Pediatric mental health emergency department visits from 2017 to 2022: A multicenter study.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic adversely affected children's mental health (MH) and changed patterns of MH emergency department (ED) utilization. Our objective was to assess how pediatric MH ED visits during the COVID-19 pandemic differed from expected prepandemic trends. METHODS: We retrospectively studied MH ED visits by children 5 to <18 years old at nine U.S. hospitals participating in the Pediatric Emergency Care Applied Research Network Registry from 2017 to 2022. We described visit length by time period: prepandemic (January 2017-February 2020), early pandemic (March 2020-December 2020), midpandemic (2021), and late pandemic (2022). We estimated expected visit rates from prepandemic data using multivariable Poisson regression models. We calculated rate ratios (RRs) of observed to expected visits per 30 days during each pandemic time period, overall and by sociodemographic and clinical characteristics. RESULTS: We identified 175,979 pediatric MH ED visits. Visit length exceeded 12 h for 7.3% prepandemic, 8.4% early pandemic, 15.0% midpandemic, and 19.2% late pandemic visits. During the early pandemic, observed visits per 30 days decreased relative to expected rates (RR 0.80, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.78-0.84), were similar to expected rates during the midpandemic (RR 1.01, 95% CI 0.96-1.07), and then decreased below expected rates during the late pandemic (RR 0.92, 95% CI 0.86-0.98). During the late pandemic, visit rates were higher than expected for females (RR 1.10, 95% CI 1.02-1.20) and for bipolar disorders (RR 1.83, 95% CI 1.38-2.75), schizophrenia spectrum disorders (RR 1.55, 95% CI 1.10-2.59), and substance-related and addictive disorders (RR 1.50, 95% CI 1.18-2.05). CONCLUSIONS: During the late pandemic, pediatric MH ED visits decreased below expected rates; however, visits by females and for specific conditions remained elevated, indicating a need for increased attention to these groups. Prolonged ED visit lengths may reflect inadequate availability of MH services.

Predictors of Invasive Bacterial Infection in Febrile Infants Aged 2 to 6 Months in the Emergency Department.

Our goal was to identify predictors of invasive bacterial infection (ie, bacteremia and bacterial meningitis) in febrile infants aged 2-6 months. In our multicenter retrospective cohort, older age and lower temperature identified infants at low risk for invasive bacterial infection who could safely avoid routine testing.

Prevalence of Low-Acuity Pediatric Emergency Medical Services Transports to a Pediatric Emergency Department in an Urban Area.

OBJECTIVES: Many patients transported by Emergency Medical Services (EMS) do not have emergent resource needs. Estimates for the proportion of pediatric EMS calls for low-acuity complaints, and thus potential candidates for alternative dispositions, vary widely and are often based on physician judgment. A more accurate reference standard should include patient assessments, interventions, and dispositions. The objective of this study was to describe the prevalence and characteristics of low-acuity pediatric EMS calls in an urban area. METHODS: This is a prospective observational study of children transported by EMS to a tertiary care pediatric emergency department. Patient acuity was defined using a novel composite measure that included physiologic assessments, resources used, and disposition. Bivariable and multivariable logistic regression were conducted to assess for factors associated with low-acuity status. RESULTS: A total of 996 patients were enrolled, of whom 32.9% (95% confidence interval, 30.0-36.0) were low acuity. Most of the sample was Black, non-Hispanic with a mean age of 7 years. When compared with adolescents, children younger than 1 year were more likely to be low acuity (adjusted odds ratio, 3.1 [1.9-5.1]). Patients in a motor vehicle crash were also more likely to be low acuity (adjusted odds ratio, 2.4 [1.2-4.6]). All other variables, including race, insurance status, chief complaint, and dispatch time, were not associated with low-acuity status. CONCLUSIONS: One third of pediatric patients transported to the pediatric emergency department by EMS in this urban area are for low-acuity complaints. Further research is needed to determine low-acuity rates in other jurisdictions and whether EMS providers can accurately identify low-acuity patients to develop alternative EMS disposition programs for children.

