A new biomarker panel for differential diagnosis of cholangiocarcinoma: Results from an exploratory analysis.

INTRODUCTION: Diagnosis of cholangiocarcinoma (CCA) can be challenging due to unclear imaging criteria and difficulty obtaining adequate tissue biopsy. Although serum cancer antigen 19-9 and carcinoembryonic antigen have been proposed as potential diagnostic aids, their use remains limited by insufficient sensitivity and specificity. This exploratory analysis aimed to identify individual- and combinations of serum biomarkers to distinguish CCA from hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and chronic liver disease (CLD) controls using samples from a published study. METHODS: This prospective, multicenter, case-control study included patients aged ≥18 years at high-risk of HCC. Serum and ethylene diamine tetraacetic acid-plasma samples were collected prior to any treatment and confirmed diagnosis of HCC or CCA. Fourteen biomarkers (measured by electrochemiluminescence immunoassays or enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays) were subjected to univariate analysis and 13 included in a multivariate analysis (per selected combinations and exhaustive search). RESULTS: Overall, 55 CCA, 306 HCC, and 733 CLD control samples were analyzed. For distinguishing CCA from HCC, alpha-fetoprotein and matrix metalloproteinase-2 (MMP-2) showed the best individual performance (area under the curve (AUC) 86.6% and 84.4%, respectively); tissue inhibitor of metalloproteinase-1 (TIMP-1) was most able to distinguish CCA from CLD (AUC 94.5%) and from HCC + CLD (AUC 88.6%). The combination of MMP-2 and TIMP-1 was the best-performing two-marker panel, with AUC >90% for all comparisons. CONCLUSION: MMP-2 and TIMP-1 are promising biomarkers that could support differential diagnosis of CCA. Incorporating these assays into the diagnostic algorithm could provide additional diagnostic information in a non-invasive, rapid manner, and could supplement existing diagnostic methods.

CAMP-B score predicts the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with chronic hepatitis B after HBsAg seroclearance.

BACKGROUND: Risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) persists after hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) seroclearance in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). AIMS: To identify risk factors and construct a predictive model for HCC development. METHODS: We retrospectively analysed patients with CHB with HBsAg seroclearance. Primary outcome was HCC development. Factors identified from a multivariate Cox model in the training cohort, consisting of 3476 patients from two Korean hospitals, were used to construct the prediction model. External validation was performed using data from 5255 patients in Hong Kong. RESULTS: In the training cohort, HCC occurred in 102 patients during 24,019 person-years of observation (0.43%/year). Risk scores were assigned to cirrhosis (C:3), age ≥50 years (A:2), male sex (M:3) and platelet count <150,000/mm3 (P:1); all were independently associated with an increased risk of HCC in multivariate analysis The time-dependent area under receiver operating characteristic curves for 5, 10 and 15 years in the training and validation cohorts were 0.782, 0.817 and 0.825 and 0.785, 0.771 and 0.796, respectively. In the validation cohort, 85 patients developed HCC (0.24%/year). The corresponding incidence of HCC in the low-, intermediate- and high-risk groups were 0.07%, 0.37% and 0.90%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The CAMP-B score (cirrhosis, age ≥50 years, male sex and platelet count <150,000/mm3/L) was significantly associated with HCC development after HBsAg seroclearance. CAMP-B score can be easily implemented in real-world clinical practice and helps stratify HCC risk in patients with CHB following HBsAg seroclearance.

A Liver Stiffness-Based Etiology-Independent Machine Learning Algorithm to Predict Hepatocellular Carcinoma.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The existing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk scores have modest accuracy, and most are specific to chronic hepatitis B infection. In this study, we developed and validated a liver stiffness-based machine learning algorithm (ML) for prediction and risk stratification of HCC in various chronic liver diseases (CLDs). METHODS: MLs were trained for prediction of HCC in 5155 adult patients with various CLDs in Korea and further tested in 2 prospective cohorts from Hong Kong (HK) (N = 2732) and Europe (N = 2384). Model performance was assessed according to Harrell's C-index and time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. RESULTS: We developed the SMART-HCC score, a liver stiffness-based ML HCC risk score, with liver stiffness measurement ranked as the most important among 9 clinical features. The Harrell's C-index of the SMART-HCC score in HK and Europe validation cohorts were 0.89 (95% confidence interval, 0.85-0.92) and 0.91 (95% confidence interval, 0.87-0.95), respectively. The area under ROC curves of the SMART-HCC score for HCC in 5 years was ≥0.89 in both validation cohorts. The performance of SMART-HCC score was significantly better than existing HCC risk scores including aMAP score, Toronto HCC risk index, and 7 hepatitis B-related risk scores. Using dual cutoffs of 0.043 and 0.080, the annual HCC incidence was 0.09%-0.11% for low-risk group and 2.54%-4.64% for high-risk group in the HK and Europe validation cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: The SMART-HCC score is a useful machine learning-based tool for clinicians to stratify HCC risk in patients with CLDs.

