Prediction of ecological status of surface water bodies with supervised machine learning classifiers.

Ensuring a good ecological status of water bodies is one of the key challenges of communities and one of the objectives of the European Water Framework Directive. Although recent works identified the most significant stressors affecting the ecological quality of rivers, the ability to predict the overall ecological status of rivers based on a limited amount of easily accessible geospatial data has not been investigated so far. Most of the analyses focus on detailed local modelling and measurements which cannot be systematically applied at regional scales for the purposes of water resources management. The aim of this work is to understand the capabilities of five supervised machine learning classifiers of predicting the ecological status of rivers based on land use, climate, morphology, and water management parameters extracted over the river catchments corresponding to the ecological monitoring stations. Moreover, the performances of machine learning classifiers are compared to the results of the canonical correlation analysis. The method is applied to 360 catchments in Tuscany (central Italy) with a median size of 33.6 km2 and a Mediterranean climate. The results show (i) a significant correlation of ecological status with summer climate (i.e., maximum temperatures and minimum precipitation), land use and water exploitation, (ii) an 80 % precision of Random Forest algorithm to predict ecological status and (iii) higher capability of all classifiers to predict at least good ecological status. In perspective, such predictive capabilities can support decision making in the land and water resources management and highlight strategies for river eco-hydrological conservation.

Financial Instruments for Mitigation of Flood Risks: The Case of Florence.

This article analyzes the mechanisms and effects of innovative financial instruments that a central public administration (CPA) may adopt to minimize the flood risk in particularly exposed regions. The pattern we suggest assumes that in risky areas the CPA can issue two financial instruments, called project options and CAT-bonds, producing a dynamic interaction among three types of agents: the CPA itself, the local public administrations, and private investors. We explore the possible scenarios of such interaction and the conditions under which the CPA's goal of maximal risk reduction is attained. This pattern is proposed for flood risk mitigation in the city of Florence, where the model dynamics are tested assuming parameters obtained from engineering studies.

Quantification of flood risk mitigation benefits: A building-scale damage assessment through the RASOR platform.

Flood risk mitigation usually requires a significant investment of public resources and cost-effectiveness should be ensured. The assessment of the benefits of hydraulic works requires the quantification of (i) flood risk in absence of measures, (ii) risk in presence of mitigation works, (iii) investments to achieve acceptable residual risk. In this work a building-scale is adopted to estimate direct tangible flood losses to several building classes (e.g. residential, industrial, commercial, etc.) and respective contents, exploiting various sources of public open data in a GIS environment. The impact simulations for assigned flood hazard scenarios are computed through the RASOR platform which allows for an extensive characterization of the properties and their vulnerability through libraries of stage-damage curves. Recovery and replacement costs are estimated based on insurance data, market values and socio-economic proxies. The methodology is applied to the case study of Florence (Italy) where a system of retention basins upstream of the city is under construction to reduce flood risk. Current flood risk in the study area (70 km2) is about 170 Mio euros per year without accounting for people, infrastructures, cultural heritage and vehicles at risk. The monetary investment in the retention basins is paid off in about 5 years. However, the results show that although hydraulic works are cost-effective, a significant residual risk has to be managed and the achievement of the desired level of acceptable risk would require about 1 billion euros of investments.

An entropy-based measure of hydrologic complexity and its applications.

Basin hydrologic response is a function of soil moisture distributional featuresAn information-based dimensionless index of hydrologic complexity is appliedThe complexity index characterizes soil moisture distributional features.

Biochar from Swine solids and digestate influence nutrient dynamics and carbon dioxide release in soil.

Large amounts of livestock manure solids are expected to become available in the near future due to the development of technologies for the separation of the solid fraction of animal effluents. The charring of manure solids for biochar (BC) production represents an opportunity for recycling organic matter (OM) of high nutrient value. The objectives of this study were to evaluate the suitability of BC from swine solids (SS) to improve soil fertility through nutrient supply and decomposition of the OM incorporated into soil and to verify a possible interaction effect on soil nutrient dynamics between digestate application and soil amendment with BC. We monitored at laboratory scale the soil mineral nitrogen (N) and Olsen phosphorus (P) content, and the cumulative carbon dioxide (CO-C) release in treatments with or without a supply of digestate obtained from a biogas plant. The experiment was performed in laboratory microcosms during a 3-mo incubation period. Compared treatments were soil amendments with SS, BC from SS, wood chip, BC from wood chip, and soil with no amendment, each of them with and without incorporation of digestate (10 treatments in total). Soil N levels were unaffected by BC amendments and only increased temporarily when digestate was applied to soil amended with SS or BC from SS. For the same N content, the BC from SS supplied much more P than the nontreated OM. The amount of cumulative CO-C released from soil with BC with or without digestate did not differ from that in the unamended control soil and was lower than that in the soils with noncharred amendments. Soil amendment with BC from SS does not modify soil N availability, whereas it increases the content of P available for crops and reduces the release of CO-C from digestate applied to soil for agricultural purposes.

