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1.
Clim Change ; 173(23): 1-20, 2023 Mar 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39022649

RESUMO

Freshwater ecosystems, including lakes, streams, and wetlands, are responsive to climate change and other natural and anthropogenic stresses. These ecosystems are frequently hydrologically and ecologically connected with one another and their surrounding landscapes, thereby integrating changes throughout their watersheds. The responses of any given freshwater ecosystem to climate change depend on the magnitude of climate forcing, interactions with other anthropogenic and natural changes, and the characteristics of the ecosystem itself. Therefore, the magnitude and manner in which freshwater ecosystems respond to climate change is difficult to predict a priori. We present a conceptual model to elucidate how freshwater ecosystems are altered by climate change. We identify eleven indicators that describe the response of freshwater ecosystems to climate change, discuss their potential value and limitations, and describe supporting measurements. Indicators are organized in three inter-related categories: hydrologic, water quality, and ecosystem structure and function. The indicators are supported by data sets with a wide range of temporal and spatial coverage, and they inform important scientific and management needs. Together, these indicators improve the understanding and management of the effects of climate change on freshwater ecosystems.

2.
Ecol Indic ; 135: 1-13, 2022 Feb.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36213608

RESUMO

Benthic diatom assemblages are known to be indicative of water quality but have yet to be widely adopted in biological assessments in the United States due to several limitations. Our goal was to address some of these limitations by developing regional multi-metric indices (MMIs) that are robust to inter-laboratory taxonomic inconsistency, adjusted for natural covariates, and sensitive to a wide range of anthropogenic stressors. We aggregated bioassessment data from two national-scale federal programs and used a data-driven analysis in which all-possible combinations of 2-7 metrics were compared for three measures of performance. After ranking the best-performing MMIs, we selected the final MMIs by evaluating stress-response relations in independent regional datasets of diatom samples paired with measures of several water-quality stressors, including herbicides and streamflow flashiness. Each regional MMI performed well at calibration sites and represented diverse aspects of the structure and function of diatom communities. Most metrics included in the best MMIs were modeled to account for natural variation including climate, topography, soil characteristics, lithology, and groundwater influence on streamflow. MMI performance improved with higher numbers of component metrics, but this effect diminished beyond six metrics. Component metrics of MMIs were associated with a broad suite of measured stressors in every region, including salinity, nutrients, herbicides, and streamflow flashiness. We provide a web-based software application that allows users in the conterminous United States to apply our MMIs to their own datasets and compare MMI scores from their sites to a broader regional context.

3.
Sci Adv ; 8(15): eabj8182, 2022 Apr 15.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35417236

RESUMO

Neonicotinoid mixtures are common in streams worldwide, but corresponding ecological responses are poorly understood. We combined experimental and observational studies to narrow this knowledge gap. The mesocosm experiment determined that concentrations of the neonicotinoids imidacloprid and clothianidin (range of exposures, 0 to 11.9 µg/liter) above the hazard concentration for 5% of species (0.017 and 0.010 µg/liter, respectively) caused a loss in taxa abundance and richness, disrupted adult emergence, and altered trophodynamics, while mixtures of the two neonicotinoids caused dose-dependent synergistic effects. In 85 Coastal California streams, neonicotinoids were commonly detected [59% of samples (n = 340), 72% of streams], frequently occurred as mixtures (56% of streams), and potential toxicity was dominated by imidacloprid (maximum = 1.92 µg/liter) and clothianidin (maximum = 2.51 µg/liter). Ecological responses in the field were consistent with the synergistic effects observed in the mesocosm experiment, indicating that neonicotinoid mixtures pose greater than expected risks to stream health.