Recommendations for Choosing Wisely in Pediatric Emergency Medicine: Five Opportunities to Improve Value.

Unnecessary diagnostic tests and treatments in children cared for in emergency departments (EDs) do not benefit patients, increase costs, and may result in harm. To address this low-value care, a taskforce of pediatric emergency medicine (PEM) physicians was formed to create the first PEM Choosing Wisely recommendations. Using a systematic, iterative process, the taskforce collected suggested items from an interprofessional group of 33 ED clinicians from 6 academic pediatric EDs. An initial review of 219 suggested items yielded 72 unique items. Taskforce members independently scored each item for its extent of overuse, strength of evidence, and potential for harm. The 25 highest-rated items were sent in an electronic survey to all 89 members of the American Academy of Pediatrics PEM Committee on Quality Transformation (AAP COQT) to select their top ten recommendations. The AAP COQT survey had a 63% response rate. The five most selected items were circulated to over 100 stakeholder and specialty groups (within the AAP, CW Canada, and CW USA organizations) for review, iterative feedback, and approval. The final 5 items were simultaneously published by Choosing Wisely United States and Choosing Wisely Canada on December 1, 2022. All recommendations focused on decreasing diagnostic testing related to respiratory conditions, medical clearance for psychiatric conditions, seizures, constipation, and viral respiratory tract infections. A multinational PEM taskforce developed the first Choosing Wisely recommendation list for pediatric patients in the ED setting. Future activities will include dissemination efforts and interventions to improve the quality and value of care specific to recommendations.

External evaluation of the Dynamic Criticality Index: A machine learning model to predict future need for ICU care in hospitalized pediatric patients.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the single site performance of the Dynamic Criticality Index (CI-D) models developed from a multi-institutional database to predict future care. Secondarily, to assess future care-location predictions in a single institution when CI-D models are re-developed using single-site data with identical variables and modeling methods. Four CI-D models were assessed for predicting care locations >6-12 hours, >12-18 hours, >18-24 hours, and >24-30 hours in the future. DESIGN: Prognostic study comparing multi-institutional CI-D models' performance in a single-site electronic health record dataset to an institution-specific CI-D model developed using identical variables and modelling methods. The institution did not participate in the multi-institutional dataset. PARTICIPANTS: All pediatric inpatients admitted from January 1st 2018 -February 29th 2020 through the emergency department. MAIN OUTCOME(S) AND MEASURE(S): The main outcome was inpatient care in routine or ICU care locations. RESULTS: A total of 29,037 pediatric hospital admissions were included, with 5,563 (19.2%) admitted directly to the ICU, 869 (3.0%) transferred from routine to ICU care, and 5,023 (17.3%) transferred from ICU to routine care. Patients had a median [IQR] age 68 months (15-157), 47.5% were female and 43.4% were black. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) for the multi-institutional CI-D models applied to a single-site test dataset was 0.493-0.545 and area under the precision-recall curve (AUPRC) was 0.262-0.299. The single-site CI-D models applied to an independent single-site test dataset had an AUROC 0.906-0.944 and AUPRC range from 0.754-0.824. Accuracy at 0.95 sensitivity for those transferred from routine to ICU care was 72.6%-81.0%. Accuracy at 0.95 specificity was 58.2%-76.4% for patients who transferred from ICU to routine care. CONCLUSION AND RELEVANCE: Models developed from multi-institutional datasets and intended for application to individual institutions should be assessed locally and may benefit from re-development with site-specific data prior to deployment.

Delays in treatment and disposition attributable to undertriage of pediatric emergency medicine patients.

