Construction of a nomogram for predicting COVID-19 in-hospital mortality: A machine learning analysis.

Background and objectives: We aim to verify the use of ML algorithms to predict patient outcome using a relatively small dataset and to create a nomogram to assess in-hospital mortality of patients with COVID-19. Methods: A database of 200 COVID-19 patients admitted to the Clinical Hospital of State University of Campinas (UNICAMP) was used in this analysis. Patient features were divided into three categories: clinical, chest abnormalities, and body composition characteristics acquired by computerized tomography. These features were evaluated independently and combined to predict patient outcomes. To minimize performance fluctuations due to low sample number, reduce possible bias related to outliers, and evaluate the uncertainties generated by the small dataset, we developed a shuffling technique, a modified version of the Monte Carlo Cross Validation, creating several subgroups for training the algorithm and complementary testing subgroups. The following ML algorithms were tested: random forest, boosted decision trees, logistic regression, support vector machines, and neural networks. Performance was evaluated by analyzing Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. The importance of each feature in the determination of the outcome predictability was also studied and a nomogram was created based on the most important features selected by the exclusion test. Results: Among the different sets of features, clinical variables age, lymphocyte number and weight were the most valuable features for prognosis prediction. However, we observed that skeletal muscle radiodensity and presence of pleural effusion were also important for outcome determination. Integrating these independent predictors was successfully developed to accurately predict mortality in COVID-19 in hospital patients. A nomogram based on these five features was created to predict COVID-19 mortality in hospitalized patients. The area under the ROC curve was 0.86 ± 0.04. Conclusion: ML algorithms can be reliable for the prediction of COVID-19-related in-hospital mortality, even when using a relatively small dataset. The success of ML techniques in smaller datasets broadens the applicability of these methods in several problems in the medical area. In addition, feature importance analysis allowed us to determine the most important variables for the prediction tasks resulting in a nomogram with good accuracy and clinical utility in predicting COVID-19 in-hospital mortality.

Low skeletal muscle radiodensity and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio as predictors of poor outcome in patients with COVID-19.

Inflammatory states and body composition changes are associated with a poor prognosis in many diseases, but their role in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is not fully understood. To assess the impact of low skeletal muscle radiodensity (SMD), high neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and a composite score based on both variables, on complications, use of ventilatory support, and survival in patients with COVID-19. Medical records of patients hospitalized between May 1, 2020, and July 31, 2020, with a laboratory diagnosis of COVID-19 who underwent computed tomography (CT) were retrospectively reviewed. CT-derived body composition measurements assessed at the first lumbar vertebra level, and laboratory tests performed at diagnosis, were used to calculate SMD and NLR. Prognostic values were estimated via univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses and the Kaplan-Meier curve. The study was approved by the local Institutional Review Board (CAAE 36276620.2.0000.5404). A total of 200 patients were included. Among the patients assessed, median age was 59 years, 58% were men and 45% required ICU care. A total of 45 (22.5%) patients died. Multivariate logistic analysis demonstrated that a low SMD (OR 2.94; 95% CI 1.13-7.66, P = 0.027), high NLR (OR 3.96; 95% CI 1.24-12.69, P = 0.021) and both low SMD and high NLR (OR 25.58; 95% CI 2.37-276.71, P = 0.008) combined, were associated with an increased risk of death. Patients who had both low SMD and high NLR required more mechanical ventilation (P < 0.001) and were hospitalized for a longer period (P < 0.001). Low SMD, high NLR and the composite score can predict poor prognosis in patients with COVID-19, and can be used as a tool for early identification of patients at risk. Systemic inflammation and low muscle radiodensity are useful predictors of poor prognosis, and the assessment of these factors in clinical practice should be considered.

Impact of COVID-19 in Cervical and Breast Cancer Screening and Systemic Treatment in São Paulo, Brazil: An Interrupted Time Series Analysis.

