Association between tobacco industry denormalisation beliefs and support for tobacco endgame policies: a population-based study in Hong Kong.

OBJECTIVES: To examine the associations between tobacco industry denormalisation (TID) beliefs and support for tobacco endgame policies. METHODS: A total of 2810 randomly selected adult respondents of population-based tobacco policy-related surveys (2018-2019) were included. TID beliefs (agree vs disagree/unsure) were measured by seven items: tobacco manufacturers ignore health, induce addiction, hide harm, spread false information, lure smoking, interfere with tobacco control policies and should be responsible for health problems. Score of each item was summed up and dichotomised (median=5, >5 strong beliefs; ≤5 weak beliefs). Support for tobacco endgame policies on total bans of tobacco sales (yes/no) and use (yes/no) was reported. Associations between TID beliefs and tobacco endgame policies support across various smoking status were analysed, adjusting for sociodemographics. RESULTS: Fewer smokers (23.3%) had strong beliefs of TID than ex-smokers (48.4%) and never smokers (48.5%) (p<0.001). Support for total bans on tobacco sales (74.6%) and use (76.9%) was lower in smokers (33.3% and 35.3%) than ex-smokers (74.3% and 77.9%) and never smokers (76.0% and 78.3%) (all p values<0.001). An increase in the number of TID beliefs supported was positively associated with support for a total ban on sales (adjusted risk ratio 1.06, 95% CI 1.05 to 1.08, p<0.001) and use (1.06, 95% CI 1.05 to 1.07, p<0.001). The corresponding associations were stronger in smokers than non-smokers (sales: 1.87 vs 1.25, p value for interaction=0.03; use: 1.78 vs 1.21, p value for interaction=0.03). CONCLUSION: Stronger TID belief was associated with greater support for total bans on tobacco sales and use. TID intervention may increase support for tobacco endgame, especially in current smokers.

Predictive factors of delayed viral clearance of asymptomatic Omicron-related COVID-19 screened positive in patients with cancer receiving active anticancer treatment.

OBJECTIVES: We sought to identify the predictors of delayed viral clearance in patients with cancer with asymptomatic COVID-19 when the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variants prevailed in Hong Kong. METHODS: All patients with cancer who were attending radiation therapy for head and neck malignancies or systemic anticancer therapy saved their deep throat saliva or nasopharyngeal swabs at least twice weekly for SARS-CoV-2 screening between January 1 and April 30, 2022. The multivariate analyses identified predictors of delayed viral clearance (or slow recovery), defined as >21 days for the cycle threshold values rising to ≥30 or undetectable in two consecutive samples saved within 72 hours. Three machine learning algorithms evaluated the prediction performance of the predictors. RESULTS: A total of 200 (15%) of 1309 patients tested positive for SARS-CoV-2. Age >65 years (P = 0.036), male sex (P = 0.003), high Charlson comorbidity index (P = 0.042), lung cancer (P = 0.018), immune checkpoint inhibitor (P = 0.036), and receipt of one or no dose of COVID-19 vaccine (P = 0.003) were significant predictors. The three machine learning algorithms revealed that the mean ± SD area-under-the-curve values predicting delayed viral clearance with the cut-off cycle threshold value ≥30 was 0.72 ± 0.11. CONCLUSION: We identified subgroups with delayed viral clearance that may benefit from targeted interventions.

Overall Survival Benefits of First-Line Treatments for Asian Patients with Advanced Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor-Mutated NSCLC Harboring Exon 19 Deletion: A Systematic Review and Network Meta-Analysis.

