Lessons from COP15 on effective scientific engagement in biodiversity policy processes.

The Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework was adopted by parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity in December 2022. The aftermath of these negotiations provides an opportunity to draw lessons as to how ecological and evolutionary science can more effectively inform policy. We examined key challenges that limit effective engagement by scientists in the biodiversity policy process, drawing parallels with analogous challenges within global climate negotiations. Biodiversity is multifaceted, yet represents only one framing for nature's contributions to people, complicating the nexus between evidence and values in development of the framework's targets. Processes generating biodiversity and driving its loss are multiscalar, challenging development of an evidence base for globally standardized targets. We illustrated these challenges by contrasting development of 2 key elements of the framework. The genetic diversity element of the framework's target 4 is directly related to the framework's primary goals, but its complexity required development of novel engagement skills. The target for protected areas was easily communicated but more indirectly related to biodiversity outcomes; evidence from ecological and social science was essential to communicating the context and limitations of this relationship. Scientists can strengthen the effectiveness of global agreements and address challenges arising from complexity, scaling, capacity limitations, and the interplay of science and values, if they can prioritize communication, consensus-building, and networking skills and engage throughout the process, from development of an evidence base to implementation.

Lecciones de la COP15 sobre la participación científica efectiva en los procesos políticos de biodiversidad Resumen El Marco Global de la Biodiversidad de Kunming­Montreal lo adoptaron los participantes de la Convención sobre la Diversidad Biológica en diciembre 2022. Las consecuencias de estas negociaciones proporcionan una oportunidad para tomar lecciones de cómo la ciencia evolutiva y ecológica puede orientar de mejor manera a las políticas. Examinamos los retos clave que limitan la participación efectiva de los científicos en el proceso de políticas de la biodiversidad, estableciendo paralelismos con los retos análogos en las negociaciones climáticas mundiales. La biodiversidad es multifacética y aun así representa sólo un marco para las contribuciones que tiene la naturaleza para las personas, lo que complica el nexo entre la evidencia y los valores en el desarrollo de los objetivos del marco. Los procesos que generan la biodiversidad y causan su pérdida son multiescalares, lo que representa un reto para el desarrollo de una base de evidencias para tener objetivos mundiales estandarizados. Ilustramos estos retos con el contraste del desarrollo de dos elementos clave del marco. El elemento de la diversidad genética en el objetivo 4 del marco está relacionado directamente con los objetivos principales del marco, pero su complejidad requiere el desarrollo de habilidades novedosas de participación. El objetivo para las áreas protegidas se comunicó con facilidad, pero estuvo relacionado de forma más indirecta con los resultados de biodiversidad; la evidencia de las ciencias sociales y ecológicas fue esencial para comunicar el contexto y las limitaciones de esta relación. Los científicos pueden fortalecer la efectividad de los acuerdos globales y abordar los retos que surgen de la complejidad, el escalamiento, las limitaciones en la capacidad y la interacción de la ciencia y los valores, si pueden priorizar la comunicación, la llegada a consensos y el conocimiento de redes y participan durante el proceso, a partir del desarrollo de una evidencia base hasta la implementación.

Four challenges to an effective national nature assessment.

Comprehensive biodiversity assessments play an essential role in strengthening global and national conservation strategies. The recently announced first U.S. National Nature Assessment (NNA) provides an unparalleled opportunity to comprehensively review status and trends of biodiversity at all levels. This broad context can help in the coordination of actions to conserve individual species and ecosystems. The scientific assessments that informed the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework adopted at the 2022 Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) conference of parties provide models for synthesizing information on trends at multiple levels of biodiversity, including decline in abundance and distribution of species, loss of populations and genetic diversity, and degradation and loss of ecosystems and their services. The assessments then relate these trends to data on drivers of biodiversity loss and pathways to their mitigation. The U.S. NNA can augment such global analyses and avoid the pitfalls encountered by previous U.S. efforts by ensuring policy-relevant design, data accessibility, and inclusivity in process and product and by incorporating spatial data relevant to national and subnational audiences. Although the United States is not formally a CBD party, an effective NNA should take full advantage of the global context by including indicators adopted at the 2022 meeting and incorporating an independent review mechanism that supports periodic stocktaking and ratcheting up of ambition in response to identified shortfalls in stemming biodiversity loss. The challenges to design of an effective U.S. assessment are relevant globally as nations develop assessments and reporting to support the new global biodiversity framework's targets. By considering and incorporating the diverse ways in which society values and benefits from nature, such assessments can help bridge the gap between research and conservation practice and communicate the extent of the biodiversity crisis to the public, fostering broad-based support for transformative change in humanity's relationship to the natural world.