4.
Sci Total Environ ; 826: 154241, 2022 Jun 20.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35245560

RESUMO

Benthic cyanobacteria are widespread in streams and rivers and have the potential to release toxins. In large numbers, these microorganisms and their toxins present a risk to human health. Cyanobacterial abundance in stream biofilms is typically related to single or a limited set of environmental factors, mainly light availability, water temperature, and nutrient concentrations. However, these factors may act synergistically with watershed characteristics and other stressors, such as anthropogenic pollutants, to affect cyanobacteria. We investigated the influence of multiple regional and local variables on the abundance of benthic cyanobacterial genera in streams using all subsets generalized additive modeling. We examined watershed factors (topography, geology, and climate) alongside in-stream factors (geomorphology, hydrology, pH, specific conductance, nutrients, organic contaminants, and dissolved metals) from 76 sites along an urban gradient in the northeast United States. Each genus responded to a distinct combination of environmental variables, demonstrating strong intergeneric variation in environmental selection of realized niches. Four of the 7 potentially toxigenic genera that we modeled were positively influenced by water temperature or nutrients. Nonetheless, watershed characteristics, streamflow, and/or other water quality pollutants were equally or more influential for the potentially toxigenic genera. Additionally, the relationships between cyanobacterial abundance and environmental factors varied in shape and direction across many genera. In particular, with increasing concentrations of herbicides, polychlorinated biphenyls, or metals, the abundance of roughly half of the affected genera decreased, while the others increased. These results likely demonstrate novel toxic effects of the pollutants on cyanobacterial genera in the environment, while indicating that unmeasured biotic interactions may lead to positive responses for other genera. Our results emphasize the need to consider variables beyond those that are most frequently measured or implicated (e.g., water temperature and nutrients) to more fully understand the environmental conditions that influence the distributions and abundance of potentially harmful cyanobacteria.


Assuntos
Cianobactérias , Poluentes Ambientais , Biofilmes , Humanos , Rios , Qualidade da Água
5.
Sci Total Environ ; 800: 149350, 2021 Dec 15.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34399326

RESUMO

Biological assemblages in streams are affected by a wide variety of physical and chemical stressors associated with land-use development, yet the importance of combinations of different types of stressors is not well known. From 2013 to 2017, the U.S. Geological Survey completed multi-stressor/multi-assemblage stream ecological assessments in five regions of the United States (434 streams total). Diatom, invertebrate, and fish communities were enumerated, and five types of potential stressors were quantified: habitat disturbance, excess nutrients, high flows, basic water quality, and contaminants in water and sediment. Boosted regression tree (BRT) models for each biological assemblage and region generally included variables from all five stressor types and multiple stressors types in each model was the norm. Classification and regression tree (CART) models then were used to determine thresholds for each BRT model variable above which there appeared to be adverse effects (multi-metric index (MMI) models only). In every region and assemblage there was a significant inverse relation between the MMI and the number of stressors exerting potentially adverse effects. The number of elevated instream stressors often varied substantially for a given level of land-use development and the number of elevated stressors was a better predictor of biological condition than was development. Using the adverse effects-levels that were developed based on the BRT model results, 68% of the streams had two or more stressors with potentially adverse effects and 35% had four or more. Our results indicate that relatively small increases in the number of stressors of different types can have a large effect on a stream ecosystem.


Assuntos
Ecossistema , Rios , Animais , Monitoramento Ambiental , Peixes , Invertebrados , Estados Unidos , Qualidade da Água
6.
Sci Total Environ ; 773: 145062, 2021 Jun 15.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33940714

RESUMO

Chemical-contaminant mixtures are widely reported in large stream reaches in urban/agriculture-developed watersheds, but mixture compositions and aggregate biological effects are less well understood in corresponding smaller headwaters, which comprise most of stream length, riparian connectivity, and spatial biodiversity. During 2014-2017, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) measured 389 unique organic analytes (pharmaceutical, pesticide, organic wastewater indicators) in 305 headwater streams within four contiguous United States (US) regions. Potential aquatic biological effects were evaluated for estimated maximum and median exposure conditions using multiple lines of evidence, including occurrence/concentrations of designed-bioactive pesticides and pharmaceuticals and cumulative risk screening based on vertebrate-centric ToxCast™ exposure-response data and on invertebrate and nonvascular plant aquatic life benchmarks. Mixed-contaminant exposures were ubiquitous and varied, with 78% (304) of analytes detected at least once and cumulative maximum concentrations up to more than 156,000 ng/L. Designed bioactives represented 83% of detected analytes. Contaminant summary metrics correlated strong-positive (rho (ρ): 0.569-0.719) to multiple watershed-development metrics, only weak-positive to point-source discharges (ρ: 0.225-353), and moderate- to strong-negative with multiple instream invertebrate metrics (ρ: -0.373 to -0.652). Risk screening indicated common exposures with high probability of vertebrate-centric molecular effects and of acute toxicity to invertebrates, respectively. The results confirm exposures to broad and diverse contaminant mixtures and provide convincing multiple lines of evidence that chemical contaminants contribute substantially to adverse multi-stressor effects in headwater-stream communities.

