Analytic solution of the two-star model with correlated degrees.

Exponential random graphs are important to model the structure of real-world complex networks. Here we solve the two-star model with degree-degree correlations in the sparse regime. The model constraints the average correlation between the degrees of adjacent nodes (nearest neighbors) and between the degrees at the end-points of two-stars (next nearest neighbors). We compute exactly the network free energy and show that this model undergoes a first-order transition to a condensed phase. For non-negative degree correlations between next nearest neighbors, the degree distribution inside the condensed phase has a single peak at the largest degree, while for negative degree correlations between next nearest neighbors the condensed phase is characterized by a bimodal degree distribution. We calculate the degree assortativities and show they are nonmonotonic functions of the model parameters, with a discontinuous behavior at the first-order transition. The first-order critical line terminates at a second-order critical point, whose location in the phase diagram can be accurately determined. Our results can help to develop more detailed models of complex networks with correlated degrees.

Analytic approach for the number statistics of non-Hermitian random matrices.

We introduce a powerful analytic method to study the statistics of the number N_{A}(γ) of eigenvalues inside any smooth Jordan curve γ∈C for infinitely large non-Hermitian random matrices A. Our generic approach can be applied to different random matrix ensembles of a mean-field type, even when the analytic expression for the joint distribution of eigenvalues is not known. We illustrate the method on the adjacency matrices of weighted random graphs with asymmetric couplings, for which standard random-matrix tools are inapplicable, and obtain explicit results for the diluted real Ginibre ensemble. The main outcome is an effective theory that determines the cumulant generating function of N_{A} via a path integral along γ, with the path probability distribution following from the numerical solution of a nonlinear self-consistent equation. We derive expressions for the mean and the variance of N_{A} as well as for the rate function governing rare fluctuations of N_{A}(γ). All theoretical results are compared with direct diagonalization of finite random matrices, exhibiting an excellent agreement.

Publisher's Note: Spectral order statistics of Gaussian random matrices: Large deviations for trapped fermions and associated phase transitions [Phys. Rev. E 90, 040102(R) (2014)].

This corrects the article DOI: 10.1103/PhysRevE.90.040102.

Publisher's Note: Large Deviation Function for the Number of Eigenvalues of Sparse Random Graphs inside an Interval [Phys. Rev. Lett. 117, 104101 (2016)].

This corrects the article DOI: 10.1103/PhysRevLett.117.104101.

Using posterior predictive distributions to analyse epidemic models: COVID-19 in Mexico City.

Epidemiological models usually contain a set of parameters that must be adjusted based on available observations. Once a model has been calibrated, it can be used as a forecasting tool to make predictions and to evaluate contingency plans. It is customary to employ only point estimators of model parameters for such predictions. However, some models may fit the same data reasonably well for a broad range of parameter values, and this flexibility means that predictions stemming from them will vary widely, depending on the particular values employed within the range that gives a good fit. When data are poor or incomplete, model uncertainty widens further. A way to circumvent this problem is to use Bayesian statistics to incorporate observations and use the full range of parameter estimates contained in the posterior distribution to adjust for uncertainties in model predictions. Specifically, given an epidemiological model and a probability distribution for observations, we use the posterior distribution of model parameters to generate all possible epidemic curves, whose information is encapsulated in posterior predictive distributions. From these, one can extract the worst-case scenario and study the impact of implementing contingency plans according to this assessment. We apply this approach to the evolution of COVID-19 in Mexico City and assess whether contingency plans are being successful and whether the epidemiological curve has flattened.

Asymptotic estimates of SARS-CoV-2 infection counts and their sensitivity to stochastic perturbation.

Despite the importance of having robust estimates of the time-asymptotic total number of infections, early estimates of COVID-19 show enormous fluctuations. Using COVID-19 data from different countries, we show that predictions are extremely sensitive to the reporting protocol and crucially depend on the last available data point before the maximum number of daily infections is reached. We propose a physical explanation for this sensitivity, using a susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered model, where the parameters are stochastically perturbed to simulate the difficulty in detecting patients, different confinement measures taken by different countries, as well as changes in the virus characteristics. Our results suggest that there are physical and statistical reasons to assign low confidence to statistical and dynamical fits, despite their apparently good statistical scores. These considerations are general and can be applied to other epidemics.