Long-term use of tenofovir disoproxil fumarate increases fracture risk in elderly patients with chronic hepatitis B.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The use of tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) is associated with a reduction in bone mineral density and an increase in bone metabolism biomarkers. However, data on clinical bone fractures remain limited. We evaluated the impact of TDF compared to entecavir on the risk of fracture in elderly patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). METHODS: Patients with CHB aged ≥60 years receiving entecavir or TDF between January 2008 and December 2022 were identified using a territory-wide database in Hong Kong. The risk of incident fracture in entecavir- and TDF-treated patients before and after month 24 were compared after propensity score matching. RESULTS: A total of 41,531 patients with CHB (mean age 69.8±7.8 years, 61.6% male) receiving entecavir (n = 39,897 [96.1%]) and TDF (n = 1,634 [3.9%]) were analysed. At a median follow-up of 25.3 (9.1-58.5) months, 1,733 (4.2%) patients developed incident fracture. Patients with incident fracture were more likely to have diabetes, hypertension, congestive heart failure, rheumatoid arthritis, osteoporosis, and a history of fracture. Compared with propensity score-matched entecavir-treated patients, the risk of incident fracture in TDF-treated patients was comparable in the first 24 months (weighted subdistribution hazard ratio [sHR] 0.99, 95% CI 0.56-1.73, p = 0.960) but increased after month 24 (weighted sHR 1.80, 95% CI 1.11-2.93, p = 0.019). The 24-, 60-, and 96-month cumulative incidences (95% CI) of fracture in TDF-treated and entecavir-treated patients were 2.3% (1.6%-3.4%) vs. 2.6% (1.9%-3.5%), 6.4% (5.0%-8.2%) vs. 4.7% (3.8%-6.0%), and 10.2% (8.3%-12.6%) vs. 6.8% (5.4%-8.5%), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The risk of fracture increased with TDF treatment for ≥24 months in elderly patients with CHB. Selection of nucleos(t)ide analogues should be individualised based on age and comorbidities. IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS: Previous literature suggested that the use of tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) is associated with a decrease in bone mineral density. However, data on the impact of TDF on long-term incident clinical fracture remains scarce. In this real-world territory-wide study of 41,531 treated patients with chronic hepatitis B in Hong Kong, patients who received TDF were at a higher risk of fracture after 2 years of treatment than those who received entecavir. Given the ageing population of patients with chronic hepatitis B and the rising prevalence of comorbidities, our findings support the current treatment guidelines that recommend selecting antiviral treatment based on age and comorbidities.

Discovery of a haptoglobin glycopeptides biomarker panel for early diagnosis of hepatocellular carcinoma.

Background: There is a need for new serum biomarkers for early detection of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Haptoglobin (Hp) N-glycosylation is altered in HCC, but the diagnostic value of site-specific Hp glycobiomarkers is rarely reported. We aimed to determine the site-specific glycosylation profile of Hp for early-stage HCC diagnosis. Method: Hp glycosylation was analyzed in the plasma of patients with liver diseases (n=57; controls), early-stage HCC (n=50) and late-stage HCC (n=32). Hp phenotype was determined by immunoblotting. Hp was immunoisolated and digested into peptides. N-glycopeptides were identified and quantified using liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry. Cohort samples were compared using Wilcoxon rank-sum (Mann-Whitney U) tests. Diagnostic performance was assessed using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and area under curve (AUC). Results: Significantly higher fucosylation, branching and sialylation of Hp glycans, and expression of high-mannose glycans, was observed as disease progressed from cirrhosis to early- and late-stage HCC. Several glycopeptides demonstrated high values for early diagnosis of HCC, with an AUC of 93% (n=1), >80% (n=3), >75% (n=13) and >70% (n=11), compared with alpha-fetoprotein (AFP; AUC of 79%). The diagnostic performance of the identified biomarkers was only slightly affected by Hp phenotype. Conclusion: We identified a panel of Hp glycopeptides that are significantly differentially regulated in early- and late-stage HCC. Some glycobiomarkers exceeded the diagnostic value of AFP (the most commonly used biomarker for HCC diagnosis). Our findings provide evidence that glycobiomarkers can be effective in the diagnosis of early HCC - individually, as a panel of glycopeptides or combined with conventional serological biomarkers.