Cuatro obstáculos para una eficaz evaluación nacional de la naturaleza Resumen Las evaluaciones completas de la biodiversidad tienen un papel esencial en el fortalecimiento de las estrategias de conservación nacional y mundial. La recién anunciada Evaluación Nacional de la Naturaleza (ENN) de los EE. UU. proporciona una oportunidad sin precedentes para revisar de manera completa el estado y las tendencias de la biodiversidad en todos los niveles. Este contexto generalizado puede ayudar a la coordinación de acciones para la conservación de especies individuales y ecosistemas. Las evaluaciones científicas que guiaron el Marco Mundial de la Biodiversidad de Kumming-Montreal adoptado en la conferencia de las partes de la Convención sobre la Diversidad Biológica (CBD) de 2022 proporcionan modelos para sintetizar la información sobre las tendencias de la biodiversidad a varios niveles, incluyendo la declinación en abundancia y distribución de especies, pérdida de poblaciones y diversidad genética y la degradación y pérdida de los ecosistemas y sus servicios. Después de esto, las evaluaciones relacionan estas tendencias con la información sobre los causantes de la pérdida de la biodiversidad y las maneras de mitigarla. La ENN de los EE. UU. pueden aumentar estos análisis mundiales y evitar las dificultades enfrentadas por los esfuerzos previos al garantizar un diseño relevante para las políticas, la disponibilidad de datos y la inclusión en el proceso y el producto y también mediante la incorporación de datos espaciales relevantes para el público nacional y subnacional. Aunque los EE. UU. no son una parte formal de la CBD, una ENN efectiva debería aprovechar de lleno el contexto global al incluir los indicadores adoptados en la reunión de 2022 e incorporar un mecanismo independiente de revisión que respalde el balance periódico y el aumento de la ambición en respuesta a las deficiencias detectadas en la contención de la pérdida de biodiversidad. Los retos para diseñar una evaluación estadunidense son relevantes a nivel mundial ya que los países evalúan y reportan para mantener los objetivos mundiales de biodiversidad post-2020. Si consideramos las diferentes maneras en las que la sociedad valora y se beneficia de la naturaleza, dichas evaluaciones pueden ayudar a cerrar la brecha entre la investigación y la práctica de la conservación y a comunicarle al público el nivel de la crisis de la biodiversidad, lo que fomenta el apoyo generalizado para transformar la relación entre la humanidad y el mundo natural.

How percentage-protected targets can support positive biodiversity outcomes.

Global targets for the percentage area of land protected, such as 30% by 2030, have gained increasing prominence, but both their scientific basis and likely effectiveness have been questioned. As with emissions-reduction targets based on desired climate outcomes, percentage-protected targets combine values and science by estimating the area over which conservation actions are required to help achieve desired biodiversity outcomes. Protected areas are essential for achieving many biodiversity targets, in part because many species are highly sensitive to human-associated disturbance. However, because the contribution of protected areas to biodiversity outcomes is contingent on their location, management, governance, threats, and what occurs across the broader landscape matrix, global percentage-protected targets are unavoidably empirical generalizations of ecological patterns and processes across diverse geographies. Percentage-protected targets are insufficient in isolation but can complement other actions and contribute to biodiversity outcomes within a framework that balances accuracy and pragmatism in a global context characterized by imperfect biodiversity data. Ideally, percentage-protected targets serve as anchors that strengthen comprehensive national biodiversity strategies by communicating the level of ambition necessary to reverse current trends of biodiversity loss. If such targets are to fulfill this role within the complex societal process by which both values and science impel conservation actions, conservation scientists must clearly communicate the nature of the evidence base supporting percentage-protected targets and how protected areas can function within a broader landscape managed for sustainable coexistence between people and nature. A new paradigm for protected and conserved areas recognizes that national coordination, incentives, and monitoring should support rather than undermine diverse locally led conservation initiatives. However, the definition of a conserved area must retain a strong focus on biodiversity to remain consistent with the evidence base from which percentage-protected targets were originally derived.