7.
Environ Manage ; 67(6): 1171-1185, 2021 06.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33710388

RESUMO

Regionally scaled assessments of hydrologic alteration for small streams and its effects on freshwater taxa are often inhibited by a low number of stream gages. To overcome this limitation, we paired modeled estimates of hydrologic alteration to a benthic macroinvertebrate index of biotic integrity data for 4522 stream reaches across the Chesapeake Bay watershed. Using separate random-forest models, we predicted flow status (inflated, diminished, or indeterminant) for 12 published hydrologic metrics (HMs) that characterize the main components of flow regimes. We used these models to predict each HM status for each stream reach in the watershed, and linked predictions to macroinvertebrate condition samples collected from streams with drainage areas less than 200 km2. Flow alteration was calculated as the number of HMs with inflated or diminished status and ranged from 0 (no HM inflated or diminished) to 12 (all 12 HMs inflated or diminished). When focused solely on the stream condition and flow-alteration relationship, degraded macroinvertebrate condition was, depending on the number of HMs used, 3.8-4.7 times more likely in a flow-altered site; this likelihood was over twofold higher in the urban-focused dataset (8.7-10.8), and was never significant in the agriculture-focused dataset. Logistic regression analysis using the entire dataset showed for every unit increase in flow-alteration intensity, the odds of a degraded condition increased 3.7%. Our results provide an indication of whether altered streamflow is a possible driver of degraded biological conditions, information that could help managers prioritize management actions and lead to more effective restoration efforts.


Assuntos
Baías , Ecossistema , Agricultura , Animais , Monitoramento Ambiental , Hidrologia , Invertebrados
8.
Sci Adv ; 6(43)2020 10.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33097542

RESUMO

Insecticides in streams are increasingly a global concern, yet information on safe concentrations for aquatic ecosystems is sparse. In a 30-day mesocosm experiment exposing native benthic aquatic invertebrates to the common insecticide fipronil and four degradates, fipronil compounds caused altered emergence and trophic cascades. Effect concentrations eliciting a 50% response (EC50) were developed for fipronil and its sulfide, sulfone, and desulfinyl degradates; taxa were insensitive to fipronil amide. Hazard concentrations for 5% of affected species derived from up to 15 mesocosm EC50 values were used to convert fipronil compound concentrations in field samples to the sum of toxic units (∑TUFipronils). Mean ∑TUFipronils exceeded 1 (indicating toxicity) in 16% of streams sampled from five regional studies. The Species at Risk invertebrate metric was negatively associated with ∑TUFipronils in four of five regions sampled. This ecological risk assessment indicates that low concentrations of fipronil compounds degrade stream communities in multiple regions of the United States.

9.
Environ Sci Technol ; 54(9): 5509-5519, 2020 05 05.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32309929

RESUMO

Streambed sediment is commonly analyzed to assess occurrence of hydrophobic pesticides and risks to aquatic communities. However, stream biofilms also have the potential to accumulate pesticides and may be consumed by aquatic organisms. To better characterize risks to aquatic life, the U.S. Geological Survey Regional Stream Quality Assessment measured 93 current-use and 3 legacy pesticides in bed sediment and biofilm from 54 small streams in California across a range of land-use settings. On average, 4 times as many current-use pesticides were detected in biofilm at a site (median of 2) as in sediment (median of 0.5). Of 31 current-use pesticides detected, 20 were detected more frequently in biofilm than in sediment and 10 with equal frequency. Pyrethroids as a class were the most potentially toxic to benthic invertebrates, and of the 9 pyrethroids detected, 7 occurred more frequently in biofilm than sediment. We constructed general additive models to investigate relations between pesticides and 6 metrics of benthic community structure. Pesticides in biofilm improved fit in 4 of the 6 models, and pesticides in sediment improved fit in 2. The results indicate that the sampling of stream biofilms can complement bed-sediment sampling by identification of more current-use pesticides present and better estimation of ecological risks.