(1) Background: Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) have explored various primary treatments for individuals diagnosed as having later-stage epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR)-mutated non-small-cell lung cancer. Nevertheless, the extent to which such treatments are efficacious, particularly with regard to overall survival (OS) rates of patients from Asia with exon 19 deletion (19del), has yet to be clarified. (2) Methods: A systematic review and frequentist network meta-analysis were conducted by obtaining pertinent studies from PubMed/MEDLINE Ovid, Embase, Cochrane Library, and trial registries, as well as various other sources. RCTs in which two or multiple treatments in the primary setting for patients from Asia with EGFR 19del were compared were included. This research has been recorded in the Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (CRD 42022320833). (3) Results: A total of 2715 patients from Asia participated in 18 trials in which 12 different treatments were administered, which included: EGFR tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKIs) (osimertinib, dacomitinib, afatinib, erlotinib, gefitinib, and icotinib), pemetrexed-based chemotherapy, pemetrexed-free chemotherapy, and combination treatments (gefitinib plus apatinib, erlotinib plus ramucirumab, erlotinib plus bevacizumab, and gefitinib plus pemetrexed-based chemotherapy). Such treatments were not significantly beneficial in terms of OS for patients from Asia who had 19del. It was demonstrated that erlotinib plus bevacizumab, ramucirumab plus erlotinib, and osimertinib consistently yielded the greatest benefits regarding progression-free survival benefit (P-scores = 94%, 84%, and 80%, respectively). Combination treatments resulted in increased toxicity, particularly gefitinib plus apatinib and erlotinib plus bevacizumab, causing the highest prevalence of grade ≥ 3 adverse events. Icotinib and osimertinib had the fewest grade ≥ 3 adverse events. Specific treatments were associated with a wide range of toxicity levels. (4) Conclusions: In patients from Asia with 19del, both EGFR-TKIs and treatments in which therapies were combined exhibited no OS benefits in comparison with standard chemotherapy treatments. Additional research is required to study TKIs' resistance mechanisms and possible combined approaches for individuals harboring this common mutation.

Overall Survival Benefits of First-Line Treatments for Asian Patients With Advanced EGFR-Mutated NSCLC Harboring L858R Mutation: A Systematic Review and Network Meta-Analysis.

Introduction: Randomized controlled trials have investigated different first-line treatments for patients with advanced EGFR-mutated NSCLC. Nevertheless, their efficacy, in particular, the long-term overall survival (OS) benefit in Asian patients with L858R mutation, remains unclear. Methods: We performed a systematic review and frequentist network meta-analysis by retrieving relevant literature from PubMed/MEDLINE, Ovid, EMBASE, Cochrane Library, trial registries, and other sources. We included randomized controlled trials comparing two or more treatments in the first-line setting for Asian patients with L858R mutation. This study was registered in the Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (CRD 42022295897). Results: There were a total of 18 trials that involved 1852 Asian patients and 12 treatments, including the following: EGFR tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKIs) (osimertinib, dacomitinib, afatinib, erlotinib, gefitinib, and icotinib), pemetrexed-based chemotherapy, pemetrexed-free chemotherapy, and combination treatments (gefitinib plus apatinib, erlotinib plus ramucirumab, erlotinib plus bevacizumab and gefitinib plus pemetrexed-based chemotherapy). Asian patients with L858R mutation had no significant OS benefits from all these treatments. Gefitinib plus pemetrexed-based chemotherapy, dacomitinib, osimertinib, and erlotinib plus bevacizumab were found to be consistent in yielding the best progression-free survival benefit (p scores = 93%, 79%, 77%, and 70%). Combination treatments caused more toxicity, especially erlotinib plus bevacizumab and gefitinib plus pemetrexed-based chemotherapy, resulting in the greatest incidence of grade greater than or equal to 3 adverse events. Conclusions: In Asian patients harboring L858R mutation, EGFR TKIs and combination treatments had no OS benefit when compared with conventional chemotherapies. Further studies are warranted to investigate the resistance mechanism with TKIs and potential combination strategies in patients with this common but less favorable mutation.

An Exploratory Study of Refining TNM-8 M1 Categories and Prognostic Subgroups Using Plasma EBV DNA for Previously Untreated De Novo Metastatic Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma.