BACKGROUND: Triage, the initial assessment and sorting of patients in the Emergency Department (ED), determines priority of evaluation and treatment. Little is known about the impact of undertriage, the underestimation of disease severity at triage, on clinical care in pediatric ED patients. We evaluate the impact of undertriage on time to disposition and treatment decisions in pediatric ED patients. METHODS: This was a case control study of ED visits for patients <22 years of age, with an assigned Emergency Severity Index (ESI) score of 4 or 5, and associated hospital admission, nebulized treatment, supplemental oxygen, and/or intravenous (IV) line placement, between January 1, 2018, to June 30, 2022. Controls were sampled from a pool of patient visits with an ESI score of 3, matched by intervention, disposition, and date and hour of arrival. Primary outcome measures were time to order of intervention (nebulized treatment, oxygen administration, or IV placement) and time to disposition decision. A secondary outcome measure was return visits requiring admission or emergency intervention within 14 days of the index visit. Continuous variables (time to orders) were analyzed using Wilcoxon rank sum test and dichotomous outcomes (return visits) were compared using odds ratios with 95% confidence intervals. Analysis was performed with Python v3.10. RESULTS: The final analysis included 7245 undertriaged patients. Undertriaged patients had longer times to orders for nebulized treatments, (p < 0.001) IV placement, (p < 0.001) and admission (p < 0.001) when compared to controls. There were no significant differences in time to supplemental oxygen delivery and time to discharge compared to controls. Undertriaged patients were more likely to experience a return visit requiring admission or emergency intervention (OR 3.74, 95% CI 3.32,4.22). CONCLUSIONS: Undertriage in the pediatric ED is associated with delays in care and disposition decisions and increases likelihood of return visits.

Leaving Without Being Seen From the Pediatric Emergency Department: A New Baseline.

BACKGROUND: Left without being seen (LWBS) rates are an important quality metric for pediatric emergency departments (EDs), with high-acuity LWBS children representing a patient safety risk. Since July 2021, our ED experienced a surge in LWBS after the most stringent COVID-19 quarantine restrictions ended. OBJECTIVE: We assessed changes in LWBS rates and examined associations of system factors and patient characteristics with LWBS. METHODS: We performed a retrospective study in a large, urban pediatric ED for all arriving patients, comparing the following three time-periods: before COVID-19 (PRE, January 2018-February 2020), during early COVID-19 (COVID, March 2020-June 2021), and after the emergence of COVID-19 variants and re-emergence of seasonal viruses (POST, July 2021-December 2021). We compared descriptive statistics of daily LWBS rates, patient demographic characteristics, and system characteristics. Negative binomial (system factors) and logistic regression (patient characteristics) models were developed to evaluate the associations between system factors and LWBS, and patient characteristics and LWBS, respectively. RESULTS: Mean daily LWBS rates changed from 1.8% PRE to 1.4% COVID to 10.7% during POST. Rates increased across every patient demographic and triage level during POST, despite a decrease in daily ED volume compared with PRE. LWBS rates were significantly associated with patients with an Emergency Severity Index score of 2, mean ED census, and staff productivity within multiple periods. Patient characteristics associated with LWBS included lower assigned triage levels and arrival between 8 pm and 4 am. CONCLUSIONS: LWBS rates have shown a large and sustained increase since July 2021, even for high-acuity patients. We identified system factors that may provide opportunities to reduce LWBS. Further work should develop strategies to prevent LWBS in at-risk patients.

Desirability of Outcome Ranking for Status Epilepticus: A Benefit-Risk Approach to Design and Analyses of Clinical SE Trials.