Assuntos
Praguicidas/análise , Poluentes Químicos da Água/análise , Animais , Biofilmes , Biota , Monitoramento Ambiental , Rios
10.
PLoS One ; 15(1): e0228214, 2020.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31999738

RESUMO

Human-use pharmaceuticals in urban streams link aquatic-ecosystem health to human health. Pharmaceutical mixtures have been widely reported in larger streams due to historical emphasis on wastewater-treatment plant (WWTP) sources, with limited investigation of pharmaceutical exposures and potential effects in smaller headwater streams. In 2014-2017, the United States Geological Survey measured 111 pharmaceutical compounds in 308 headwater streams (261 urban-gradient sites sampled 3-5 times, 47 putative low-impact sites sampled once) in 4 regions across the US. Simultaneous exposures to multiple pharmaceutical compounds (pharmaceutical mixtures) were observed in 91% of streams (248 urban-gradient, 32 low-impact), with 88 analytes detected across all sites and cumulative maximum concentrations up to 36,142 ng/L per site. Cumulative detections and concentrations correlated to urban land use and presence/absence of permitted WWTP discharges, but pharmaceutical mixtures also were common in the 75% of sampled streams without WWTP. Cumulative exposure-activity ratios (EAR) indicated widespread transient exposures with high probability of molecular effects to vertebrates. Considering the potential individual and interactive effects of the detected pharmaceuticals and the recognized analytical underestimation of the pharmaceutical-contaminant (unassessed parent compounds, metabolites, degradates) space, these results demonstrate a nation-wide environmental concern and the need for watershed-scale mitigation of in-stream pharmaceutical contamination.


Assuntos
Exposição Ambiental , Preparações Farmacêuticas/análise , Rios , Poluentes Químicos da Água/análise , Animais , Ecossistema , Monitoramento Ambiental , Recuperação e Remediação Ambiental , Humanos , Estados Unidos
11.
PLoS One ; 14(10): e0222714, 2019.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31618213

RESUMO

Future land-use development has the potential to profoundly affect the health of aquatic ecosystems in the coming decades. We developed regression models predicting the loss of sensitive fish (R2 = 0.39) and macroinvertebrate (R2 = 0.64) taxa as a function of urban and agricultural land uses and applied them to projected urbanization of the rapidly urbanizing Piedmont ecoregion of the southeastern USA for 2030 and 2060. The regression models are based on a 2014 investigation of water quality and ecology of 75 wadeable streams across the region. Based on these projections, stream kilometers experiencing >50% loss of sensitive fish and invertebrate taxa will nearly quadruple to 19,500 and 38,950 km by 2060 (16 and 32% of small stream kilometers in the region), respectively. Uncertainty was assessed using the 20 and 80% probability of urbanization for the land-use projection model and using the 95% confidence intervals for the regression models. Adverse effects on stream health were linked to elevated concentrations of contaminants and nutrients, low dissolved oxygen, and streamflow alteration, all associated with urbanization. The results of this analysis provide a warning of potential risks from future urbanization and perhaps some guidance on how those risks might be mitigated.


Assuntos
Agricultura , Conservação dos Recursos Hídricos , Urbanização , Qualidade da Água , Animais , Região dos Apalaches , Monitoramento Ambiental/estatística & dados numéricos , Peixes , Invertebrados , Rios
12.
Sci Total Environ ; 660: 1472-1485, 2019 Apr 10.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30743940

RESUMO

During 2014, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) project assessed stream quality in 75 streams across an urban disturbance gradient within the Piedmont ecoregion of southeastern United States. Our objectives were to identify primary instream stressors affecting algal, macroinvertebrate and fish assemblages in wadeable streams. Biotic communities were surveyed once at each site, and various instream stressors were measured during a 4-week index period preceding the ecological sampling. The measured stressors included nutrients; contaminants in water, passive samplers, and sediment; instream habitat; and flow variability. All nine boosted regression tree models - three for each of algae, invertebrates, and fish - had cross-validation R2 (CV R2) values of 0.41 or above, and an invertebrate model had the highest CV R2 of 0.65. At least one contaminant metric was important in every model, and minimum daytime dissolved oxygen (DO), nutrients, and flow alteration were important explanatory variables in many of the models. Physical habitat metrics such as sediment substrate were only moderately important. Flow alteration metrics were useful factors in eight of the nine models. Total phosphorus, acetanilide herbicides and flow (time since last peak) were important in all three algal models, whereas insecticide metrics (especially those representing fipronil and imidacloprid) were dominant in the invertebrate models. DO values below approximately 7 mg/L corresponded to a strong decrease in sensitive taxa or an increase in tolerant taxa. DO also showed strong interactions with other variables, particularly contaminants and sediment, where the combined effect of low DO and elevated contaminants increased the impact on the biota more than each variable individually. Contaminants and flow alteration were strongly correlated to urbanization, indicating the importance of urbanization to ecological stream condition in the region.