Evaluation of an endoscopic procedure for the treatment of docking site nonunion.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the effectiveness of an endoscopic docking site surgery during the use of a classic bone transport technique for dealing with bone loss. DESIGN: Retrospective comparative study. SETTING: Level I trauma center. PATIENTS: Nine patients treated with endoscopic docking site surgery (group 1) were compared with 18 patients treated with standard open grafting of the docking site (group 2). All 27 bone transports with distraction osteogenesis were performed for the treatment of segmental tibial bone defects. INTERVENTION: In group 1, 6 tibial and 3 tibiotalar docking sites were endoscopically treated. Anteromedial (instrumentation) and anterolateral (visualization) portals were used without a tourniquet, using a 30-degree arthroscope and a motorized 5-mm shaver/abrader. Fibrous tissue was removed, bone ends abraded, and the bone canal cleaned with bone grafting. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Clinical and radiographic. RESULTS: Bone transport lengthening was 9.7 and 9.1 cm in groups 1 and 2, respectively. Consolidation at the docking site occurred in 8 patients (89%) in group 1. The docking site consolidation time and index lengthening were lower in group 1 (18 vs. 20 weeks for group 2 and 1.59 vs. 1.82 mo/cm in group 1 vs. group 2). Time in the external fixator was similar between the 2 groups (461 vs. 466 days in group 1 vs. group 2). Normal alignment was observed in both groups. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides evidence that minimally invasive endoscopic docking site treatment during bone transport is a safe and viable technique using a common arthroscopic instrumentation.

Bone transport for postinfectious segmental tibial bone defects with a combined ilizarov/taylor spatial frame technique.

OBJECTIVE: To assess and compare the results of trifocal (two-level bone lengthening with compression at the nonunion site) and bifocal (one-level bone lengthening with compression at the nonunion site) bone transport using the Taylor Spatial Frame (TSF; Smith and Nephew, Inc, Memphis, TN) for postinfectious segmental tibial bone defects. DESIGN: Retrospective study of 12 patients with atrophic tibial nonunions. These patients were treated with resection of the nonunion followed by bone transport using the TSF for the segmental tibial bone defects. All patients were treated by the same surgeon (F.S.). SETTING: Level I trauma center. PATIENTS/PARTICIPANTS: Twelve consecutive patients treated for postinfectious segmental tibial bone defects between November 2004 and September 2007. INTERVENTION: All patients were treated using the TSF for a trifocal or bifocal technique of bone transport along with associated soft tissue reconstructive surgeries. All patients were additionally treated with 45 days of culture-specific antibiotics. OUTCOME MEASUREMENT: All patients were evaluated by the guidelines of the Association for the Study of the Method of Ilizarov. RESULTS AND CONCLUSION: All patients achieved complete union and eradication of infection. The results were evaluated according to Association for the Study of the Method of Ilizarov criteria: 83% were excellent and 17% were good in terms of bony outcomes; functional results were excellent in 50%, good in 42%, and fair in 8%. Combined Ilizarov/TSF trifocal and bifocal techniques for the treatment of segmental tibial bone defects achieve union without malalignment of the mechanical axis.

Alternative fixation method for open femoral fractures from a damage control orthopaedics perspective.

A decision for immediate versus delayed fixation in a polytrauma patient mainly in cases of open femoral fracture depends upon time elapsed since injury, duration of stay in intensive care, soft tissue status, probable intra-operative difficulties and presence of systemic complication. We studied the outcome of the Taylor Spatial Frame (TSF) as a solution in the role of primary and definitive fixator for patients in whom definitive osteosynthesis with intramedullary nailing (IMN) can be associated with higher rate of complications. In view of damage control orthopaedics (DCO), we found that TSF is an effective technique compared to internal nails and earlier external fixator devices, attributable to its advantages such as continuity of frame till union, preventing any second-hit phenomenon, early mobilisation and restoration of primary defect due to bone loss by differential distraction osteogenesis without additional surgery. According to the Paley and Maar's evaluation criteria, 11 patients had an excellent result with clinical and radiological union; the functional result was excellent in three patients, good in five, fair in two and poor in one.