PURPOSE: COVID-19 caused a disruption in cancer management around the world, resulting in an estimated excess burden secondary to screening disruption and excess lag time for treatment initiation. METHODS: We gathered information from primary reimbursement data sets of the public health system of São Paulo, Brazil, from April 2020 to November 2021, and compared these data with those of the pre-COVID-19 period. We used an interrupted time series model to estimate the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the rate of key procedures of breast and cervical cancer health care chain. RESULTS: We estimated that 1,149,727, 2,693, and 713,616 pap smears, conizations, and mammograms, respectively, were missed or delayed during the COVID-19 pandemic, compared with those in the years immediately before the COVID-19 stay-at-home restrictions. Specifically, we observed an acute decrease of procedures after the COVID-19 stay-at-home restrictions, with a trend to recovery in the long term. Regarding the systemic treatment analysis, we observed a 25% reduction in the rate of initiation of adjuvant systemic treatment for early breast cancer (stage I/II). However, we did not find a clear effect on the other settings of systemic treatment for breast cancer. We estimated an excess of 156 patients starting palliative care for cervical cancer after the COVID-19 stay-at-home restrictions. CONCLUSION: The COVID-19 pandemic significantly reduced the performance rate of pap smears, conizations, and mammograms. The initiation of adjuvant treatment for early-stage breast cancer was most susceptible to COVID-19's health system disruption. Furthermore, the downward trend of treatment of advanced cervical cancer was interrupted. Therefore, public health policies are urgently needed to decrease the incidence of advanced cervical and breast cancers caused by delayed diagnosis and treatment initiation.The COVID-19 control policies resulted in reduction of cancer patients' delivery of care. This study evaluated the pandemic's influence in key procedures of breast and cervical cancer chain of care in São Paulo, Brazil. We observed a substantial reduction in the number of mammograms, pap smears, and conizations performed since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. In addition, stage I and II breast cancer adjuvant treatment presented a reduced realization rate, whereas palliative treatment delivered for advanced cervical cancer increased. Our results support the need for public health policies focused on mitigating the long-term effects of COVID-19 in cancer-related mortality.

Chagasic Megaesophagus-Associated Carcinoma: Clinical Pattern and Outcomes.

PURPOSE: Approximately 4% to 10% of patients diagnosed with Chagas-induced megaesophagus disease develop esophageal carcinoma. However, the natural history and clinical pattern of this entity are not well described. METHODS: Herein, we retrospectively analyzed 593 patients with esophageal carcinoma treated at a single Brazilian institution. We identified 32 patients with Chagas disease, of whom 11 had megaesophagus. The epidemiologic profile and oncological treatment outcomes were evaluated. RESULTS: Although baseline characteristics were similar among the three groups, patients with Chagas megaesophagus-associated carcinoma (CMAC) presented with a lower rate of smoking. This factor reinforced the concept that achalasia is the predominant risk factor for cancer development. The CMAC group had a higher rate of tumor in situ (two of 11 patients) compared with the other groups. These patients were treated with endoscopic resection, and no recurrence was detected. Eight of 11 patients with CMAC were diagnosed with locally advanced disease. Patients with locally advanced CMAC presented with a median progression-free survival of 7.8 months and a median overall survival of 9.1 months. CONCLUSION: If CMAC is not promptly detected, it has a dismal prognosis, indicating that a high index of suspicion of esophageal carcinoma is required for patients with Chagasic megaesophagus. Additional studies are needed to improve the surveillance and treatment approaches for this neglected disease.

Retraction notice to "Obesity-Induced Increase in Tumor Necrosis Factor-α Leads to Development of Colon Cancer in Mice" Gastroenterology 2012;143:741-753.e4.

This article has been retracted: please see Elsevier Policy on Article Withdrawal (http://www.elsevier.com/locate/withdrawalpolicy). This article has been retracted at the request of the Editor-in-Chief and Deputy Editor-in-Chief following an investigation into the data that were presented in several figures within the article. A number of images used in this article are believed to be duplicated images. The authors stated that they inadvertently inserted images of the wrong blots in several of the figures, resulting in the duplications; however, they did not address all of the concerns raised. Because the editors were no longer confident in the conclusions of the article based on these incorrect data, a decision was made to retract the paper. All authors have been notified of this decision. The University of Campinas (UNICAMP) in São Paulo, Brazil was contacted regarding these concerns, but to date the journal has received no response.

Molecular and neuroendocrine mechanisms of cancer cachexia.

Cancer and its morbidities, such as cancer cachexia, constitute a major public health problem. Although cancer cachexia has afflicted humanity for centuries, its underlying multifactorial and complex physiopathology has hindered the understanding of its mechanism. During the last few decades we have witnessed a dramatic increase in the understanding of cancer cachexia pathophysiology. Anorexia and muscle and adipose tissue wasting are the main features of cancer cachexia. These apparently independent symptoms have humoral factors secreted by the tumor as a common cause. Importantly, the hypothalamus has emerged as an organ that senses the peripheral signals emanating from the tumoral environment, and not only elicits anorexia but also contributes to the development of muscle and adipose tissue loss. Herein, we review the roles of factors secreted by the tumor and its effects on the hypothalamus, muscle and adipose tissue, as well as highlighting the key targets that are being exploited for cancer cachexia treatment.

Alzheimer-associated Aß oligomers impact the central nervous system to induce peripheral metabolic deregulation.

