal mechanisms that drive energy partitioning, in the same experiment, we explored the evolution of metabolic and hormonal status during lactation to test this hypothesis. Twenty mature Sarda dairy ewes and 20 mature Saanen goats [15-134 ± 11 d in milk (DIM), mean ± SD] were compared simultaneously. In early lactation, each species was allocated to one dietary treatment: high-starch diet [HS: 20.4% starch, on dry matter (DM) basis], whereas from 92 ± 11 DIM, each species was allocated to 1 of 2 dietary treatments: HS (20.0% starch, on DM basis) and low-starch (LS: 7.8% starch, on DM basis) diets. Blood samples were collected in the morning to analyze glucose, nonesterified fatty acids (NEFA), growth hormone (GH), insulin, and insulin-like growth factor I (IGF-I). Data were analyzed using the PROC MIXED procedure of SAS with repeated measurements (SAS Version 9.0). The HS and LS diets applied in mid lactation did not affect metabolic status of the animal within species; thus, only a comparison between species was carried out. From early to mid lactation, plasma glucose concentration was higher in ewes than in goats (54.57 vs. 48.35 ± 1.18 mg/dL), whereas plasma NEFA concentration was greater in goats than in ewes (0.31 vs. 0.25 ± 0.03 mmol/L). Goats had higher plasma GH concentration and lower plasma insulin content than ewes (4.78 vs. 1.31 ng/mL ± 0.47; 0.11 vs. 0.26 µg/L ± 0.02). Plasma IGF-I concentration did not vary between species. The comparison of metabolic and hormonal status of lactating Sarda dairy ewes and Saanen goats, carried out by studying simultaneously the 2 species in the same stage of lactation and experimental conditions, suggests that the higher insulin and glucose concentration observed in Sarda ewes explains why they partitioned more energy toward body reserves than to the mammary gland, especially in mid lactation. This can justify the negative effect of high-starch diets in mid-lactating Sarda ewes. Conversely, the highest GH and NEFA concentration observed in Saanen goats explain why they partitioned more energy of starch diets toward the mammary gland than to body reserves and justify the positive effect of high-starch diet in mid lactation. Together, these different responses contribute to explain why specialized dairy goats, such as the Saanen breed, have a higher milk production persistency than specialized dairy sheep breeds, such as the Sarda.

Prenatal exposure to different diets influences programming of glucose and insulin metabolism in dairy ewes.

Nutrition in fetal and postnatal life can influence the development of several biological systems, with permanent effects in adult life. The aim of this work was to investigate in dairy sheep whether diets rich in starch or fiber during intrauterine life (75 d before lambing) and postnatal life (from weaning to first pregnancy; growth phase) program glucose and insulin metabolism in the female offspring during their first pregnancy. Starting from intrauterine life, 20 nulliparous Sarda ewes were exposed to 4 dietary regimens (n = 5 per group) based on different dietary carbohydrates during their intrauterine life and their subsequent growth phase: (1) the fiber (FI) diet during both intrauterine and growth life, (2) the starch (ST) diet during both intrauterine and growth life, (3) the FI diet in intrauterine life followed by the ST diet in the growth phase, and (4) the ST diet in intrauterine life followed by the FI diet in the growth phase. After the end of the growth phase, all growing ewes were fed the same diet and naturally mated. When ewes were pregnant, on average at 124 ± 2 d of gestation they were challenged with an intravenous glucose tolerance test, and peripheral concentrations of glucose and insulin were determined. Basal insulin concentrations were higher in ewes exposed to the ST diet (0.97 µg/L) than in ewes exposed to the FI diet (0.52 µg/L) in intrauterine life. After glucose infusion, glucose and insulin concentrations were not affected by intrauterine diet. Insulin resistance, determined by the homeostasis model assessment, was affected by the intrauterine × growth phases interaction. Insulin sensitivity, assessed by the quantitative insulin check index, was lower in ewes exposed to the ST diet than in those exposed to the FI diet in intrauterine life (ST = 0.28; FI = 0.30). Diet in growth life had no effect on glucose and insulin metabolism. In conclusion, starchy diets offered during intrauterine life but not during postnatal life increased basal insulin level and lowered insulin sensitivity during the first pregnancy. Nutritional strategies of metabolic programming should consider that exposure to starchy diets in late fetal life might favor the programming of dietary nutrient partitioning toward organs with high requirements, such as the gravid uterus or the mammary gland.