Assuntos
Rios/química , Poluentes Químicos da Água/análise , Qualidade da Água , Animais , Cidades , Diatomáceas/efeitos dos fármacos , Diatomáceas/fisiologia , Peixes/fisiologia , Sedimentos Geológicos/química , Invertebrados/efeitos dos fármacos , Modelos Teóricos , Oxigênio/análise , Praguicidas/análise , Análise de Regressão , Estresse Fisiológico , Estados Unidos , Movimentos da Água
13.
Environ Sci Technol ; 53(1): 452-462, 2019 01 02.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30532975

RESUMO

Multiple physical and chemical stressors can simultaneously affect the biological condition of streams. To better understand the complex interactions of land-use practices, water quality, and ecological integrity of streams, the U.S. Geological Survey National Water Quality Assessment Project is conducting regional-scale assessments of stream condition across the United States. In the summer of 2013, weekly water samples were collected from 100 streams in the Midwestern United States. Employing watershed theory, we used structural equation modeling (SEM) to represent a general hypothesis for how 16 variables (previously identified to be important to stream condition) might be inter-related. Again, using SEM, we evaluated the ability of this "stressor network" to explain variations in multimetrics of algal, invertebrate, and fish community health, trimming away any environmental variables not contributing to an explanation of the ecological responses. Seven environmental variables-agricultural and urban land use, sand content of soils, basin area, percent riparian area as forest, channel erosion, and relative bed stability-were found to be important for all three-community metrics. The algal and invertebrate models included water-chemistry variables not included in the fish model. Results suggest that ecological integrity of Midwest streams are affected by both agricultural and urban land uses and by the natural geologic setting, as indicated by the sand content of soils. Chemicals related to crops (pesticides and nutrients) and residential uses (pyrethroids) were found to be more strongly related to ecological integrity than were natural factors (riparian forest, watershed soil character).


Assuntos
Análise de Classes Latentes , Rios , Agricultura , Animais , Ecossistema , Monitoramento Ambiental , Invertebrados , Meio-Oeste dos Estados Unidos
14.
Environ Toxicol Chem ; 35(9): 2281-7, 2016 09.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-26844812

RESUMO

Despite historical observations of potential microcystin-producing cyanobacteria (including Leptolyngbya, Phormidium, Pseudoanabaena, and Anabaena species) in 74% of headwater streams in Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina (USA) from 1993 to 2011, fluvial cyanotoxin occurrence has not been systematically assessed in the southeastern United States. To begin to address this data gap, a spatial reconnaissance of fluvial microcystin concentrations was conducted in 75 wadeable streams in the Piedmont region (southeastern USA) during June 2014. Microcystins were detected using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (limit = 0.10 µg/L) in 39% of the streams with mean, median, and maximum detected concentrations of 0.29 µg/L, 0.11 µg/L, and 3.2 µg/L, respectively. Significant (α = 0.05) correlations were observed between June 2014 microcystin concentrations and stream flow, total nitrogen to total phosphorus ratio, and water temperature; but each of these factors explained 38% or less of the variability in fluvial microcystins across the region. Temporal microcystin variability was assessed monthly through October 2014 in 5 of the streams where microcystins were observed in June and in 1 reference location; microcystins were repeatedly detected in all but the reference stream. Although microcystin concentrations in the present study did not exceed World Health Organization recreational guidance thresholds, their widespread occurrence demonstrates the need for further investigation of possible in-stream environmental health effects as well as potential impacts on downstream lakes and reservoirs. Environ Toxicol Chem 2016;35:2281-2287. Published 2016 Wiley Periodicals Inc. on behalf of SETAC. This article is a US Government work and, as such, is in the public domain in the United States of America.


Assuntos
Cianobactérias/crescimento & desenvolvimento , Monitoramento Ambiental/métodos , Microcistinas/análise , Rios/química , Ensaio de Imunoadsorção Enzimática , Lagos/química , Lagos/microbiologia , Nitrogênio/análise , Fósforo/análise , Rios/microbiologia , Estações do Ano , Sudeste dos Estados Unidos
15.
Environ Monit Assess ; 187(1): 4132, 2015 Jan.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-25487459