RESUMEN: Las metas globales del porcentaje de área de suelo protegido, como el de 30% para el 2030, han obtenido una prominencia incrementada, a pesar de que se les cuestionen sus bases científicas y la probabilidad de su efectividad. Así como las metas de reducción de emisiones, las metas de porcentaje de protección combinan valores y ciencia mediante la estimación del área que requiere acciones de conservación para ayudar a lograr los resultados deseados de biodiversidad. Las áreas protegidas son esenciales para alcanzar muchas metas de biodiversidad, en parte porque muchas especies son altamente sensibles a las perturbaciones asociadas con el humano. Sin embargo, debido a que la contribución de las áreas protegidas a los resultados de biodiversidad depende de su ubicación, gestión, manejo, amenazas y lo que ocurra a lo largo de la amplia matriz del paisaje, las metas de porcentaje de protección son generalizaciones empíricas inevitables de los patrones y procesos ecológicos en la geografía diversa. Las metas de porcentaje de protección son insuficientes por sí solas, pero pueden complementar a otras acciones y contribuir a los resultados de biodiversidad dentro de un marco de trabajo que balancee la exactitud y el pragmatismo dentro de un contexto global caracterizado por datos imperfectos de la biodiversidad. Idealmente, las metas de porcentaje de protección fungen como pilares que fortalecen las estrategias nacionales integrales de biodiversidad mediante la comunicación del nivel de ambición necesaria para revertir las tendencias actuales de pérdida de la biodiversidad. Si se espera que dichas metas realicen este papel dentro del complejo proceso social en el que tanto los valores como la ciencia impulsan las acciones de conservación, los científicos de la conservación deben comunicar claramente la naturaleza de la base de evidencias que respalda las metas de porcentaje de protección y cómo las áreas protegidas pueden funcionar dentro de un paisaje más amplio gestionado por la coexistencia sustentable entre la naturaleza y las personas. Un nuevo paradigma para las áreas protegidas y conservadas reconoce que la coordinación nacional, los incentivos y el monitoreo deberían respaldar, y no debilitar, a las diferentes iniciativas de conservación llevadas por la población local. Sin embargo, la definición de un área conservada debe mantener un enfoque sólido sobre la biodiversidad para seguir siendo coherente con la base de evidencias de la cual derivaron originalmente las metas de porcentaje de protección.

Maximizing the effectiveness of national commitments to protected area expansion for conserving biodiversity and ecosystem carbon under climate change.

Global commitments to protected area expansion should prioritize opportunities to protect climate refugia and ecosystems which store high levels of irrecoverable carbon, as key components of an effective response to biodiversity loss and climate change. The United States and Canada are responsible for one-sixth of global greenhouse gas emissions but hold extensive natural ecosystems that store globally significant above- and below-ground carbon. Canada has initiated a process of protected area network expansion in concert with efforts at reconciliation with Indigenous Peoples, and acknowledged nature-based solutions as a key aspect of climate change mitigation. The US, although not a party to global biodiversity conventions, has recently committed to protecting 30% of its extent by 2030 and achieving the UNFCCC Paris Agreement's mitigation targets. The opportunities afforded by these dual biodiversity conservation and climate commitments require coordinated national and regional policies to ensure that new protected areas maximize biodiversity-focused adaptation and nature-based mitigation opportunities. We address how global commitments can best inform national policy initiatives which build on existing agency mandates for regional planning and species conservation. Previous analyses of global conservation priorities under climate change have been tenuously linked to policy contexts of individual nations and have lacked information on refugia due to limitations of globally available datasets. Comparison and synthesis of predictions from a range of recently developed refugia metrics allow such data to inform planning despite substantial uncertainty arising from contrasting model assumptions and inputs. A case study for endangered species planning for old-forest-associated species in the US Pacific Northwest demonstrates how regional planning can be nested hierarchically within national biodiversity-focused adaptation and nature-based mitigation strategies which integrate refugia, connectivity, and ecosystem carbon metrics to holistically evaluate the role of different land designations and where carbon mitigation and protection of biodiversity's resilience to climate change can be aligned.