Baveno VII criteria for recompensation predict transplant-free survival in patients with hepatitis B-related decompensated cirrhosis.

Background & Aims: The latest Baveno VII consensus has provided guidance for identifying patients who have truly recompensated from those with hepatic decompensation. This study aimed to evaluate patients' transplant-free survival in three different stages of cirrhosis. Methods: All patients with chronic HBV infection and liver cirrhosis treated with oral nucleos(t)ide analogues from March 2006 to December 2022 were identified from a territory-wide database in Hong Kong. Patients with follow-up duration of <1 year were excluded. Participants were classified into three mutually exclusive groups: (1) no decompensated events (i.e. compensated group); (2) decompensated events occurred (i.e. decompensated group); or (3) decompensated events occurred followed by recompensation according to Baveno VII criteria (i.e. recompensated group). A time-dependent Cox proportional hazard model was adopted for evaluation. The follow-up period was 5 years. Results: A total of 4,701 patients with cirrhosis and HBV who were treated with entecavir, tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF), and tenofovir alafenamide fumarate (TAF) were identified. During a median follow-up of 5 years (interquartile range 3.7, 5 years), 3,327 (70.8%), 1,347 (29.2%), and 265 (5.6%) patients had compensated, decompensated, and recompensated cirrhosis, respectively, at least once before the end of the study. In the time-dependent multivariable model, the recompensated group had similar transplant-free survival compared with the compensated group (adjusted hazard ratio 1.16; 95% CI 0.72-1.86; p = 0.536). The 5-year transplant-free survival rate was 89.3% for the compensated group, whereas it was 76.0% for the recompensated group, reflecting a minimal difference between the two groups. Conclusions: The clinical significance of recompensation of cirrhosis in improving patient outcomes for individuals with CHB infection was highlighted in this study. Early identification and treatment with nucleos(t)ide analogues might promote hepatic recompensation and thus reduce mortality in patients with CHB. Impact and implications: The latest Baveno VII consensus introduces the new concept of hepatic recompensation, which refers to the reversal of the structural and functional changes of cirrhosis after removal, cure, or suppression of the aetiology of cirrhosis. It is essential to investigate the transplant-free survival rates of patients who are able to achieve hepatic recompensation, as this has significant implications for the medical resources required to manage liver failure and transplantation. This study features the clinical significance of hepatic recompensation by comparing patient outcomes of those who achieve it to those who do not. The early identification and use of antiviral treatment with nucleos(t)ide analogues is a pivotal strategy to promote hepatic recompensation, which has the potential to significantly reduce mortality rates in patients with chronic HBV infection and ultimately aid in the elimination of hepatitis.

Clinical care pathway to detect advanced liver disease in patients with type 2 diabetes through automated fibrosis score calculation and electronic reminder messages: a randomised controlled trial.

OBJECTIVE: We aimed to test the hypothesis that automated fibrosis score calculation and electronic reminder messages could increase the detection of advanced liver disease in patients with type 2 diabetes. DESIGN: In this pragmatic randomised controlled trial at five general medical or diabetes clinics in Hong Kong and Malaysia, we randomly assigned patients in a 1:1 ratio to the intervention group with Fibrosis-4 index and aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index automatically calculated based on routine blood tests, followed by electronic reminder messages to alert clinicians of abnormal results, or the control group with usual care. The primary outcome was the proportion of patients with increased fibrosis scores who received appropriate care (referred for hepatology care or specific fibrosis assessment) within 1 year. RESULTS: Between May 2020 and Oct 2021, 1379 patients were screened, of whom 533 and 528 were assigned to the intervention and control groups, respectively. A total of 55 out of 165 (33.3%) patients with increased fibrosis scores in the intervention group received appropriate care, compared with 4 of 131 (3.1%) patients in the control group (difference 30.2% (95% CI 22.4% to 38%); p<0.001). Overall, 11 out of 533 (2.1%) patients in the intervention group and 1 out of 528 (0.2%) patients in the control group were confirmed to have advanced liver disease (difference 1.9% (95% CI 0.61% to 3.5%); p=0.006). CONCLUSION: Automated fibrosis score calculation and electronic reminders can increase referral of patients with type 2 diabetes and abnormal fibrosis scores at non-hepatology settings. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT04241575.

Risk and predictors of hepatic decompensation in grey zone patients by the Baveno VII criteria: A competing risk analysis.

