Atherosclerosis Complications in the Brazilian Population: An Ecological Time Series Study

Abstract Background: Atherosclerosis is a serious health problem, and several factors contribute to its occurrence. Longitudinal and qualified monitoring of primary health care (PHC) may contribute to the management of atherosclerosis and reduction of avoidable hospital admissions. Objectives: To estimate the trend in hospitalizations for atherosclerosis and the impact of PHC coverage on its evolution from 2008 to 2018 in Brazil. Methods: An ecological time series analytical study based on the outcomes of hospital admissions for atherosclerosis in Brazil. Time in years, PHC coverage, and Family Health Strategy (FHS) services were considered independent variables. A Prais-Winsten model was used to estimate the outcome trend, and α < 0.05 was adopted. Results: We observed a mean increase of 1.81 hospitalizations for atherosclerosis per 100 000 inhabitants annually (p = 0.002) in Brazil. This growth was evidenced in the Northeast (p < 0.001), Southeast (p = 0.003), and South (p < 0.001) regions, being stable in the North (p = 0.057) and Midwest (p = 0.62) regions. Men presented twice the growth in hospitalizations from the fifth decade of life on (p < 0.01). An inversely proportional relationship was observed for PHC coverage (B = -0.71; p < 0.001) and the proportion of FHS services (B = -0.59; p < 0.001) with the rate of admissions due to atherosclerosis in Brazil. Conclusions: Although hospitalizations for atherosclerotic complications are increasing in Brazil, they present regional and individual gender and age discrepancies, as well as a mitigating effect exerted by PHC coverage.