Wolf Delisting Challenges Demonstrate Need for an Improved Framework for Conserving Intraspecific Variation under the Endangered Species Act.

Recent advances in genomics have increased our understanding of geographic patterns of intraspecific variation and the importance of this variation in enhancing species' potential to adapt to novel threats. However, as part of an effort to limit the scope of the Endangered Species Act (ESA), the US government has proposed the removal of the gray wolf from the list of protected species on the basis of a claim that the statute permits a species to be declared recovered given the existence of a single presently secure population. We rebut this interpretation and propose a framework for the conservation of adaptive potential that builds on current agency practice in delineating subspecific recovery units and reconciles the definition of significance in the statute's "distinct population segment" and "significant portion of range" clauses. Such a coordinated policy would enhance the ESA's effectiveness in stemming loss of biodiversity in the face of climate change and other factors altering Earth's ecosystems.

Rewilding in the face of climate change.

Expansion of the global protected-area network has been proposed as a strategy to address threats from accelerating climate change and species extinction. A key step in increasing the effectiveness of such expansion is understanding how novel threats to biodiversity from climate change alter concepts such as rewilding, which have underpinned many proposals for large interconnected reserves. We reviewed potential challenges that climate change poses to rewilding and found that the conservation value of large protected areas persists under climate change. Nevertheless, more attention should be given to protection of microrefugia, macrorefugia, complete environmental gradients, and areas that connect current and future suitable climates and to maintaining ecosystem processes and stabilizing feedbacks via conservation strategies that are resilient to uncertainty regarding climate trends. Because a major element of the threat from climate change stems from its novel geographic patterns, we examined, as an example, the implications for climate-adaptation planning of latitudinal, longitudinal (continental to maritime), and elevational gradients in climate-change exposure across the Yellowstone-to-Yukon region, the locus of an iconic conservation proposal initially designed to conserve wide-ranging carnivore species. In addition to a continued emphasis on conserving intact landscapes, restoration of degraded low-elevation areas within the region is needed to capture sites important for landscape-level climate resilience. Extreme climate exposure projected for boreal North America suggests the need for ambitious goals for expansion of the protected-area network there to include refugia created by topography and ecological features, such as peatlands, whose conservation can also reduce emissions from carbon stored in soil. Qualitative understanding of underlying reserve design rules and the geography of climate-change exposure can strengthen the outcomes of inclusive regional planning processes that identify specific sites for protection.

