Association of a healthy lifestyle with mortality in older people.

BACKGROUND: Unhealthy lifestyle behaviours such as smoking, high alcohol consumption, poor diet or low physical activity are associated with morbidity and mortality. Public health guidelines provide recommendations for adherence to these four factors, however, their relationship to the health of older people is less certain. METHODS: The study involved 11,340 Australian participants (median age 7.39 [Interquartile Range (IQR) 71.7, 77.3]) from the ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly study, followed for a median of 6.8 years (IQR: 5.7, 7.9). We investigated whether a point-based lifestyle score based on adherence to guidelines for a healthy diet, physical activity, non-smoking and moderate alcohol consumption was associated with subsequent all-cause and cause-specific mortality. RESULTS: In multivariable adjusted models, compared to those in the unfavourable lifestyle group, individuals in the moderate lifestyle group (Hazard Ratio (HR) 0.73 [95% CI 0.61, 0.88]) and favourable lifestyle group (HR 0.68 [95% CI 0.56, 0.83]) had lower risk of all-cause mortality. A similar pattern was observed for cardiovascular related mortality and non-cancer/non-cardiovascular related mortality. There was no association of lifestyle with cancer-related mortality. CONCLUSIONS: In a large cohort of initially healthy older people, reported adherence to a healthy lifestyle is associated with reduced risk of all-cause and cause-specific mortality. Adherence to all four lifestyle factors resulted in the strongest protection.

Associations of Change in Body Size With All-Cause and Cause-Specific Mortality Among Healthy Older Adults.

Importance: The association between weight change and subsequent cause-specific mortality among older adults is not well described. The significance of changes in waist circumference (WC) has also not been compared with weight change for this purpose. Objective: To examine the associations of changes in body weight and WC with all-cause and cause-specific mortality. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study is a post hoc analysis of data from the Aspirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly (ASPREE) randomized clinical trial, which recruited participants between March 1, 2010, and December 31, 2014. The study included community-based older adults (16 703 Australian participants aged ≥70 years and 2411 US participants aged ≥65 years) without evident cardiovascular disease (CVD), dementia, physical disability, or life-limiting chronic illness. Data analysis was performed from April to September 2022. Exposures: Body weight and WC were measured at baseline and at annual visit 2. Analysis models were adjusted for baseline body mass index because height and weight were measured at baseline, allowing for calculation of body mass index and other variables. Both body weight and WC changes were categorized as change within 5% (stable), decrease by 5% to 10%, decrease by more than 10%, increase by 5% to 10%, and increase by more than 10%. Main Outcomes and Measures: All-cause, cancer-specific, CVD-specific, and noncancer non-CVD-specific mortality. Mortality events were adjudicated by an expert review panel. Cox proportional hazards regression and competing risk analyses were used to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs. Results: Among 16 523 participants (mean [SD] age, 75.0 [4.3] years; 9193 women [55.6%]), 1256 deaths were observed over a mean (SD) of 4.4 (1.7) years. Compared with men with stable weight, those with a 5% to 10% weight loss had a 33% higher (HR, 1.33; 95% CI, 1.07-1.66) risk of all-cause mortality, and those with more than a 10% decrease in body weight had a 289% higher (HR, 3.89; 95% CI, 2.93-5.18) risk. Compared with women with stable weight, those with a 5% to 10% weight loss had a 26% higher (HR, 1.26; 95% CI, 1.00-1.60) risk of all-cause mortality, and those with more than a 10% decrease in body weight had a 114% higher (HR, 2.14; 95% CI, 1.58-2.91) risk. Weight loss was associated with a higher cancer-specific mortality (>10% decrease among men: HR, 3.49; 95% CI, 2.26-5.40; 5%-10% decrease among women: HR, 1.44; 95% CI, 1.46-2.04; >10% decrease among women: HR, 2.78; 95% CI, 1.82-4.26), CVD-specific mortality (>10% decrease among men: HR, 3.14; 95% CI, 1.63-6.04; >10% decrease among women: HR, 1.92; 95% CI, 1.05-3.51), and noncancer non-CVD-specific mortality (>10% decrease among men: HR, 4.98; 95% CI, 3.14-7.91). A decrease in WC was also associated with mortality. Conclusions and Relevance: This cohort study of healthy older adults suggests that weight loss was associated with an increase in all-cause and cause-specific mortality, including an increased risk of cancer, CVD, and other life-limiting conditions. Physicians should be aware of the significance of weight loss, especially among older men.