Most clinical trials of treatment efficacy evaluate benefits and harms separately. Investigators generally rate the primary outcome of a trial with a binary outcome measure and consider harms separately as adverse events. This approach fails to recognize finer gradations of patient response, correlations between benefits and harms, and the overall effects on individual patients. For example, in status epilepticus trials, efficacy is often defined as the absence of clinically apparent seizures with recovery of consciousness. Such an efficacy outcome fails to recognize that some causes of status epilepticus, such as subarachnoid hemorrhage or stroke, may not be accompanied by return of consciousness, and the need to intubate a patient may be classified as treatment failure even if status was successfully terminated. The Desirability of Outcome Ranking (DOOR) method uses a different approach. The DOOR method involves comparing the experiences of trial participants in different treatment arms by the desirability of the overall patient outcome. Using status epilepticus treatment as an example, a patient who experiences successful termination of status epilepticus but with major side effects would have a less desirable outcome than a patient with treatment success and minor side effects, who in turn would have a less desirable outcome than a patient with treatment success but no side effects. This is a patient-centered approach because it considers treatment efficacy in the context of the costs borne by the patient, for example, toxicity in achieving efficacy. Thus, DOOR considers both the benefits and harms to individual patients in assessing the outcome of a clinical trial. In this article, we present the rationale for the use of DOOR, the issues involved in the development of and statistical analyses of an ordinal outcome, and an example of the potential application of the DOOR method to a clinical trial of convulsive status epilepticus.

The contribution of prognostic factors to socio-demographic inequalities in breast cancer survival in Victoria, Australia.

BACKGROUND: Breast cancer survival in Australia varies according to socio-economic status (SES) and between rural and urban places of residence. Part of this disparity may be due to differences in prognostic factors at the time of diagnosis. METHODS: Women with invasive breast cancer diagnosed from 2008 until 2012 (n = 14,165) were identified from the Victorian Cancer Registry and followed up for 5 years, with death from breast cancer or other causes recorded. A prognostic score, based on stage at diagnosis, cancer grade, whether the cancer was detected via screening, reported comorbidities and age at diagnosis, was constructed for use in a mediation analysis. RESULTS: Five-year breast cancer mortality for women with breast cancer who were in the lowest quintile of SES (10.3%) was almost double that of those in the highest quintile (5.7%). There was a small survival advantage (1.7% on average, within each socio-economic quintile) of living in inner-regional areas compared with major cities. About half of the socio-economic disparity was mediated by prognostic factors, particularly stage at diagnosis and the presence of comorbidities. The inner-regional survival advantage was not due to differences in prognostic factors. CONCLUSIONS: Part of the socio-economic disparity in breast cancer survival could be addressed by earlier detection in, and improved general health for, more disadvantaged women. Further research is required to identify additional causes of socio-economic disparities as well as the observed inner-regional survival advantage.

Undertriage for Children With Caregivers Preferring Languages Other Than English.

OBJECTIVES: Undertriage, the underestimation of acuity, can result in delayed care and potential morbidity in the emergency department (ED). Although inequities in ED care based on language preference have been noted, little is known about its association with undertriage. We evaluated for differences in undertriage based on caregiver language preference. METHODS: This was a retrospective cross-sectional study of patients aged younger than 21 years, triaged as Emergency Severity Index (ESI) level 4 or 5 (nonurgent), to the pediatric ED from January 1, 2019, through January 31, 2021. Indicators of undertriage were defined as hospital admission, significant ED resource use, or return visits with admission. We used logistic regression with generalized estimating equations to measure the association of preferred language with undertriage. RESULTS: Of 114 266 ED visits included in the study, 22 525 (19.8%) represented patients with caregivers preferring languages other than English. These children were more likely to experience undertriage compared with those with caregivers preferring English (3.7% [English] versus 4.6% [Spanish] versus 5.9% [other languages]; Spanish versus English: odds ratio [OR], 1.3; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.2-1.4] and other languages versus English: OR, 1.6; 95% CI, 1.2-2.2). Differences remained after adjusting for sex, insurance, mode of arrival, and clustering by triage nurse (Spanish versus English: adjusted OR, 1.3; 95% CI, 1.3-1.5) and other languages versus English: adjusted OR, 1.6; 95% CI, 1.2-2.2). CONCLUSIONS: Children accompanied by caregivers preferring languages other than English are more likely to be undertriaged in the pediatric ED. Efforts to improve the triage process are needed to promote equitable care for this population.

Paired analysis of ED efficiency for low-acuity children treated by PAs and pediatricians.