Retorno a la Vida Silvestre de frente al Cambio Climático Resumen La expansión de la red mundial de áreas protegidas ha sido propuesta como una estrategia para tratar con las amenazas del creciente cambio climático y la extinción de especies. Un paso importante para el incremento de la efectividad de dicha expansión es el entendimiento de cómo las amenazas novedosas para la biodiversidad que provienen del cambio climático alteran conceptos como el retorno a la vida silvestre, el cual ha apuntalado muchas propuestas de grandes reservas interconectadas. Revisamos los obstáculos potenciales que representan el cambio climático para el retorno a la vida silvestre y encontramos que el valor de conservación de las áreas protegidas grandes persiste bajo el cambio climático. Sin embargo, se le debería brindar mayor atención a la protección de los microrefugios, del gradiente ambiental completo y de las áreas que conectan climas adecuados actuales y futuros. También se le debe brindar atención al mantenimiento de los procesos ambientales y a la estabilización de la retroalimentación por medio las estrategias de conservación que son resilientes a la incertidumbre relacionada con las tendencias climáticas. Ya que un elemento principal de la amenaza que representa el cambio climático surge de sus patrones geográficos novedosos examinamos, como ejemplo, las implicaciones de los gradientes latitudinales, longitudinales (continental a marítima) y altitudinales para la planeación de la adaptación climática dentro de la exposición al cambio climático en toda la región de Yellowstone a Yukón, el sitio de una propuesta icónica de conservación diseñada inicialmente para conservar especies carnívoras de amplia distribución. Además de un énfasis continuo sobre la conservación intacta del paisaje, se requiere la restauración de las áreas degradadas de baja elevación dentro de la región para capturar los sitios importantes para la resiliencia climática a nivel de paisaje. La exposición climática extrema proyectada para la parte boreal de América del Norte sugiere que se necesitan metas ambiciosas para la expansión de la red de áreas protegidas que se encuentran allí para incluir también a los refugios creados por la topografía y las características ecológicas, como las turberas, cuya conservación también puede reducir las emisiones de carbono almacenado en el suelo. El entendimiento cualitativo de las reglas subyacentes de diseño de reservas y la geografía de la exposición al cambio climático puede fortalecer los resultados de los procesos de planeación regional incluyente para identificar los sitios específicos que requieren protección.

Human land uses reduce climate connectivity across North America.

Climate connectivity, the ability of a landscape to promote or hinder the movement of organisms in response to a changing climate, is contingent on multiple factors including the distance organisms need to move to track suitable climate over time (i.e. climate velocity) and the resistance they experience along such routes. An additional consideration which has received less attention is that human land uses increase resistance to movement or alter movement routes and thus influence climate connectivity. Here we evaluate the influence of human land uses on climate connectivity across North America by comparing two climate connectivity scenarios, one considering climate change in isolation and the other considering climate change and human land uses. In doing so, we introduce a novel metric of climate connectivity, 'human exposure', that quantifies the cumulative exposure to human activities that organisms may encounter as they shift their ranges in response to climate change. We also delineate potential movement routes and evaluate whether the protected area network supports movement corridors better than non-protected lands. We found that when incorporating human land uses, climate connectivity decreased; climate velocity increased on average by 0.3 km/year and cumulative climatic resistance increased for ~83% of the continent. Moreover, ~96% of movement routes in North America must contend with human land uses to some degree. In the scenario that evaluated climate change in isolation, we found that protected areas do not support climate corridors at a higher rate than non-protected lands across North America. However, variability is evident, as many ecoregions contain protected areas that exhibit both more and less representation of climate corridors compared to non-protected lands. Overall, our study indicates that previous evaluations of climate connectivity underestimate climate change exposure because they do not account for human impacts.

Biological and Sociopolitical Sources of Uncertainty in Population Viability Analysis for Endangered Species Recovery Planning.

Although population viability analysis (PVA) can be an important tool for strengthening endangered species recovery efforts, the extent to which such analyses remain embedded in the social process of recovery planning is often unrecognized. We analyzed two recovery plans for the Mexican wolf that were developed using similar data and methods but arrived at contrasting conclusions as to appropriate recovery goals or criteria. We found that approximately half of the contrast arose from uncertainty regarding biological data, with the remainder divided between policy-related decisions and mixed biological-policy factors. Contrasts arose from both differences in input parameter values and how parameter uncertainty informed the level of precaution embodied in resulting criteria. Policy-related uncertainty originated from contrasts in thresholds for acceptable risk and disagreement as to how to define endangered species recovery. Rather than turning to PVA to produce politically acceptable definitions of recovery that appear science-based, agencies should clarify the nexus between science and policy elements in their decision processes. The limitations we identify in endangered-species policy and how PVAs are conducted as part of recovery planning must be addressed if PVAs are to fulfill their potential to increase the odds of successful conservation outcomes.

Climatic, topographic, and anthropogenic factors determine connectivity between current and future climate analogs in North America.