Prediabetes, diabetes and loss of disability-free survival in a community-based older cohort: a post-hoc analysis of the ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly trial.

BACKGROUND: Evidence for the prognostic implications of hyperglycaemia in older adults is inconsistent. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate disability-free survival (DFS) in older individuals by glycaemic status. METHODS: This analysis used data from a randomised trial recruiting 19,114 community-based participants aged ≥70 years, who had no prior cardiovascular events, dementia and physical disability. Participants with sufficient information to ascertain their baseline diabetes status were categorised as having normoglycaemia (fasting plasma glucose [FPG] < 5.6 mmol/l, 64%), prediabetes (FPG 5.6 to <7.0 mmol/l, 26%) and diabetes (self-report or FPG ≥ 7.0 mmol/l or use of glucose-lowering agents, 11%). The primary outcome was loss of disability-free survival (DFS), a composite of all-cause mortality, persistent physical disability or dementia. Other outcomes included the three individual components of the DFS loss, as well as cognitive impairment-no dementia (CIND), major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) and any cardiovascular event. Cox models were used for outcome analyses, with covariate adjustment using inverse-probability weighting. RESULTS: We included 18,816 participants (median follow-up: 6.9 years). Compared to normoglycaemia, participants with diabetes had greater risks of DFS loss (weighted HR: 1.39, 95% CI 1.21-1.60), all-cause mortality (1.45, 1.23-1.72), persistent physical disability (1.73, 1.35-2.22), CIND (1.22, 1.08-1.38), MACE (1.30, 1.04-1.63) and cardiovascular events (1.25, 1.02-1.54) but not dementia (1.13, 0.87-1.47). The prediabetes group did not have an excess risk for DFS loss (1.02, 0.93-1.12) or other outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: Among older people, diabetes was associated with reduced DFS, and higher risk of CIND and cardiovascular outcomes, whereas prediabetes was not. The impact of preventing or treating diabetes in this age group deserves closer attention.

Associations of body size with all-cause and cause-specific mortality in healthy older adults.

In the general population, body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference are recognized risk factors for several chronic diseases and all-cause mortality. However, whether these associations are the same for older adults is less clear. The association of baseline BMI and waist circumference with all-cause and cause-specific mortality was investigated in 18,209 Australian and US participants (mean age: 75.1 ± 4.5 years) from the ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly (ASPREE) study, followed up for a median of 6.9 years (IQR: 5.7, 8.0). There were substantially different relationships observed in men and women. In men, the lowest risk of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality was observed with a BMI in the range 25.0-29.9 kg/m2 [HR25-29.9 vs 21-24.9 kg/m2: 0.85; 95% CI, 0.73-1.00] while the highest risk was in those who were underweight [HRBMI <21 kg/m2 vs BMI 21-24.9 kg/m2: 1.82; 95% CI 1.30-2.55], leading to a clear U-shaped relationship. In women, all-cause mortality was highest in those with the lowest BMI leading to a J-shaped relationship (HRBMI <21 kg/m2 vs BMI 21-24.9 kg/m2: 1.64; 95% CI 1.26-2.14). Waist circumference showed a weaker relationship with all-cause mortality in both men and women. There was little evidence of a relationship between either index of body size and subsequent cancer mortality in men or women, while non-cardiovascular non-cancer mortality was higher in underweight participants. For older men, being overweight was found to be associated with a lower risk of all-cause mortality, while among both men and women, a BMI in the underweight category was associated with a higher risk. Waist circumference alone had little association with all-cause or cause-specific mortality risk.Trial registration ASPREE https://ClinicalTrials.gov number NCT01038583.

Polygenic Risk Score for Defining Personalized Surveillance Intervals After Adenoma Detection and Removal at Colonoscopy.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) could help to define personalized colorectal cancer (CRC) screening strategies. The aim of this study was to evaluate whether a PRS, along with adenoma characteristics, could help to define more personalized and risk-adapted surveillance intervals. METHODS: In a population-based, case-control study from Germany, detailed information on previous colonoscopies and a PRS based on 140 CRC-related, single-nucleotide polymorphisms was obtained from 4696 CRC cases and 3709 controls. Participants were classified as having low, medium, or high genetic risk according to tertiles of PRSs among controls. We calculated the absolute risk of CRC based on the PRS and colonoscopy history and findings. RESULTS: We observed major variations of CRC risk according to the PRS, including among individuals with detection and removal of adenomas at colonoscopy. For instance, the estimated 10-year absolute risk of CRC for 50-year-old men and women with no polyps, for whom repeat screening colonoscopy is recommended after 10 years only, was 0.2%. Equivalent absolute risks were estimated for people with low-risk adenomas and low PRS. However, the same levels of absolute risk were reached within 3 to 5 years by those with low-risk adenomas and high PRS and with high-risk adenomas irrespective of the PRS. CONCLUSIONS: Consideration of genetic predisposition to CRC risk, as determined by a PRS, could help to define personalized, risk-adapted surveillance intervals after detection and removal of adenomas at screening colonoscopy. However, whether the risk variation is strong enough to direct clinical risk stratification needs to be explored further.