Efficacy and safety of 5-hydroxytryptophan on depression and apathy in Parkinson's disease: a preliminary finding.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Several studies have indicated that altered serotonergic neurotransmission may contribute to non-motor features commonly associated with Parkinson's disease (PD) such as apathy and depression. 5-hydroxytryptophan (5-HTP) is the intermediate metabolite of L-tryptophan in the production of serotonin. To date, there has been inconsistent research on the use of 5-HTP in PD. The purpose of this study was to compare the effects of 5-HTP with those of placebo on apathy and depressive symptoms in patients with PD. METHODS: A single-center, randomized, double-blind placebo-controlled cross-over trial was employed; 25 individuals were subsequently enrolled into the study. Patients received placebo and 50 mg of 5-HTP daily over a period of 4 weeks. For the assessment of efficacy on depressive and apathy symptoms the Beck Depression Inventory-II (BDI-II), Hamilton Depression Rating Scale (HDRS) and Apathy Scale (AS) were respectively administered at screening, baseline and weeks 4, 8, 12 and 16. Primary efficacy outcomes were the comparison of 5-HTP to placebo in mean change from baseline to weeks 4, 8, 12 and 16 in total score on the AS, BDI-II and HDRS. RESULTS: Repeated-measures analysis revealed a significant improvement of depressive symptoms during the 50-mg 5-HTP treatment compared with placebo as assessed by the HDRS. No effect of 5-HTP was seen on apathy symptoms assessed by the AS. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides preliminary evidence of clinical benefit of 5-HTP for treating depressive symptoms in PD. Larger studies with a longer treatment duration are needed to corroborate these early findings.

Multidrug-Resistant Tuberculosis In A Referral Center In Rome: 2011- 2016.

PURPOSE: Multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) is a major burden to public health in low incidence countries in Europe. The aim of this study was to attempt to have a better insight into the trends of MDR-TB in the metropolitan area of Rome, within the Italian and the foreign-born population, based on microbiological and demographic data. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We performed a prospective study, collecting microbiological data based on phenotypic drug-resistant testing (DST) of TB strains consecutively isolated in a referral hospital in Rome, the capital city of a low TB incidence country, over a 6-year period, and correlated them to the geographical origin of patients. This study was carried out in a referral hospital for patients with drug-resistant TB from the whole region. RESULTS: Drug-resistance data from 926 patients with a microbiological diagnosis of TB from 2011 to 2016 show a 5.5% rate of MDR-TB, mostly occurring in patients born in a single East European country, that has a high incidence of MDR-TB. The strains isolated from these patients frequently carry additional resistances, leading to an increased risk of developing extensively drug-resistant (XDR) TB. CONCLUSION: In the great metropolitan area of Rome, MDR-TB more frequently occurs in patients who were born in a single country from Eastern Europe known to have high rates of MDR-TB and long-time residents in Italy. Recent immigrants from non-European countries do not appear to contribute to the rates of MDR-TB reported in this article. This knowledge of local TB trends could help improve the measures of surveillance and prevention of disease.

Meta-analysis of spineless cactus feeding to meat lambs: performance and development of mathematical models to predict dry matter intake and average daily gain.

Spineless cactus is a useful feed for various animal species in arid and semiarid regions due to its adaptability to dry and harsh soil, high efficiency of water use and carbohydrates storage. This meta-analysis was carried out to assess the effect of spineless cactus on animal performance, and develop and evaluate equations to predict dry matter intake (DMI) and average daily gain (ADG) in meat lambs. Equations for predicting DMI and ADG as a function of animal and diet characteristics were developed using data from eight experiments. The dataset was comprised of 40 treatment means from 289 meat lambs, in which cactus was included from 0 to 75% of the diet dry matter (DM). Accuracy and precision were evaluated by cross-validation using the mean square error of prediction (MSEP), which was decomposed into mean bias, systematic bias and random error; concordance correlation coefficient, which was decomposed into accuracy (Cb) and precision (ρ); and coefficient of determination (R2). In addition, the data set was used to evaluate the predicting accuracy and precision of the main lamb feeding systems (Agricultural and Food Research Council, Small Ruminant Nutritional System, National Research Council and Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique) and also two Brazilian studies. The DMI, CP intake (CPI), metabolizable energy (ME) intake and ADG increased when cactus was included up to 499 g/kg DM (P<0.001). In contrast, animals fed high levels of cactus (>500 g/kg DM) had a decreased DMI, CPI and NDF intake, but increased feed efficiency (P<0.001) and similar ADG compared with those without cactus addition. The DMI was positively correlated with initial BW, final BW, concentrate and ADG, while it was negatively correlated with cactus inclusion and ME of the diet. On other hand, ADG was positively correlated with DMI, initial and mean BW and concentrate, and it was negatively correlated with cactus inclusion. The two developed equations had high accuracy (Cb of 0.95 for DMI and 0.94 for ADG) and the random error of MSEP was 99% for both equations. The precision of both equations was moderate, with R2 values of 0.53 and 0.50 and ρ values of 0.73 and 0.71 for DMI and ADG, respectively. In conclusion, the developed equation to predict DMI had moderate precision and high accuracy, nonetheless, it was more efficient than those reported in the literature. The proposed equations can be a useful alternative to estimate intake and performance of lambs fed cactus.