RESUMO

Water quality agencies and scientists are increasingly adopting standardized sampling methodologies because of the challenges associated with interpreting data derived from dissimilar protocols. Here, we compare 13 protocols for monitoring streams from different regions and countries around the globe. Despite the spatially diverse range of countries assessed, many aspects of bioassessment structure and protocols were similar, thereby providing evidence of key characteristics that might be incorporated in a global sampling methodology. Similarities were found regarding sampler type, mesh size, sampling period, subsampling methods, and taxonomic resolution. Consistent field and laboratory methods are essential for merging data sets collected by multiple institutions to enable large-scale comparisons. We discuss the similarities and differences among protocols and present current trends and future recommendations for monitoring programs, especially for regions where large-scale protocols do not yet exist. We summarize the current state in one of these regions, Latin America, and comment on the possible development path for these techniques in this region. We conclude that several aspects of stream biomonitoring need additional performance evaluation (accuracy, precision, discriminatory power, relative costs), particularly when comparing targeted habitat (only the commonest habitat type) versus site-wide sampling (multiple habitat types), appropriate levels of sampling and processing effort, and standardized indicators to resolve dissimilarities among biomonitoring methods. Global issues such as climate change are creating an environment where there is an increasing need to have universally consistent data collection, processing and storage to enable large-scale trend analysis. Biomonitoring programs following standardized methods could aid international data sharing and interpretation.


Assuntos
Monitoramento Ambiental/métodos , Invertebrados/crescimento & desenvolvimento , Rios/química , Animais , Organismos Aquáticos/classificação , Organismos Aquáticos/crescimento & desenvolvimento , Organismos Aquáticos/metabolismo , Biodiversidade , Mudança Climática , Ecossistema , Meio Ambiente , Humanos , Invertebrados/classificação , Invertebrados/metabolismo
16.
Sci Total Environ ; 463-464: 414-22, 2013 Oct 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-23827362

RESUMO

The effects of land and water management practices (LWMP)--such as the construction of dams and roads--on river flows typically have been studied at the scale of single river watersheds or for a single type of LWMP. For the most part, assessments of the relative effects of multiple LWMP within many river watersheds across regional and national scales have been lacking. This study assesses flow alteration--quantified as deviation of several flow metrics from natural conditions--at 4196 gauged rivers affected by a variety of LWMP across the conterminous United States. The most widespread causes of flow changes among the LWMP considered were road density and dams. Agricultural development and wastewater discharges also were associated with flow changes in some regions. Dams generally reduced most attributes of flow, whereas road density, agriculture and wastewater discharges tended to be associated with increased flows compared to their natural condition.

17.
Environ Toxicol Chem ; 28(7): 1518-27, 2009 Jul.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-19215187

RESUMO

Analyses of observational data can provide insights into relationships between environmental conditions and biological responses across a broader range of natural conditions than experimental studies, potentially complementing insights gained from experiments. However, observational data must be analyzed carefully to minimize the likelihood that confounding variables bias observed relationships. Propensity scores provide a robust approach for controlling for the effects of measured confounding variables when analyzing observational data. Here, we use propensity scores to estimate changes in mean invertebrate taxon richness in streams that have experienced insecticide concentrations that exceed aquatic life use benchmark concentrations. A simple comparison of richness in sites exposed to elevated insecticides with those that were not exposed suggests that exposed sites had on average 6.8 fewer taxa compared to unexposed sites. The presence of potential confounding variables makes it difficult to assert a causal relationship from this simple comparison. After controlling for confounding factors using propensity scores, the difference in richness between exposed and unexposed sites was reduced to 4.1 taxa, a difference that was still statistically significant. Because the propensity score analysis controlled for the effects of a wide variety of possible confounding variables, we infer that the change in richness observed in the propensity score analysis was likely caused by insecticide exposure.


Assuntos
Monitoramento Ambiental/estatística & dados numéricos , Água Doce/análise , Inseticidas/toxicidade , Invertebrados/efeitos dos fármacos , Modelos Estatísticos , Poluentes Químicos da Água/toxicidade , Animais , Causalidade , Monitoramento Ambiental/métodos , Inseticidas/análise , Invertebrados/crescimento & desenvolvimento , Análise Multivariada , Poluentes Químicos da Água/análise
18.
Environ Monit Assess ; 151(1-4): 143-60, 2009 Apr.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-18493861