(1) Background: NPC patients with de novo distant metastasis appears to be a heterogeneous group who demonstrate a wide range of survival, as suggested by growing evidence. Nevertheless, the current 8th edition of TNM staging (TNM-8) grouping all these patients into the M1 category is not able to identify their survival differences. We sought to identify any anatomic and non-anatomic subgroups in this study. (2) Methods: Sixty-nine patients with treatment-naive de novo M1 NPC (training cohort) were prospectively recruited from 2007 to 2018. We performed univariable and multivariable analyses (UVA and MVA) to explore anatomic distant metastasis factors, which were significantly prognostic of overall survival (OS). Recursive partitioning analysis (RPA) with the incorporation of significant factors from MVA was then performed to derive a new set of RPA stage groups with OS segregation (Set 1 Anatomic-RPA stage groups); another run of MVA was performed with the addition of pre-treatment plasma EBV DNA. A second-round RPA with significant prognostic factors of OS identified in this round of MVA was performed again to derive another set of stage groups (Set 2 Prognostic-RPA stage groups). Both sets were then validated externally with an independent validation cohort of 67 patients with distant relapses of their initially non-metastatic NPC (rM1) after radical treatment. The performance of models in survival segregation was evaluated by the Akaike information criterion (AIC) and concordance index (C-index) under 1000 bootstrapping samples for the validation cohort; (3) Results: The 3-year OS and median follow-up in the training cohort were 36.0% and 17.8 months, respectively. Co-existence of liver-bone metastases was the only significant prognostic factor of OS in the first round UVA and MVA. Set 1 RPA based on anatomic factors that subdivide the M1 category into two groups: M1a (absence of co-existing liver-bone metastases; median OS 28.1 months) and M1b (co-existing liver-bone metastases; median OS 19.2 months, p = 0.023). When pre-treatment plasma EBV DNA was also added, it became the only significant prognostic factor in UVA (p = 0.001) and MVA (p = 0.015), while co-existing liver-bone metastases was only significant in UVA. Set 2 RPA with the incorporation of pre-treatment plasma EBV DNA yielded good segregation (M1a: EBV DNA ≤ 2500 copies/mL and M1b: EBV DNA > 2500 copies/mL; median OS 44.2 and 19.7 months, respectively, p < 0.001). Set 2 Prognostic-RPA groups (AIC: 228.1 [95% CI: 194.8−251.8] is superior to Set 1 Anatomic-RPA groups (AIC: 278.5 [254.6−301.2]) in the OS prediction (p < 0.001). Set 2 RPA groups (C-index 0.59 [95% CI: 0.54−0.67]) also performed better prediction agreement in the validation cohort (vs. Set 1: C-index 0.47 [95% CI: 0.41−0.53]) (p < 0.001); (4) Conclusions: Our Anatomic-RPA stage groups yielded good segregation for de novo M1 NPC, and prognostication was further improved by incorporating plasma EBV DNA. These new RPA stage groups for M1 NPC can be applied to countries/regions regardless of whether reliable and sensitive plasma EBV DNA assays are available or not.

Refining TNM-8 M1 categories with anatomic subgroups for previously untreated de novo metastatic nasopharyngeal carcinoma.

PURPOSE: To propose a refined M1 classification in de novo metastatic nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) based on pooled data from two academic institutions. METHODS: Previously untreated de novo M1 NPC patients prospectively treated at The University of Hong Kong (N = 69) and Fujian Cancer Hospital (N = 114) between 2007 and 2016 were recruited and randomized in a 2:1 ratio to generate training (N = 120) and validation (N = 63) cohorts, respectively. Multivariable analysis (MVA) was performed for the training and validation cohorts to identify anatomic prognostic factors for overall survival (OS). Recursive partitioning analysis (RPA) was performed which incorporated the anatomic prognostic factors identified in the MVA to derive Anatomic-RPA groups which stratified OS in the training cohort, and were then validated in the validation cohort. RESULTS: Median follow-up for the training and validation cohorts was 27.2 and 30.2 months with 3-year OS of 51.6% and 51.1%, respectively. MVA revealed that co-existing liver-bone metastases was the only factor prognostic for OS in both the training and validation cohorts. Anatomic-RPA separated M1 disease into M1a (no co-existing liver-bone metastases) and M1b (co-existing liver-bone metastases) with median OS 39.5 and 23.7 months, respectively (p = 0.004) in the training cohort. RPA for the validation cohort also confirmed good segregation with co-existing liver-bone metastases with median OS 47.7 and 16.0 months, respectively (p = 0.008). CONCLUSION: Our proposal to subdivide de novo M1 NPC into M1a (no co-existing liver-bone metastases) vs. M1b (co-existing liver-bone metastases) provides better OS segregation.

Incidence and Demographics of Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma in Cheung Chau Island of Hong Kong-A Distinct Geographical Area With Minimal Residential Mobility and Restricted Public Healthcare Referral Network.