Clinical evaluation of TRCReady M.TB for rapid automated detection of M. tuberculosis complex in respiratory samples.

SETTING: Timely diagnosis of tuberculosis (TB) is essential for effectively controlling and managing the disease. Although international guidelines recommend acid-fast bacilli staining and culture as the 'gold standard', new molecular methods are available to safely and rapidly identify positive samples. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the performance of the newer and fully automated version of a molecular assay for rRNA amplification (TRCReady® M.TB) on 1028 respiratory samples collected from 378 patients for its possible use as a reliable screening method. Results were evaluated using culture as the reference test. RESULTS: Of four diagnostic protocols employed, best results were obtained when TRCReady M.TB was used together with microscopy on the first respiratory sample, followed by microscopy alone on a second one. The sensitivity and specificity were respectively 97% and 100%, with a turnaround time of 24 h. We propose a possible laboratory algorithm for rapid identification of patients with TB. CONCLUSIONS: TRCReady offers the advantages of full automation and avoidance of cross-contamination. As such, it should be considered as a more economical option for TB screening than other commercial assays that are currently available.

Correlation among olfactory function, motors' symptoms, cognitive impairment, apathy, and fatigue in patients with Parkinson's disease.

Although Parkinson's disease (PD) is usually considered as a movement disorder, it is strongly associated with non-motor symptoms (NMS), including smell and taste dysfunctions, cognitive impairment, apathy, fatigue, and autonomic dysregulation. Olfactory deficit is considered the most common NMS in PD preceding the motor symptoms for years. The aim of this study was to investigate olfactory function, cognitive impairment, apathy, and fatigue in patients with PD in comparison with healthy controls, and subsequently to analyse the correlations between these NMS and motor symptoms severity in subjects with PD. One hundred and forty-seven participants were enrolled (96 PD patients, mean age in years 67.5, SD 7.2; 51 healthy controls; mean age 65.1, SD 11.8). Olfactory function was evaluated using the Sniffin' Sticks test (odor detection threshold, discrimination and identification). The Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA) was used to assess cognitive impairment. Apathy was examined by the self-report version of Starkstein Apathy Scale and fatigue was evaluated with the Parkinson's Disease Fatigue Scale. PD patients showed severe impairment in odor detection threshold, discrimination, and identification compared to healthy controls. Moreover, in PD patients, apathy and fatigue scores were significantly increased, while MoCA scores were decreased in comparison with controls. Multivariate linear regression analyses showed that both apathy and Unified PD Rating Scale (UPDRS) were associated with odor identification, discrimination and Threshold-Discrimination-Identification (TDI) score. In conclusion, our results reported changes in apathy and motor disability as significant predictors in alterations of odor identification, discrimination and TDI score. Furthermore, these data suggest that olfactory dysfunction might progress in tight relation with motor impairment UPDRS but also with non-motor symptoms such as apathy.

Evaluation of a rapid and sensitive RT-qPCR assay for the detection of Ebola Virus.