As climatic conditions shift in coming decades, persistence of many populations will depend on their ability to colonize habitat newly suitable for their climatic requirements. Opportunities for such range shifts may be limited unless areas that facilitate dispersal under climate change are identified and protected from land uses that impede movement. While many climate adaptation strategies focus on identifying refugia, this study is the first to characterize areas which merit protection for their role in promoting climate connectivity at a continental extent. We identified climate connectivity areas across North America by delineating paths between current climate types and their future analogs that avoided nonanalogous climates, and used centrality metrics to rank the contribution of each location to facilitating dispersal across the landscape. The distribution of connectivity areas was influenced by climatic and topographic factors at multiple spatial scales. Results were robust to uncertainty in the magnitude of future climate change arising from differing emissions scenarios and general circulation models, but sensitive to analysis extent and assumptions concerning dispersal behavior and maximum dispersal distance. Paths were funneled along north-south trending passes and valley systems and away from areas of novel and disappearing climates. Climate connectivity areas, where many potential dispersal paths overlapped, were distinct from refugia and thus poorly captured by many existing conservation strategies. Existing protected areas with high connectivity values were found in southern Mexico, the southwestern US, and western and arctic Canada and Alaska. Ecoregions within the Isthmus of Tehuantepec, Great Plains, eastern temperate forests, high Arctic, and western Canadian Cordillera hold important climate connectivity areas which merit increased conservation focus due to anthropogenic pressures or current low levels of protection. Our coarse-filter climate-type-based results complement and contextualize species-specific analyses and add a missing dimension to climate adaptation planning by identifying landscape features which promote connectivity among refugia.

Assessing agreement among alternative climate change projections to inform conservation recommendations in the contiguous United States.

Addressing uncertainties in climate vulnerability remains a challenge for conservation planning. We evaluate how confidence in conservation recommendations may change with agreement among alternative climate projections and metrics of climate exposure. We assessed agreement among three multivariate estimates of climate exposure (forward velocity, backward velocity, and climate dissimilarity) using 18 alternative climate projections for the contiguous United States. For each metric, we classified maps into quartiles for each alternative climate projections, and calculated the frequency of quartiles assigned for each gridded location (high quartile frequency = more agreement among climate projections). We evaluated recommendations using a recent climate adaptation heuristic framework that recommends emphasizing various conservation strategies to land based on current conservation value and expected climate exposure. We found that areas where conservation strategies would be confidently assigned based on high agreement among climate projections varied substantially across regions. In general, there was more agreement in forward and backward velocity estimates among alternative projections than agreement in estimates of local dissimilarity. Consensus of climate predictions resulted in the same conservation recommendation assignments in a few areas, but patterns varied by climate exposure metric. This work demonstrates an approach for explicitly evaluating alternative predictions in geographic patterns of climate change.

Distribution and protection of climatic refugia in North America.

As evidenced by past climatic refugia, locations projected to harbor remnants of present-day climates may serve as critical refugia for current biodiversity in the face of modern climate change. We mapped potential climatic refugia in the future across North America, defined as locations with increasingly rare climatic conditions. We identified these locations by tracking projected changes in the size and distribution of climate analogs over time. We used biologically derived thresholds to define analogs and tested the impacts of dispersal limitation with 4 distances to limit analog searches. We identified at most 12% of North America as potential climatic refugia. Refugia extent varied depending on the analog threshold, dispersal distance, and climate projection. However, in all cases refugia were concentrated at high elevations and in topographically complex regions. Refugia identified using different climate projections were largely nested, suggesting that identified refugia were relatively robust to climate-projection selection. Existing conservation areas cover approximately 10% of North America and yet protected up to 25% of identified refugia, indicating that protected areas disproportionately include refugia. Refugia located at lower latitudes (≤40°N) and slightly lower elevations (approximately 2500 m) were more likely to be unprotected. Based on our results, a 23% expansion of the protected-area network would be sufficient to protect the refugia present under all 3 climate projections we explored. We believe these refugia are high conservation priorities due to their potential to harbor rare species in the future. However, these locations are simultaneously highly vulnerable to climate change over the long term. These refugia contracted substantially between the 2050s and the 2080s, which supports the idea that the pace of climate change will strongly determine the availability and effectiveness of refugia for protecting today's biodiversity.

Defending the scientific integrity of conservation-policy processes.

