RESUMO
BackgroundThere are currently no effective pharmacological or non-pharmacological interventions for Long-COVID. To identify potential therapeutic targets, we focussed on previously described four recovery clusters five months after hospital discharge, their underlying inflammatory profiles and relationship with clinical outcomes at one year. MethodsPHOSP-COVID is a prospective longitudinal cohort study, recruiting adults hospitalised with COVID-19 across the UK. Recovery was assessed using patient reported outcomes measures (PROMs), physical performance, and organ function at five-months and one-year after hospital discharge. Hierarchical logistic regression modelling was performed for patient-perceived recovery at one-year. Cluster analysis was performed using clustering large applications (CLARA) k-medoids approach using clinical outcomes at five-months. Inflammatory protein profiling from plasma at the five-month visit was performed. Findings2320 participants have been assessed at five months after discharge and 807 participants have completed both five-month and one-year visits. Of these, 35{middle dot}6% were female, mean age 58{middle dot}7 (SD 12{middle dot}5) years, and 27{middle dot}8% received invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV). The proportion of patients reporting full recovery was unchanged between five months 501/1965 (25{middle dot}5%) and one year 232/804 (28{middle dot}9%). Factors associated with being less likely to report full recovery at one year were: female sex OR 0{middle dot}68 (95% CI 0{middle dot}46-0{middle dot}99), obesity OR 0{middle dot}50 (95%CI 0{middle dot}34-0{middle dot}74) and IMV OR 0{middle dot}42 (95%CI 0{middle dot}23-0{middle dot}76). Cluster analysis (n=1636) corroborated the previously reported four clusters: very severe, severe, moderate/cognitive, mild relating to the severity of physical, mental health and cognitive impairments at five months in a larger sample. There was elevation of inflammatory mediators of tissue damage and repair in both the very severe and the moderate/cognitive clusters compared to the mild cluster including interleukin-6 which was elevated in both comparisons. Overall, there was a substantial deficit in median (IQR) EQ5D-5L utility index from pre-COVID (retrospective assessment) 0{middle dot}88 (0{middle dot}74-1{middle dot}00), five months 0{middle dot}74 (0{middle dot}60-0{middle dot}88) to one year: 0{middle dot}74 (0{middle dot}59-0{middle dot}88), with minimal improvements across all outcome measures at one-year after discharge in the whole cohort and within each of the four clusters. InterpretationThe sequelae of a hospital admission with COVID-19 remain substantial one year after discharge across a range of health domains with the minority in our cohort feeling fully recovered. Patient perceived health-related quality of life remains reduced at one year compared to pre-hospital admission. Systematic inflammation and obesity are potential treatable traits that warrant further investigation in clinical trials. FundingUKRI & NIHR Research in ContextO_ST_ABSEvidence before this studyC_ST_ABSWe systematically searched PubMed and Embase databases for large studies reporting one-year follow-up data for hospitalised COVID-19 patients published between January 1, 2021 and November 7, 2021, without language restrictions. Search terms related to COVID-19, hospitalisation and long-term follow-up were used. A large prospective cohort study from Wuhan, China (n = 1276) showed that 49% of patients reported at least one persistent symptom during a follow-up clinic visit at 12 months post COVID-19; no significant improvement in exercise capacity was observed between six- and 12-month visits. Another two large cohort studies in China (n = 2433) and Spain (n = 1950) with one-year follow-up data from telephone interviews showed that 45% and 81% of patients reported at least one residual COVID-19 symptom, respectively. However, no previous studies have compared the trajectories of COVID-19 recovery in patients classified by different clinical phenotypes, and there are no large studies investigating the relationship between systemic inflammation and ongoing health impairments post COVID-19. Added value of this studyIn a diverse population of adults post-hospital admission with COVID-19, our large UK prospective multi-centre study reports several novel findings: the minority felt fully recovered at one year with minimal recovery from five months across any health domain; female sex and obesity are associated with being less likely to feel fully recovered at one year; several inflammatory mediators were increased in individuals with the most severe physical, mental health, and cognitive impairments compared to individuals with milder ongoing impairments. Implications of all the available evidenceBoth pharmacological and non-pharmacological interventions are urgently needed to improve the ongoing burden following hospitalisation for COVID-19 both for individuals and healthcare systems; our findings support the use of a precision medicine approach with potential treatable traits of systemic inflammation and obesity.
RESUMO
BackgroundThe impact of COVID-19 varies markedly, not only between individual patients but also between different populations. We hypothesised that differences in human leukocyte antigen (HLA) genes might influence this variation. MethodsUsing next generation sequencing, we analysed the class I and class II classical HLA genes of 147 white British patients with variable clinical outcomes. 49 of these patients were admitted to hospital with severe COVID infection. They had no significant pre-existing comorbidities. We compared the results to those obtained from a group of 69 asymptomatic hospital workers who evidence of COVID exposure based on blood antibody testing. Allelic frequencies in both the severe and asymptomatic groups were compared to local and national healthy controls with adjustments made for age and sex. With the inclusion of hospital staff who had reported localised symptoms only (limited to loss of smell/taste, n=13) or systemic symptoms not requiring hospital treatment (n=16), we carried out ordinal logistic regression modelling to determine the relative influence of age, BMI, sex and the presence of specific HLA genes on symptomatology. FindingsWe found a significant difference in the allelic frequency of HLA-DRB1*04:01 in the severe patient compared to the asymptomatic staff group (5.1% versus 16.7%, p=0.003 after adjustment for age and sex). There was a significantly lower frequency of the haplotype DQA1*01:01/DQB1*05:01/DRB1*01:01 in the asymptomatic group compared to the background population (p=0.007). Ordinal logistic regression modelling confirmed the significant influence of DRB1*04:01 on the clinical severity of COVID-19 observed in the cohorts. InterpretationThis study provides evidence that patient age, sex, BMI and HLA genotype interact to determine the clinical outcome of COVID-19 infection. Research in contextO_ST_ABSEvidence before this studyC_ST_ABSHLA genes are implicated in host resistance or susceptibility to a range of pathogens. No studies thus far have compared HLA allele frequencies in patients requiring hospital admission following COVID-19 exposure to a group of asymptomatic individuals. Added value of this studyThe results indicate that the presence of HLA-DRB1*04:01 might confer protection from the development of respiratory failure following exposure to COVID. Individuals remaining asymptomatic following exposure to COVID are less likely to carry the haplotype DQA1*01:01/DQB1*05:01/DRB1*01:01 compared to the background population. This may indicate a host defence pathway not primarily dependent on an IgG response for clearance of infection. These findings conflict with larger genome wide association studies which compared HLA allelic frequencies of severely unwell patients with the background population. Implications of all the available evidenceThe findings could have implications for targeted vaccination regimes as well as helping assess the impact of social restrictions on mortality rates in different populations.