BACKGROUND: The 2013-2016 Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak showed a lack of diagnostic point-of-care methods. Currently, EBOV diagnosis relies on quantitative reverse-transcription-PCR (RT- qPCR), highly specific and sensitive, but requiring skilled personnel and well-equipped laboratories. In field settings, these factors and others, such as samples' time of collection and transportation, determine a prolonged turnaround-time to final results. In outbreak scenarios, a rapid and transportable method could eliminate issues of cohorting suspected and actual EVD patients for lack of diagnostic certainty. The aim of this study was the field evaluation of the new fast, easy-to-use and reliable RT-qPCR assay and platform for EBOV detection, developed in the framework of the EbolaMoDRAD project by CLONIT S.r.l. and STMicroelectronics S.r.l. STUDY DESIGN: We evaluated its performance during the outbreak and in further studies in the EVD laboratory at the Princess Christian Maternity Hospital (PCMH) in Freetown (Sierra Leone) run by Emergency NGO and the Italian National Institute for Infectious Diseases (INMI). The assay was tested on residual aliquots of clinical specimens from EBOV-positive or -negative patients (n=116, EVD prevalence 37%). RESULTS AND CONCLUSION: Overall, the test was very easy-to-use and the instrument was robust and reliable in field-settings. The sensitivity of the assay was 100% and the specificity was 98.63% (95%CI: 96.34-100.92%). The positive and negative predictive values were 97.73 (95%CI:94.77-100.68%) and 100%, respectively. The high sensitivity and specificity of this new assay indicate that it is promising for laboratory diagnosis, especially in resource-limited settings.

Exploring MALDI-TOF MS approach for a rapid identification of Mycobacterium avium ssp. paratuberculosis field isolates.

AIMS: The aim of the study was to explore the suitability of matrix-assisted laser desorption/ionisation time-of-flight mass spectrometry (MALDI-TOF MS) for a rapid and correct identification of Mycobacterium avium ssp. paratuberculosis (MAP) field isolates. METHODS AND RESULTS: MALDI-TOF MS approach is becoming one of the most popular tests for the identification of intact bacterial cells which has been shown to be fast and reliable. For this purpose, 36 MAP field isolates were analysed through MALDI-TOF MS and the spectra compared with two different databases: one provided by the vendor of the system employed (Biotyper ver. 3·0; Bruker Daltonics) and a homemade database containing spectra from both tuberculous and nontuberculous Mycobacteria. Moreover, principal component analysis procedure was employed to confirm the ability of MALDI-TOF MS to discriminate between very closely related subspecies. Our results suggest MAP can be differentiated from other Mycobacterium species, both when the species are very close (M. intracellulare) and when belonging to different subspecies (M. avium ssp. avium and M. avium ssp. silvaticum). CONCLUSIONS: The procedure applied is fast, easy to perform, and achieves an earlier accurate species identification of MAP and nontuberculous Mycobacteria in comparison to other procedures. SIGNIFICANCE AND IMPACT OF THE STUDY: The gold standard test for the diagnosis of paratuberculosis is still isolation of MAP by cultural methods, but additional assays, such as qPCR and subculturing for determination of mycobactin dependency are required to confirm its identification. We have provided here evidence pertaining to the usefulness of MALDI-TOF MS approach for a rapid identification of this mycobacterium among other members of M. avium complex.

Blood and urine inducible protein 10 as potential markers of disease activity.

SETTING: Blood interferon-γ inducible protein 10 (IP-10) has been proposed as a biomarker of disease activity for both tuberculosis (TB) and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection. Urine IP-10 has been detected in adults with active TB, and its level decreases after successful anti-tuberculosis treatment. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate blood and urine IP-10 as biomarker of disease activity. DESIGN: Patients with HIV-TB and active TB were enrolled. Individuals with HIV infection only and healthy donors were included as controls. Blood and urine IP-10 levels were measured using an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. RESULTS: Of 39 active TB patients enrolled, 24 were HIV-infected and 15 were HIV-uninfected. Of 87 control subjects without active TB, 54 were HIV-infected and 33 were HIV-uninfected. IP-10 analysis was performed in patients with concomitant blood and urine sample collection. Blood IP-10 was associated with active TB, regardless of HIV infection status; urine IP-10 levels were increased in active TB patients, although the difference was significant in HIV-infected individuals only. Finally, in HIV-infected patients, both blood and urine IP-10 levels were inversely correlated with CD4 T-cell counts. CONCLUSION: These findings suggest that IP-10 could be used as a biomarker for disease activity (inflammation).

Dairy goat kids fed liquid diets in substitution of goat milk and slaughtered at different ages: an economic viability analysis using Monte Carlo techniques.