OBJECTIVE: To determine if there was a clinically important difference (15 minutes or more) in length of stay (LOS) for low-acuity pediatric ED patients treated by PAs compared with those treated by pediatricians. METHODS: Between July 2017 and February 2020, shifts were identified that had shared PA and pediatrician staffing in the low-acuity care area for a large, urban ED. LOS was collected for every patient during the 6 hours of overlap for each shift. Using a paired analysis, we calculated the difference in mean LOS for these shifts. RESULTS: Mean shift LOS for children seen by PAs (160.1 minutes, SD: 48.6) was 10.1 minutes longer (95% CI: 6.1, 14.1) than mean shift LOS for children seen by pediatricians (150 minutes, SD: 47.3). CONCLUSIONS: No clinically important difference in LOS was found for low-acuity children treated by PAs compared with those treated by pediatricians in a large, urban ED.

Types of diagnostic errors reported by paediatric emergency providers in a global paediatric emergency care research network.

BACKGROUND: Diagnostic errors, reframed as missed opportunities for improving diagnosis (MOIDs), are poorly understood in the paediatric emergency department (ED) setting. We investigated the clinical experience, harm and contributing factors related to MOIDs reported by physicians working in paediatric EDs. METHODS: We developed a web-based survey in which physicians participating in the international Paediatric Emergency Research Network representing five out of six WHO regions, described examples of MOIDs involving their own or a colleague's patients. Respondents provided case summaries and answered questions regarding harm and factors contributing to the event. RESULTS: Of 1594 physicians surveyed, 412 (25.8%) responded (mean age=43 years (SD=9.2), 42.0% female, mean years in practice=12 (SD=9.0)). Patient presentations involving MOIDs had common undifferentiated symptoms at initial presentation, including abdominal pain (21.1%), fever (17.2%) and vomiting (16.5%). Patients were discharged from the ED with commonly reported diagnoses, including acute gastroenteritis (16.7%), viral syndrome (10.2%) and constipation (7.0%). Most reported MOIDs (65%) were detected on ED return visits (46% within 24 hours and 76% within 72 hours). The most common reported MOID was appendicitis (11.4%), followed by brain tumour (4.4%), meningitis (4.4%) and non-accidental trauma (4.1%). More than half (59.1%) of the reported MOIDs involved the patient/parent-provider encounter (eg, misinterpreted/ignored history or an incomplete/inadequate physical examination). Types of MOIDs and contributing factors did not differ significantly between countries. More than half of patients had either moderate (48.7%) or major (10%) harm due to the MOID. CONCLUSIONS: An international cohort of paediatric ED physicians reported several MOIDs, often in children who presented to the ED with common undifferentiated symptoms. Many of these were related to patient/parent-provider interaction factors such as suboptimal history and physical examination. Physicians' personal experiences offer an underexplored source for investigating and mitigating diagnostic errors in the paediatric ED.

Why ketamine.

We present the rationale for testing ketamine as an add-on therapy for treating benzodiazepine refractory (established) status epilepticus. In animal studies, ketamine terminates benzodiazepine refractory status epilepticus by interfering with the pathophysiological mechanisms and is a neuroprotectant. Ketamine does not suppress respiration when used for sedation and anesthesia. A Series of reports suggest that ketamine can help terminate refractory and super refractory status epilepticus. We propose to use 1 or 3 mg/Kg ketamine intravenously based on animal-to-human conversion and pharmacokinetic studies. This paper was presented at the 8th London-Innsbruck Colloquium on Status Epilepticus and Acute Seizures held in September 2022.