BACKGROUND: Nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) is endemic in Hong Kong with a skewed geographical and ethnic distribution. We performed an epidemiological study of NPC in Cheung Chau Island, a fishing village with very minimal residential mobility, and compared its demographics and survival with the rest of Hong Kong. METHODS: NPC data in Cheung Chau and non-Cheung Chau residents between 2006 and 2017 treated in our tertiary center were collected. The incidence, stage distribution, and mortality of Cheung Chau NPC residents were compared with those of their counterparts in the whole Hong Kong obtained from the Hong Kong Cancer Registry. Propensity score matching (PSM) was performed between Cheung Chau and non-Cheung Chau cases in a 1:4 ratio. Overall survival (OS), progression-free survival (PFS), and cancer-specific survival (CSS) were compared between these two cohorts by product limit estimation and log-rank tests. RESULTS: Sixty-one patients residing in Cheung Chau were identified between 2006 and 2017. There was a significantly higher NPC incidence (P < .001) but an insignificant difference in the mortality rate in Cheung Chau compared to the whole Hong Kong data. After PSM with 237 non-Cheung Chau patients, the Cheung Chau cohort revealed a stronger NPC family history (P < .001). However, there were no significant differences in OS (P = .170), PFS (P = .053), and CSS (P = .160) between these two cohorts. CONCLUSION: Our results revealed that Cheung Chau had a higher NPC incidence but similar survival outcomes compared to the whole of Hong Kong. Further prospective studies are warranted to verify this finding and to explore the possible underlying mechanisms.

Integrated palliative medicine in public oncology: a 10-year review.

OBJECTIVES: The rapid ageing population of Hong Kong has a high demand on oncology and palliative care (PC) service. This study was the first territory-wide assessment in Hong Kong to assess the palliative service coverage in patients with advanced cancer in the past decade. METHODS: Cancer deaths of all 43 public hospitals of Hong Kong were screened. Randomly selected 2800 cancer deaths formed a representative cohort in all seven service clusters of Hospital Authority at 4 time points (2006, 2009, 2012, 2015). Individual patient records were thoroughly reviewed. Predictors of PC coverage was evaluated in univariable and multivariable analyses. RESULTS: From 2006 to 2015, PC coverage improved steadily from 55.4% to 68.9% (p<0.001). Median time of referral to PC service to death was 25 days (IQR: 53). For duration of inpatient PC, the median time was 22 days (IQR: 44) and it was stable over the past 10 years. Median time of referral to outpatient service to death was 74 days (IQR: 144) and there was an improvement observed (p<0.05). The current system was highly heterogeneous that PC varied between 9.8% and 84.8% in different hospitals depending on the PC service infrastructure. Multivariable Cox model identified patients associated with lower PC coverage: male, <50, rapid disease deterioration and staying in hospitals without multidisciplinary team clinic and designated palliative bed support (all p<0.01). CONCLUSION: There was concrete achievement in palliative service development in the past decade. Heterogeneity and late service provision should be addressed in future.

Cost-Effectiveness of Anti-Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor Therapy Versus Bevacizumab in KRAS Wild-Type (WT), Pan-RAS WT, and Pan-RAS WT Left-Sided Metastatic Colorectal Cancer.

OBJECTIVES: We aimed to compare the economic value of chemotherapy plus anti-epidermal growth factor receptor (anti-EGFR) monoclonal antibody (mAb) against chemotherapy with bevacizumab (Bev, an anti-vascular endothelial growth factor mAb) as first-line treatment in KRAS wild-type (WT), pan-RAS WT and pan-RAS WT left-sided metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) patients from the Hong Kong societal perspective. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We developed Markov models and 10-year horizon to estimate costs, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of chemotherapy plus anti-EGFR therapy against chemotherapy plus Bev in KRAS WT, pan-RAS WT, and pan-RAS WT left-sided mCRC. We considered two times of the local gross domestic product per capita (GDPpc) as the willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold (2× GDPpc; US$97,832). RESULTS: Adding anti-EGFR mAb to chemotherapy provides additional 0.24 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.19-0.29), 0.32 (95% CI 0.27-0.37), and 0.57 (95% CI 0.49-0.63) QALY compared to adding Bev in KRAS WT, pan-RAS WT, and left-sided pan-RAS WT mCRC populations respectively. The corresponding ICER is US$106,847 (95% CI 87,806-134,523), US$88,565 (95% CI 75,678-105,871), US$76,537 (95% CI 67,794-87,917) per QALY gained, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Anti-EGFR therapy is more cost-effective than Bev as a first-line targeted therapy in left-sided pan-RAS WT and pan-RAS WT, with ICER