The power of a healthy lifestyle for cancer prevention: the example of colorectal cancer.

OBJECTIVE: We aimed to directly compare the estimated effects of adherence to a healthy lifestyle with those of risk predisposition according to known genetic variants affecting colorectal cancer (CRC) risk, to support effective risk communication for cancer prevention. METHODS: A healthy lifestyle score (HLS) was derived from 5 lifestyle factors: smoking, alcohol consumption, diet, physical activity, and body adiposity. The association of lifestyle and polygenic risk score (PRS) (based on 140 CRC-associated risk loci) with CRC risk was assessed with multiple logistic regression and compared through the genetic risk equivalent (GRE), a novel approach providing an estimate of the effects of adherence to a healthy lifestyle in terms of percentile differences in PRS. RESULTS: A higher HLS was associated with lower CRC risk (4,844 cases, 3,964 controls). Those adhering to all 5 healthy lifestyle factors had a 62% (95% CI 54%-68%) lower CRC risk than those adhering to ≤ 2 healthy lifestyle factors. The estimated effect of adherence to all 5 compared with ≤ 2 healthy lifestyle factors was as strong as the effect of having a 79 percentile (GRE 79, 95% CI 61-97) lower PRS. The association between a healthy lifestyle and CRC risk was independent of PRS level but was particularly pronounced among those with a family history of CRC in ≥ 1 first-degree relative (P-interaction = 0.0013). CONCLUSIONS: A healthy lifestyle was strongly inversely associated with CRC risk. The large GRE indicated that CRC risk determined by polygenic risk may be offset to a substantial extent by adherence to a healthy lifestyle.

Change Toward Healthier Lifestyles Is Associated With Better Health-Related Quality of Life in Long-Term Colorectal Cancer Survivors.

BACKGROUND: Little is known about how changes in a constellation of lifestyle factors affect health-related quality of life (HRQoL) in colorectal cancer (CRC) survivors. Our study aimed to investigate the association between changes in healthy lifestyle and HRQoL over time in survivors of stage I-IV CRC. METHODS: We included 2,283 long-term (≥5 years postdiagnosis) survivors. A healthy lifestyle score (HLS) comprising smoking, alcohol consumption, diet, physical activity, and body fatness was derived at diagnosis and 5-year follow-up (5YFU) and categorized as low, moderate, or high. We assessed HRQoL with the EORTC Quality of Life Questionnaire-Core 30 at 5YFU and 10-year follow-up. We used multivariable linear regression and linear mixed models to explore associations between changes in HLS and HRQoL over follow-up. RESULTS: A low baseline HLS was associated with poorer functioning and global health/QoL and a higher symptom burden at 5YFU compared with a high baseline HLS. An improved HLS from baseline to 5YFU was associated with better functioning, higher global health/QoL, and fewer symptoms at 5YFU than a maintained-high HLS. In longitudinal analyses, improved HLS was associated with better functioning at follow-up. Survivors with a maintained-high or an improved HLS reported generally less fatigue, pain, and dyspnea at follow-ups compared with survivors with a maintained-low or decreased HLS. CONCLUSIONS: Change toward a healthier lifestyle since diagnosis was associated with better HRQoL in long-term CRC survivors. Our results support the importance of maintaining and/or promoting a healthier lifestyle among CRC survivors postdiagnosis.