Government agencies faced with politically controversial decisions often discount or ignore scientific information, whether from agency staff or nongovernmental scientists. Recent developments in scientific integrity (the ability to perform, use, communicate, and publish science free from censorship or political interference) in Canada, Australia, and the United States demonstrate a similar trajectory. A perceived increase in scientific-integrity abuses provokes concerted pressure by the scientific community, leading to efforts to improve scientific-integrity protections under a new administration. However, protections are often inconsistently applied and are at risk of reversal under administrations publicly hostile to evidence-based policy. We compared recent challenges to scientific integrity to determine what aspects of scientific input into conservation policy are most at risk of political distortion and what can be done to strengthen safeguards against such abuses. To ensure the integrity of outbound communications from government scientists to the public, we suggest governments strengthen scientific integrity policies, include scientists' right to speak freely in collective-bargaining agreements, guarantee public access to scientific information, and strengthen agency culture supporting scientific integrity. To ensure the transparency and integrity with which information from nongovernmental scientists (e.g., submitted comments or formal policy reviews) informs the policy process, we suggest governments broaden the scope of independent reviews, ensure greater diversity of expert input and transparency regarding conflicts of interest, require a substantive response to input from agencies, and engage proactively with scientific societies. For their part, scientists and scientific societies have a responsibility to engage with the public to affirm that science is a crucial resource for developing evidence-based policy and regulations in the public interest.

Scale-dependent complementarity of climatic velocity and environmental diversity for identifying priority areas for conservation under climate change.

As most regions of the earth transition to altered climatic conditions, new methods are needed to identify refugia and other areas whose conservation would facilitate persistence of biodiversity under climate change. We compared several common approaches to conservation planning focused on climate resilience over a broad range of ecological settings across North America and evaluated how commonalities in the priority areas identified by different methods varied with regional context and spatial scale. Our results indicate that priority areas based on different environmental diversity metrics differed substantially from each other and from priorities based on spatiotemporal metrics such as climatic velocity. Refugia identified by diversity or velocity metrics were not strongly associated with the current protected area system, suggesting the need for additional conservation measures including protection of refugia. Despite the inherent uncertainties in predicting future climate, we found that variation among climatic velocities derived from different general circulation models and emissions pathways was less than the variation among the suite of environmental diversity metrics. To address uncertainty created by this variation, planners can combine priorities identified by alternative metrics at a single resolution and downweight areas of high variation between metrics. Alternately, coarse-resolution velocity metrics can be combined with fine-resolution diversity metrics in order to leverage the respective strengths of the two groups of metrics as tools for identification of potential macro- and microrefugia that in combination maximize both transient and long-term resilience to climate change. Planners should compare and integrate approaches that span a range of model complexity and spatial scale to match the range of ecological and physical processes influencing persistence of biodiversity and identify a conservation network resilient to threats operating at multiple scales.

Connecting today's climates to future climate analogs to facilitate movement of species under climate change.

Increasing connectivity is an important strategy for facilitating species range shifts and maintaining biodiversity in the face of climate change. To date, however, few researchers have included future climate projections in efforts to prioritize areas for increasing connectivity. We identified key areas likely to facilitate climate-induced species' movement across western North America. Using historical climate data sets and future climate projections, we mapped potential species' movement routes that link current climate conditions to analogous climate conditions in the future (i.e., future climate analogs) with a novel moving-window analysis based on electrical circuit theory. In addition to tracing shifting climates, the approach accounted for landscape permeability and empirically derived species' dispersal capabilities. We compared connectivity maps generated with our climate-change-informed approach with maps of connectivity based solely on the degree of human modification of the landscape. Including future climate projections in connectivity models substantially shifted and constrained priority areas for movement to a smaller proportion of the landscape than when climate projections were not considered. Potential movement, measured as current flow, decreased in all ecoregions when climate projections were included, particularly when dispersal was limited, which made climate analogs inaccessible. Many areas emerged as important for connectivity only when climate change was modeled in 2 time steps rather than in a single time step. Our results illustrate that movement routes needed to track changing climatic conditions may differ from those that connect present-day landscapes. Incorporating future climate projections into connectivity modeling is an important step toward facilitating successful species movement and population persistence in a changing climate.