BACKGROUND: Baveno VII was proposed for non-invasive identification of clinically significant portal hypertension. However, a substantial proportion of patients is classified in the grey zone (i.e., liver stiffness 15-24.9 kPa and/or platelet count <150 × 109 /L). AIMS: To evaluate the risk and predictors of hepatic decompensation in patients in the grey zone, and to determine the prognostic role of spleen stiffness measurement. METHODS: We included prospective cohorts (from Hong Kong, Korea and France) of patients who had undergone transient elastography examination for chronic liver disease. We estimated risk of hepatic decompensation using competing risk regression with hepatocellular carcinoma and non-liver-related death as competing events. RESULTS: We identified 2763 patients with compensated advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD). There were 1243 (44.9%) and 536 (19.4%) patients in the Baveno VII grey zone and high-risk groups, respectively. The cumulative incidence of decompensation at 5 years was significantly different among low-risk (0.6% [95% CI: 0.2%-1.3%]), grey zone 4.2% (95% CI: 3.1%-5.4%) and high-risk groups (11.4% [95% CI: 8.7%-14.6%]). By competing risk analysis, aetiology of liver disease (alcohol-related liver disease), albumin-bilirubin score and alkaline phosphatase level were independently associated with decompensation among patients in the grey zone. The combination of Baveno VII and spleen stiffness significantly reduced patients classified into grey zone (12.8% in cACLD patients), while maintaining high discrimination of decompensation in low- and high-risk groups. CONCLUSIONS: Patients in grey zone of Baveno VII criteria remain at high risk of hepatic decompensation. Clinical risk factors and spleen stiffness can further stratify the risk in such patients.

Incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma and mortality in chronic viral hepatitis in an Asian population with and without HIV infection.

BACKGROUND: It is uncertain whether people with HIV infection have a higher incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) than the general population. AIMS: To compare the incidence of HCC between people infected with HBV and/or HCV with and without HIV METHODS: We performed a retrospective population-based cohort study, involving people with HBV and/or HCV infection from 2001 to 2018. The primary endpoint was incidence of HCC; secondary endpoint was all-cause mortality. We performed Cox proportional hazard regression models to estimate the hazard ratios (HR) of HIV for the primary and secondary endpoints. RESULTS: We identified 1374 people infected with HIV and 39,908 people without HIV with HBV and/or HCV infection. Among those with HIV, 654 (47.6%) had HBV, 649 (47.2%) HCV and 71 (5.2%) HBV-HCV-co-infection; they were younger, and had a higher prevalence of HCV and a lower prevalence of cirrhosis. The incidence rate estimates of HCC were, respectively, 1.5 (95% CI: 0.8-2.5) and 7.6 (95% CI 7.3-8.0) per 1000 person-years for those with and without HIV infection. Using multivariate Cox proportional hazard regression models, among people with HBV, HIV was associated with lower risk of HCC (adjusted HR: 0.376, 95% CI: 0.201-0.704, p = 0.01) and death (adjusted HR: 0.692, 95% CI: 0.552-0.867, p = 0.007). Risks of HCC were similar for HCV and HBV-HCV co-infection for people with and without HIV. CONCLUSIONS: Among individuals with HBV infection, the Incidence of HCC was lower in those with HIV. For HCV infection, incidence of HCC was similar between those with and without HIV.

Advanced liver fibrosis predicts heart failure and hospitalizations in people with type 2 diabetes: A prospective cohort study from Hong Kong Diabetes Register.

AIMS: We aimed to examine the impact of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) on the clinical outcomes in patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D). METHODS: Between 2013 and 2014, 1,734 patients with T2D underwent transient elastography (TE) to assess liver status indicated by controlled attenuation parameter (CAP) and liver stiffness measurement (LSM). Liver steatosis was defined by CAP ≥ 248 dB/m and advanced liver fibrosis by LSM ≥ 10 kPa. In 2019, we assessed their clinical outcomes including hospitalizations and mortality. RESULTS: In this prospective cohort [56% men, mean (±standard deviation) age:60.8±11.5 years; glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c)7.8±1.6 %], 798 patients had liver steatosis, 296 patients had advanced liver fibrosis and 640 patients had normal liver at baseline. T2D with advanced liver fibrosis had higher body mass index, waist circumference, waist-hip ratio, fasting plasma glucose, HbA1c, blood pressure and lipid profiles than their counterparts with NAFLD or normal liver (all p < 0.05). After a median follow-up of 6.07 (interquartile range:5.84 to 6.30) years, there were 4,403 incident hospitalizations, 32,119 days of hospital stay, and 171 deaths. Using Cox regression analysis, advanced liver fibrosis was associated with increased risk of heart failure (hazard ratio [95% confidence interval] HR:3.07[1.08-8.68], p=0.035) and hospitalizations (HR:1.39[1.14-1.70], p=0.001) while liver steatosis was associated with reduced mortality (HR:0.60[0.41-0.87], p=0.007) compared to their counterparts with normal liver after adjustment for potential confounders. CONCLUSIONS: T2D comorbid with liver steatosis and advanced liver fibrosis are distinct clinical entities with differences in outcomes. Advanced liver fibrosis is an important predictor for worse outcomes including heart failure and hospitalizations in people with T2D.

