On the origin of obesity: identifying the biological, environmental and cultural drivers of genetic risk among human populations.

Genetic predisposition to obesity presents a paradox: how do genetic variants with a detrimental impact on human health persist through evolutionary time? Numerous hypotheses, such as the thrifty genotype hypothesis, attempt to explain this phenomenon yet fail to provide a justification for the modern obesity epidemic. In this critical review, we appraise existing theories explaining the evolutionary origins of obesity and explore novel biological and sociocultural agents of evolutionary change to help explain the modern-day distribution of obesity-predisposing variants. Genetic drift, acting as a form of 'blind justice,' may randomly affect allele frequencies across generations while gene pleiotropy and adaptations to diverse environments may explain the rise and subsequent selection of obesity risk alleles. As an adaptive response, epigenetic regulation of gene expression may impact the manifestation of genetic predisposition to obesity. Finally, exposure to malnutrition and disease epidemics in the wake of oppressive social systems, culturally mediated notions of attractiveness and desirability, and diverse mating systems may play a role in shaping the human genome. As an important first step towards the identification of important drivers of obesity gene evolution, this review may inform empirical research focused on testing evolutionary theories by way of population genetics and mathematical modelling.

Quantifying the contribution of asymptomatic infection to the cumulative incidence.

Many infectious diseases in humans may manifest with no or mild symptoms. While numerous studies have estimated the proportion of infectious individuals in whom symptoms are absent during the entire course of infection, the contribution of asymptomatic cases to the overall cumulative incidence is difficult to untangle. Here, with a mathematical model, we provide a simple analytical formula to quantify this contribution and highlight the potential for large errors that can arise when naively estimating it.

Epidemiological impact of a syphilis vaccine: a simulation study.

Despite the availability of inexpensive antimicrobial treatment, syphilis remains prevalent worldwide, affecting millions of individuals. Furthermore, syphilis infection is suspected of increasing both susceptibility to, and tendency to transmit, HIV. Development of a syphilis vaccine would be a potentially promising step towards control, but the value of dedicating resources to vaccine development should be evaluated in the context of the anticipated benefits. Here, we use a detailed mathematical model to explore the potential impact of rolling out a hypothetical syphilis vaccine on morbidity from both syphilis and HIV and compare it to the impact of expanded 'screen and treat' programmes using existing treatments. Our results suggest that an efficacious vaccine has the potential to sharply reduce syphilis prevalence under a wide range of scenarios, while expanded treatment interventions are likely to be substantially less effective. Our modelled interventions in our simulated study populations are expected to have little effect on HIV, and in some scenarios lead to small increases in HIV incidence, suggesting that interventions against syphilis should be accompanied with interventions against other sexually transmitted infections to prevent the possibility that lower morbidity or lower perceived risk from syphilis could lead to increases in other sexually transmitted diseases.