The aim of this study was to analyze the economic viability of producing dairy goat kids fed liquid diets in alternative of goat milk and slaughtered at two different ages. Forty-eight male newborn Saanen and Alpine kids were selected and allocated to four groups using a completely randomized factorial design: goat milk (GM), cow milk (CM), commercial milk replacer (CMR) and fermented cow colostrum (FC). Each group was then divided into two groups: slaughter at 60 and 90 days of age. The animals received Tifton hay and concentrate ad libitum. The values of total costs of liquid and solid feed plus labor, income and average gross margin were calculated. The data were then analyzed using the Monte Carlo techniques with the @Risk 5.5 software, with 1000 iterations of the variables being studied through the model. The kids fed GM and CMR generated negative profitability values when slaughtered at 60 days (US$ -16.4 and US$ -2.17, respectively) and also at 90 days (US$ -30.8 and US$ -0.18, respectively). The risk analysis showed that there is a 98% probability that profitability would be negative when GM is used. In this regard, CM and FC presented low risk when the kids were slaughtered at 60 days (8.5% and 21.2%, respectively) and an even lower risk when animals were slaughtered at 90 days (5.2% and 3.8%, respectively). The kids fed CM and slaughtered at 90 days presented the highest average gross income (US$ 67.88) and also average gross margin (US$ 18.43/animal). For the 60-day rearing regime to be economically viable, the CMR cost should not exceed 11.47% of the animal-selling price. This implies that the replacer cannot cost more than US$ 0.39 and 0.43/kg for the 60- and 90-day feeding regimes, respectively. The sensitivity analysis showed that the variables with the greatest impact on the final model's results were animal selling price, liquid diet cost, final weight at slaughter and labor. In conclusion, the production of male dairy goat kids can be economically viable when the kids diet consists mainly of either cow milk or fermented colostrum, especially when kids are slaughtered at 90 days of age.

Using the Small Ruminant Nutrition System to develop and evaluate an alternative approach to estimating the dry matter intake of goats when accounting for ruminal fiber stratification.

The first objective of this research was to assess the ability of the Small Ruminant Nutrition System (SRNS) mechanistic model to predict metabolizable energy intake (MEI) and milk yield (MY) when using a heterogeneous fiber pool scenario (GnG1), compared with a traditional, homogeneous scenario (G1). The second objective was to evaluate an alternative approach to estimating the dry matter intake (DMI) of goats to be used in the SRNS model. The GnG1 scenario considers an age-dependent fractional transference rate for fiber particles from the first ruminal fiber pool (raft) to an escapable pool (λr), and that this second ruminal fiber pool (i.e., escapable pool) follows an age-independent fractional escape rate for fiber particles (ke). Scenario G1 adopted only a single fractional passage rate (kp). All parameters were estimated individually by using equations published in the literature, except for 2 passage rate equations in the G1 scenario: 1 developed with sheep data (G1-S) and another developed with goat data (G1-G). The alternative approach to estimating DMI was based on an optimization process using a series of dietary constraints. The DMI, MEI, and MY estimated for the GnG1 and G1 scenarios were compared with the results of an independent dataset (n=327) that contained information regarding DMI, MEI, MY, and milk and dietary compositions. The evaluation of the scenarios was performed using the coefficient of determination (R(2)) between the observed and predicted values, mean bias (MB), bias correction factor (Cb), and concordance correlation coefficient. The MEI estimated by the GnG1 scenario yielded precise and accurate values (R(2) = 082; MB = 0.21 Mcal/d; Cb = 0.98) similar to those of the G1-S (R(2) = 0.85; MB = 0.10 Mcal/d; Cb=0.99) and G1-G (R(2) = 0.84; MB = 0.18 Mcal/d; Cb = 0.98) scenarios. The results were also similar for the MY, but a substantial MB was found as follows: GnG1 (R(2) = 0.74; MB = 0.70 kg/d; Cb = 0.79), G1-S (R(2) = 0.71; MB = 0.58 kg/d(1); Cb = 0.85) and G1-G (R(2) = 0.71; MB = 0.65 kg/d; Cb = 0.82). The alternative approach for DMI prediction provided better results with the G1-G scenario (R(2)=0.88; MB = -71.67 g/d; Cb = 0.98). We concluded that the GnG1 scenario is valid within mechanistic models such as the SRNS and that the alternative approach for estimating DMI is reasonable and can be used in diet formulations for goats.

A multivariate and stochastic approach to identify key variables to rank dairy farms on profitability.