Clinician and Caregiver Determinations of Acuity for Children Transported by Emergency Medical Services: A Prospective Observational Study.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: Many Emergency Medical Services (EMS) agencies have developed alternative disposition processes for patients with nonemergency problems, but there is a lack of evidence demonstrating EMS clinicians can accurately determine acuity in pediatric patients. Our study objective was to determine EMS and other stakeholders' ability to identify low acuity pediatric EMS patients. METHODS: We conducted a prospective, observational study of children transported to a pediatric emergency department (ED) by EMS. Acuity was defined using a composite measure that included data from the patient's vital signs and examination, resources used (laboratory results, radiographs, etc), and disposition. For each patient, an EMS clinician, patient caregiver, ED nurse, and ED provider completed a survey as soon as possible after the patient's arrival at the ED. The survey asked respondents 2 questions: to state their level of agreement that a patient was low acuity and could the patient have been managed by various alternative dispositions. For each respondent group, we calculated the sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values for low acuity versus the composite measure. RESULTS: From August 2020 through September 2021, we approached 1,015 caregivers, of whom 996 (99.8%) agreed to participate and completed the survey. Survey completion varied between 78.7% and 84.1% for EMS and ED nurses and providers. The mean patient age was 7 years, 62.6% were non-Hispanic Black, and 60% were enrolled in public insurance programs. Of the 996 patient encounters, 33% were determined to be low acuity by the composite measure. The positive predictive value for EMS clinicians when identifying low acuity children was 0.60 (95% confidence intervals [CI], 0.58 to 0.67). The positive predictive value for ED nurses and providers was 0.67 (95% CI, 0.61 to 0.72) and 0.68 (95% CI, 0.63 to 0.74) respectively. The negative predictive value for EMS clinicians when identifying not low acuity children was 0.62 (95% CI, 0.58 to 0.67). The negative predictive value for ED nurses and providers was 0.72 (95% CI, 0.68 to 0.76) and 0.73 (95% CI, 0.70 to 0.77) respectively. Caregivers had the lowest positive predictive value 0.34 (95% CI, 0.30 to 0.40) but the highest negative predictive value 0.82 (95% CI, 0.79 to 0.85). The EMS clinicians, ED nurses and providers were more likely than caregivers to think that a child with a low acuity complaint could have been safely managed by alternative disposition. CONCLUSION: All 4 groups studied had a limited ability to identify which children transported by EMS would have no emergency resource needs, and support for alternative disposition was limited. For children to be included in alternative disposition processes, novel triage tools, training, and oversight will be required to prevent undertriage.

Emergency Medical Services Clinicians' Perspectives on Pediatric Non-Transport.

OBJECTIVES: Emergency medical services clinicians do not transport one-third of all children assessed, even without official pediatric non-transport protocols. Little is known about how EMS clinicians and caregivers decide not to transport a child. Our objectives were to describe how EMS clinicians currently decide whether or not to transport a child and identify barriers to and enablers of successfully implementing an EMS clinician-initiated pediatric non-transport protocol. METHODS: We conducted six virtual focus groups with EMS clinicians from the mid-Atlantic. A PhD trained facilitator moderated all groups using a semi-structured moderator guide. Multiple investigators independently coded a deidentified sample transcript. One team member then completed axial coding of the remaining transcripts. Thematic saturation was achieved. Clusters of similar codes were grouped into themes by consensus. RESULTS: We recruited 50 participants, of whom 70% were paramedics and 28% emergency medical technicians. There was agreement that caregivers often use 9-1-1 for low acuity complaints. Participants stated that non-transport usually occurs after shared decision-making between EMS clinicians and caregivers; EMS clinicians advise whether transport is necessary, but caregivers are responsible for making the final decision and signing refusal documentation. Subthemes for how non-transport decisions were made included the presence of agency protocols, caregiver preferences, absence of a guardian on the scene, EMS clinician variability, and distance to the nearest ED. Participants identified the following features that would enable successful implementation of an EMS clinician-initiated non-transport process: a user-friendly interface, clear protocol endpoints, the inclusion of vital sign parameters, resources to leave with caregivers, and optional direct medical oversight. CONCLUSIONS: EMS clinicians in our study agreed that non-transport is currently a caregiver decision, but noted a collaborative process of shared decision-making where EMS clinicians advise caregivers whether transport is indicated. Further research is needed to understand the safety of this practice. This study suggests there may be a need for EMS-initiated alternative disposition/non-transport protocols.