Motion of a Brownian particle in the presence of reactive boundaries.

We study the one-dimensional motion of a Brownian particle inside a confinement described by two reactive boundaries which can partially reflect or absorb the particle. Understanding the effects of such boundaries is important in physics, chemistry, and biology. We compute the probability density of the particle displacement exactly, from which we derive expressions for the survival probability and the mean absorption time as a function of the reactive coefficients. Furthermore, using the Feynman-Kac formalism, we investigate the local time profile, which is the fluctuating time spent by the particle at a given location, both till a fixed observation time and till the absorption time. Our analytical results are compared to numerical simulations, showing perfect agreement.

Condensation of degrees emerging through a first-order phase transition in classical random graphs.

Due to their conceptual and mathematical simplicity, Erdös-Rényi or classical random graphs remain as a fundamental paradigm to model complex interacting systems in several areas. Although condensation phenomena have been widely considered in complex network theory, the condensation of degrees has hitherto eluded a careful study. Here we show that the degree statistics of the classical random graph model undergoes a first-order phase transition between a Poisson-like distribution and a condensed phase, the latter characterized by a large fraction of nodes having degrees in a limited sector of their configuration space. The mechanism underlying the first-order transition is discussed in light of standard concepts in statistical physics. We uncover the phase diagram characterizing the ensemble space of the model, and we evaluate the rate function governing the probability to observe a condensed state, which shows that condensation of degrees is a rare statistical event akin to similar condensation phenomena recently observed in several other systems. Monte Carlo simulations confirm the exactness of our theoretical results.

Intermediate deviation regime for the full eigenvalue statistics in the complex Ginibre ensemble.

We study the Ginibre ensemble of N×N complex random matrices and compute exactly, for any finite N, the full distribution as well as all the cumulants of the number N_{r} of eigenvalues within a disk of radius r centered at the origin. In the limit of large N, when the average density of eigenvalues becomes uniform over the unit disk, we show that for 0

Universal behavior of the full particle statistics of one-dimensional Coulomb gases with an arbitrary external potential.

We present a complete theory for the full particle statistics of the positions of bulk and extremal particles in a one-dimensional Coulomb gas (CG) with an arbitrary potential, in the typical and large deviations regimes. Typical fluctuations are described by a universal function which depends solely on the general properties of the external potential. The rate function controlling large deviations is, rather unexpectedly, not strictly convex and has a discontinuous third derivative around its minimum for both extremal and bulk particles. This implies, in turn, that the rate function cannot predict the anomalous scaling of the typical fluctuations with the system size for bulk particles, and it may indicate the existence of an intermediate phase in this case. Moreover, its asymptotic behavior for extremal particles differs from the predictions of the Tracy-Widom distribution. Thus many of the paradigmatic properties of the full particle statistics of Dyson log gases do not carry over into their one-dimensional counterparts, hence proving that one-dimensional CG belongs to a different universality class. Our analytical expressions are thoroughly compared with Monte Carlo simulations, showing excellent agreement.

Large-deviation theory for diluted Wishart random matrices.

Wishart random matrices with a sparse or diluted structure are ubiquitous in the processing of large datasets, with applications in physics, biology, and economy. In this work, we develop a theory for the eigenvalue fluctuations of diluted Wishart random matrices based on the replica approach of disordered systems. We derive an analytical expression for the cumulant generating function of the number of eigenvalues I_{N}(x) smaller than x∈R^{+}, from which all cumulants of I_{N}(x) and the rate function Ψ_{x}(k) controlling its large-deviation probability Prob[I_{N}(x)=kN]≍e^{-NΨ_{x}(k)} follow. Explicit results for the mean value and the variance of I_{N}(x), its rate function, and its third cumulant are discussed and thoroughly compared to numerical diagonalization, showing very good agreement. The present work establishes the theoretical framework put forward in a recent letter [Phys. Rev. Lett. 117, 104101 (2016)PRLTAO0031-900710.1103/PhysRevLett.117.104101] as an exact and compelling approach to deal with eigenvalue fluctuations of sparse random matrices.

Energy metabolism and glutamate-glutamine cycle in the brain: a stoichiometric modeling perspective.

