Spatial heterogeneity ensures long-term stability in vegetation and Fritillaria meleagris flowering in Uppsala Kungsäng, a semi-natural meadow.

Semi-natural grasslands are becoming increasingly rare, and their vegetation may be affected by environmental changes and altered management. At Kungsängen Nature Reserve, a wet to mesic semi-natural meadow near Uppsala, Sweden, we analysed long-term changes in the vegetation using data from 1940, 1982, 1995 and 2016. We also analysed the spatial and temporal dynamics in the Fritillaria meleagris population based on countings of flowering individuals in 1938, 1981-1988 and 2016-2021. Between 1940 and 1982 the wet part of the meadow became wetter, which led to an increased cover of Carex acuta and pushed the main area of flowering of F. meleagris up towards the mesic part. Annual variation in the flowering propensity of F. meleagris (in May) was affected by temperature and precipitation in the phenological phases of growth and bud initiation (June in the previous year), shoot development (September in the previous year) and initiation of flowering (March-April). However, the response to weather was in opposite directions in the wet and mesic parts of the meadow, and the flowering population showed large year-to-year variation but no long-term trend. Variation in management (poorly documented) led to changes in different parts of the meadow, but the overall composition of the vegetation, species richness and diversity changed little after 1982. Species richness and species composition of the meadow vegetation, and the long-term stability of the F. meleagris population are maintained by the variation in wetness, highlighting the importance of spatial heterogeneity as an insurance against biodiversity loss in semi-natural grasslands and nature reserves generally.

Changes in species abundance after seven years of elevated atmospheric CO2 and warming in a Subarctic birch forest understorey, as modified by rodent and moth outbreaks.

A seven-year long, two-factorial experiment using elevated temperatures (5 °C) and CO2 (concentration doubled compared to ambient conditions) designed to test the effects of global climate change on plant community composition was set up in a Subarctic ecosystem in northernmost Sweden. Using point-frequency analyses in permanent plots, an increased abundance of the deciduous Vaccinium myrtillus, the evergreens V. vitis-idaea and Empetrum nigrum ssp. hermaphroditum and the grass Avenella flexuosa was found in plots with elevated temperatures. We also observed a possibly transient community shift in the warmed plots, from the vegetation being dominated by the deciduous V. myrtillus to the evergreen V. vitis-idaea. This happened as a combined effect of V. myrtillus being heavily grazed during two events of herbivore attack-one vole outbreak (Clethrionomys rufocanus) followed by a more severe moth (Epirrita autumnata) outbreak that lasted for two growing seasons-producing a window of opportunity for V. vitis-idaea to utilize the extra light available as the abundance of V. myrtillus decreased, while at the same time benefitting from the increased growth in the warmed plots. Even though the effect of the herbivore attacks did not differ between treatments they may have obscured any additional treatment effects. This long-term study highlights that also the effects of stochastic herbivory events need to be accounted for when predicting future plant community changes.

Changes versus homeostasis in alpine and sub-alpine vegetation over three decades in the sub-arctic.

Plant species distributions are expected to shift and diversity is expected to decline as a result of global climate change, particularly in the Arctic where climate warming is amplified. We have recorded the changes in richness and abundance of vascular plants at Abisko, sub-Arctic Sweden, by re-sampling five studies consisting of seven datasets; one in the mountain birch forest and six at open sites. The oldest study was initiated in 1977-1979 and the latest in 1992. Total species number increased at all sites except for the birch forest site where richness decreased. We found no general pattern in how composition of vascular plants has changed over time. Three species, Calamagrostis lapponica, Carex vaginata and Salix reticulata, showed an overall increase in cover/frequency, while two Equisetum taxa decreased. Instead, we showed that the magnitude and direction of changes in species richness and composition differ among sites.