Alzheimer's disease (AD) is associated with peripheral metabolic disorders. Clinical/epidemiological data indicate increased risk of diabetes in AD patients. Here, we show that intracerebroventricular infusion of AD-associated Aß oligomers (AßOs) in mice triggered peripheral glucose intolerance, a phenomenon further verified in two transgenic mouse models of AD. Systemically injected AßOs failed to induce glucose intolerance, suggesting AßOs target brain regions involved in peripheral metabolic control. Accordingly, we show that AßOs affected hypothalamic neurons in culture, inducing eukaryotic translation initiation factor 2α phosphorylation (eIF2α-P). AßOs further induced eIF2α-P and activated pro-inflammatory IKKß/NF-κB signaling in the hypothalamus of mice and macaques. AßOs failed to trigger peripheral glucose intolerance in tumor necrosis factor-α (TNF-α) receptor 1 knockout mice. Pharmacological inhibition of brain inflammation and endoplasmic reticulum stress prevented glucose intolerance in mice, indicating that AßOs act via a central route to affect peripheral glucose homeostasis. While the hypothalamus has been largely ignored in the AD field, our findings indicate that AßOs affect this brain region and reveal novel shared molecular mechanisms between hypothalamic dysfunction in metabolic disorders and AD.

Intravesical bacillus Calmette-Guérin efficiently reduces p70S6K1 but not 4E-BP1 phosphorylation in nonmuscle invasive bladder cancer.

PURPOSE: We characterized the functional consequences of intravesical bacillus Calmette-Guérin on the molecular mechanism of the AKT/mTOR signaling pathway in nonmuscle invasive bladder cancer. To our knowledge this has not been reported previously. MATERIALS AND METHODS: At age 7 weeks female Fischer 344 rats received 1.5 mg/kg MNU intravesically every other week for 6 weeks. They were randomized at 10 per group to MNU (0.2 ml vehicle), bacillus Calmette-Guérin (10(6) cfu Connaught strain), rapamycin (15 µg/ml) and bacillus Calmette-Guérin plus simultaneous rapamycin, each intravesically for 6 weeks. At week 15 the bladders were collected for histopathology, immunohistochemistry and immunoblot to determine p-AKT, Rictor, Raptor, p-4E-BP1, p-p70S6K1, p-AMPK-α, p-mTOR and p-p53. RESULTS: Papillary carcinoma (pTa) and high grade intraepithelial neoplasia (pTis) predominated in the MNU group while normal urothelium, papillary and flat hyperplasia were more common in treated groups. Nonmuscle invasive bladder cancer treated with bacillus Calmette-Guérin showed suppression of p70S6K1 but not 4E-BP1 phosphorylation. This suggests that 4E-BP1 is regulated differently than p70S6K1, escaping the bacillus Calmette-Guérin action that occurs in a mTOR independent manner. The association of bacillus Calmette-Guérin with rapamycin but not rapamycin monotherapy affected p70S6K1 and 4E-BP1 phosphorylation with no features of in situ carcinoma (pTis). CONCLUSIONS: The activation status of p70S6K1 and 4E-BP1 might be used to stratify patients who could benefit from targeting such molecular elements with multitarget/multidrug intravesical therapy. In the future 4E-BP1 might be a worthwhile new target for bacillus Calmette-Guérin refractory nonmuscle invasive bladder cancer.

Hypothalamic S1P/S1PR1 axis controls energy homeostasis.

Sphingosine 1-phosphate receptor 1 (S1PR1) is a G-protein-coupled receptor for sphingosine-1-phosphate (S1P) that has a role in many physiological and pathophysiological processes. Here we show that the S1P/S1PR1 signalling pathway in hypothalamic neurons regulates energy homeostasis in rodents. We demonstrate that S1PR1 protein is highly enriched in hypothalamic POMC neurons of rats. Intracerebroventricular injections of the bioactive lipid, S1P, reduce food consumption and increase rat energy expenditure through persistent activation of STAT3 and the melanocortin system. Similarly, the selective disruption of hypothalamic S1PR1 increases food intake and reduces the respiratory exchange ratio. We further show that STAT3 controls S1PR1 expression in neurons via a positive feedback mechanism. Interestingly, several models of obesity and cancer anorexia display an imbalance of hypothalamic S1P/S1PR1/STAT3 axis, whereas pharmacological intervention ameliorates these phenotypes. Taken together, our data demonstrate that the neuronal S1P/S1PR1/STAT3 signalling axis plays a critical role in the control of energy homeostasis in rats.

Hypothalamic inflammation and the central nervous system control of energy homeostasis.

The control of energy homeostasis relies on robust neuronal circuits that regulate food intake and energy expenditure. Although the physiology of these circuits is well understood, the molecular and cellular response of this program to chronic diseases is still largely unclear. Hypothalamic inflammation has emerged as a major driver of energy homeostasis dysfunction in both obesity and anorexia. Importantly, this inflammation disrupts the action of metabolic signals promoting anabolism or supporting catabolism. In this review, we address the evidence that favors hypothalamic inflammation as a factor that resets energy homeostasis in pathological states.