RESUMO

We developed and evaluated empirical models to predict biological condition of wadeable streams in a large portion of the eastern USA, with the ultimate goal of prediction for unsampled basins. Previous work had classified (i.e., altered vs. unaltered) the biological condition of 920 streams based on a biological assessment of macroinvertebrate assemblages. Predictor variables were limited to widely available geospatial data, which included land cover, topography, climate, soils, societal infrastructure, and potential hydrologic modification. We compared the accuracy of predictions of biological condition class based on models with continuous and binary responses. We also evaluated the relative importance of specific groups and individual predictor variables, as well as the relationships between the most important predictors and biological condition. Prediction accuracy and the relative importance of predictor variables were different for two subregions for which models were created. Predictive accuracy in the highlands region improved by including predictors that represented both natural and human activities. Riparian land cover and road-stream intersections were the most important predictors. In contrast, predictive accuracy in the lowlands region was best for models limited to predictors representing natural factors, including basin topography and soil properties. Partial dependence plots revealed complex and nonlinear relationships between specific predictors and the probability of biological alteration. We demonstrate a potential application of the model by predicting biological condition in 552 unsampled basins across an ecoregion in southeastern Wisconsin (USA). Estimates of the likelihood of biological condition of unsampled streams could be a valuable tool for screening large numbers of basins to focus targeted monitoring of potentially unaltered or altered stream segments.


Assuntos
Monitoramento Ambiental/métodos , Previsões , Modelos Teóricos , Rios/química , Abastecimento de Água/análise , Ecossistema , Atividades Humanas , Humanos , Sensibilidade e Especificidade , Estados Unidos
19.
Environ Monit Assess ; 130(1-3): 495-510, 2007 Jul.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-17106774

RESUMO

The environmental setting (e.g., climate, topography, geology) and land use affect stream physical characteristics singly and cumulatively. At broad geographic scales, we determined the importance of environmental setting and land use in explaining variation in stream physical characteristics. We hypothesized that as the spatial scale decreased from national to regional, land use would explain more of the variation in stream physical characteristics because environmental settings become more homogeneous. At a national scale, stepwise linear regression indicated that environmental setting was more important in explaining variability in stream physical characteristics. Although statistically discernible, the amount of variation explained by land use was not remarkable due to low partial correlations. At level II ecoregion spatial scales (southeastern USA plains, central USA plains, and a combination of the western Cordillera and the western interior basins and ranges), environmental setting variables were again more important predictors of stream physical characteristics, however, as the spatial scale decreased from national to regional, the portion of variability in stream physical characteristics explained by basin land use increased. Development of stream habitat indicators of land use will depend upon an understanding of relations between stream physical characteristics and environmental factors at multiple spatial scales. Smaller spatial scales will be necessary to reduce the confounding effects of variable environmental settings before the effects of land use can be reliably assessed.


Assuntos
Geografia , Atividades Humanas , Rios , Movimentos da Água , Ecossistema , Análise de Regressão , Estados Unidos
20.
Environ Toxicol Chem ; 21(6): 1138-46, 2002 Jun.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-12069296

RESUMO

Routine biomonitoring of aquatic ecosystems generally is performed with the intent of demonstrating a causal relationship between stressors and responses. However, because it is impossible to eliminate other potential explanations for observed spatiotemporal correlation between stressors and responses, demonstrating causal relationships is highly tenuous in descriptive studies. In this research we show how results of descriptive and experimental approaches can be integrated to demonstrate a causal relationship between heavy metals and benthic community responses in a Rocky Mountain stream (CO, USA). By using a stressor identification process, we show that effects and exposure data collected from a contaminated site (Arkansas River, CO, USA) can be integrated with experimental data to support causal arguments. Analysis of the spatial co-occurrence of metals and benthic community responses in the Arkansas River provided support for the hypothesis that metals caused alterations in benthic community structure. Exposure pathways were quantified by measuring metal bioaccumulation in caddisflies (Trichoptera) collected upstream and downstream from metal inputs. A long-term (10-year) monitoring study showed that reductions in metal concentrations corresponded with improvements in benthic communities. These results were supported by microcosm and field experiments that quantified concentration-response relationships between heavy metals and benthic community composition. Consistency of these responses was demonstrated by comparing results to a spatially extensive survey of metal-polluted streams in Colorado. Our study demonstrates the power of integrating descriptive and experimental approaches for developing causal arguments in ecological assessments.


Assuntos
Ecossistema , Monitoramento Ambiental/métodos , Metais Pesados/efeitos adversos , Poluentes da Água/efeitos adversos , Animais , Exposição Ambiental , Insetos , Invertebrados , Projetos de Pesquisa , Medição de Risco , Distribuição Tecidual
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