The Most Efficacious Induction Chemotherapy Regimen for Locoregionally Advanced Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma: A Network Meta-Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Induction chemotherapy (IC) followed by concurrent chemoradiotherapy (CCRT) for non-metastatic locoregionally advanced nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) has gained considerable attention. However, the most efficacious IC regimens remain investigational. We aimed to compare the survival benefits of all available IC regimens followed by CCRT in this network meta-analysis. METHODS: All randomized-controlled trials of CCRT with or without IC in non-metastatic locoregionally advanced NPC were included, with an overall nine trials of 2,705 patients counted in the analysis. CCRT alone was the reference category. Eight IC regimens followed by CCRT were analyzed: docetaxel + cisplatin (DC), gemcitabine + carboplatin + paclitaxel (GCP), gemcitabine + cisplatin (GP), mitomycin + epirubicin + cisplatin + fluorouracil + leucovorin (MEPFL), cisplatin + epirubicin + paclitaxel (PET), cisplatin + fluorouracil (PF), cisplatin + capecitabine (PX) and cisplatin + fluorouracil (PF), cisplatin + capecitabine (PX). Fixed-effects frequentist network meta-analysis models was applied and P-score was used to rank the treatments. RESULTS: DC, GP, and PX were the top three IC regimens with the highest probability of benefit on overall survival (OS). Their corresponding hazard ratios (HRs) (95% CIs) compared with CCRT alone were of 0.24 (0.08-0.73), 0.43 (0.24-0.77), and 0.54 (0.27-1.09) and the respective P-scores were 94%, 82%, and 68%. The first three IC regimens showing significantly improved progression-free survival (PFS) were PX, followed by GP and DC with respective HRs of 0.46 (0.24-0.88), 0.51 (0.34-0.77), and 0.49 (0.20-1.20), and P-scores of 82%, 78%, and 74%. Among the studies in the intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) era, GP and PX were the best performed IC regimens, whilst DC performed the best among non-IMRT studies. Doublet and gemcitabine-based IC regimens had better survival benefits compared to triplet and taxane-based IC regimens, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Given its consistent superiority in both OS and PFS, DC, GP, and PX ranked among the three most efficacious IC regimens in both the overall and subgroup analysis of IMRT or non-IMRT studies. Exploratory analyses suggested that doublet and gemcitabine-based IC regimens showed better survival performance.

First-Line Atezolizumab Plus Bevacizumab versus Sorafenib in Hepatocellular Carcinoma: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis.

BACKGROUND: The IMbrave 150 trial revealed that atezolizumab plus bevacizumab (atezo-bev) improves survival in patients with unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) (1 year survival rate: 67.2% vs. 54.6%). We assessed the cost-effectiveness of atezo-bev vs. sorafenib as first-line therapy in patients with unresectable HCC from the US payer perspective. METHODS: Using data from the IMbrave 150, we developed a Markov model to compare the lifetime cost and efficacy of atezo-bev as first-line systemic therapy in HCC with those of sorafenib. The main outcomes were life-years, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), lifetime costs, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). RESULTS: Atezo-bev demonstrated a gain of 0.44 QALYs, with an additional cost of USD 79,074. The ICER of atezo-bev was USD 179,729 per QALY when compared with sorafenib. The model was most sensitive to the overall survival hazard ratio and body weight. If we assumed that all patients at the end of the IMbrave 150 trial were cured of HCC, atezo-bev was cost-effective (ICER USD 53,854 per QALY). However, if all patients followed the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results data, the ICER of atezo-bev was USD 385,857 per QALY. Reducing the price of atezo-bev by 20% and 29% would satisfy the USD 150,000/QALY and 100,000/QALY willingness-to-pay threshold. Moreover, capping the duration of therapy to ≤12 months or reducing the dosage of bev to ≤10 mg/kg would render atezo-bev cost-effective. CONCLUSIONS: The long-term effectiveness of atezo-bev is a critical but uncertain determinant of its cost-effectiveness. Price reduction would favorably influence cost-effectiveness, even if long-term clinical outcomes were modest. Further studies to optimize the duration and dosage of therapy are warranted.

Integrative Palliative Care Service Model Improved End-of-Life Care and Overall Survival of Advanced Cancer Patients in Hong Kong: A Review of Ten-Year Territory-Wide Cohort.