BACKGROUND: The energetics of cerebral activity critically relies on the functional and metabolic interactions between neurons and astrocytes. Important open questions include the relation between neuronal versus astrocytic energy demand, glucose uptake and intercellular lactate transfer, as well as their dependence on the level of activity. RESULTS: We have developed a large-scale, constraint-based network model of the metabolic partnership between astrocytes and glutamatergic neurons that allows for a quantitative appraisal of the extent to which stoichiometry alone drives the energetics of the system. We find that the velocity of the glutamate-glutamine cycle (Vcyc) explains part of the uncoupling between glucose and oxygen utilization at increasing Vcyc levels. Thus, we are able to characterize different activation states in terms of the tissue oxygen-glucose index (OGI). Calculations show that glucose is taken up and metabolized according to cellular energy requirements, and that partitioning of the sugar between different cell types is not significantly affected by Vcyc. Furthermore, both the direction and magnitude of the lactate shuttle between neurons and astrocytes turn out to depend on the relative cell glucose uptake while being roughly independent of Vcyc. CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest that, in absence of ad hoc activity-related constraints on neuronal and astrocytic metabolism, the glutamate-glutamine cycle does not control the relative energy demand of neurons and astrocytes, and hence their glucose uptake and lactate exchange.

A novel methodology to estimate metabolic flux distributions in constraint-based models.

Quite generally, constraint-based metabolic flux analysis describes the space of viable flux configurations for a metabolic network as a high-dimensional polytope defined by the linear constraints that enforce the balancing of production and consumption fluxes for each chemical species in the system. In some cases, the complexity of the solution space can be reduced by performing an additional optimization, while in other cases, knowing the range of variability of fluxes over the polytope provides a sufficient characterization of the allowed configurations. There are cases, however, in which the thorough information encoded in the individual distributions of viable fluxes over the polytope is required. Obtaining such distributions is known to be a highly challenging computational task when the dimensionality of the polytope is sufficiently large, and the problem of developing cost-effective ad hoc algorithms has recently seen a major surge of interest. Here, we propose a method that allows us to perform the required computation heuristically in a time scaling linearly with the number of reactions in the network, overcoming some limitations of similar techniques employed in recent years. As a case study, we apply it to the analysis of the human red blood cell metabolic network, whose solution space can be sampled by different exact techniques, like Hit-and-Run Monte Carlo (scaling roughly like the third power of the system size). Remarkably accurate estimates for the true distributions of viable reaction fluxes are obtained, suggesting that, although further improvements are desirable, our method enhances our ability to analyze the space of allowed configurations for large biochemical reaction networks.

Cavity approach to the spectral density of non-Hermitian sparse matrices.

The spectral densities of ensembles of non-Hermitian sparse random matrices are analyzed using the cavity method. We present a set of equations from which the spectral density of a given ensemble can be efficiently and exactly calculated. Within this approach, the generalized Girko's law is recovered easily. We compare our results with direct diagonalisation for a number of random matrix ensembles, finding excellent agreement.

Cavity approach to the spectral density of sparse symmetric random matrices.

The spectral density of various ensembles of sparse symmetric random matrices is analyzed using the cavity method. We consider two cases: matrices whose associated graphs are locally treelike, and sparse covariance matrices. We derive a closed set of equations from which the density of eigenvalues can be efficiently calculated. Within this approach, the Wigner semicircle law for Gaussian matrices and the Marcenko-Pastur law for covariance matrices are recovered easily. Our results are compared with numerical diagonalization, showing excellent agreement.

Cavity approach for real variables on diluted graphs and application to synchronization in small-world lattices.

We study XY spin systems on small-world lattices for a variety of graph structures, e.g., Poisson and scale-free, superimposed upon a one-dimensional chain. In order to solve this model we extend the cavity method in the one pure-state approximation to deal with real-valued dynamical variables. We find that small-world architectures significantly enlarge the region in parameter space where synchronization occurs. We contrast the results of population dynamics performed on a truncated set of cavity fields with Monte Carlo simulations and find fair agreement. Further, we investigate the appearance of replica symmetry breaking in the spin-glass phase by numerically analyzing the proliferation of pure states in the message passing equations.