Locally Downscaled and Spatially Customizable Climate Data for Historical and Future Periods for North America.

Large volumes of gridded climate data have become available in recent years including interpolated historical data from weather stations and future predictions from general circulation models. These datasets, however, are at various spatial resolutions that need to be converted to scales meaningful for applications such as climate change risk and impact assessments or sample-based ecological research. Extracting climate data for specific locations from large datasets is not a trivial task and typically requires advanced GIS and data management skills. In this study, we developed a software package, ClimateNA, that facilitates this task and provides a user-friendly interface suitable for resource managers and decision makers as well as scientists. The software locally downscales historical and future monthly climate data layers into scale-free point estimates of climate values for the entire North American continent. The software also calculates a large number of biologically relevant climate variables that are usually derived from daily weather data. ClimateNA covers 1) 104 years of historical data (1901-2014) in monthly, annual, decadal and 30-year time steps; 2) three paleoclimatic periods (Last Glacial Maximum, Mid Holocene and Last Millennium); 3) three future periods (2020s, 2050s and 2080s); and 4) annual time-series of model projections for 2011-2100. Multiple general circulation models (GCMs) were included for both paleo and future periods, and two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and 8.5) were chosen for future climate data.

Biotic and Climatic Velocity Identify Contrasting Areas of Vulnerability to Climate Change.

Metrics that synthesize the complex effects of climate change are essential tools for mapping future threats to biodiversity and predicting which species are likely to adapt in place to new climatic conditions, disperse and establish in areas with newly suitable climate, or face the prospect of extirpation. The most commonly used of such metrics is the velocity of climate change, which estimates the speed at which species must migrate over the earth's surface to maintain constant climatic conditions. However, "analog-based" velocities, which represent the actual distance to where analogous climates will be found in the future, may provide contrasting results to the more common form of velocity based on local climate gradients. Additionally, whereas climatic velocity reflects the exposure of organisms to climate change, resultant biotic effects are dependent on the sensitivity of individual species as reflected in part by their climatic niche width. This has motivated development of biotic velocity, a metric which uses data on projected species range shifts to estimate the velocity at which species must move to track their climatic niche. We calculated climatic and biotic velocity for the Western Hemisphere for 1961-2100, and applied the results to example ecological and conservation planning questions, to demonstrate the potential of such analog-based metrics to provide information on broad-scale patterns of exposure and sensitivity. Geographic patterns of biotic velocity for 2954 species of birds, mammals, and amphibians differed from climatic velocity in north temperate and boreal regions. However, both biotic and climatic velocities were greatest at low latitudes, implying that threats to equatorial species arise from both the future magnitude of climatic velocities and the narrow climatic tolerances of species in these regions, which currently experience low seasonal and interannual climatic variability. Biotic and climatic velocity, by approximating lower and upper bounds on migration rates, can inform conservation of species and locally-adapted populations, respectively, and in combination with backward velocity, a function of distance to a source of colonizers adapted to a site's future climate, can facilitate conservation of diversity at multiple scales in the face of climate change.

Velocity of climate change algorithms for guiding conservation and management.

The velocity of climate change is an elegant analytical concept that can be used to evaluate the exposure of organisms to climate change. In essence, one divides the rate of climate change by the rate of spatial climate variability to obtain a speed at which species must migrate over the surface of the earth to maintain constant climate conditions. However, to apply the algorithm for conservation and management purposes, additional information is needed to improve realism at local scales. For example, destination information is needed to ensure that vectors describing speed and direction of required migration do not point toward a climatic cul-de-sac by pointing beyond mountain tops. Here, we present an analytical approach that conforms to standard velocity algorithms if climate equivalents are nearby. Otherwise, the algorithm extends the search for climate refugia, which can be expanded to search for multivariate climate matches. With source and destination information available, forward and backward velocities can be calculated allowing useful inferences about conservation of species (present-to-future velocities) and management of species populations (future-to-present velocities).