Background: Integrated palliative care in oncology service has been widely implemented in Hong Kong since 2006. Aim: The study aimed to review its impact on end-of-life outcomes and overall survival (OS) of cancer patients, as well as its utilization of health care resources in the past 10 years. Design: Cancer deaths of all 43 public hospitals of Hong Kong were screened. Setting/Participants: Randomly selected 2800 cancer deaths formed a representative cohort in all seven service clusters of Hospital Authority at four time points (2006, 2009, 2012, and 2015). Individual patient records were thoroughly reviewed. Propensity score-matched (PSM) analysis was employed to compare the survival of patients. Results: Palliative care provision was associated with improved palliative care outcome, including more prescription of strong opioid, fewer cardiopulmonary resuscitations and intensive care unit admissions, and less futile chemotherapy usage in the end-of-life period (all p < 0.001). In the PSM analysis, the median OS in patients with palliative service (5.10 months, 95% confidence interval [CI] 4.52-5.68 months) was significantly better than those without palliative service (1.96 months, 95% CI 1.66-2.27 months). Patients in the palliative care group had more specialist clinic visits (p < 0.001) and longer hospital stay (p < 0.001) in the last six months of life, although the duration of last admission stay at acute general ward was shortened (p < 0.001). Conclusion: Our results suggested palliative care has played a role in the remarkable improvement in end-of-life outcomes and OS. However, current palliative care model relied heavily on hospital resources. Future work is needed to strengthen community care and to build up quality monitoring systems.

Comparison of efficacy and safety of three induction chemotherapy regimens with gemcitabine plus cisplatin (GP), cisplatin plus fluorouracil (PF) and cisplatin plus capecitabine (PX) for locoregionally advanced previously untreated nasopharyngeal carcinoma: A pooled analysis of two prospective studies.

PURPOSE: We compared, in this pooled analysis, the differences in efficacy and safety between three induction chemotherapy regimens including gemcitabine plus cisplatin (GP), cisplatin plus fluorouracil (PF) and cisplatin plus capecitabine (PX) in patients recruited into our two prospective studies for previously untreated locoregionally advanced nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC). METHODS: GP, PF or PX followed by radical concurrent chemoradiotherapy was given to patients with previously untreated locoregionally advanced (stage III to IVA) NPC prospectively recruited into our two prospective studies. The study endpoints included progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS), locoregional recurrence-free survival (LRFS), distant metastasis-free survival (DMFS), cancer-specific survival (CSS), and major acute and late treatment-related toxicities (grade ≥ 3). RESULTS: From 2006 to 2016, 278 patients were enrolled (84, 94 and 100 patients in GP, PF and PX group respectively). After a median follow-up of 80 months, the 3-year PFS, OS, LRFS, DMFS and CSS of the whole population were 78.7%, 88.1%, 84.9%, 80.9% and 89.8%, respectively. There were no significant differences in prespecified survival endpoints among GP, PF and PX in both stage III and stage IVA patients. GP had lower incidences of severe (grade ≥ 3) anemia and diarrhea in stage III patients, as well as severe anemia, dehydration, renal impairment and vomiting in stage IVA patients. The incidences of grade ≥ 3 late toxicities were similar among these 3 induction regimens. CONCLUSION: GP had similar efficacy and potentially fewer treatment-related complications compared with PF and PX as induction chemotherapy for previously untreated locoregionally advanced NPC.

Cost-effectiveness of Pembrolizumab as a Second-Line Therapy for Hepatocellular Carcinoma.

Importance: Immune checkpoint inhibitors have been approved for use as a second-line therapy for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients who previously received sorafenib. Pembrolizumab has shown substantial antitumor activity and a favorable toxicity profile as a second-line treatment of HCC. However, considering the high cost of pembrolizumab, there is a need to assess its value by considering both the clinical efficacy and cost. Objective: To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of pembrolizumab vs placebo as second-line therapy in patients with HCC from the US payer perspective. Design, Setting, and Participants: A Markov model was developed to compare the lifetime cost and efficacy of pembrolizumab as a second-line treatment of HCC with those of placebo using outcome data from the KEYNOTE-240 randomized placebo-controlled trial, which included 413 patients with advanced HCC previously treated with sorafenib and randomized patients to receive pembrolizumab plus best supportive care or placebo plus best supportive care in a 2:1 ratio. Main Outcomes and Measures: Life-years, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), lifetime costs, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) were estimated at a willingness-to-pay threshold of $150 000 per QALY. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed to account for the parameter of uncertainty. A cost-threshold analysis was also performed. The study was conducted from January 31 to July 29, 2020. Results: The base-case model found that treatment with pembrolizumab was associated with increased overall cost by $47 057 and improved effectiveness by 0.138 QALYs compared with placebo, leading to an ICER of $340 409 per QALY. The model was most sensitive to the hazard ratio of overall survival (range, 0.61-1.00), health utility of placebo (range, 0.59-0.93), price of pembrolizumab (range, $5531-$8297), and price of postprogression therapies (range, $5596-$7944 for pembrolizumab and $4770-$7156 for placebo). The ICER of pembrolizumab was larger than $150 000 per QALY in most of the sensitivity and subgroup analyses. The price of pembrolizumab needed to be reduced by 57.7% to $2925 per cycle to achieve cost-effectiveness. Conclusions and Relevance: The findings of this cost-effectiveness analysis suggest that, at its current price, pembrolizumab is not a cost-effective second-line therapy for HCC in the US, with a willingness-to-pay threshold of $150 000 per QALY.