Baveno VII Criteria Is an Accurate Risk Stratification Tool to Predict High-Risk Varices Requiring Intervention and Hepatic Events in Patients with Advanced Hepatocellular Carcinoma.

The Baveno VII criteria are used in patients with liver cirrhosis to predict high-risk varices in patients with liver cirrhosis. Yet its use in patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) has not been validated. HCC alone is accompanied with a higher variceal bleeding risk due to its association with liver cirrhosis and portal vein thrombosis. The use of systemic therapy in advanced HCC has been thought to further augment this risk. Upper endoscopy is commonly used to evaluate for the presence of varices before initiation of treatment with systemic therapy. Yet it is associated with procedural risks, waiting time and limited availability in some localities which may delay the commencement of systemic therapy. Our study successfully validated the Baveno VI criteria with a 3.5% varices needing treatment (VNT) missed rate, also with acceptable <5% VNT missed rates when considering alternative liver stiffness (LSM) and platelet cut-offs. The Baveno VII clinically significant portal hypertension rule-out criteria (LSM < 15 kPa and platelet >150 × 109/L) also revealed a low frequency (2%) of hepatic events, whilst the rule-in criteria (LSM > 25 kPa) was predictive of a higher proportion of hepatic events (14%). Therefore, our study has successfully validated the Baveno VII criteria as a non-invasive stratification of the risk of variceal bleeding and hepatic decompensation in the HCC population.

Baveno VII criteria identify varices needing treatment in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma of different Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer stages.

BACKGROUND: Baveno VII criteria for predicting varices needing treatment (VNT) have not been tested in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) population. We evaluated Baveno VII consensus for VNT in HCC patients of different stages according to Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stages undergoing curative hepatectomy. METHODS: This was a prospective cohort study of patients with HCC. Patients underwent transient elastography examination before HCC treatment and received at least one upper endoscopic examination afterwards. Patients were prospectively followed for clinical events including VNT. RESULTS: Six hundred and seventy-three patients (83.1% male, median age 62 years) with HCC of BCLC stage 0 (10%), A (57%), B (17%) and C (15%) were recruited and followed for 47 months. The median (range) LSM was 10.5 (6.9-20.4) kPa; 74% had LSM ≤ 20 kPa and 58% had platelet count ≥150 × 10/L, respectively. VNT occurred in 51 (7.6%) patients. In patients who fulfilled Baveno VII criteria, that is, LSM ≤ 20 kPa and platelet count above 150 × 10/L, only 11 (1.6%) patients had VNT. In all BCLC stages of HCC, the proportion of patients with VNT was below 5%, which support the validity and applicability of Baveno VII criteria in all BCLC stages of HCC. CONCLUSIONS: The Baveno VII criteria are valid and applicable in HCC patients undergoing curative hepatectomy for selecting patients to undergo screening endoscopy for VNT. The validity was consistent across different BCLC stages of HCC.

Clinical Outcomes Following Treatment for COVID-19 With Nirmatrelvir/Ritonavir and Molnupiravir Among Patients Living in Nursing Homes.

Importance: Older patients living in nursing homes are at very high risk of mortality after getting COVID-19. Objective: To evaluate outcomes following oral antiviral treatment for COVID-19 among nonhospitalized older patients living in nursing homes. Design, Setting, and Participants: This is a territory-wide, retrospective cohort study conducted between February 16 and March 31, 2022, with the last follow-up date on April 25, 2022. Participants were patients with COVID-19 living in nursing homes in Hong Kong. Data analysis was performed from May to June 2022. Exposures: Molnupiravir, nirmatrelvir/ritonavir, or no oral antiviral treatment. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was hospitalization for COVID-19, and the secondary outcome was risk of inpatient disease progression (ie, admission to intensive care unit, use of invasive mechanical ventilation, and/or death). Results: Of 14 617 patients (mean [SD] age, 84.8 [10.2] years; 8222 women [56.2%]), 8939 (61.2%) did not use oral antivirals, 5195 (35.5%) used molnupiravir, and 483 (3.3%) used nirmatrelvir/ritonavir. Compared with patients who did not use oral antivirals, those who used molnupiravir and nirmatrelvir/ritonavir were more likely to be female and less likely to have comorbid illnesses and hospitalization in the past year. At a median (IQR) follow-up of 30 (30-30) days, 6223 patients (42.6%) were hospitalized and 2307 patients (15.8%) experienced inpatient disease progression. After propensity score weighting, both molnupiravir and nirmatrelvir/ritonavir were associated with a reduced risk of hospitalization (molnupiravir, weighted hazard ratio [wHR], 0.46; 95% CI, 0.37-0.57; P < .001; nirmatrelvir/ritonavir, wHR, 0.46; 95% CI, 0.32-0.65; P < .001) and inpatient disease progression (molnupiravir, wHR, 0.35; 95% CI, 0.23-0.51; P < .001; nirmatrelvir/ritonavir, wHR, 0.17; 95% CI, 0.06-0.44; P < .001). Nirmatrelvir/ritonavir was comparable to molnupiravir in achieving better clinical outcomes (hospitalization, wHR, 1.00; 95% CI, 0.75-1.33; P = .99; inpatient disease progression, wHR, 0.49; 95% CI, 0.20-1.20; P = .12). Conclusions and Relevance: In this retrospective cohort study, the use of oral antivirals to treat COVID-19 was associated with a reduced risk of hospitalization and inpatient disease progression among patients living in nursing homes. The findings of this study of nursing home residents could be reasonably extrapolated to other frail older patients living in the community.