Cardiovascular Disease in Adult Cancer Survivors: a Review of Current Evidence, Strategies for Prevention and Management, and Future Directions for Cardio-oncology.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Cardiovascular disease is long-term complication of both cancer and anti-cancer treatment and can have significant ramifications for health-related quality of life and mortality. This narrative review explores the current evidence linking cardiovascular disease and cancer, as well as exploring strategies for the prevention and management of cardiovascular disease, and outlines future opportunities in the field of cardio-oncology. RECENT FINDINGS: Cancer confers risk for various cardiovascular diseases including heart failure, cardiomyopathy, arrhythmia, coronary heart disease, stroke, venous thromboembolism, and valvular heart disease. Cancer treatment, in particular agents such as platinum-based chemotherapy, anthracyclines, hormonal treatments, and thoracic radiotherapy, further increases risk. While cardiovascular disease can be identified early and effectively managed in cancer survivors, cardiovascular screening and management does not typically feature in routine long-term cancer care of adult cancer survivors. Cancer and cancer treatment can accelerate the development of cardiovascular disease. Further research into screening and management strategies for cardiovascular disease, along with evidence-based guidelines, is required to ensure adult cancer survivors receive appropriate long-term care.

Variation in Mean Arterial Pressure Increases Falls Risk in Elderly Physically Frail and Prefrail Individuals Treated With Antihypertensive Medication.

BACKGROUND: Impaired cerebral blood flow has been associated with an increased risk of falls. Mean arterial pressure (MAP) and variability in MAP have been reported to affect cerebral blood flow but their relationships to the risk of falls have not previously been reported. METHODS: Utilising data from the Aspirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly trial participants, we estimated MAP and variability in MAP, defined as within-individual SD of MAP from baseline and first 2 annual visits. The relationship with MAP was studied in 16 703 participants amongst whom 1539 falls were recorded over 7.3 years. Variability in MAP was studied in 14 818 of these participants who experienced 974 falls over 4.1 years. Falls were confined to those involving hospital presentation. Cox regression was used to calculate hazard ratio and 95% CI for associations with falls. RESULTS: Long-term variability in MAP was not associated with falls except amongst frail or prefrail participants using antihypertensive medications. Within this group each 5 mm Hg increase in long-term variability in MAP increased the risk of falls by 16% (hazard ratio, 1.16 [95% CI, 1.02-1.33]). Amongst the antihypertensive drugs studied, beta-blocker monotherapy (hazard ratio, 1.93 [95% CI, 1.17-3.18]) was associated with an increased risk of falls compared with calcium channel blockers. CONCLUSIONS: Higher levels of long-term variability in MAP increase the risk of serious falls in older frail and prefrail individuals taking antihypertensive medications. The observation that the relationship was limited to frail and prefrail individuals might explain some of the variability of previous studies linking blood pressure indices and falls.

How does the onset of physical disability or dementia in older adults affect economic wellbeing and co-payments for health care? the impact of gender.

BACKGROUND: Existing studies have illustrated how the onset of physical disability or dementia negatively impacts economic wellbeing and increases out of pocket costs. However, little is known about this relationship in older individuals. Consequently, this study aimed to identify how the onset of physical disability or dementia in older adults affects economic wellbeing and out of pocket costs, and to explore the impact of gender in the context of Australia. METHODS: The data was collected from a large, randomized clinical study, ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly (ASPREE). Two generalized linear models (with and without interaction effects) of total out of pocket costs for those who did and did not develop physical disability or dementia were generated, with adjustment for sociodemographic characteristics at baseline. RESULTS: We included 8,568 older Australian individuals with a mean age of 74.8 years and 53.2% being females. After adjustment for the baseline sociodemographic characteristics, the onset of physical disability did statistically significantly raise out of pocket costs (cost ratio = 1.25) and costs among females were 13.1% higher than males. CONCLUSIONS: This study highlights that classifying different types of health conditions to identify the drivers of out of pocket costs and to explore the gender differences in a long-term follow-up is of importance to examine the financial impact on the older population. These negative financial impacts and gender disparities of physical disability and dementia must be considered by policymakers.

Prediction of disability-free survival in healthy older people.

Prolonging survival in good health is a fundamental societal goal. However, the leading determinants of disability-free survival in healthy older people have not been well established. Data from ASPREE, a bi-national placebo-controlled trial of aspirin with 4.7 years median follow-up, was analysed. At enrolment, participants were healthy and without prior cardiovascular events, dementia or persistent physical disability. Disability-free survival outcome was defined as absence of dementia, persistent disability or death. Selection of potential predictors from amongst 25 biomedical, psychosocial and lifestyle variables including recognized geriatric risk factors, utilizing a machine-learning approach. Separate models were developed for men and women. The selected predictors were evaluated in a multivariable Cox proportional hazards model and validated internally by bootstrapping. We included 19,114 Australian and US participants aged ≥65 years (median 74 years, IQR 71.6-77.7). Common predictors of a worse prognosis in both sexes included higher age, lower Modified Mini-Mental State Examination score, lower gait speed, lower grip strength and abnormal (low or elevated) body mass index. Additional risk factors for men included current smoking, and abnormal eGFR. In women, diabetes and depression were additional predictors. The biased-corrected areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves for the final prognostic models at 5 years were 0.72 for men and 0.75 for women. Final models showed good calibration between the observed and predicted risks. We developed a prediction model in which age, cognitive function and gait speed were the strongest predictors of disability-free survival in healthy older people.Trial registration Clinicaltrials.gov (NCT01038583).