Lymphopenia and Radiation Dose to Circulating Lymphocytes With Neoadjuvant Chemoradiation in Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma.

PURPOSE: We hypothesized that radiation-induced lymphopenia could be predicted by the effective dose to the circulating immune cells (EDIC) in advanced esophageal squamous cell carcinoma treated with trimodality therapy according to the Dutch ChemoRadiotherapy for Oesophageal cancer followed by Surgery Study (CROSS) trial regimen. To test this hypothesis, we examined the effect of EDIC on the degree of lymphocyte drop (lymphocyte nadir). METHODS AND MATERIALS: Patients with advanced nonmetastatic esophageal squamous cell carcinoma treated in a single tertiary cancer center from 2012 to 2018 were eligible for this study. All patients had to have a radiation therapy plan available for EDIC computation and received neoadjuvant chemoradiation according to the Dutch CROSS trial regimen before radical esophagectomy. The EDIC was calculated as a function of integral doses to the lung, heart, and total body with a verified mathematical model. The association between EDIC and lymphocyte nadir was studied, and the relationships of overall survival (OS) with lymphocyte nadir and EDIC were assessed using multivariable Cox regression model. RESULTS: This analysis included 92 eligible consecutive patients (77 men and 15 women). The mean EDIC was 2.8 Gy (range, 0.6-4.4). EDIC was significantly correlated with lymphocyte nadir (Spearman coefficient = -0.505; P < .01), and lymphocyte nadir was a significant independent factor for shorter OS (hazard ratio = 0.63; P < .001). Lymphocyte nadir was also the most significant factor in determining OS among other clinical parameters. Exploratory analysis showed significant OS differences between EDIC groups (<2, 2-4, and >4 Gy). The 2-year OS rates were 66.7%, 42.7%, and 16.7% for EDIC <2, 2 to 4, and >4 Gy, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: There was a significant correlation between radiation dose to circulating immune cells and lymphocyte nadir, which in turn affected OS in patients with advanced nonmetastatic esophageal squamous cell carcinoma treated by trimodality therapy.

Prognostication of Half-Life Clearance of Plasma EBV DNA in Previously Untreated Non-metastatic Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma Treated With Radical Intensity-Modulated Radiation Therapy.

Introduction: The prognostic role of plasma Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) DNA clearance when intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) and the 8th edition of American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC)/Union for International Cancer Control (UICC) TNM Staging Classification are fully implemented remains undeciphered. We investigated if its half-life clearance during radical treatment for non-metastatic nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) was an early prognosticator. Patients and methods: Patients with previously untreated non-metastatic NPC were prospectively treated with radical IMRT and concurrent chemotherapy +/- induction/adjuvant chemotherapy from 2014 to 2018. Their plasma EBV DNA was measured immediately before treatment followed by weekly schedules until 0 copy/ml in two consecutive measurements. Cox regression models were employed to identify prognostic factors. Results: Forty-five patients were prospectively recruited and analyzed. After a median follow-up of 30.3 months, 2 (4.5%), 1 (2.3%), and 6 (13.6%) patients experienced local, regional, and distant relapses, respectively. The median half-life clearance of plasma EBV DNA was 7.92 days. Those with half-life clearance of >15 days had a worse 3-years progression-free survival (PFS) (79.5 vs. 25.0%, p = 0.005), distant metastasis-free survival (DMFS) (85.0 vs. 31.3%, p = 0.009), and overall survival (OS) (91.3 vs. 75.0%, p = 0.024) when compared to those with a shorter half-life. Multivariable analyses demonstrated that only half-life (>15 days) was prognostic of DMFS [HR (95% CI): 4.91 (1.31; 18.39), p = 0.01] and OS [HR (95% CI): 5.24 (1.06; 26.05)] while half-life (>15 days) [HR (95% CI): 5.14 (1.28; 22.73), p = 0.02] and sum of pretreatment gross tumor volumes of the primary nasopharyngeal tumor and the radiologically positive neck nodes (GTV_P+N) [HR (95% CI): 1.01 (1.00; 1.03), p = 0.02] were prognostic of PFS. Conclusion: The half-life clearance of plasma EBV DNA was prognostic in non-metastatic NPC staged and treated in the contemporary era. Earlier biomarker surveillance during treatment should be considered. Clinical Trial Registration: This study has been registered with ClinicalTrials.gov (Identifier: NCT03830996).