The economic efficiency of dairy farms is the main goal of farmers. The objective of this work was to use routinely available information at the dairy farm level to develop an index of profitability to rank dairy farms and to assist the decision-making process of farmers to increase the economic efficiency of the entire system. A stochastic modeling approach was used to study the relationships between inputs and profitability (i.e., income over feed cost; IOFC) of dairy cattle farms. The IOFC was calculated as: milk revenue + value of male calves + culling revenue - herd feed costs. Two databases were created. The first one was a development database, which was created from technical and economic variables collected in 135 dairy farms. The second one was a synthetic database (sDB) created from 5,000 synthetic dairy farms using the Monte Carlo technique and based on the characteristics of the development database data. The sDB was used to develop a ranking index as follows: (1) principal component analysis (PCA), excluding IOFC, was used to identify principal components (sPC); and (2) coefficient estimates of a multiple regression of the IOFC on the sPC were obtained. Then, the eigenvectors of the sPC were used to compute the principal component values for the original 135 dairy farms that were used with the multiple regression coefficient estimates to predict IOFC (dRI; ranking index from development database). The dRI was used to rank the original 135 dairy farms. The PCA explained 77.6% of the sDB variability and 4 sPC were selected. The sPC were associated with herd profile, milk quality and payment, poor management, and reproduction based on the significant variables of the sPC. The mean IOFC in the sDB was 0.1377 ± 0.0162 euros per liter of milk (€/L). The dRI explained 81% of the variability of the IOFC calculated for the 135 original farms. When the number of farms below and above 1 standard deviation (SD) of the dRI were calculated, we found that 21 farms had dRI<-1 SD, 32 farms were between -1 SD and 0, 67 farms were between 0 and +1 SD, and 15 farms had dRI>+1 SD. The top 10% of the farms had a dRI greater than 0.170 €/L, whereas the bottom 10% farms had a dRI lower than 0.116 €/L. This stochastic approach allowed us to understand the relationships among the inputs of the studied dairy farms and to develop a ranking index for comparison purposes. The developed methodology may be improved by using more inputs at the dairy farm level and considering the actual cost to measure profitability.

Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis in Sardinia (Italy): epidemiologic features from 1957 to 2000.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate epidemiological variables of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) in Sardinia (Italy) in the 1991-2000 periods and compare them with the preceding decades. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Survey, critical reappraisal or clinical re-evaluation of all ALS cases with onset in the decade 1991-2000; calculation of crude and age-adjusted incidence, duration of disease, survival rates and the latency between onset of symptoms and diagnosis. RESULTS: A significant increase in the mean annual incidence was observed in comparison with the values found in the two previous decades, 1971-1980 and 1981-1990. The distribution of the disease in various areas of the island was found to be not at all homogeneous. No significant modifications of the duration of the disease and survival rates were observed. CONCLUSION: The role of particular exogenous factors, albeit still unclear, can be invoked.

Behavioral, neuropsychiatric and cognitive disorders in Parkinson's disease patients with and without motor complications.

BACKGROUND: Parkinson's disease (PD), commonly defined as a hypokinetic movement disorder, is hampered by the appearance of motor complications (MC), including dyskinesias and motor fluctuations, and non-motor symptoms such as behavioral, neuropsychiatric and cognitive disorders, which, in the last years, are gaining increasing attention. The factors affecting MC and these non-motor symptoms are still largely unknown and their interactions are not yet fully evaluated. OBJECTIVE: To identify the presence of behavioral, neuropsychiatric and cognitive disorders in PD patients with and without MC and to evaluate their association with MC. METHODS: Consecutive PD patients received a comprehensive structured clinical evaluation including pharmacologic treatment, MC and non-motor symptoms such as reward-seeking behaviors, neuropsychiatric symptoms (depression, anxiety, psychoses and hallucinations) and dementia. RESULTS: 349 patients were included in this analysis. Patient with MC showed enhanced frequency of dementia (p < 0.001), anxiety, depression and psychoses (p < 0.01). A higher frequency of impulse control disorders was detected in patients with dyskinesias (22.2% - p < 0.001) and motor complications (12.2% - p < 0.05). Dyskinesias were significantly more present in patients with hypersexuality (p < 0.05) and compulsive shopping (p < 0.001), while they were not significantly associated with pathological gambling and binge eating. Patients with dyskinesias also had significantly higher frequency of dopamine dysregulation syndrome, hallucinations and delusions (p < 0.001), with the exception of delusional jealousy. DISCUSSION: We found a higher frequency of behavioral, neuropsychiatric and cognitive disorders in patients with MC. The lack of detection of dyskinesias in several PD patients with pathological gambling in our study represents a very interesting issue. While binge eating mainly seems to be related to the use of dopamine agonists, the significant lack of association between dyskinesias and delusional jealousy suggests the hypothesis of a possible underlying psychopathological predisposition rather than a mere pharmacologic effect in PD patients with these behavioral complications.