Randomised feasibility trial of a virtual intervention to address infant car seat misuse.

BACKGROUND: Serious car seat installation errors occur at high rates in infants and children. These errors significantly increase the risk of child injury in a motor vehicle crash, and few interventions have addressed the challenge longitudinally. METHODS: This was a pilot randomised controlled feasibility trial of virtual car seat safety checks for caregivers of newborns recruited from an urban newborn nursery. The control (enhanced usual care (EUC)) group received an in-person car seat check as a newborn and virtual check at 9 months. The intervention group received two additional virtual checks at 3 and 6 months. Installation and infant positioning errors were documented and corrected by a child passenger safety technician (CPST). We measured feasibility and acceptability by tracking caregiver and CPST challenges, and caregiver retention. Group differences were tested for statistical significance using χ2 or Fisher's exact test for categorical variables, and two sample t-tests for continuous variables. RESULTS: 33 caregivers were randomised to the EUC and 28 to the intervention group. Virtual checks were feasible, with variable participation levels at each quarter. Wi-Fi and app challenges noted in 30%. There was satisfaction with the virtual car seat checks. At baseline, car seat installation and infant positioning errors occurred at equal frequency, and at 9 months the intervention group had a significantly lower mean proportion than the EUC group in all categories of errors. In summary, virtual seat checks are feasible and the optimal timing of repeat checks requires additional study. A larger study is needed to further evaluate the effect of longitudinal virtual checks on errors.

An Expected Score Approach to Ordinal Outcomes in a Bayesian, Response Adaptive, Randomized Trial.

Ordinal outcomes are common in medicine and can be analyzed in many ways, but the distribution of ordinal data can present unique challenges. The proposed KESETT study is a three-armed, randomized trial comparing two doses of ketamine plus levetiracetam to levetiracetam alone for treating patients with benzodiazepine-refractory status epilepticus. A Bayesian, adaptive clinical trial is proposed employing an ordinal primary outcome at 60 minutes ranging from 1 (improving consciousness and seizure cessation) to 5 (life-threatening event/death). Based on a previous study, the ordinal outcome is expected to have a bimodal distribution, with the effect of treatment expected to be non-proportional across the outcome scale. As such, approaches relying on assuming proportionality of the odds are not appropriate. We propose for this scenario an analytic approach to compare ordinal outcomes using the expected score derived from the posterior distribution for each treatment group. This approach requires minimal assumptions, maintains the benefit of using the full ordinal scale, is interpretable, and can be used in a Bayesian analysis framework. We compare this new approach under multiple simulated scenarios to 3 traditional frequentist approaches. The new approach controls type I error and power, resulting in a sizable reduction in sample size relative to a non-parametric test.

Socio-economic and ethnocultural influences on geographical disparities in breast cancer screening participation in Victoria, Australia.

Objective: To examine the socio-economic and ethnocultural characteristics of geographical areas that may influence variation in breast cancer screening participation. Methods: In a cross-sectional analysis breast cancer screening participation for statistical areas in Victoria, Australia (2015-2017) was linked with data from the 2016 Australian Census. We selected four commonly used area-level measures of socio-economic status from the Australian Census (i) income (ii) educational level (iii) occupational status and (iv) employment profile. To assess the ethnocultural characteristics of statistical areas we used the Census measures (i) country of birth (ii) language spoken at home (iii) fluency in English (iv) religion and (v) the proportion of immigrants in an area, together with their recency of migration. Results: All the selected measures were related to screening participation. There was a high degree of association both within and between socio-economic and ethnocultural characteristics of areas as they relate to screening. Ethnocultural characteristics alone accounted for most of the explained geographical disparity in screening participation. Conclusions: Geographical disparities in breast cancer screening participation may be due to ethnocultural factors that are confounded with socio-economic factors.