Negative plasma Epstein-Barr virus DNA nasopharyngeal carcinoma in an endemic region and its influence on liquid biopsy screening programmes.

BACKGROUND: Epstein-Barr virus (EBV)-associated nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) in endemic regions may have undetectable plasma EBV DNA. METHODS: We prospectively recruited 518 patients with non-metastatic NPC and measured their pre-treatment plasma EBV DNA. The stage distribution and prognosis between pre-treatment plasma EBV DNA-negative (0-20 copies/ml) and EBV DNA-positive (>20 copies/ml) patients following radical treatment were compared. RESULTS: Seventy-eight patients (15.1%) were plasma EBV DNA-negative, and 62 in this subset (12.0%) had 0 copy/ml. Only 23/78 (29.5%) plasma EBV DNA-negative patients with advanced NPC (stage III-IVA) had strong EBV encoded RNA (EBER) positivity (score 3) in their tumours compared to 342/440 (77.7%) EBV DNA-positive patients of the same stages (p < 0.001). Though EBV DNA-negative patients had more early-stage disease (p < 0.001) and smaller volumes of the primary tumour and the positive neck nodes (p < 0.001), they had similar 5-year overall survival and cancer-specific survival to those EBV DNA-positive counterparts by stage. Similar results were also seen when plasma EBV DNA cut-off was set at 0 copy/ml. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with low-volume NPC may not be identified by plasma/serum tumour markers and caution should be taken in its utility as a screening tool for NPC even in endemic regions. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: Clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT02476669.

The addition of pretreatment plasma Epstein-Barr virus DNA into the eighth edition of nasopharyngeal cancer TNM stage classification.

The eighth edition of the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC)/Union for International Cancer Control (UICC) stage classification (TNM) for nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) was launched. It remains unknown if incorporation of nonanatomic factors into the stage classification would better predict survival. We prospectively recruited 518 patients with nonmetastatic NPC treated with radical intensity-modulated radiation therapy ± chemotherapy based on the eighth edition TNM. Recursive partitioning analysis (RPA) incorporating pretreatment plasma Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) DNA derived new stage groups. Multivariable analyses to calculate adjusted hazard ratios (AHRs) derived another set of stage groups. Five-year progression-free survival (PFS), overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) were: Stage I (PFS 100%, OS 90%, CSS 100%), II (PFS 88%, OS 84%, CSS 95%), III (PFS 84%, OS 84%, CSS 90%) and IVA (PFS 71%, OS 75%, CSS 80%) (p < 0.001, p = 0.066 and p = 0.002, respectively). RPA derived four new stages: RPA-I (T1-T4 N0-N2 & EBV DNA <500 copies per mL; PFS 94%, OS 89%, CSS 96%), RPA-II (T1-T4 N0-N2 & EBV DNA ≥500 copies per mL; PFS 80%, OS 83%, CSS 89%), RPA-III (T1-T2 N3; PFS 64%, OS 83%, CSS 83%) and RPA-IVA (T3-T4 N3; PFS 63%, OS 60% and CSS 68%) (all with p < 0.001). AHR using covariate adjustment also yielded a valid classification (I: T1-T2 N0-N2; II: T3-T4 N0-N2 or T1-T2 N3 and III: T3-T4 N3) (all with p < 0.001). However, RPA stages better predicted survival for PS and CSS after bootstrapping replications. Our RPA-based stage groups revealed better survival prediction compared to the eighth edition TNM and the AHR stage groups.