Duration of type 2 diabetes and liver-related events in nonalcoholic fatty liver disease: A landmark analysis.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: We aimed to determine the impact of the duration of type 2 diabetes (T2D) on the risk of liver-related events and all-cause mortality in patients with NAFLD. APPROACH AND RESULTS: We conducted a territory-wide cohort study of adult patients with NAFLD diagnosed between January 1, 2000, and July 31, 2021, in Hong Kong. T2D was defined by the use of any antidiabetic agents, laboratory tests, and/or diagnosis codes. The primary endpoint was liver-related events, defined as a composite endpoint of HCC and cirrhotic complications. To conduct a more granular assessment of the duration of T2D, we employed landmark analysis in four different ages of interest (biological age of 40, 50, 60, and 70 years). By multivariable analysis with adjustment of non-liver-related deaths, compared with patients without diabetes at age 60 (incidence rate of liver-related events: 0.70 per 1,000 person-years), the adjusted subdistribution HR (SHR) of liver-related events was 2.51 (95% CI: 1.32-4.77; incidence rate: 2.26 per 1,000 person-years) in patients with T2D duration < 5 years, 3.16 (95% CI: 1.59-6.31; incidence rate: 2.54 per 1,000 person-years) in those with T2D duration of 6-10 years, and 6.20 (95% CI: 2.62-14.65; incidence rate: 4.17 per 1000 person-years) in those with T2D duration more than 10 years. A similar association between the duration of T2D and all-cause mortality was also observed. CONCLUSIONS: Longer duration of T2D is significantly associated with a higher risk of liver-related events and all-cause mortality in patients with NAFLD.

Trends in risk factor control and treatment among patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and type 2 diabetes between 2000 and 2020: A territory-wide study.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: We aimed to determine the trends in risk factor control and treatment among patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and type 2 diabetes (T2D) in 2000-2020. METHODS: We conducted a territory-wide cohort study of adult patients with NAFLD and T2D diagnosed between 1 January 2000 and 31 July 2021 in Hong Kong. T2D was defined by use of any anti-diabetic agents, laboratory tests and/or diagnosis codes. RESULTS: This study included 16,084 patients with NAFLD and T2D (mean age, 54.8 ± 12.0 years; 7124 male [44.3%]). The percentage of patients achieving individualised haemoglobin A1c (HbA1c ) targets increased from 44.5% (95% confidence interval [CI], 42.9-46.1) to 64.8% (95% CI, 64.1-65.5), and percentage of patients achieving individualised low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol (LDL-C) targets increased from 23.3% (95% CI, 21.9-24.7) to 54.3% (95% CI, 53.5-55.1) from 2000-2005 to 2016-2020, whereas percentage of patients achieving blood pressure control (<140/90 mm Hg) remained static at 53.1-57.2%. Combination therapy for diabetes increased, especially among those with poor glycaemic control, but there was no increase in combination therapy for hypertension. Fewer cirrhotic patients achieved blood pressure control and individualised LDL-C targets, but they were more likely to achieve individualised HbA1c targets than non-cirrhotics. Metformin and statins were underused in cirrhotic patients. Younger patients (18-44 years) were less likely to achieve individualised HbA1c targets than middle-aged (45-64 years) and older ones (≥65 years). CONCLUSIONS: From 2000 to 2020, glycaemic and lipid control improved significantly, whereas blood pressure control remained static among patients with NAFLD and T2D.