Aspirin and the Risk of Colorectal Cancer According to Genetic Susceptibility among Older Individuals.

Although aspirin has been considered a promising agent for prevention of colorectal cancer, recent data suggest a lack of benefit among older individuals. Whether some individuals with higher risk of colorectal cancer may benefit from aspirin remains unknown. We used a 95-variant colorectal cancer polygenic risk score (PRS) to explore the association between genetic susceptibility to colorectal cancer and aspirin use in a prospective study of 12,609 individuals of European descent ages ≥70 years, enrolled in the ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly (ASPREE) double-blinded, placebo-controlled randomized trial (randomized controlled trial; RCT). Cox proportional hazards models were used to assess the association of aspirin use on colorectal cancer, as well as the interaction between the PRS and aspirin treatment on colorectal cancer. Over a median of 4.7 years follow-up, 143 participants were diagnosed with incident colorectal cancer. Aspirin assignment was not associated with incidence of colorectal cancer overall [HR = 0.94; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.68-1.30] or within strata of PRS (P for interaction = 0.97). However, the PRS was associated with an increased risk of colorectal cancer (HR = 1.28 per SD; 95% CI, 1.09-1.51). Individuals in the top quintile of the PRS distribution had an 85% higher risk compared with individuals in the bottom quintile (HR = 1.85; 95% CI, 1.08-3.15). In a prospective RCT of older individuals, a PRS is associated with incident colorectal cancer risk, but aspirin use was not associated with a reduction of incident colorectal cancer, regardless of baseline genetic risk. PREVENTION RELEVANCE: There is strong evidence to support prophylactic aspirin use for the prevention of colorectal cancer. However recent recommendations suggest the risk of bleeding in older individuals outweighs the benefit. We sought to determine whether some older individuals might still benefit from aspirin based on their genetic susceptibility.

A multistate model of health transitions in older people: a secondary analysis of ASPREE clinical trial data.

BACKGROUND: Understanding the nature of transitions from a healthy state to chronic diseases and death is important for planning health-care system requirements and interventions. We aimed to quantify the trajectories of disease and disability in a population of healthy older people. METHODS: We conducted a secondary analysis of data from the ASPREE trial, which was done in 50 sites in Australia and the USA and recruited community-dwelling, healthy individuals who were aged 70 years or older (≥65 years for Black and Hispanic people in the USA) between March 10, 2010, and Dec 24, 2014. Participants were followed up with annual face-to-face visits, biennial assessments of cognitive function, and biannual visits for physical function until death or June 12, 2017, whichever occurred first. We used multistate models to examine transitions from a healthy state to first intermediate disease events (ie, cancer events, stroke events, cardiac events, and physical disability or dementia) and, ultimately, to death. We also examined the effects of age and sex on transition rates using Cox proportional hazards regression models. FINDINGS: 19 114 participants with a median age of 74·0 years (IQR 71·6-77·7) were included in our analyses. During a median follow-up of 4·7 years (IQR 3·6-5·7), 1933 (10·1%) of 19 114 participants had an incident cancer event, 487 (2·5%) had an incident cardiac event, 398 (2·1%) had an incident stroke event, 924 (4·8%) developed persistent physical disability or dementia, and 1052 (5·5%) died. 15 398 (80·6%) individuals did not have any of these events during follow-up. The highest proportion of deaths followed incident cancer (501 [47·6%] of 1052) and 129 (12·3%) participants transitioned from disability or dementia to death. Among 12 postulated transitions, transitions from the intermediate states to death had much higher rates than transitions from a healthy state to death. The progression rates to death were 158 events per 1000 person-years (95% CI 144-172) from cancer, 112 events per 1000 person-years (86-145) from stroke, 88 events per 1000 person-years (68-111) from cardiac disease, 69 events per 1000 person-years (58-82) from disability or dementia, and four events per 1000 person-years (4-5) from a healthy state. Age was significantly associated with an accelerated rate for most transitions. Male sex (vs female sex) was significantly associated with an accelerate rate for five of 12 transitions. INTERPRETATION: We describe a multistate model in a healthy older population in whom the most common transition was from a healthy state to cancer. Our findings provide unique insights into the frequency of events, their transition rates, and the impact of age and sex. These results have implications for preventive health interventions and planning for appropriate levels of residential care in healthy ageing populations. FUNDING: The National Institutes of Health.

