Observed Injury Rates Did Not Follow Theoretically Predicted Injury Risk Patterns in Professional Human Circus Artists.

OBJECTIVE: Identifying which types of athletes have increased injury risk (ie, predictive risk factors) should help develop cost-effective selective injury prevention strategies. Our objective was to compare a theoretical injury risk classification system developed by coaches and rehabilitation therapists, with observed injury rates in human circus acts across dimensions of physical stressors, acrobatic complexity, qualifications, and residual risks. DESIGN: Descriptive epidemiological study. SETTING: professional circus company. PATIENTS OR OTHER PARTICIPANTS: Human circus artists performing in routine roles between 2007 and 2017. ASSESSMENT OF RISK FACTORS: Characteristics of circus acts categorized according to 4 different dimensions. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Medical attention injury rates (injury requiring a visit to the therapist), time-loss injury rates (TL-1; injury resulting in at least one missed performance), and time-loss 15 injury rates (TL-15; injury resulting in at least 15 missed performances). RESULTS: Among 962 artists with 1 373 572 performances, 89.4% (860/962) incurred at least one medical attention injury, 74.2% (714/962) incurred at least one TL-1 injury, and 50.8% (489/962) incurred at least one TL-15 injury. There were important inconsistencies between theoretical and observed injury risk patterns in each of the 4 dimensions for all injury definitions (medical attention, TL-1, and TL-15). CONCLUSIONS: Although theoretical classifications are the only option when no data are available, observed risk patterns based on injury surveillance programs can help identify artists who have a high (or low) theoretical risk but are nonetheless actually at low (or high) risk of injury, given their current roles. This will help develop more cost-effective selective injury prevention programs.

Pulmonary function tests as outcomes for systemic sclerosis interstitial lung disease.

Interstitial lung disease (ILD) is the leading cause of morbidity and mortality in systemic sclerosis (SSc). We performed a systematic review to characterise the use and validation of pulmonary function tests (PFTs) as surrogate markers for systemic sclerosis-associated interstitial lung disease (SSc-ILD) progression.Five electronic databases were searched to identify all relevant studies. Included studies either used at least one PFT measure as a longitudinal outcome for SSc-ILD progression (i.e. outcome studies) and/or reported at least one classical measure of validity for the PFTs in SSc-ILD (i.e. validation studies).This systematic review included 169 outcome studies and 50 validation studies. Diffusing capacity of the lung for carbon monoxide (DLCO) was cumulatively the most commonly used outcome until 2010 when it was surpassed by forced vital capacity (FVC). FVC (% predicted) was the primary endpoint in 70.4% of studies, compared to 11.3% for % predicted DLCO Only five studies specifically aimed to validate the PFTs: two concluded that DLCO was the best measure of SSc-ILD extent, while the others did not favour any PFT. These studies also showed respectable validity measures for total lung capacity (TLC).Despite the current preference for FVC, available evidence suggests that DLCO and TLC should not yet be discounted as potential surrogate markers for SSc-ILD progression.

Enteric disease episodes and the risk of acquiring a future sexually transmitted infection: a prediction model in Montreal residents.

OBJECTIVE: The sexual transmission of enteric diseases poses an important public health challenge. We aimed to build a prediction model capable of identifying individuals with a reported enteric disease who could be at risk of acquiring future sexually transmitted infections (STIs). MATERIALS AND METHODS: Passive surveillance data on Montreal residents with at least 1 enteric disease report was used to construct the prediction model. Cases were defined as all subjects with at least 1 STI report following their initial enteric disease episode. A final logistic regression prediction model was chosen using forward stepwise selection. RESULTS: The prediction model with the greatest validity included age, sex, residential location, number of STI episodes experienced prior to the first enteric disease episode, type of enteric disease acquired, and an interaction term between age and male sex. This model had an area under the curve of 0.77 and had acceptable calibration. DISCUSSION: A coordinated public health response to the sexual transmission of enteric diseases requires that a distinction be made between cases of enteric diseases transmitted through sexual activity from those transmitted through contaminated food or water. A prediction model can aid public health officials in identifying individuals who may have a higher risk of sexually acquiring a reportable disease. Once identified, these individuals could receive specialized intervention to prevent future infection. CONCLUSION: The information produced from a prediction model capable of identifying higher risk individuals can be used to guide efforts in investigating and controlling reported cases of enteric diseases and STIs.

Comparison of different measures of diffusing capacity for carbon monoxide (DLCO) in systemic sclerosis.

In systemic sclerosis (SSc), impaired diffusing capacity for carbon monoxide (DLCO) can indicate interstitial lung disease (ILD), pulmonary hypertension (PH), and/or other disease manifestations, including anemia. We undertook this study to compare the various measures of DLCO in the setting of a complex disease like SSc. We analyzed the pulmonary function tests of a cohort of SSc subjects, as a whole and among subjects with isolated PH and ILD separately. Associations were assessed using Spearman correlation coefficients, Student's t tests, and F tests by one-way ANOVA. P values <0.05 were considered statistically significant. This study included 225 subjects (mean age, 57 years; 88 % women; mean disease duration, 9.6 years; 32 % with diffuse disease, 44 % with ILD, and 17 % with PH). Mean percent predicted DLCO values were 75 % for DLCOsb and 83 % for DLCOrb. Adjustment for alveolar volume (VA) resulted in near normalization of both DLCOsb/VAsb (91 %) and DLCOrb/VArb (91 %). Subjects with ILD had significantly lower DLCOsb but not DLCOsb/VAsb, whereas those with PH had significantly lower DLCOsb and DLCOsb/VAsb. Among the various measures of DLCO, DLCOsb had the strongest and most consistent associations with clinical outcomes of interest. Adjusting for alveolar volume dampened the associations except with PH, with which DLCOsb/VAsb was more strongly associated than DLCOsb. Low DLCOsb is the most sensitive measure to detect abnormalities in gas exchange in SSc but reflects both parenchymal lung disease and pulmonary vascular disease. Low DLCOsb/VAsb is more specific for pulmonary vascular disease and should be the preferred measure of gas exchange in SSc.

Longitudinal study of renal function in systemic sclerosis.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the prevalence of renal disease and the course of renal function over time in patients with systemic sclerosis (SSc). METHODS: We performed a multicenter, longitudinal study of 561 patients with SSc followed in the Canadian Scleroderma Research Group registry. Renal function was measured by the estimated creatinine clearance rate (eCcr) using the Cockcroft-Gault formula. Longitudinal changes in renal function were modeled using statistical analyses that adjusted for patient dropout. RESULTS: Among the study subjects, 112 (20%) had abnormal renal function with no history of scleroderma renal crisis (SRC) and 29 (5%) had a history of SRC at baseline. In models adjusting for patient dropout, we found that patients with abnormal baseline renal function experienced the same annual decline in eCcr as patients with normal baseline renal function (-0.89% per year, 95% CI -2.02%, 0.26%), which is similar to that observed in the general population. Patients with a history of SRC also showed the same rate of decline, although starting from a lower baseline. CONCLUSION: Renal dysfunction is common in SSc, even among those without a history of SRC. It is generally mild and renal function declines at a rate similar to the general population. These data are of considerable prognostic value for clinicians caring for patients with SSc.