Diabetes Mellitus Impacts on the Performance of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Risk Scores in Chronic Hepatitis B Patients.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: We examined whether changing clinical characteristics and presence of diabetes mellitus (DM) impact the performance of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk scores. METHODS: Adult patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) on ≥6 months of entecavir/tenofovir treatment between January 2005 and March 2020 were identified using a territory-wide electronic database in Hong Kong. DM was defined by antidiabetic agents, hemoglobin A1c ≥6.5%, fasting glucose ≥7 mmol/L, and/or diagnosis codes. PAGE-B, modified PAGE-B (mPAGE-B), and aMAP scores were assessed by area under the time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROCs) and compared with CAMD and REAL-B scores with DM as a component. RESULTS: Of 48,706 patients, 2792, 11,563, 15,471, and 18,880 started entecavir/tenofovir treatment between 2005-2008, 2009-2012, 2013-2016, and 2017-2020, respectively; DM prevalence rose from 15.5% in 2005-2008 to 24.3% in 2017-2020. AUROCs were comparable across the 4 periods in the 5 HCC risk scores (AUROCs ranged between 0.75 and 0.81). At a median follow-up of 4.4 years, 1512 non-diabetic (4.0%) and 645 (6.2%) diabetic patients developed HCC. AUROCs of all 5 scores were lower in diabetic patients than in non-diabetic patients (AUROCs ranged between 0.67-0.71 vs 0.78-0.82; all P < .001). REAL-B score achieved an AUROC of 0.71 in diabetic and 0.82 in non-diabetic patients. Both diabetic and non-diabetic patients in the low-risk group by REAL-B score had a low HCC incidence below the threshold of cost-effective HCC surveillance, ie, 0.2% annually. CONCLUSIONS: REAL-B score is accurate and preferred in entecavir/tenofovir-treated CHB patients because of the increasing prevalence of DM.

Utility of combining PIVKA-II and AFP in the surveillance and monitoring of hepatocellular carcinoma in the Asia-Pacific region.

Even though the combined use of ultrasound (US) and alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) is recommended for the surveillance of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), the utilization of AFP has its challenges, including accuracy dependent on its cut-off levels, degree of liver necroinflammation, and etiology of liver disease. Though various studies have demonstrated the utility of protein induced by vitamin K absence II (PIVKA-II) in surveillance, treatment monitoring, and predicting recurrence, it is still not recommended as a routine biomarker test. A panel of 17 experts from Asia-Pacific, gathered to discuss and reach a consensus on the clinical usefulness and value of PIVKA-II for the surveillance and treatment monitoring of HCC, based on six predetermined statements. The experts agreed that PIVKA-II was valuable in the detection of HCC in AFP-negative patients, and could potentially benefit detection of early HCC in combination with AFP. PIVKA-II is clinically useful for monitoring curative and intra-arterial locoregional treatments, outcomes, and recurrence, and could potentially predict microvascular invasion risk and facilitate patient selection for liver transplant. However, combining PIVKA-II with US and AFP for HCC surveillance, including small HCC, still requires more evidence, whilst its role in detecting AFP-negative HCC will potentially increase as more patients are treated for hepatitis-related HCC. PIVKA-II in combination with AFP and US has a clinical role in the Asia-Pacific region for surveillance. However, implementation of PIVKA-II in the region will have some challenges, such as requiring standardization of cut-off values, its cost-effectiveness and improving awareness among healthcare providers.