A Polygenic Risk Score Predicts Incident Prostate Cancer Risk in Older Men but Does Not Select for Clinically Significant Disease.

Despite the high prevalence of prostate cancer in older men, the predictive value of a polygenic risk score (PRS) remains uncertain in men aged ≥70 years. We used a 6.6 million-variant PRS to predict the risk of incident prostate cancer in a prospective study of 5701 men of European descent aged ≥70 years (mean age 75 years) enrolled in the ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly (ASPREE) clinical trial. The study endpoint was prostate cancer, including metastatic or non-metastatic disease, confirmed by an expert panel. After excluding participants with a history of prostate cancer at enrolment, we used a multivariable Cox proportional hazards model to assess the association between the PRS and incident prostate cancer risk, adjusting for covariates. Additionally, we examined the distribution of Gleason grade groups by PRS group to determine if a higher PRS was associated with higher grade disease. We tested for interaction between the PRS and aspirin treatment. Logistic regression was used to independently assess the association of the PRS with prevalent (pre-trial) prostate cancer, reported in medical histories. During a median follow-up time of 4.6 years, 218 of the 5701 participants (3.8%) were diagnosed with prostate cancer. The PRS predicted incident risk with a hazard ratio (HR) of 1.52 per standard deviation (SD) (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.33-1.74, p < 0.001). Men in the top quintile of the PRS distribution had an almost three times higher risk of prostate cancer than men in the lowest quintile (HR = 2.99 (95% CI 1.90-4.27), p < 0.001). However, a higher PRS was not associated with a higher Gleason grade groups. We found no interaction between aspirin treatment and the PRS for prostate cancer risk. The PRS was also associated with prevalent prostate cancer (odds ratio = 1.80 per SD (95% CI 1.65-1.96), p < 0.001).While a PRS for prostate cancer is strongly associated with incident risk in men aged ≥70 years, the clinical utility of the PRS as a biomarker is currently limited by its inability to select for clinically significant disease.

Smoking Behavior and Prognosis After Colorectal Cancer Diagnosis: A Pooled Analysis of 11 Studies.

Background: Smoking has been associated with colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence and mortality in previous studies, but current evidence on smoking in association with survival after CRC diagnosis is limited. Methods: We pooled data from 12 345 patients with stage I-IV CRC from 11 epidemiologic studies in the International Survival Analysis in Colorectal Cancer Consortium. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to evaluate the associations of prediagnostic smoking behavior with overall, CRC-specific, and non-CRC-specific survival. Results: Among 12 345 patients with CRC, 4379 (35.5%) died (2515 from CRC) over a median follow-up time of 7.5 years. Smoking was strongly associated with worse survival in stage I-III patients, whereas no association was observed among stage IV patients. Among stage I-III patients, clear dose-response relationships with all survival outcomes were seen for current smokers. For example, current smokers with 40 or more pack-years had statistically significantly worse overall, CRC-specific, and non-CRC-specific survival compared with never smokers (hazard ratio [HR] =1.94, 95% confidence interval [CI] =1.68 to 2.25; HR = 1.41, 95% CI = 1.12 to 1.78; and HR = 2.67, 95% CI = 2.19 to 3.26, respectively). Similar associations with all survival outcomes were observed for former smokers who had quit for less than 10 years, but only a weak association with non-CRC-specific survival was seen among former smokers who had quit for more than 10 years. Conclusions: This large consortium of CRC patient studies provides compelling evidence that smoking is strongly associated with worse survival of stage I-III CRC patients in a clear dose-response manner. The detrimental effect of smoking was primarily related to noncolorectal cancer events, but current heavy smoking also showed an association with CRC-specific survival.

Genomic Risk Prediction for Breast Cancer in Older Women.

Genomic risk prediction models for breast cancer (BC) have been predominantly developed with data from women aged 40-69 years. Prospective studies of older women aged ≥70 years have been limited. We assessed the effect of a 313-variant polygenic risk score (PRS) for BC in 6339 older women aged ≥70 years (mean age 75 years) enrolled into the ASPREE trial, a randomized double-blind placebo-controlled clinical trial investigating the effect of daily 100 mg aspirin on disability-free survival. We evaluated incident BC diagnoses over a median follow-up time of 4.7 years. A multivariable Cox regression model including conventional BC risk factors was applied to prospective data, and re-evaluated after adding the PRS. We also assessed the association of rare pathogenic variants (PVs) in BC susceptibility genes (BRCA1/BRCA2/PALB2/CHEK2/ATM). The PRS, as a continuous variable, was an independent predictor of incident BC (hazard ratio (HR) per standard deviation (SD) = 1.4, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.3-1.6) and hormone receptor (ER/PR)-positive disease (HR = 1.5 (CI 1.2-1.9)). Women in the top quintile of the PRS distribution had over two-fold higher risk of BC than women in the lowest quintile (HR = 2.2 (CI 1.2-3.9)). The concordance index of the model without the PRS was 0.62 (95% CI 0.56-0.68), which improved after addition of the PRS to 0.65 (95% CI 0.59-0.71). Among 41 (0.6%) carriers of PVs in BC susceptibility genes, we observed no incident BC diagnoses. Our study demonstrates that a PRS predicts incident BC risk in women aged 70 years and older, suggesting potential clinical utility extends to this older age group.

Individual and Joint Associations of Genetic Risk and Healthy Lifestyle Score with Colorectal Neoplasms Among Participants of Screening Colonoscopy.

Genetic and lifestyle factors contribute to colorectal cancer risk. We investigated their individual and joint associations with various stages of colorectal carcinogenesis. We assessed associations of a polygenic risk score (PRS) and a healthy lifestyle score (HLS) with presence of nonadvanced adenomas and advanced neoplasms among 2,585 participants of screening colonoscopy from Germany. The PRS and HLS individually showed only weak associations with presence of nonadvanced adenomas; stronger associations were observed with advanced neoplasms (ORs, 95% CI, for highest vs. lowest risk tertile: PRS 2.27, 1.78-2.88; HLS 1.96, 1.53-2.51). The PRS was associated with higher odds of advanced neoplasms among carriers of any neoplasms (1.65, 1.23-2.22). Subjects in the highest risk tertile (vs. lowest tertile) of both scores had higher risks for nonadvanced adenomas (1.77, 1.09-2.86), for advanced neoplasms (3.95, 2.53-6.16) and, among carriers of any neoplasms, for advanced versus nonadvanced neoplasms (2.26, 1.31-3.92). Both scores were individually associated with increased risk of nonadvanced adenomas and, much more pronounced, advanced neoplasms. The similarly strong association in relative terms across all levels of genetic risk implies that a healthy lifestyle may be particularly beneficial in those at highest genetic risk, given that the same relative risk reduction in this group would imply a stronger absolute risk reduction. Genetic factors may be of particular relevance for the transition of nonadvanced to advanced adenomas. PREVENTION RELEVANCE: Genetic factors have strong impact on the risk of colorectal neoplasms, which may be reduced by healthy lifestyle. Similarly strong associations in relative terms across all levels of genetic risk imply that a healthy lifestyle may be beneficial due to higher absolute risk reduction in those at highest genetic risk.

Genetic architectures of proximal and distal colorectal cancer are partly distinct.

OBJECTIVE: An understanding of the etiologic heterogeneity of colorectal cancer (CRC) is critical for improving precision prevention, including individualized screening recommendations and the discovery of novel drug targets and repurposable drug candidates for chemoprevention. Known differences in molecular characteristics and environmental risk factors among tumors arising in different locations of the colorectum suggest partly distinct mechanisms of carcinogenesis. The extent to which the contribution of inherited genetic risk factors for CRC differs by anatomical subsite of the primary tumor has not been examined. DESIGN: To identify new anatomical subsite-specific risk loci, we performed genome-wide association study (GWAS) meta-analyses including data of 48 214 CRC cases and 64 159 controls of European ancestry. We characterised effect heterogeneity at CRC risk loci using multinomial modelling. RESULTS: We identified 13 loci that reached genome-wide significance (p<5×10-8) and that were not reported by previous GWASs for overall CRC risk. Multiple lines of evidence support candidate genes at several of these loci. We detected substantial heterogeneity between anatomical subsites. Just over half (61) of 109 known and new risk variants showed no evidence for heterogeneity. In contrast, 22 variants showed association with distal CRC (including rectal cancer), but no evidence for association or an attenuated association with proximal CRC. For two loci, there was strong evidence for effects confined to proximal colon cancer. CONCLUSION: Genetic architectures of proximal and distal CRC are partly distinct. Studies of risk factors and mechanisms of carcinogenesis, and precision prevention strategies should take into consideration the anatomical subsite of the tumour.