Risk of hepatic decompensation but not hepatocellular carcinoma decreases over time in patients with hepatitis B surface antigen loss.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: We examined the long-term incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and hepatic decompensation among chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients who have achieved hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) seroclearance. METHODS: All adult CHB-monoinfected patients who cleared HBsAg between January 2000 and December 2020 were identified using a territory-wide database in Hong Kong. Patients who underwent liver transplantation and/or developed HCC before HBsAg seroclearance or less than 6 months follow-up were excluded. The primary and secondary endpoints were HCC and hepatic decompensation respectively. RESULTS: We identified 9,769 patients with CHB who achieved HBsAg seroclearance (mean age 57 years, 60.0% male, 13.2% cirrhosis); most had compensated liver function at HBsAg loss. At a median (25th-75th percentile) follow-up of 4.6 (2.2-8.4) years, 106 (1.1%) patients developed HCC. Patients who developed HCC were older, more likely to be male and have cirrhosis, and had higher alanine aminotransferase and lower platelets at the time of HBsAg loss than patients without HCC. The cumulative incidence of HCC remained steady 0-7 and 8-12 years after HBsAg loss (p = 0.898) (crude annual incidence drop: -0.04%, 95% CI -0.13% to 0.04%, p = 0.265). Moreover, 124/9,640 (1.3%) patients developed hepatic decompensation. The growth in cumulative incidence of hepatic decompensation decelerated 8-12 years after HBsAg loss (p = 0.009) (crude annual incidence drop: -0.23%, 95% CI -0.40% to -0.06%, p = 0.012). In multivariable analysis, HBsAg loss for over 7 years was associated with a reduced risk of hepatic decompensation (adjusted subdistribution hazard ratio [aSHR] 0.55, 95% CI 0.31-0.97, p = 0.039) but not HCC (aSHR 1.35, 95% CI 0.83-2.19, p = 0.230). CONCLUSION: HCC risk persists in patients after HBsAg loss, whereas the risk of hepatic decompensation decreases over time. IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS: Patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) still have a non-negligible risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after 12 years of HBsAg seroclearance, especially among those with cirrhosis. The risk of developing hepatic decompensation decreases over time after HBsAg seroclearance. In clinical practice, although patients with CHB who cleared HBsAg have a more favourable clinical outcome than those who remain chronically infected, long-term HCC surveillance would still be necessary for patients with cirrhosis and other high-risk subgroups after HBsAg seroclearance.

Age and the relative importance of liver-related deaths in nonalcoholic fatty liver disease.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: It is unclear if the leading causes of death in patients with NAFLD differ by age. We aimed to investigate if the relative importance of liver-related deaths is lower and overshadowed by cardiovascular and cancer-related deaths in the elderly population. APPROACH AND RESULTS: We conducted a territory-wide retrospective cohort study of adult patients with NAFLD between 2000 and 2021 in Hong Kong. The outcomes of interest were all-cause and cause-specific mortality. Age groups at death were studied at 10-year intervals. During 662,471 person-years of follow-up of 30,943 patients with NAFLD, there were 2097 deaths. The top three causes of death were pneumonia, extrahepatic cancer, and cardiovascular diseases. Liver disease was the sixth leading cause of death in patients aged 70-79 and 80-89 years, accounting for 5.1% and 5.9% of deaths, respectively, but only accounted for 3% or fewer of the deaths in the other age groups. Nonetheless, liver disease was the leading cause of death in patients with NAFLD-related cirrhosis, accounting for 36.8% of all deaths. The incidence of liver-related death was higher in men younger than age 70 but higher in women afterwards. The incidence of liver-related death in women increased from 0.62 to 7.14 per 10,000 person-years from age 60-69 to 70-79 years. CONCLUSION: The relative importance of liver-related death increases with age in patients with NAFLD, especially among women. In patients with cirrhosis, liver disease is the leading cause of death.

Impact of the Use of Oral Antiviral Agents on the Risk of Hospitalization in Community Coronavirus Disease 2019 Patients (COVID-19).

BACKGROUND: We examined the effectiveness of molnupiravir and nirmatrelvir/ritonavir in reducing hospitalization and deaths in a real-world cohort of nonhospitalized patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). METHODS: This was a territory-wide retrospective cohort study in Hong Kong. Nonhospitalized COVID-19 patients who attended designated outpatient clinics between 16 February and 31 March 2022 were identified. Patients hospitalized on the day of the first clinic appointment or used both oral antivirals were excluded. The primary endpoint was hospitalization. The secondary endpoint was a composite of intensive care unit admission, invasive mechanical ventilation use, and/or death. RESULTS: Of 93 883 patients, 83 154 (88.6%), 5808 (6.2%), and 4921 (5.2%) were oral antiviral nonusers, molnupiravir users, and nirmatrelvir/ritonavir users, respectively. Compared with nonusers, oral antiviral users were older and had more comorbidities, lower complete vaccination rate, and more hospitalizations in the previous year. Molnupiravir users were older and had more comorbidities, lower complete vaccination rate, and more hospitalizations in the previous year than nirmatrelvir/ritonavir users. At a median follow-up of 30 days, 1931 (2.1%) patients were hospitalized and 225 (0.2%) patients developed the secondary endpoint. After propensity score weighting, nirmatrelvir/ritonavir use (weighted hazard ratio 0.79; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.65-0.95; P = .011) but not molnupiravir use (weighted hazard ratio 1.17; 95% CI, 0.99-1.39; P = .062) was associated with a reduced risk of hospitalization than nonusers. The use of molnupiravir or nirmatrelvir/ritonavir was not associated with a lower risk of the secondary endpoint as compared with nonusers. CONCLUSION: Use of nirmatrelvir/ritonavir but not molnupiravir was associated with a reduced risk of hospitalization in real-world nonhospitalized patients with COVID-19.