Uptake Rates of Novel Therapies and Survival Among Privately Insured Versus Publicly Insured Patients With Colorectal Cancer in Germany.

BACKGROUND: In the era of personalized medicine, cancer care is subject to major changes and innovations. It is unclear, however, to what extent implementation of such innovations and their impact on patient outcomes differ by health insurance type. This study compared provision of treatment and survival outcomes among patients with colorectal cancer (CRC) who had statutory health insurance (SHI) versus private health insurance (PHI) in Germany. METHODS: We analyzed patterns of CRC treatment (surgery, chemotherapy/radiotherapy, and targeted therapy) and survival in a large cohort of patients who were diagnosed with CRC in 2003 through 2014 and were observed for an average of 6 years. Associations of type of health insurance with treatment administration and with overall, CRC-specific, and recurrence-free survival were investigated using multivariable logistic and Cox proportional hazards models, respectively. RESULTS: Of 3,977 patients with CRC, 427 (11%) had PHI. Although type of health insurance was not associated with treatment administration in patients with stage I-III disease, those with stage IV disease with PHI more often received targeted therapy (65% vs 40%; odds ratio, 2.43; 95% CI, 1.20-4.91), with differences decreasing over time because of catch-up of uptake rates in patients with SHI. Median overall survival was longer in patients with PHI than in those with SHI (137.0 vs 114.9 months; P=.010), but survival advantages were explained to a large extent by differences in sociodemographic factors. In patients with stage IV disease, survival advantages of PHI were nonsignificant and were restricted to the early years after diagnosis. CONCLUSIONS: We observed major differences in uptake of targeted therapy between patients with PHI and those with SHI but no differences in patient survival after adjusting for relevant sociodemographic, clinical, and tumor characteristics. Further studies are needed on factors associated with the uptake of therapeutic innovations and their impact on patient survival by health insurance type.

Colonoscopy and Reduction of Colorectal Cancer Risk by Molecular Tumor Subtypes: A Population-Based Case-Control Study.

INTRODUCTION: In previous studies, the protective effect of colonoscopy was generally stronger for distal colorectal cancer than for proximal colorectal cancer (CRC). This study aimed to investigate whether reduction of CRC risk through colonoscopy varies according to major tumor markers and pathways of CRC. METHODS: This is a population-based case-control study from Germany, including 2,132 patients with a first diagnosis of CRC and information on major molecular tumor markers and 2,486 control participants without CRC. Detailed participant characteristics were collected by standardized questionnaires. Information on previous colonoscopy was derived from medical records. Polytomous logistic regression was used to calculate adjusted odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the association between previous colonoscopy and subtypes of CRC. RESULTS: Overall, we observed strong risk reduction of CRC after colonoscopy that was weaker for microsatellite instable (MSI) than for non-MSI CRC (OR 0.70, 95% CI 0.50-0.97 vs OR 0.28, 95% CI 0.24-0.33), for CpG island methylator phenotype high CRC than for CpG island methylator phenotype low/negative CRC (OR 0.45, 95% CI 0.34-0.59 vs OR 0.29, 95% CI 0.25-0.34), for BRAF-mutated than for BRAF nonmutated CRC (OR 0.62, 95% CI 0.42-0.91 vs OR 0.30, 95% CI 0.25-0.35), for KRAS nonmutated than for KRAS-mutated CRC (OR 0.34, 95% CI 0.29-0.40 vs OR 0.26, 95% CI 0.20-0.32), and for CRC classified into the sessile serrated pathway than for CRC of the traditional pathway (OR 0.57, 95% CI 0.36-0.91 vs OR 0.30, 95% CI 0.25-0.37). After colonoscopy with the detection of adenomas or hyperplastic polyps, no risk reduction was found for sessile serrated pathway CRC, MSI, and BRAF-mutated subtypes. DISCUSSION: Our study extends the molecular understanding of existing differences in risk reduction of proximal and distal CRCs reported by previous studies and may imply important information for improving strategies for timely detection of relevant precursors.